Fairley Certain

[danbaldo]

I don't think you can go wrong with Dareus or Fairley. Both are well deserving of top 10 picks, maybe even top 5.

[OldTimer1960]

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top

competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

[shoretalk]

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top

competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

We need a run stopper first and foremost ... there is no doubt that Miller has been able to sack the quarterback using his speed in college but he has no forced fumbles and only one interception. Plus, he is one of the possible early picks who I actually watched and I am disturbed how he jogs his way in plays that are not going to get him on the highlight reel plus he seems to avoid putting himself in front of running backs at the line of scrimmage. Reminds me a lot of Poz ... chases runners down after they pick up 5-10 yards. Somehow I just don't think we need to waste this special pick on a specialist ... give me Fairly or Dareus or even Quinn because they can fill our greatest need of a run stopper up on the line.

[Typical TBD Guy]

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top

competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

 

Remember Corey Moore? Just dropping his name to remind you that college football and the NFL can be two very different beasts.

 

Back to Fairley, I would think he has prototypical 3-4 DE size at 6'4" 295lb. Plus he offers elite pass rushing skills that very few 3-4 DE's in the NFL have. Plus he can pair up with KW as a 4-3 DT when needed. The only things holding back Fairley from being a perennial Pro Bowl DE would be his maturity and work ethic.

[NewEra]

We need a run stopper first and foremost ... there is no doubt that Miller has been able to sack the quarterback using his speed in college but he has no forced fumbles and only one interception. Plus, he is one of the possible early picks who I actually watched and I am disturbed how he jogs his way in plays that are not going to get him on the highlight reel plus he seems to avoid putting himself in front of running backs at the line of scrimmage. Reminds me a lot of Poz ... chases runners down after they pick up 5-10 yards. Somehow I just don't think we need to waste this special pick on a specialist ... give me Fairly or Dareus or even Quinn because they can fill our greatest need of a run stopper up on the line.

Because Quinn fills our need at run stopper at the line... Riiiight. I'd like to draft him, but not because of his run stopping ability. He may very well become a good run stopper, but he hasn't shown much run stopping prowess to this point.

 

Remember Corey Moore? Just dropping his name to remind you that college football and the NFL can be two very different beasts.

 

Back to Fairley, I would think he has prototypical 3-4 DE size at 6'4" 295lb. Plus he offers elite pass rushing skills that very few 3-4 DE's in the NFL have. Plus he can pair up with KW as a 4-3 DT when needed. The only things holding back Fairley from being a perennial Pro Bowl DE would be his maturity and work ethic.

Is that sarcasm too? Corey Moore huh.

[We B 4 Da Billz]

I've been watching tape after tape after tape. I was on the VMill train, but not anymore. I like Fairley. ALOT. From what I saw, double teamed or not, he lives in the backfield. He puts pressure on QB's. He is Dominant. But most of all, he is really really MEAN. We need mean.

 

Marcell Dareus is a force, but in comparison to what I watched - Fairley is quicker and more aggressive. Von Miller scares me - great talent, but technique and size are my concerns - my gut tells me he won't produce to expectations in the NFL. Is Pass rush our MAIN priority? No, most Teams feel they can run on us and do so with ease - right up the middle in most cases. 1-2 sacks per game, 5-6 pressure aren't going to change things up - stuffing the run will.

 

I miss the days when I could enjoy watching us sack a QB several times in a game - years ago. Perhaps someday we'll get there again. Shore up the run D first, then focus on pass rush. I'm sick and tired of watching 2nd and 3rd string RB's average 6-8 YPC against us.

[RealityCheck]

2 thoughts.

 

First, in the 3 hole, I dont see why the Bills would need to go through all that bother. A super good player is sure to fall to them. Since they arent just one player away from the Super Bowl, they shouldnt be too concerned over which super good player they get. As long as its not a running back, wide receiver, or cornerback.

 

They should be more concerned with figuring out who is super good.

 

Second, I love fairley on film, but I want more "grown ass men" on my team, not big kids who are instant millionaires. When I see interviews, that is what I look for. Last year it was clear that Suh was a grown ass man, even in college. Same with Orakpo. Same with Ngata. To me, the 2 primary factors in bust potential are intelligence and maturity. Like Marv said, if all else is equal, take the smarter player, because smart players get better faster.

I could not agree more brother.

[yungmack]

Last year before the draft Chan stated that he wanted a scat-back then many were shocked that we drafted spiller. This year he said we need to get bigger, meaner and nastier on the DL, sounds like he is describing Fairley to me.

Actually, he said that about the ILBs. But this draft is loaded with DLs and really doesn't have a premier ILB so I agree with your underlying belief that the #3 will be DL. If he's there at 3, they'll take Dareus.

[John from Riverside]

Remember Corey Moore? Just dropping his name to remind you that college football and the NFL can be two very different beasts.

 

Back to Fairley, I would think he has prototypical 3-4 DE size at 6'4" 295lb. Plus he offers elite pass rushing skills that very few 3-4 DE's in the NFL have. Plus he can pair up with KW as a 4-3 DT when needed. The only things holding back Fairley from being a perennial Pro Bowl DE would be his maturity and work ethic.

 

The problem with Fairley is he doesnt fit the 3-4 mold as a player.......your DE in a 3-4 is a tie up blockers guy who allows LB's to make plays.......Fairely is more of a Warren Sapp type player that you put into the middle of your DL and let him shoot gaps. When they put Sapp in a 3-4 DE spot he was nowhere NEAR as effective.

 

We need a run stopper first and foremost ... there is no doubt that Miller has been able to sack the quarterback using his speed in college but he has no forced fumbles and only one interception. Plus, he is one of the possible early picks who I actually watched and I am disturbed how he jogs his way in plays that are not going to get him on the highlight reel plus he seems to avoid putting himself in front of running backs at the line of scrimmage. Reminds me a lot of Poz ... chases runners down after they pick up 5-10 yards. Somehow I just don't think we need to waste this special pick on a specialist ... give me Fairly or Dareus or even Quinn because they can fill our greatest need of a run stopper up on the line.

 

The problem is just because Quinn is big does not guarantee that he is a run stopper and to this point hasn't shown that....he is a bigger body then Miller yes but he is a pass rusher as well.....

 

Just being bigger does NOT mean better at the run.

 

I've been watching tape after tape after tape. I was on the VMill train, but not anymore. I like Fairley. ALOT. From what I saw, double teamed or not, he lives in the backfield. He puts pressure on QB's. He is Dominant. But most of all, he is really really MEAN. We need mean.

 

Marcell Dareus is a force, but in comparison to what I watched - Fairley is quicker and more aggressive. Von Miller scares me - great talent, but technique and size are my concerns - my gut tells me he won't produce to expectations in the NFL. Is Pass rush our MAIN priority? No, most Teams feel they can run on us and do so with ease - right up the middle in most cases. 1-2 sacks per game, 5-6 pressure aren't going to change things up - stuffing the run will.

 

I miss the days when I could enjoy watching us sack a QB several times in a game - years ago. Perhaps someday we'll get there again. Shore up the run D first, then focus on pass rush. I'm sick and tired of watching 2nd and 3rd string RB's average 6-8 YPC against us.

 

I personally like Fairley's mean disposition as well.....but you dont need pass rush out of your DE in a 3-4....you need guys that can control the line of scrimmage. We already have one guy in Kyle Williams who sacrifices controlling the line of scrimmage for getting after the QB now.....a second player like that might hurt the team more then help it.

 

It DOESNT FIT THE SCHEME.....your linebackers need to be the guys that get after the QB in a 3-4

[NewEra]

I agree, I wish I could find it but in one of the TG articles he quotes gailey about hypothetically trading down to 9, call me simple but I think we will be trading with Dallas. They need help in the secondary and I bet they jump up to nad Peterson.

 

Looking at the trade value chart, to move up to three (worth 2200 points) Dallas would have to give up their #1(9th overall) 2nd (8th in the 2nd) 3rd (7th in the 3rd) 4th (13th in the 4th) AND 5th(12th in the 5th). Thats obsurd. That trade chart is totally out of whack. It obviously will depend on who is left for us to take, but I would drop back to 9 and be OK with only taking their 2nd. I would ask for more if N. Suh was sitting there but I dont see any player in this class that I wouldnt miss out on for adding another high second.

 

I found it, here it is:

The Buffalo Bills' preparations for their first-round draft choice won't be as easy as 1-2-3.

 

They own the third overall selection. One might think they'll only need to identify three franchise players they'd be satisfied with, accounting for the prospects who'd be taken first and second.

 

"That's a very simplistic way to put it, and that is very true," Bills coach Chan Gailey said Tuesday at the NFL owners meeting in New Orleans. "But you've got to have the whole thing worked out because if somebody calls you in that 15 minutes with an offer you can't refuse and gives you No. 9, you better have nine."

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/38863/no-fireworks-allowed-in-buffalos-draft-room

 

*He also said they have 15 minutes, lets hope they figured that out

 

 

Merriman was a 1st round pick. I think it was 12th overall with out looking.

Agreed, the draft value chart is absurd. And absolute joke. Who made that chart anyway? And do you guys think the NFL FOs really use it? If they do, it really hurts the trade possibilities. Trading up 6 spots is equal to trading away the first 4 picks....pssssh

[Thoner7]

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top

competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

 

The Big 12 is not run oriented. Its actually quite pass happy (FWIW I dont think any conference is run-oriented anymore. the Big 10 is probably the closest you will get). With Nebraska leaving its even moreso a pass happy conference. Oklahoma isnt running the 'bone anymore Oldtimer!

 

The problem with Fairley is he doesnt fit the 3-4 mold as a player.......your DE in a 3-4 is a tie up blockers guy who allows LB's to make plays.......Fairely is more of a Warren Sapp type player that you put into the middle of your DL and let him shoot gaps. When they put Sapp in a 3-4 DE spot he was nowhere NEAR as effective.

 

I guess it would depend on which scheme we planned on implementing. There is a two gap sceme and a penetrating scheme - like Wade runs. I think personel wise we are closer to the penetrating style, with KW and Carrington not striking me as 2 gap guys. Anyone know what SD uses? My guess is thats what nix is going for - but he was in Buffalo under Wade I believe. Who knows, but I think Fairley fits our team just fine.

[John from Riverside]

Dont get me wrong....I would not be throwing my TV out the window on draft day if Nick F. is the pick.....

 

There is something to be said about players rising and falling when no football is being played....its just WRONG....and Nick F. was considered a number one pick at a certain point this offseason.

 

I dont like how players rise and fall on draft boards when nobody is playing football. The same goes with Ryan Mallett......people were talking about how he would be a high pick and then he started falling when no football was bing played.

 

If we ended up with Nick F. in the 1st and Mallett in the 2nd....I would totally dig that.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

Agreed, the draft value chart is absurd. And absolute joke. Who made that chart anyway? And do you guys think the NFL FOs really use it? If they do, it really hurts the trade possibilities. Trading up 6 spots is equal to trading away the first 4 picks....pssssh

Just like a lot of coaches use the same chart to determine whether to go for 2 point conversions, I think a lot of front offices use the draft pick trade value chart to get at least a rough sense of whether a proposed trade is fair. But who cares what I think - - what does the actual history of draft pick trades show? You may think the chart is hogwash, but the article at the link below makes a pretty compelling case that the chart gives a reasonably accurate estimate of what a team might be able to get in return for trading down (at least for trading down in the first round and getting only draft picks from the same year in return):

 

http://www.buffaloru...fl-draft-trades

 

I suppose one weakness in the article's analysis is that there haven't been a great number of trade downs from as high as pick #3 so the data is a little sparse, but overall I was pretty surprised at how often actual trades were made at close to what the draft chart predicts as fair value. You could also make a case for the idea that the chart requires teams looking to trade up to give up more to get there than the value of what they get in return- - but that doesn't mean teams don't use the chart. The data analyzed in the article seems to indicate that teams do in fact use the chart. Whether it makes sense is a totally separate issue.

 

I can also see how it would be pretty useful to have some sort of trade value chart to help you quickly analyze proposed trades when you are on the clock and almost out of time to make your pick when a trade offer comes in on your war room phone.

 

Jimmie Johnson is widely credited with creating the chart, but if you read the comments posted at the above link, apparently some people think it was somebody else in the Dallas organization when JJ was the head coach.

[We B 4 Da Billz]

Dont get me wrong....I would not be throwing my TV out the window on draft day if Nick F. is the pick.....

 

There is something to be said about players rising and falling when no football is being played....its just WRONG....and Nick F. was considered a number one pick at a certain point this offseason.

 

I dont like how players rise and fall on draft boards when nobody is playing football. The same goes with Ryan Mallett......people were talking about how he would be a high pick and then he started falling when no football was bing played.

 

If we ended up with Nick F. in the 1st and Mallett in the 2nd....I would totally dig that.

 

 

I'm with you on this.....

[NewEra]

Just like a lot of coaches use the same chart to determine whether to go for 2 point conversions, I think a lot of front offices use the draft pick trade value chart to get at least a rough sense of whether a proposed trade is fair. But who cares what I think - - what does the actual history of draft pick trades show? You may think the chart is hogwash, but the article at the link below makes a pretty compelling case that the chart gives a reasonably accurate estimate of what a team might be able to get in return for trading down (at least for trading down in the first round and getting only draft picks from the same year in return):

 

http://www.buffaloru...fl-draft-trades

 

I suppose one weakness in the article's analysis is that there haven't been a great number of trade downs from as high as pick #3 so the data is a little sparse, but overall I was pretty surprised at how often actual trades were made at close to what the draft chart predicts as fair value. You could also make a case for the idea that the chart requires teams looking to trade up to give up more to get there than the value of what they get in return- - but that doesn't mean teams don't use the chart. The data analyzed in the article seems to indicate that teams do in fact use the chart. Whether it makes sense is a totally separate issue.

 

I can also see how it would be pretty useful to have some sort of trade value chart to help you quickly analyze proposed trades when you are on the clock and almost out of time to make your pick when a trade offer comes in on your war room phone.

 

Jimmie Johnson is widely credited with creating the chart, but if you read the comments posted at the above link, apparently some people think it was somebody else in the Dallas organization when JJ was the head coach.

 

If you were picking at 8 or 9, would you trade your 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to obtain the number 3 pick? If Suh was there at 3, I would. If there was a Peyton Manning were there at 3, I would. The problem with the chart, is it doesn't take into account the varying talent level each year. I know it's a generalization, but putting an actual value on each pick, when each year the talent level at each pick can be much different is a bit whacky. IMO, the only value is the value that each team puts on a particular player, not pick. If Andrew Luck were on the board at 3 next year, the value of the pick is going to be MUCH higher than it is this year, according to teams that need a QB. Last year, the value of the number 2 pick was worth more than it is this year, due too the player on the board being Suh. Its a subjective situation being labeled objectively. useless imo.

 

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/04/nfl-draft-pick-trade-history.html

shows the numbers involved. Looks like a bunch of crap to me until you see the players involved.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

If you were picking at 8 or 9, would you trade your 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to obtain the number 3 pick? If Suh was there at 3, I would. If there was a Peyton Manning were there at 3, I would. The problem with the chart, is it doesn't take into account the varying talent level each year. I know it's a generalization, but putting an actual value on each pick, when each year the talent level at each pick can be much different is a bit whacky. IMO, the only value is the value that each team puts on a particular player, not pick. If Andrew Luck were on the board at 3 next year, the value of the pick is going to be MUCH higher than it is this year, according to teams that need a QB. Last year, the value of the number 2 pick was worth more than it is this year, due too the player on the board being Suh. Its a subjective situation being labeled objectively. useless imo.

 

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/04/nfl-draft-pick-trade-history.html

shows the numbers involved. Looks like a bunch of crap to me until you see the players involved.

Personally, if I was the GM, I would probably not trade my 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to move up from 8 or 9 to #3. There are too many examples of college players that were labeled "Can't Miss" who later wound up being labeled "Can't Play," and nobody knows who they ALL are in advance. I was pretty happy we drafted OT Mike Williams at (#4?) on draft day, but that didn't turn out so well. I would have felt worse if we had given up a lot of other picks to move up to #4 to get him.

 

But I can see how some people might make such a trade, especially if they thought they were on the verge of making a deep play-off run if they could just fill a particular hole on their roster. On the other hand, if I was looking to trade down, I wouldn't care too much if I got as much value in return as the chart says I should get. As long as I could trade down and still get the player I most wanted to fill a position of need, I'd try to squeeze as much out of my trading partner as possible. But in the end, I'd be jazzed about getting the player I wanted and one or more extra picks. I'd be especially inclined to trade down if there were several players who appeared to have roughly equal ability at the position I needed.

 

I think you're right about how the value of a given pick should vary from year to year depending on what player is available at that spot. Seems to me like it should also depend on how big the drop off is from the BPA at a given position to the next best player at that same position, and how many teams want to draft a player at that same position. That will change from year to year, too. That's why I'm surprised by how often the trade value chart appears to be a roughly accurate predictor of what a given draft pick is likely to fetch in trade. Regardless of how we logically analyze the situation, though, the empirical data shows that the chart is USUALLY a fairly accurate predictor of what you can get in return for trading down.

 

Thanks for the link - it's an interesting accumulation of draft pick trade data. The way they are listed makes it easy to see what other teams have gotten in the past for trading down out of any particular spot, like down from our #3 this year.

[BiggieScooby]

Nobody wants to pay a guy who has questionable work ethic & and lacks elite pro-caliber ability. As more teams abandon the 4-3 his stock drops. Fairley also has a history coming into the league of being a cheap-shot artist. What he did against Georgia this past season would warranty $100K+ fines by Roger.

[OldTimer1960]

Remember Corey Moore? Just dropping his name to remind you that college football and the NFL can be two very different beasts.

 

Back to Fairley, I would think he has prototypical 3-4 DE size at 6'4" 295lb. Plus he offers elite pass rushing skills that very few 3-4 DE's in the NFL have. Plus he can pair up with KW as a 4-3 DT when needed. The only things holding back Fairley from being a perennial Pro Bowl DE would be his maturity and work ethic.

 

I suggest that "only" maturity and work ethic are HUGE issues. Was Ray Lewis the most physically dominant LB in the last 10 years

of the draft? No, it was his work ethic that made him great. Was Tom Brady a physically gifted QB? No, it is his work ethic that makes

him great. I am sure that I could continue to name a number of guys who starred because of their work ethic. It is a shorter list of

players who were terrifically talented, but had crappy work ethics and still starred anyway.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Dareaus, fairley, Bowers . any of them and i'd be happy. Would only help us

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Agreed, the draft value chart is absurd. And absolute joke. Who made that chart anyway? And do you guys think the NFL FOs really use it? If they do, it really hurts the trade possibilities. Trading up 6 spots is equal to trading away the first 4 picks....pssssh

The chart was formulated by Jimmy Johnson who was then coach of the Dallas Cowboys.

 

It's not an absolute joke actually. It's the first reference document that teams look at when formulating trades.

 

But it's only a reference…a starting point.

 

Trades deviate from the chart values routinely. The Bills for instance overpaid (#s 43, and 74) to move up to #34 to draft Paul Posluszny.

 

 

[Meark]

Kinda sick of the Von Miller talk. We have Moats that was playing lights out when he got on the field and hopefully Merriman comes back strong. There's also Batten that didn't even get on the field because of an injury that's coming back. We need another stud on the D-line period. Edwards was ok and Carrington appeared to be stepping up.. but the ends of the D line seemed to be the biggest weakness. I was hoping for Dareous but would be equally excited about drafting Fairley.