44 years and 48 picks (ranking the Bills' #1 picks)

[st. pete gogolak]

In the 44 years since the first combined NFL-AFL draft in 1967, the Bills have had 48 first round picks. Here's my rankings with the occasional comment:

 

1) Bruce Smith '85

2) O.J. Simpson '69

3) Jim Kelly (2) '83

4) Joe DeLamielure (2) '73

5) Will Wolford (2) '86

6) Jim Richter '80

7) Antoine Winfield '99

8) Eric Moulds '96

9) Shane Conlan '87

10)Jerry Butler (2) '78 (injuries cut short what could have been a Hall of Fame career)

11)Reuben Brown '95

12)Henry Jones '91

13)Nate Clements '01

14)John Fina '92

15)Derrick Burroughs (2) '85 (injuries cut short promising career)

16)Lee Evans '04

17)Ronnie Harmon '06 (great work for San Diego after he left the Bills)

18)Willis MaGahee '03

19)Mario Clark '76

20)Thomas Smith '93

21)Haven Moses '68 (stuck around for a long time, put up decent numbers with the Broncos)

22)Antoine Smith '97

23)Jeff Burris '94

24)Donte Whitner '06

25)Paul Seymour '73

26)Eric Wood (2) '09 (mostly on potential)

27)Marshawn Lynch '07

28)C.J. Spiller '10 (all on potential)

29)J.D. Hill '71 (should have had a better career)

30)Leodis McKelvin (mostly on potential)

31)John Pitts '67

32)Tom Cousineau '79 (only #1 pick never to play a down with the Bills)

33)Greg Bell '84 (starting to move into bust territory)

34)J.D. Williams '90

35)Terry Miller '78 (one good year and poof)

36)Mike Williams '02

37)Walt Patulski '72

38)Tom Ruud '75

39)Erik Flowers '00

40)Reuben Gant '74

41)J.P. Losman (2) '04

42)Tony Hunter '83

43)Al Cowlings '70

44)John McCargo (2) '06

45)Perry Tuttle '82

46)Booker Moore '81 (maybe unfair because of the Guillan-Barre)

47)Phil Dokes '77

48)Aaron Maybin '09

 

Suspicions confirmed - 11 DB's selectly #1, more than any other position; 9 RB's, only 2 QB's (none with the Bills'

first selection); pretty good luck selecting OL (with exception of M. Williams) and WR's. No luck picking TE.

 

Hopefully, this Thursday will turn the page on the recent disasters and start a new chapter with some competent selections.

[Dragonborn10]

Not bad but Conlan was a fan favorite but terribly overrated LB - he wouldn't make my top 15. Reuben Brown was undervalued by the same fan base but was a 9 time Pro Bowl selection by his peers and 4 time All-Pro. He should be behind only the HOF's Bruce, Kelly, Simpson, and DeLamielure.

Edited April 24, 2011 by Dadonkadonk

[mrags]

I think some of the new guys were rated too high. Whitner, Spiller and Wood on potential. We know nothing yet at this point. I might move OJ to top spot and Jim and then Bruce. Jim probably meant more to the organization then Bruce did and OJ (regardless of what he is accused of or probably did off the field) is one of the best running backs in the history of the game.

[/dev/null]

39)Erik Flowers '00

 

IMO the worst draft pick in Bills history

 

Is 39 your ranking or the number of downs played for the Bills?

[BiggieScooby]

It helps when you draft #1 overall. Bottom-line is the higher you draft the higher probability you have of knocking the pick out of the fing park!

[Orton's Arm]

Suspicions confirmed - 11 DB's selectly #1, more than any other position; 9 RB's, only 2 QB's (none with the Bills'

first selection); pretty good luck selecting OL (with exception of M. Williams) and WR's. No luck picking TE.

 

Hopefully, this Thursday will turn the page on the recent disasters and start a new chapter with some competent selections.

Great post! The fact this organization drafted 11 DBs, 9 RBs, and only 2 QBs in the first round speaks volumes. (And goes a long way toward explaining the Bills' general lack of success over the last 30+ years.)

 

One minor tweak I'd suggest to your post is to list the position each listed player played. Some of the names on the list didn't really ring any bells, especially not for the guys drafted decades ago. Listing each player's position would have the added advantage of making it easy to scan the list and count (for example) the number of OTs or OL the Bills drafted during the period you examined.

 

One thing I noticed was how slim the pickings became after the top-10 or top-12 rated picks. If John Fina truly was the 14th best first round pick in the last 44 drafts, that's pretty sad. I remember Marv saying that the Bills employed a player rating service to evaluate their own and other teams' players. According to that service, Fina was roughly the 20th or 22nd-best starting LT in the league while he was playing. (I don't recall his exact rank.) But looking a little further down your list, it's hard to find anyone who was definitively better. For example, you rated Willis McGahee the 18th-best first round pick; and I for one don't think he was any better of an acquisition than Fina had been. At least Fina stayed with the Bills for a long time, instead of being traded away for a couple of third rounders after just a few (decent, not great) years.

 

In addition to focusing too many resources on the wrong positions, the Bills are also guilty of choosing the wrong players.

[maddenboy]

Great post! The fact this organization drafted 11 DBs, 9 RBs, and only 2 QBs in the first round speaks volumes. (And goes a long way toward explaining the Bills' general lack of success over the last 30+ years.)

 

One minor tweak I'd suggest to your post is to list the position each listed player played. Some of the names on the list didn't really ring any bells, especially not for the guys drafted decades ago. Listing each player's position would have the added advantage of making it easy to scan the list and count (for example) the number of OTs or OL the Bills drafted during the period you examined.

 

One thing I noticed was how slim the pickings became after the top-10 or top-12 rated picks. If John Fina truly was the 14th best first round pick in the last 44 drafts, that's pretty sad. I remember Marv saying that the Bills employed a player rating service to evaluate their own and other teams' players. According to that service, Fina was roughly the 20th or 22nd-best starting LT in the league while he was playing. (I don't recall his exact rank.) But looking a little further down your list, it's hard to find anyone who was definitively better. For example, you rated Willis McGahee the 18th-best first round pick; and I for one don't think he was any better of an acquisition than Fina had been. At least Fina stayed with the Bills for a long time, instead of being traded away for a couple of third rounders after just a few (decent, not great) years.

 

In addition to focusing too many resources on the wrong positions, the Bills are also guilty of choosing the wrong players.

 

Same here. When I read the OP, my first thought was "wow, a big dropoff after #14, I'm gonna point it out" and now I see that you nailed it. 14 guys out of 48, when they guy is trying hard to find 48 good ones and is including a couple 2nd rounders, is not cause for excitement. And I agree on Jerry Butler.

Edited April 24, 2011 by maddenboy

[1B4IDie]

IMO the worst draft pick in Bills history

 

Is 39 your ranking or the number of downs played for the Bills?

He actually has 26 tackles and 4 sacks and 1 Int for the Bills.

Which kind of puts in perspective just how bad Maybin is.

[thewildrabbit]

1990 James Williams, the DB that had a vision problem with depth perception.... BPA, no way!

 

Funny how Emmitt Smith was taken by Dallas one pick after this kid, Smith had a very high YPC avg, and the only guy I can think of who was around his level was Bo Jackson. I knew the Bills already had TT but I was really hoping they would have taken Smith with that pick.

[jwhit34]

Overall not a bad list.

 

Undervalued:

 

Jim Ritcher: I'd put ahead of Wolford because of his longevity with the Bills.

Paul Seymour: Should be at least 5 spots higher

Henry Jones: I'd rank him ahead of Conlan. At worst he's the 2nd best S in team history (George Saimes)

Eric Wood: It's only 2 years but based on their Bills careers should be ahead of McGahee, Harmon, Antoine Smith

Mario Clark: At a minimum should be ahead of Harmon, McGahee and Burroughs, he was pretty good

Ruben Brown: Has to be ahead of Conlan, Winfield and Butler, like it or not he made a lot of Pro Bowls

 

Should go down the list:

Cousineau, Patulski, Mike Williams, Cowlings, Harmon, McGahee

 

It's tough to rate a guy high on what ifs due to injury. I loved Butler but he had a short career. It's a fun list to put together.

[folz]

Nice work OP, but a few thoughts...

 

I don't know if you can call Greg Bell a bust...He ran for over 1,100 yards his rookie season

and went to the Pro Bowl, had a decent second season, and then was part of the trade that

brought Cornelius Bennett to the Bills. He also had two great seasons with the Rams, earning

comeback player of the year award. If I remember correctly, injuries and a bit of ego got in his

way, but the kid was a player...even if it only equated to 4 productive seasons.

 

I think you have Willis McGahee too high...and Jeff Burris too low. Burris was a very good, starting corner

for 10 years in the league (even if only 4 of them were with the Bills).

 

I think Spiller (I expect him to bust out this year) and Wood (now at center), will move up that list, but I understand

why you have them where they are for now.

 

And Mike Williams has to be #48...For me Maybin is like the Flowers pick...but the Williams pick hurt the

team much more in the long run.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1. Kelly (QBs, above all, just like today)

2. Bruce (Guy was the second best of all time behind Reggie White, should be first but QBs win championships)

3. Simpson (one of the best ever)

45. McCargo

46. Williams

47. Flowers

48. Maybin

 

Last four, Said enough about them already. Woods will be moving into the top ten when it's all said and done and Spiller will be heading to bustville.