Bandit's Mock

[thebandit27]

I don’t know why, but I always feel compelled to do a mock draft every year; as though I feel the need to put my opinion on the record as for what players I think will be drafted at each point of the first round. Some of you appreciate it, some of you don't, most of you could care less. Regardless, here’s this year’s version. Keep in mind that this is only what I believe will happen, and not necessarily what I would do in each team’s shoes:

 

1. Carolina – Cam Newton – QB/Auburn

 

If you’re picking at #1 overall, it’s likely because you don’t have a good QB right now. With the amount of guaranteed money the first overall pick will get absent a rookie wage scale, it needs to be either a QB, DE, or OT. Newton has the biggest upside of any player in the draft, which makes him the pick.

 

2. Denver – Marcel Dareus – DT/Alabama

 

No question that the Broncos need help defensively, and there's sure to be a lot to choose from at No. 2 overall: lockdown CB, impact pass-rusher, and run-stuffer. Dareus probably helps them fill a few of those needs with one player.

 

3. Buffalo – Von Miller – LB/Texas A&M

 

No college player had more success rushing the passer over the last 2 seasons, and that’s certainly an area that Buffalo needs to improve. They also need a run-stuffing defensive lineman, but the depth of this class will allow them to address that need in round 2.

 

4. Cincinnati – A.J. Green – WR/Georgia

 

Bengals’ Owner Mike Brown loves the offensive skill position players, and Green is the best of the bunch. He also fills a need with Chad Ochocinco’s future with the team in doubt and T-O’s likely free agency departure. They could also look to trade back into the end of the first round for a QB.

 

5. Arizona – Blaine Gabbert – QB/Missouri

 

They insist that they’re not interested in Gabbert, which makes me 99% sure that they are. This pick could also be Patrick Peterson if (a) the Cardinals decide to address their back 7, (b) the 49ers offer them a bundle to move up, or © Houston decides to make a move.

 

6. Cleveland – Robert Quinn – DE/North Carolina

 

Defensive linemen will be the order of the day, with the team making the switch to a 4-3 alignment. This pick is a toss-up between Quinn and Nick Fairley, but I’ve heard that GM Tom Heckert prefers Quinn, so that’s my pick.

 

7. San Francisco – Patrick Peterson – CB/LSU

 

How serendipitous for the ‘niners that they manage to land the player they covet in the 7 slot. Peterson could make the overpaid Nate Clements expendable.

 

8. Tennessee – Nick Fairley – DT/Auburn

 

The scuttlebutt around the league is that the Titans’ coaching staff is split on this pick; with the defensive coaches pining for Fairley, and the offensive coaches coveting—believe it or not—TCU’s Andy Dalton. For now, I’m giving them Fairley because I think he’s rated higher.

 

9. Dallas – Tyron Smith – OT/USC

 

I’m torn on this one. I can see Smith or J.J. Watt going with this pick, but again I’m deferring to the depth factor on this one. There are more good 5-technique DEs in this draft than OTs, so the raw-but-uber-talented Smith gets the nod here.

 

10. Washington – Jake Locker – QB/Washington

 

First shocker of the draft? Supposedly Mike Shanahan loves Locker, who he believes has Elway-like potential. If you’ve got the contract and confidence Shanahan does, you can take the risk.

 

11. Houston – J.J. Watt – DE/Wisconsin

 

I don’t think there’s any debate that Houston will go defense with this pick, but they’ll have to choose between Watt, Cal’s Cam Jordan, Prince Amukamara, or an OLB for their 3-4 alignment. I’m sending Watt their way, because new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips puts a premium on controlling the line of scrimmage, and that’s what Watt does as well as any DE in this class.

 

12. Minnesota – Da’Quan Bowers – DE/Clemson

 

Injury concern or not, remember that Bowers was rated as the top overall prospect on many boards just 2 months ago. I can’t see a guy like that falling too far. The Vikings need a pass rusher opposite Jared Allen, so need and value collide in this slot.

 

13. Detroit – Prince Amukamara – CB/Nebraska

 

Never look a gift horse in the mouth, right Jim Schwartz? The Lions need a shutdown corner, and Prince’s man cover skills are in the elite cateogory.

 

14. St. Louis – Julio Jones – WR/Alabama

 

I’m shocked I have him falling this far, but that’s just how it worked out when I put this together. Sam Bradford would be thrilled to have an explosive, physical talent like Jones in his arsenal.

 

15. Miami – Ryan Mallett – QB/Arkansas

 

Whoa, really? Yep. I know there’s concerns with character, mobility, etc., but in the end, I think talent wins out, and Mallett has a cannon-arm and great touch. For a coach fighting for his job, an upgrade at QB could be the recipe that keeps him employed.

 

16. Jacksonville – Ryan Kerrigan – DE/Purdue

 

Conventional wisdom told me to give the Jags Cameron Jordan, but I just couldn’t do it. This team needs an explosive pass rusher, and Kerrigan’s 33.5 career sacks just make me think he’s a better fit for this team.

 

17. New England – Anthony Castonzo – OT/Boston College

 

Matt Light is a free agent, Logan Mankins is a free agent, and Castonzo is a highly-versatile lineman with a nasty streak. I expect him to start at RT for New England as a rookie, with Sebastian Vollmer moving to the left side.

 

18. San Diego – Cameron Jordan – DE/California

 

Wow, did they get lucky. A top-15 talent, Jordan would be an immediate replacement at LDE for Jacques Cesaire, who was the weak-link on an otherwise stout defensive line.

 

19. NY Giants – Mike Pouncey – OG/Florida

 

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if someone trades up to beat them to Pouncey, the draft’s top interior offensive lineman. However, if he’s still around, he’d provide youth and flexibility to an aging and ineffective unit.

 

20. Tampa Bay – Aldon Smith – DE/Missouri

 

The upstart Buccaneers could really use some help in their pass rush, where DE Styles G. White lead the team with 4.5 sacks. Smith had a difficult Junior season due to injury and inconsistency, but is loaded with upside.

 

21. Kansas City – Gabe Carimi – OT/Wisconsin

 

Carimi is the best run-blocking tackle in the draft, and is a prototype RT that could compliment Brandon Albert for KC. They could also make a play for a pass rusher or grab Baylor’s Phil Taylor at this spot.

 

22. Indianapolis – Derek Sherrod – OT/Mississippi State

 

I originally had this pick slated as Nate Solder, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that Bill Polian will want an OT that’s ready to start from day one. While Solder is bigger and a better athlete, Sherrod has more experience at OT under his belt, and that makes him the likelier choice.

 

23. Philadelphia – Jimmy Smith – CB/Colorado

 

They have a revolving door at CB opposite Asante Samuel, and something needs to be done about it. I could also see an offensive lineman picked at this spot, and my thought would be that they could go with Baylor’s Danny Watkins in a surprise move.

 

24. New Orleans – Corey Liuget – DT/Illinois

 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade-down or an OLB at this spot, but an interior presence to compliment Sedrick Ellis would make their entire defense better. Luiget is an ideal fit for a 3-technique DT.

 

25. (TRADE from Seattle) Cincinnati – Christian Ponder – QB/Florida State

 

This is where the Bengals make their move. Ponder is a fast-riser and a player that likely won’t make it out of round 1. With Carson Palmer reportedly serious about never playing for Cinci again, Ponder stands a shot at starting as a rookie.

 

26. Baltimore – Muhammad Wilkerson – DT/Temple

 

GM Ozzie Newsome is a best-player-available kind of guy, and this pick could go in any direction. However, I think that the versatility and athleticism offered by Wilkerson would be a perfect match for Baltimore’s attacking defense.

 

27. Atlanta – Cameron Heyward – DE/Ohio State

 

The Falcons desperately need a pass rusher to supplement/replace John Abraham. Heyward is a guy that many GMs believe could’ve gone higher if not for a bowl-game injury that left him unable to workout during draft prep. I could also see Atlanta pulling the trigger on a WR here.

 

28. (TRADE from New England) Tennessee – Andy Dalton – QB/TCU

 

With Ponder off the board, and too many QB-needy teams picking before their slot in round 2, Tennessee is forced to make a move for Dalton, the player they thought about taking at No. 8 overall. New England once again pockets a future first-rounder, which they’ll undoubtedly trade away again.

 

29. Chicago – Nate Solder – OT/Colorado

 

From a pure ability standpoint, Solder has as much upside as any OT in the class. He is massive (6’8”), and has the footwork expected of a former TE. With a little refinement, he could be a key cog in Mike Tice’s re-building of the Bears’ offensive line.

 

30. New York Jets – Akeem Ayers – LB/UCLA

 

For having such a great defense, the Jets’ pass rush is sorely lacking. Ayers is a good athlete with the ability to blitz and cover, which Rex Ryan can definitely make use of.

 

31. Pittsburgh – Phil Taylor – DT/Baylor

 

Casey Hampton isn’t getting any younger, and GM Kevin Colbert loves to pick the best player available. Baylor will play immediately as part of a rotation, and eventually take over the nose tackle spot in their 3-4 alignment. If they go for need, Texas CB Aaron Williams is a possibility.

 

32. Green Bay – Mark Ingram – RB/Alabama

 

The playoff performance of James Starks notwithstanding, the Packers definitely need to upgrade a backfield that was both injury-plagued and downright ineffective in 2010. The former Heisman winner falls, but falls to a good place with the Superbowl Champs.

 

Well, that’s it. Feel free to comment, disagree, muse, whatever. Just don’t be too harsh, I’m still getting over last night’s Sabres loss.

[Pete]

well thought out and well done

[Coach Tuesday]

It's a good job there, Bandit. I still think the Bills trade back into Rd. 1 to grab Kaepernick, but under your scenario he lasts until Rd. 2 (in which case, the Raiders will trade up to get New England's pick and take him).

[Slayers]

15. Miami – Ryan Mallett – QB/Arkansas

 

Whoa, really? Yep. I know there’s concerns with character, mobility, etc., but in the end, I think talent wins out, and Mallett has a cannon-arm and great touch. For a coach fighting for his job, an upgrade at QB could be the recipe that keeps him employed.

 

Being a Michigan man I would love this would remind me of the college days when Henne and Mallett were fighting it out to start at the Maze and blue

[John from Riverside]

Great mock....still leaves Andy Dalton on the board for the 2nd round

[thebandit27]

well thought out and well done

 

Thank you sir.

 

It's a good job there, Bandit. I still think the Bills trade back into Rd. 1 to grab Kaepernick, but under your scenario he lasts until Rd. 2 (in which case, the Raiders will trade up to get New England's pick and take him).

 

Could happen...I could easily see Buffalo trying to jump to Chicago or the Jets' spot to land Kaepernick.

 

Being a Michigan man I would love this would remind me of the college days when Henne and Mallett were fighting it out to start at the Maze and blue

 

Truth be told, that hadn't even occurred to me until you mentioned it.

 

Great mock....still leaves Andy Dalton on the board for the 2nd round

 

Appreciate the kind words, but:

 

28. (TRADE from New England) Tennessee – Andy Dalton – QB/TCU

 

With Ponder off the board, and too many QB-needy teams picking before their slot in round 2, Tennessee is forced to make a move for Dalton, the player they thought about taking at No. 8 overall. New England once again pockets a future first-rounder, which they’ll undoubtedly trade away again.

[John from Riverside]

ugh.....sorry missed that

[1billsfan]

A few thoughts...

 

The Bengals have no Plan B and would take Gabbert if he's there.IMO, they have too many needs to be trading back into rd 1 and won't pay 2 rookies rd 1 money. They can get a quality receiver in rd 2 like Little from NC.

 

The Pats are not leaving round one without a pass rusher and would probably take Heyward or Jordan at #17.

 

The Seahawks stay at #25 and pick a QB. They say they don't need one, but that's because they don't want someone dropping ahead of them to take a QB.

[thebandit27]

The Bengals have no Plan B and would take Gabbert if he's there.IMO, they have too many needs to be trading back into rd 1 and won't pay 2 rookies rd 1 money. They can get a quality receiver in rd 2 like Little from NC.

 

Interesting take, and yes, the Bengals are historically frugal. However, my impression is that they aren't particularly smitten with Gabbert, but rather prefer both Ponder and Dalton.

 

As for 2nd round WRs, you're probably looking more towards Jon Baldwin, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Titus Young, or Jerel Jernigan. I think Little is more in the 4th round area.

 

The Pats are not leaving round one without a pass rusher and would probably take Heyward or Jordan at #17.

 

I too think that the Pats could use a pass rusher, so I thought about giving them Aldon Smith. However, I think that the defensive depth is greater than the OL depth, so that makes me think they'll go that route at 17. I was a bit confused by your statement, since Heyward and Jordan are more run-stuffing DEs than pass rushers, but nevertheless I see your point. If they want a pass rusher, they could grab Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, or Jabaal Sheard at either 28 or 33. And as we've talked about, the 5-technique class is very deep, so there's always the chance they nab a guy like Christian Ballard or Adrian Clayborn at one of those spots as well.

 

Just as a matter of housecleaning, I had them taking Justin Houston at 33.

 

The Seahawks stay at #25 and pick a QB. They say they don't need one, but that's because they don't want someone dropping ahead of them to take a QB.

 

Could happen, but more and more I've been hearing that they want to trade out of that spot. That may just be pre-draft crappola, but right now I'm buying it. With the # of teams that want to move up for QBs, they may be able to net a pretty solid haul by moving down.

[1billsfan]

Interesting take, and yes, the Bengals are historically frugal. However, my impression is that they aren't particularly smitten with Gabbert, but rather prefer both Ponder and Dalton.

 

As for 2nd round WRs, you're probably looking more towards Jon Baldwin, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Titus Young, or Jerel Jernigan. I think Little is more in the 4th round area.

 

 

 

I too think that the Pats could use a pass rusher, so I thought about giving them Aldon Smith. However, I think that the defensive depth is greater than the OL depth, so that makes me think they'll go that route at 17. I was a bit confused by your statement, since Heyward and Jordan are more run-stuffing DEs than pass rushers, but nevertheless I see your point. If they want a pass rusher, they could grab Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, or Jabaal Sheard at either 28 or 33. And as we've talked about, the 5-technique class is very deep, so there's always the chance they nab a guy like Christian Ballard or Adrian Clayborn at one of those spots as well.

 

Just as a matter of housecleaning, I had them taking Justin Houston at 33.

 

 

 

Could happen, but more and more I've been hearing that they want to trade out of that spot. That may just be pre-draft crappola, but right now I'm buying it. With the # of teams that want to move up for QBs, they may be able to net a pretty solid haul by moving down.

 

 

Nice to see your one last mock. It's amazing that the mock stuff is over now and it's finally go time. Man oh man, am I excited for tomorrow!

[Wagon Circler]

You have Sherrod and Phil Taylor going in round 1. Those are my second round boys. Jake Locker anyone?