Football stuff to chew on…

[San Jose Bills Fan]

As most of you know, ProFootballFocus is one of a small group of NFL stats geeks who do some interesting number/crunching evaluations of NFL players (others in this niche are KC Joyner, Cold Hard Football Facts, and Football Outsiders).

 

We most recently discussed their work in the thread about "QB performance under pressure."

 

http://forums.twobil...under-pressure/

 

The "Fitz ranks poorly under pressure" topic generated a lot of controversy and criticism of PFF's methodology and analysis. So take this analysis on safeties for what it's worth.

 

PFF tracks how many tackles they make and miss… basically how good they are as tacklers.

 

http://www.profootba...kling-safeties/

 

"While Buffalo’s Donte Whitner has never been amongst the elite safeties we’ve graded (in fact he’s at the other end of the scale with far more regularity), the five missed tackles he notched this season was good enough for a ratio of just one miss in 27.20 attempts, 7th best in the league, and bettered by just Hill in terms of full-time starters. In fact, Whitner was comfortably the most prolific safety in the study in terms of tackle attempts, and his ratio becomes all the more impressive when you consider that he stuck his head in there more times than any other safety, and more than four times as often as all but one of the players ahead of him on the list.

 

Whitner is closely followed by his Buffalo teammate Jairus Byrd, who heads a trio of starting safeties that also includes Chicago’s Danieal Manning and the Broncos’ Brian Dawkins, all of whom finished with over 22 attempts per miss."

Edited May 20, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan

[DreReed83]

Is this a "Donte is a really really good Safety so we should re-sign him" thread in disguise?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Is this a "Donte is a really really good Safety so we should re-sign him" thread in disguise?

For a shallow person like yourself, maybe.

 

But most of the people on this board are plain-spoken and direct. Like them, I've made my feelings about Whitner known in the past. I'm not a big fan.

 

But by all means, take it however you'd like to.

 

In fact, take this thread as a personal challenge to yourself to come up with an intelligent response for once.

Edited May 20, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan

[DreReed83]

Ughhh. There's a difference between making 100 meaningless tackles and making 60 high impact tackles. Donte tends to make 100 meaningless tackles.

 

For a shallow person like yourself, maybe.

 

But most of the people on this board are plain-spoken and direct. Like them, I've made my feelings about Whitner known in the past. I'm not a big fan.

 

But by all means, take it however you'd like to.

 

In fact, take this thread as a personal challenge to yourself to come up with an intelligent response for once.

 

Yes because you know me so well....

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Ughhh. There's a difference between making 100 meaningless tackles and making 60 high impact tackles. Donte tends to make 100 meaningless tackles.

 

 

 

Yes because you know me so well....

Sorry for the insult, Dre. Really. Sometimes you really get under my craw and as you know, I'm not alone.

 

I agree that the numbers are a bit out of context… same as I felt about the other PFF study on quarterbacks under pressure. But in that case, I don't think they do justice to Fitz… in this case I think the stats flatter Whitner.

 

Funny how hard it is to be objective when you evaluate players you like, as opposed to players you don't like.

 

 

[DreReed83]

I know I get under peoples skins and most people here even have me on their "ignore list." I'm a very vocal person that's gonna express my thoughts whether you like it or not. Also, I just find it amusing in some ways. Like flyguy says. WHY SO SERIOUS? Some people need to lighten up.

Edited May 20, 2011 by DreReed83

[Scrappy]

 

In fact, take this thread as a personal challenge to yourself to come up with an intelligent response for once.

 

Should I Twitter my response about how far gone he is or did I do just enough by mentioning his Twitter actions indirectly, similiar to the game you played here?

Edited May 20, 2011 by Scrappy

[ColdBlueNorth]

As most of you know, ProFootballFocus is one of a small group of NFL stats geeks who do some interesting number/crunching evaluations of NFL players (others in this niche are KC Joyner, Cold Hard Football Facts, and Football Outsiders).

 

We most recently discussed their work in the thread about "QB performance under pressure."

 

http://forums.twobil...under-pressure/

 

The "Fitz ranks poorly under pressure" topic generated a lot of controversy and criticism of PFF's methodology and analysis. So take this analysis on safeties for what it's worth.

 

PFF tracks how many tackles they make and miss… basically how good they are as tacklers.

 

http://www.profootba...kling-safeties/

 

"While Buffalo’s Donte Whitner has never been amongst the elite safeties we’ve graded (in fact he’s at the other end of the scale with far more regularity), the five missed tackles he notched this season was good enough for a ratio of just one miss in 27.20 attempts, 7th best in the league, and bettered by just Hill in terms of full-time starters. In fact, Whitner was comfortably the most prolific safety in the study in terms of tackle attempts, and his ratio becomes all the more impressive when you consider that he stuck his head in there more times than any other safety, and more than four times as often as all but one of the players ahead of him on the list.

 

Whitner is closely followed by his Buffalo teammate Jairus Byrd, who heads a trio of starting safeties that also includes Chicago’s Danieal Manning and the Broncos’ Brian Dawkins, all of whom finished with over 22 attempts per miss."

 

I really enjoyed the amount of controversy the last PFW Fitz discussion generated SJBF, and although we all do not agree, it is subjects like these that get those opinions out in the open.

 

Once again too few stats to say that much about the player. That Whitner and Bryd were in on so many tackles says more to me about our front seven than about those players in particular. I don't dislike Donte, and I think he is pretty average as a safety, not big enough to be a real threat to lay the big hit on a running back or tightend, not fast enough and lacking the coverage skills to provide great support for our DBs. He is good, diagnoses plays, and is versatile, but not exceptional in any area.

 

When I watch him I always seem to catch him being dragged downfield for an additional 4-5 yards, or getting over late to defend a pass. He seems to be in the right place to make a tackle, but it seems to be once the play has already gained the needed yards rather than preventing the play. Maybe it is asking too much and he would be more successful with a better defensive line so he could come in clean, just not sure if he is a difference maker on defense. Hard to tell on a team that ranked 32nd in the league against the run...too much blame to go around.

[billsfan89]

If you watch Whitner you see that that might be a misleading stat. He is pretty bad in coverage on top of that. Also I don't think the guy wants to be in Buffalo anyway. Some team will offer a 6-7 million dollar a year offer for 4 years. Teams will get desperate for competent SS play.

 

But for Buffalo that's too much money and its not really worth it. We also have Wilson who is a better player in my opinion.

[San-O]

 

The "Fitz ranks poorly under pressure" topic generated a lot of controversy and criticism of PFF's methodology and analysis. So take this analysis on safeties for what it's worth.

 

 

 

I like these types of articles. THX

 

Regarding the prior topic "poorly under pressure", I don't think it generated that much controversy, just the same couple 4 or 5 guys that

kept saying the same things in an attempt to refute the stats and the article.

[Rockinon]

I really enjoyed the amount of controversy the last PFW Fitz discussion generated SJBF, and although we all do not agree, it is subjects like these that get those opinions out in the open.

 

Once again too few stats to say that much about the player. That Whitner and Bryd were in on so many tackles says more to me about our front seven than about those players in particular. I don't dislike Donte, and I think he is pretty average as a safety, not big enough to be a real threat to lay the big hit on a running back or tightend, not fast enough and lacking the coverage skills to provide great support for our DBs. He is good, diagnoses plays, and is versatile, but not exceptional in any area.

 

When I watch him I always seem to catch him being dragged downfield for an additional 4-5 yards, or getting over late to defend a pass. He seems to be in the right place to make a tackle, but it seems to be once the play has already gained the needed yards rather than preventing the play. Maybe it is asking too much and he would be more successful with a better defensive line so he could come in clean, just not sure if he is a difference maker on defense. Hard to tell on a team that ranked 32nd in the league against the run...too much blame to go around.

I think our rank as a run defense certainly supports the bolded part. Makes you wonder how having a solid defensive line will effect the performance of safeties and linebackers alike. One of the things that really irked me last year, was seeing 300lb offensive linemen breaking through and laying licks on our linebackers.

[NoSaint]

I think our rank as a run defense certainly supports the bolded part. Makes you wonder how having a solid defensive line will effect the performance of safeties and linebackers alike. One of the things that really irked me last year, was seeing 300lb offensive linemen breaking through and laying licks on our linebackers.

 

they might make it through a game or two healthy.

 

likewise our safeties might be a little better in coverage if they arent taking a beating trying to stop the run game.

[vincec]

I'd rather see an analysis of how well Whitner played against the pass. People claim that he has pretty good coverage skills (wasn't he used as a nickel back a couple of seasons ago due to injuries?), but he has very few ints or big pass breakups that I can remember. If all you needed your safety to do is make tackles, then you'd put a linebacker back there.

Edited May 21, 2011 by vincec

[thewildrabbit]

Ya gotta consider the defensive scheme he was put into and if the players in front of him are doing their jobs properly, not to mention if the coaches calling the defensive signals have a clue.

 

I know most want to condemn the guy because the brilliant Bills staff selected Whitner with an early #1 pick, Bills fans think he should be another Ronnie Lott because he was drafted so early. The fact remains that he was rated by every other team as a late second rounder.

 

He surely isn't a Bob Sanders- Troy Polamalu, but ya know what, he manages to make a ton of tackles that the 7 guys in front of him miss. Plus he went from a bad defense with Jauron to an utter crap defense under Gailey.

 

I gotta wonder if the fans would talk differently about him had he been a late 2nd or 3rd round pick as expectations run so high for first rounders... then consider Maybin-McCargo-JP Losman et al, and suddenly Whitner becomes one of the better first rounders recently drafted by this team

[Defend Greece]

I like whitner.... Unless he is in man coverage against a te.

I would like to see him come back but he was one of

Our highest pricex players so letting george take over would be okay too

[ThE BiScUiT]

Thanks for the Post.

 

I think all comments about Whinter, that were made were warranted. He's is not a COMPLETE bust, but does under perform for where he was selected, for all the reasons that were stated (over drafed, questionable defensive schemes, and the personel in front of him. We all know he can tackle, but the fact remains his he is an absolute liability in man to man coverage. He consistantly was burned on a week to week basis by opposing tight ends. Also, there were times when an opposing tight end would catch the ball in front of him 20 yards down the field, where Whitner would then give a "punishing" hit, and of coarse celebrate afterwards. I think this is the focal point of the frustration with him. I'm all for big hits, but they are pointless if you are getting beat every play and can not break up a receiption delivering them. With that being said, his best use then is in zone coverage or putting him up in the box to stop the run or blitz on passing situations. If he's still a Bill, hopefully Dave Wannsadt can put him in position where he can play to his strengths.

[Rockinon]

Nice topic San Jose. I'll stick with my Grizzly wintergreen to chew on though.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Nice topic San Jose. I'll stick with my Grizzly wintergreen to chew on though.

Yeah we're kind of gnawing on bones right now with no OTAs, minicamps, or free agency.

 

I've got a couple more juicy topic ideas I'll try to put up later on.

 

 

[Rockinon]

Yeah we're kind of gnawing on bones right now with no OTAs, minicamps, or free agency.

 

I've got a couple more juicy topic ideas I'll try to put up later on.

I've been mulling over some ideas too. Got some gardening to finish first though.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I like whitner.... Unless he is in man coverage against a te.

I would like to see him come back but he was one of

Our highest pricex players so letting george take over would be okay too

 

Bingo!! There is no question the guy can tackle, but he has proven to be a liability in coverage....especially versus TE's. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez made him look absolutely silly last season. Food for thought though....is his weakness in pass coverage due to him having to over-compensate for our poor run defense? Hmmmmmmm.