Magox Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 (edited) I was watching Laurence Meyer, ex federal reserve voting member this morning on CNBC, and this guy and other economic academics including steve liesmann are absolutely battschitt blind. They keep saying over and over that there is no inflation and that oil has very little impact on their inflation expectations, and if that if oil prices did filter into the economy that it would slow it down and therefore woule be considered disinflationary due to its slowing effect on the economy. huh?? What the hell?? No schitt, that is what inflation does, it slows down economies. I also keep hearing that these rising oil prices shouldnt effect the economy that much from many of the stock cheerleaders. Don't get me wrong, I'm 75% invested myself, but I'm scaling back as we speak, because soon, there will be no more QE and the sugar high will end, then we'll be left with $100+ Oil with fiscal and monetary stimulus fading and we'll see whether or not corporations pass down the costs to the consumers or eat it themselves. My guess is a mixture of the two. I just get bent all out of shape hearing these academics who are only able to see through their narrow metrics that are unable to see the effects of future fiscal debt concerns, loose monetary policy implications and rising oil prices. One after another seem to dismiss these threats, they just say something along the lines of "well yeah, if it rises too much then it will have an effect, but we don't foresee any real effects in our models". These are the same guys that have failed models that missed the last downturn. They are either Federal reserve academic gob swallowers or equity cheerleaders. Santelli is the voice of reason on that floor, he gets it. Edited March 4, 2011 by Magox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was watching Laurence Meyer, ex federal reserve voting member this morning on CNBC, and this guy and other economic academics including steve liesmann are absolutely battschitt blind. They keep saying over and over that there is no inflation and that oil has very little impact on their inflation expectations, and if that if oil prices did filter into the economy that it would slow it down and therefore woule be considered disinflationary due to its slowing effect on the economy. huh?? What the hell?? No schitt, that is what inflation does, it slows down economies. I also keep hearing that these rising oil prices shouldnt effect the economy that much from many of the stock cheerleaders. Don't get me wrong, I'm 75% invested myself, but I'm scaling back as we speak, because soon, there will be no more QE and the sugar high will end, then we'll be left with $100+ Oil with fiscal and monetary stimulus fading and we'll see whether or not corporations pass down the costs to the consumers or eat it themselves. My guess is a mixture of the two. I just get bent all out of shape hearing these academics who are only able to see through their narrow metrics that are unable to see the effects of future fiscal debt concerns, loose monetary policy implications and rising oil prices. One after another seem to dismiss these threats, they just say something along the lines of "well yeah, if it rises too much then it will have an effect, but we don't foresee any real effects in our models". These are the same guys that have failed models that missed the last downturn. They are either Federal reserve academic gob swallowers or equity cheerleaders. Santelli is the voice of reason on that floor, he gets it. The beauty of all this is that if you have an opinion, you could get bet on it, make money and not really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was watching Laurence Meyer, ex federal reserve voting member this morning on CNBC, and this guy and other economic academics including steve liesmann are absolutely battschitt blind. They keep saying over and over that there is no inflation and that oil has very little impact on their inflation expectations, and if that if oil prices did filter into the economy that it would slow it down and therefore woule be considered disinflationary due to its slowing effect on the economy. huh?? I can understand their reasoning: economic growth causes increased demand, causes rising prices, hence slowing economic growth is "disinflationary". But note I called it "reasoning", not "logic"...since in effect they're arguing that inflation is disinflationary, probably because rising oil prices aren't "real" inflation since they're not included in the "core CPI". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 With respect to the oil issue, here's a nice little blurb from one of my favorite sites: Seeking Alpha I don't think you need to register. At any rate, this is an interesting piece on the expiration of current futures and option contracts and possible impact. Also discusses the inventory thingy at Cushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 With respect to the oil issue, here's a nice little blurb from one of my favorite sites: Seeking Alpha I don't think you need to register. At any rate, this is an interesting piece on the expiration of current futures and option contracts and possible impact. Also discusses the inventory thingy at Cushing. Oil was one of my favorite commodities that I traded and to see it drop down to $94-95 wouldnt be surprising whatsoever. Having said that, I do believe that a new floor has been put into place for oil, this situation in the middleeast doesnt appear that it will be abating any time soon, and their will continue to be a risk premium on the price of crude (as their should be) until this gets resolved or appears to be. The Cushing supplies is for WTI crude, not Brent and brent crude is the more important oil considering that is what is used more so than any other oil. So I dont pay too much attention to Cushing Oil supplies and those investors that do, GET PUNISHED. In regards to the rolloever, yeah there is probably some of that going on, but this movement is more based on fear of disruption and some short covering, i've noticed that volumes are extremely low, which makes sense considering the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 With respect to the oil issue, here's a nice little blurb from one of my favorite sites: Seeking Alpha I don't think you need to register. At any rate, this is an interesting piece on the expiration of current futures and option contracts and possible impact. Also discusses the inventory thingy at Cushing. I figured there was plenty of supply even with Libya offline. Once again looking for any unrest, oil speculators have entered the market in large numbers to drive the prices up. Whats different this time from 2006 is that it's not just oil that is going through the roof but all commodities are on a tare, inflation! This paired with what magox have stated, and fall in household saving, the jump in consumer spending (not form increased employment), the stock-market rise from the Fed effectively dumping dollars into equities has built a nice big equity bubble. Questions: Will the bubble bust with the end of QE2 in June? Where do you put your money to avoid inflation erosion if you get out of the market? Gold? Grain? foreign investment EM and like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I figured there was plenty of supply even with Libya offline. Once again looking for any unrest, oil speculators have entered the market in large numbers to drive the prices up. Whats different this time from 2006 is that it's not just oil that is going through the roof but all commodities are on a tare, inflation! This paired with what magox have stated, and fall in household saving, the jump in consumer spending (not form increased employment), the stock-market rise from the Fed effectively dumping dollars into equities has built a nice big equity bubble. Questions: Will the bubble bust with the end of QE2 in June? Where do you put your money to avoid inflation erosion if you get out of the market? Gold? Grain? foreign investment EM and like? Farm land, silver, seeds, toilet paper, booze, Indian res cigarettes (if you got a big freezer), coffee, chocolate, guns, ammo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Farm land, silver, seeds, toilet paper, booze, Indian res cigarettes (if you got a big freezer), coffee, chocolate, guns, ammo If it ever came down to that all I need is one gun and one bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 If it ever came down to that all I need is one gun and one bullet. Don't be so melodramatic we'll still be doing better than 2/3s of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Oil was one of my favorite commodities that I traded and to see it drop down to $94-95 wouldnt be surprising whatsoever. Having said that, I do believe that a new floor has been put into place for oil, this situation in the middleeast doesnt appear that it will be abating any time soon, and their will continue to be a risk premium on the price of crude (as their should be) until this gets resolved or appears to be. The Cushing supplies is for WTI crude, not Brent and brent crude is the more important oil considering that is what is used more so than any other oil. So I dont pay too much attention to Cushing Oil supplies and those investors that do, GET PUNISHED. In regards to the rolloever, yeah there is probably some of that going on, but this movement is more based on fear of disruption and some short covering, i've noticed that volumes are extremely low, which makes sense considering the price. Yes, Brent is the world price standard now, but WTI and the inventory in Cushing relate to domestic prices. The price of gas in the US goes up while the supply of inventory at the main supply point is the highest it's ever been. Yes, speculation about political events is driving prices, that's the point she makes. As for rollover, from your comment ("yeah there is probably some of that going on"), it appears that you misunderstand her point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 (edited) Don't be so melodramatic we'll still be doing better than 2/3s of the world Sorry, that's just not acceptable. I would rather endure the fleeting burning pain of a bullet passing through my head than to experience a world in which the greatest nation on earth has fallen to a third world status. Edited March 5, 2011 by whateverdude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Sorry, that's just not acceptable. I would rather endure the fleeting burning pain of a bullet passing through my head than to experience a world in which the greatest nation on earth has fallen to a third world status. well unless you have no family and no friends you have obligations - so buck the @#$% up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yes, Brent is the world price standard now, but WTI and the inventory in Cushing relate to domestic prices. The price of gas in the US goes up while the supply of inventory at the main supply point is the highest it's ever been. Yes, speculation about political events is driving prices, that's the point she makes. As for rollover, from your comment ("yeah there is probably some of that going on"), it appears that you misunderstand her point. Cushing oil supplies plays a very little role in prices, the main driver of oil is demand, presently it's fear of supply disruptions thats driving prices higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 well unless you have no family and no friends you have obligations - so buck the @#$% up True, so basically you are telling me to stockpile food, water guns and ammo. You're sounding like a right winger more and more, have you joined the dark side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 True, so basically you are telling me to stockpile food, water guns and ammo. You're sounding like a right winger more and more, have you joined the dark side? This the only place to go where I'm on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 (edited) I just get bent all out of shape hearing these academics who are only able to see through their narrow metrics that are unable to see the effects of future fiscal debt concerns, loose monetary policy implications and rising oil prices. One after another seem to dismiss these threats, they just say something along the lines of "well yeah, if it rises too much then it will have an effect, but we don't foresee any real effects in our models". would you not consider a professor of economics at NYU and previously at Yale an academic? many hedge fund managers wished they had Nouriel Roubini's insight right around 2008. Edited March 5, 2011 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 would you not consider a professor of economics at NYU and previously at Yale an academic? many hedge fund managers wished they had Nouriel Roubini's insight right around 2008. Roubini at least doesn't use the typical metrics that many of the more conventional economists and stock cheerleaders use, having said that, he's a perma bear that has been wrong on more than a few occassions over the past year and a half. But I do enjoy hearing his analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Sorry, that's just not acceptable. I would rather endure the fleeting burning pain of a bullet passing through my head than to experience a world in which the greatest nation on earth has fallen to a third world status. And here I thought you meant you'd shoot ...lybob and take his hoard of land, silver, seeds, toilet paper, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 And here I thought you meant you'd shoot ...lybob and take his hoard of land, silver, seeds, toilet paper, etc. Hmmmmm... I like the way you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Roubini at least doesn't use the typical metrics that many of the more conventional economists and stock cheerleaders use, having said that, he's a perma bear that has been wrong on more than a few occassions over the past year and a half. But I do enjoy hearing his analysis. you make him sound like a minor player...the financial elite sure don't consider him that while they listen to him lecture at davos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_In_Norfolk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I was watching Laurence Meyer, ex federal reserve voting member this morning on CNBC, and this guy and other economic academics including steve liesmann are absolutely battschitt blind. They keep saying over and over that there is no inflation and that oil has very little impact on their inflation expectations, and if that if oil prices did filter into the economy that it would slow it down and therefore woule be considered disinflationary due to its slowing effect on the economy. huh?? What the hell?? No schitt, that is what inflation does, it slows down economies. I also keep hearing that these rising oil prices shouldnt effect the economy that much from many of the stock cheerleaders. Don't get me wrong, I'm 75% invested myself, but I'm scaling back as we speak, because soon, there will be no more QE and the sugar high will end, then we'll be left with $100+ Oil with fiscal and monetary stimulus fading and we'll see whether or not corporations pass down the costs to the consumers or eat it themselves. My guess is a mixture of the two. I just get bent all out of shape hearing these academics who are only able to see through their narrow metrics that are unable to see the effects of future fiscal debt concerns, loose monetary policy implications and rising oil prices. One after another seem to dismiss these threats, they just say something along the lines of "well yeah, if it rises too much then it will have an effect, but we don't foresee any real effects in our models". These are the same guys that have failed models that missed the last downturn. They are either Federal reserve academic gob swallowers or equity cheerleaders. Santelli is the voice of reason on that floor, he gets it. Oh! They're the ones that missed it! Gotcha! Santelli the Great was the profit warning us all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Oh! They're the ones that missed it! Gotcha! Santelli the Great was the profit warning us all along? Really...I mean really??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 (edited) Really...I mean really??? i'm sure that irony was intended. very clever dave! Edited March 5, 2011 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 (edited) i'm sure that irony was intended. very clever dave! No, Dave is an idiot. In regards to Roubini, I respect him very much, I use his some of his analysis for what I do and I have quoted him on many occassions. Having said that, he has been wrong on many instances over the past year, that is what happens when you get a perma bull and perma bear. They are always looking for either the bull or bear case with little regards to the other side of the argument. Which is why the stock cheerleaders are always looking for the upside and the perma bears such as roubini always looking for the downfall. Edited March 5, 2011 by Magox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Cushing oil supplies plays a very little role in prices, the main driver of oil is demand, presently it's fear of supply disruptions thats driving prices higher. Brent is now the barometer of global demand-supply, yes, but you still seem to be missing the point made in that link. What's going on with WTI and inventories at Cushing are related to the financialization of oil (and commodities in general), the long positions that commodity ETFs take, and therefore the rollover. The "play" that she is suggesting is to take advantage of the ETF (USO) "rollover" which will drive prices of the expiring March futures contract down during the rollover period, hence she suggests shorting oil to take advantage of the fixed obligations by the ETFs. This is what I posted about in a previous link, that the smart players can take advantage of the ETFs that have known long obligations and will rollover their contracts over a specified period of time. [For those on the sidelines, this means that the largest ETF USO, first has to "liquidate" its long positions in the March contracts--selling March contracts next week so they don't have to take delivery, thus driving the price down; then they jump back in buying longer dated contracts to maintain their long-only position. As the ETFs grow, their influence during the roll period is growing too.] Her point also, as it relates to most of us, is that prices to US consumers are being jacked up based on what "might happen" in the ME and NAfrica (MENA), yet there is a glut and growing inventory of oil at the largest refinery point in the US. The price increase is not a current supply or demand issue; it's a what-if issue; but that's what speculators always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Sorry, that's just not acceptable. I would rather endure the fleeting burning pain of a bullet passing through my head than to experience a world in which the greatest nation on earth has fallen to a third world status. You'll need the proper t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Oh christ, here we go... convene the Jedi council! amazingly, there will be 3 page posts in this thread, and nobody will compare about length! somebody go get GG! No, Dave is an idiot. Just brushing aside all benefit of the doubt in absolute terms. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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