What the Bills can expect from the 2011 draft class?

[Jerry Jabber]

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/5/9/2162356/what-can-we-expect-from-the-bills-2011-draft-class

 

"Out of nine draft picks, only two actually started games (22%); six played in games (67%), two landed on IR (22%), and one player did not make the team (11%). Those nine players combined to play in 60 games out of a total combined 144 (42%). Injury affected playing time of three during the season (33%) Spiller, Carrington and Wang. By looking at those stats, it shows that the Bills 2010 draft class did not have much of an impact. (These stats do not include UDFAs)"

 

By looking at those stats, without the stats from the UDFA, it looks like the 2010 draft class didn't have any impact whatsoever. It looks like the UDFA's had the most impact.

 

"David Nelson: 15GP, 3 GS, 31 rec, 353 yds, 11.4 YPA and 3TDs.

Antonio Coleman: 8GP, 12T (7T, 5A)

Donald Jones: 15GP, 5GS, 18rec, 213 yds, 11.8 YPA and 1 TD.

Naaman Roosevelt: 6GP, 1 GS, 9 rec, 139 yds, 15.4 YPA, 0TD.

 

"With those four UDFAs, heres what the stats would like: Players that started in games: Five (38%); Players that played in games: Nine (69%); Games played 104 out of 208 (50%)."

 

"Does this mean that the 2011 draft class will experience the same numbers as the 2010 draft class? No, every year is different. But this year presents a different problem. With the NFL and the former NFLPA battling it out for a new CBA and with the current lock out going on, this affects all non-playoff teams that rely on the draft picks to make an impact. With the rookies not being able to attend any rookie camps, OTAs, mini-camp and training camp, this severely hampers the development of all Bills rookies."

 

This could be a very big problem for the Bills if the NFL & the players don't get their act together and get a new agreement worked out.

Edited May 9, 2011 by Jerry Jabber

[Stl Bills]

Don't think you can base what this year's guys will do based off the production of last years players. All you have to do to discount it is go back to 2009 where Wood, Levitre, and Byrd were all day 1 starters and good players. Byrd was even elected to the Pro Bowl as a Rookie.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Past results are no indicator of future failure.

[PromoTheRobot]

Past results are no indicator of future failure.

Call a medical professional if your erection lasts longer than 4 hours.

 

PTR

[John from Riverside]

What do I expect? Better defense

 

I look at this draft class and I see as many as 4 potential starters

 

Dareus - def starter

Williams - def starter (even if he is the nickle guy they play too much not to be the starter

Sheppard - probable starter next to Poz

Searcy - I am thinking backup to start

Hairston - Legit chance to start at RT

Rest of the guys....backup players and special teams to start

[mike oxhurtz]

Don't think you can base what this year's guys will do based off the production of last years players. All you have to do to discount it is go back to 2009 where Wood, Levitre, and Byrd were all day 1 starters and good players. Byrd was even elected to the Pro Bowl as a Rookie.

 

I think what the article is getting at is normally fans could expect the draftees to have an impact, have little or no impact, get hurt or land on IR, land on the practice squad or get cut. If the OTA's & camps start on time, that's what we can expect to see, but if not, then most of the draftees will be so far behind the learing curve, that they will have little or no impact. The only one I could see having an impact in that scenario is Dareus.

[Stl Bills]

I think what the article is getting at is normally fans could expect the draftees to have an impact, have little or no impact, get hurt or land on IR, land on the practice squad or get cut. If the OTA's & camps start on time, that's what we can expect to see, but if not, then most of the draftees will be so far behind the learing curve, that they will have little or no impact. The only one I could see having an impact in that scenario is Dareus.

Not me, I know what your saying but I could see Dareus, Williams, and Shepherd all playing a lot of snaps in the upcoming year. I could also see Johnny White making an impact if Fred or CJ get banged up during the season.

Edited May 11, 2011 by Stl Bills

[mike oxhurtz]

Not me, I know what your saying but I could see Dareus, Williams, and Shepherd all playing a lot of snaps in the upcoming year. I could also see Johnny White making an impact if Fred or CJ get banged up during the season.

 

If there's no new agreement until August or September, then at some point in the season, I could see Williams and Shepherd coming in and getting snaps, but it will be much harder for the rest of the group. Last year, the Bills had 4 UDFA's come in and have an impact (or a role on the team). If there's no agreement in place until later on in the year, I don't see that happening again.

[Green Lightning]

What do I expect? Better defense

 

I look at this draft class and I see as many as 4 potential starters

 

Dareus - def starter

Williams - def starter (even if he is the nickle guy they play too much not to be the starter

Sheppard - probable starter next to Poz

Searcy - I am thinking backup to start

Hairston - Legit chance to start at RT

Rest of the guys....backup players and special teams to start

 

Your take is just how I see it. You'll see Carrington, Troup, Batten, Moats and Spiller making much bigger contributions this year. Add to the mix Wannstache and I expect our D to be a lot better.

[John from Riverside]

Your take is just how I see it. You'll see Carrington, Troup, Batten, Moats and Spiller making much bigger contributions this year. Add to the mix Wannstache and I expect our D to be a lot better.

 

I actually feel better about this next year then I have in a while over all about the team......and I could see this team going 9-7 or 10-6

 

 

- This is a team that despite being horribly undertalented, going through a extreme defense change, and new coaching staff that battled nearly every game and had a chance to win. That means that the team doesn't have a losing mentality and had heart...they just didn't have the talent.

 

- This team got hit with injuries so badly on the offensive line and couple that with players who had injuries from the year before that were not 100 percent....(Wood, Bell).....and now they are somewhat solidified and brought in a pretty darn good player in Hairston at OT....the knock on Hairston is he has the ability to play LT.....but his weight keeps him from being ideal at that position.....so he could start at RT in my opinion

 

- Set at running back....no Marshawn Lynch drama in the offseason

 

- An entrenched starter at QB getting all the 1st team reps

 

- Young offensive receivers coming into their own last year......Easley back (by the way Easley COULD have played last year but they decided to IR him because they wanted him to be 100 percent healthy THIS season....they knew they were going to have a losing team last year)

 

- Still need a Tight End

 

Then of course there is the defensive side of the ball.....the single biggest problem that this team had was not being able to stop the run, create long down and distance so they could rush the passer, creating turnovers, and getting itself off the field. Nix knew this going into this draft....he also knew that this was a strong draft for defensive players.

 

- Marcel is brought in as a run stopper.....but I dont think people actually realize what a player like this does for a defense overall.....a player in that spot on the line makes the DL next to him better.....he makes the linebackers better that patrol behind him....he makes the secondary better because they have confidence knowing they are not going to see a ball carrier flash in front of them in their area of responsibility because he broke through the line and the second level. You just dont play as aggressively when you are worried about giving up a home run hit.....you play "safer" which causes offenses to just pick up first downs till you either make the big mistake or they run into the end zone.....this wears our your defense and keeps your offense on the sideline.

 

- I saw a video clip of Michael Huff and Aaron Willaims together......a couple of things to point out....first...Michael Huff is a safety and second....Williams makes him look SMALL. Michael Williams is a BIG hard hitting, hard tackling corner......he reminds me a lot of a larger Antwan Winfield (who was one of my favorite players when he was here) he does not tackle as well as winfield....but he has that same type of mentality "if you flash in front of me I am gonna make you pay"

 

- There is some debate as to whether Sheppard was the best ILB in this draft class.....but I think that the bills liked him not only for his size and side line to side line speed......but for his INSTINCTS.....a linebacker has to have good football instincts on where a ball is going or the rest of his stats dont mean anything. While he has all the height/weight/speed measurables I think the bills were looking further then that on this kid.

 

- The LB White strikes me as someone who will get his named called out a lot for special teams plays.....he looks rugged to me.....a "Im gonna prove everyone wrong" type

 

 

The bills needed this influx of defensive talent to go with what they did LAST year.......look for thim to go from last to probably middle of the pack defensively

[Jerry Jabber]

Here's the results from the 2010 regular season:

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=BUF&season=2010&seasonType=REG

 

Regular Season

 

1 Sep 12 MIA 15 @ BUF 10

2 Sep 19 BUF 7 @ GB 34

3 Sep 26 BUF 30 @ NE 38

4 Oct 03 NYJ 38 @ BUF 14

5 Oct 10 JAC 36 @ BUF 26

7 Oct 24 BUF 34 @ BAL 37

9 Nov 07 CHI 22 @ BUF 19

10 Nov 14 DET 12 @ BUF 14

11 Nov 21 BUF 49 @ CIN 31

12 Nov 28 PIT 19 @ BUF 16

13 Dec 05 BUF 14 @ MIN 38

14 Dec 12 CLE 6 @ BUF 13

15 Dec 19 BUF 17 @ MIA 14

16 Dec 26 NE 34 @ BUF 3

17 Jan 02 BUF 7 @ NYJ 38

 

Out of the 12 losses, there are five games in which the Bills could have won if they had a better defense and better players all around:

1 Sep 12 MIA 15 @ BUF 10

3 Sep 26 BUF 30 @ NE 38

7 Oct 24 BUF 34 @ BAL 37

9 Nov 07 CHI 22 @ BUF 19

12 Nov 28 PIT 19 @ BUF 16

 

With a better defense to give Fitz & the offense more time on the field and the D being able to stop more opponents, IMO I can see the Bills starting to win close games like the five I mentioned.

[NewEra]

I actually feel better about this next year then I have in a while over all about the team......and I could see this team going 9-7 or 10-6

 

 

- This is a team that despite being horribly undertalented, going through a extreme defense change, and new coaching staff that battled nearly every game and had a chance to win. That means that the team doesn't have a losing mentality and had heart...they just didn't have the talent.

 

- This team got hit with injuries so badly on the offensive line and couple that with players who had injuries from the year before that were not 100 percent....(Wood, Bell).....and now they are somewhat solidified and brought in a pretty darn good player in Hairston at OT....the knock on Hairston is he has the ability to play LT.....but his weight keeps him from being ideal at that position.....so he could start at RT in my opinion

 

- Set at running back....no Marshawn Lynch drama in the offseason

 

- An entrenched starter at QB getting all the 1st team reps

 

- Young offensive receivers coming into their own last year......Easley back (by the way Easley COULD have played last year but they decided to IR him because they wanted him to be 100 percent healthy THIS season....they knew they were going to have a losing team last year)

 

- Still need a Tight End

 

Then of course there is the defensive side of the ball.....the single biggest problem that this team had was not being able to stop the run, create long down and distance so they could rush the passer, creating turnovers, and getting itself off the field. Nix knew this going into this draft....he also knew that this was a strong draft for defensive players.

 

- Marcel is brought in as a run stopper.....but I dont think people actually realize what a player like this does for a defense overall.....a player in that spot on the line makes the DL next to him better.....he makes the linebackers better that patrol behind him....he makes the secondary better because they have confidence knowing they are not going to see a ball carrier flash in front of them in their area of responsibility because he broke through the line and the second level. You just dont play as aggressively when you are worried about giving up a home run hit.....you play "safer" which causes offenses to just pick up first downs till you either make the big mistake or they run into the end zone.....this wears our your defense and keeps your offense on the sideline.

 

- I saw a video clip of Michael Huff and Aaron Willaims together......a couple of things to point out....first...Michael Huff is a safety and second....Williams makes him look SMALL. Michael Williams is a BIG hard hitting, hard tackling corner......he reminds me a lot of a larger Antwan Winfield (who was one of my favorite players when he was here) he does not tackle as well as winfield....but he has that same type of mentality "if you flash in front of me I am gonna make you pay"

 

- There is some debate as to whether Sheppard was the best ILB in this draft class.....but I think that the bills liked him not only for his size and side line to side line speed......but for his INSTINCTS.....a linebacker has to have good football instincts on where a ball is going or the rest of his stats dont mean anything. While he has all the height/weight/speed measurables I think the bills were looking further then that on this kid.

 

- The LB White strikes me as someone who will get his named called out a lot for special teams plays.....he looks rugged to me.....a "Im gonna prove everyone wrong" type

 

 

The bills needed this influx of defensive talent to go with what they did LAST year.......look for thim to go from last to probably middle of the pack defensively

Nice post John. Spot on with your assessment, although I can't see this team winning 9 games with our schedule. Sure it's possible, but very unlikely with our CURRENT roster. If we resign poz florence and whitner, while adding a Zach Miller or Kevin Boss and maybe a starting caliber OT, it could definitely become a reality.

 

I don't think we're gonna go after a tackle. I think they like pears, for whatever reason. We also have Wrotto, while unspectacular, played decent for a guy thrown directly into the starting lineup with little time to get accustomed to the playbill and his line mates. Hairston and Wang, are two young guys with some upside. If one ofthem pans out as a starting caliber player, we MAY be set at RT and maybe even LT if both excel. Will Bell take the next step forward? Will urbik play as well as we all hope? Will wood be a stud center and Levitre grow even more a our best OL last year? If these question all answer in our favor, we could he set on the oline. If not, 9-7 could be impossible.

 

Will we resign Florence? If we do, our CB stable is deep and talented. If McGee can only miss a couple games and Mckelvin can show consistency, we MAY not need him so much if Williams can step in and show he's a bonafide starter. Big ifs. But will go a long way in determining how good we will be.

 

I love our DL. I fully expect Dareus and Williams to thrive next to each other and make everyone on defense better. I pray that either or both, troupe and carrington can develeop into the players nix thinks they can be. If they do, them along with Edwards gives us 5 solid DL. Jasper is an intriguing individual. Could be nothing, could be special. If special, our DL is special as well. More ifs. But these ifs are franchise changers.

 

OLB- We all saw OLB as one of, if not our biggest need. Buddy disagrees. Apparantly he really likes what we have in Moats, Merriman, Kelsey, Batten and Coleman. ALL of them are big ifs. Let's hope 2 of them pan out.

 

ILB- if we can resign poz, I think we're set. I LOVE the Sheppard pick. He's instinctual, has good size and agility, is a solid tackler and can hopefully be the vocal leader this defense can rally around. Having Davis as a backup for when poz gets hurt is awesome. He has experience and is probably one of the better backups in the league.

 

WR, RB- I love the guys we have. With another year of experience, I only see them getting better.

 

Fitz- gotta love what he did last year. This is the biggest year of his life. Contract year and is, for the first time in his career, the unquestioned leader of his team. He has so much riding on this year it's scary. Will he make 2 million dollars as a backup or will he be able to secure himself a lengthy multi-year deal that pays him a boatload? As important as our defense will be this year in determining our success, Fitz is the key to us winning 2 games or 9 games. IMO obviously.

 

If the majority of these IFs can turn into truths, the future of our team will he much brighter. Go bills!!!