How to Draft Andrew Luck

[Ozymandius]

The problem with you plan or great and powerful Oz is that it basically is am unvarnished surrender of the 2011 season for the potential (probable at best and actually merely possible benefits because the draft is as much art as it is science) for the 2012 season.

 

You simply do not even describe:

 

1. The impact on the 2011 Bills players and coaches when they transparently decide to put an inferior product on the field in the hopes of gaining benefits later. Basically the transparent rule for the players in 2011 will be that if the FO is making little effort to win in 2011 then the individual player need only make an effort to survive to get a payoff from some other team.

 

2. The impact on the hard built season ticket base and Bills fans simply see through the plan and choose to not spend their hard earned dollars on the 2011 Bills. Perhaps the TEAM makes such an outstanding comeback with the presence of the rookie QB Luck (my guess is that Luck does as much for the Bills performance as Peyton Manning did for Indy's results in his first year). If the Bills were to as transparently capitulate in 2011 as you suggest my guess is that at best the Bills recover their fan support in 2012 at best if ever.

 

3. The impact on the rest of the league is also uncertain. The biggest beneficiaries of this strategy in 2011 and likely 2012 is going to be the Jets, the Fish, the Pats, and whatever opponents face the Bills these two years as they likely can pencil in a win.

 

ESPM coverage is likely to center on discussing which teams benefit the most because their schedule includes a team that has said No Mas and in a sport where the margins for making the playoffs are often determined by tiebreakers and one game, the entire competitive balance of the league is thrown off by one team capitulating.

 

Part and parcel of the strategy you lay out is one getting rid of Fitz because he actually played a clear role in winning a couple of games. The strategy you lay out is a total repudiation of the "on any given Sunday" approach taken by the game which to a great extent is why its worth watching.

 

You do not even give lip service to how this franchise (and maybe even the league) survive one of its teams simply surrendering for a season (or two or more as it will take time to rebuild from this debacle).

 

Bills fans would avoid the 2011 games but would flock to buy 2012 season tickets with Luck at QB. Same with 2013, 2014, 2015, etc season tickets. It's only sensible to sacrifice one season for 15 prosperous ones.

 

I couldn't care less about the impact on the league in 2011. The Bills are in competition with the other 31 franchises. We've got to do what's best for us.

 

The effect on the players would be the toughest. No doubt they would be upset if Fitzpatrick and Williams were traded. In the end, though, they are professionals who will go to work. And there are a lot of young players on this team who are trying to improve and make a name for themselves and will try hard regardless. I would expect team morale to recover. It certainly would by 2012.

[It's in My Blood]

It's simple to rebuild this franchise. It just takes a little bit of guts and imagination.

 

(1) Trade Fitzpatrick. He was the one thing keeping us from getting the #1 draft pick THIS season. Luckily, Andrew stayed in school. Do not allow Fitz a chance to interfere again. His value is at an all-time high and you could probably get a second-rounder for him, perhaps even a 2012 first-rounder from a QB-starved team.

 

(2) Trade Kyle Williams for a 2012 first-rounder. Just pick a team that you think will suck bad in 2012 and trade him to them. Denver? Cincinnati? Carolina again? This simultaneously accomplishes the goal of making the Bills worse while eliminating one team in competition for Luck.

 

(3) Use 2011 draft picks ONLY on offensive linemen and tight end. That means trading down from the #3 overall unless a stud offensive tackle emerges. The Bills already have enough good, young talent at WR and RB. Use this draft to build a strong offensive line for Luck and give him a TE safety blanket as well. Once we've drafted something like two tackles with starter potential, a backup guard, and a highly-rated tight end, trade all excess 2011 picks for 2012 picks.

 

(4) Start Brohm in 2011. If he begins to improve to where he might be able to win a game (I highly doubt this, LOL), then bench him and start Levi Brown. Just alternate between those two QBs all season as needed.

 

The idea is simple. Create a strong support system for Andrew Luck by giving him a strong o-line and receiving targets and spend the 2011 season developing the young offensive talent in those areas as much as possible. Meanwhile, DEPLETE the team everywhere else. Don't stop with just trading Kyle Williams. Trade Moats and any other good player on the roster (there aren't that many) that isn't an offensive lineman or receiving target. (I do have a soft spot for Moorman and would prefer that we keep him, though).

 

Coach and gameplan as normal. Don't tank games on purpose. Try to win them, develop good habits, develop the skills of the depleted roster so that they can become good backup or role players, etc. But with Brohm/Brown leading the way and no defense, the #1 draft pick in 2012 should be easily attainable even while trying to win.

 

Then, in 2012, Andrew Luck steps into a good situation for him with a strong o-line and strong receiving targets. And THEN you rebuild the defense. We would be contenders for the next 15 years with the QB situation settled.

 

It's a simple plan but it takes guts and imagination. Do the Bills front office have it in them? I doubt it.

 

I thought this post was a joke , but then to my horror , you seem to be serious.

[EastRochBillsfan]

The sad thing is that I read the whole post. I would ask if you are serious, but I know you are.

 

I...I..am at a loss for words.

 

And anyone that agrees with ozzy about trading our best player in Kyle Williams is just as nuts as he is.

 

If you want Luck so bad, how about we send whatever draft picks we need to next year to trade up to get him?

[Ozymandius]

If you want Luck so bad, how about we send whatever draft picks we need to next year to trade up to get him?

 

No team who is in position to draft Luck would accept that trade.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

The plan actually makes sense, under the assumption that Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning. Problem is, a team can't gamble at completely mortgaging their future on that ridiculous assumption.

[Ozymandius]

The plan actually makes sense, under the assumption that Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning. Problem is, a team can't gamble at completely mortgaging their future on that ridiculous assumption.

 

All plans have risk. I'd rather follow a plan that gets us Andrew Luck than whatever plan the Bills come up with.

 

We're probably going to stay put, draft the next Spiller/Maybin/McKelvin/Whitner at #3, and build around Fitzpatrick. Yawn. Let's see how that works out compared to whatever franchise lands Andrew Luck.

[Chilly]

This is one of the best trolling jobs I've seen.

[FightinIrishBills]

It's simple to rebuild this franchise. It just takes a little bit of guts and imagination.

 

(1) Trade Fitzpatrick. He was the one thing keeping us from getting the #1 draft pick THIS season. Luckily, Andrew stayed in school. Do not allow Fitz a chance to interfere again. His value is at an all-time high and you could probably get a second-rounder for him, perhaps even a 2012 first-rounder from a QB-starved team.

 

(2) Trade Kyle Williams for a 2012 first-rounder. Just pick a team that you think will suck bad in 2012 and trade him to them. Denver? Cincinnati? Carolina again? This simultaneously accomplishes the goal of making the Bills worse while eliminating one team in competition for Luck.

 

(3) Use 2011 draft picks ONLY on offensive linemen and tight end. That means trading down from the #3 overall unless a stud offensive tackle emerges. The Bills already have enough good, young talent at WR and RB. Use this draft to build a strong offensive line for Luck and give him a TE safety blanket as well. Once we've drafted something like two tackles with starter potential, a backup guard, and a highly-rated tight end, trade all excess 2011 picks for 2012 picks.

 

(4) Start Brohm in 2011. If he begins to improve to where he might be able to win a game (I highly doubt this, LOL), then bench him and start Levi Brown. Just alternate between those two QBs all season as needed.

 

The idea is simple. Create a strong support system for Andrew Luck by giving him a strong o-line and receiving targets and spend the 2011 season developing the young offensive talent in those areas as much as possible. Meanwhile, DEPLETE the team everywhere else. Don't stop with just trading Kyle Williams. Trade Moats and any other good player on the roster (there aren't that many) that isn't an offensive lineman or receiving target. (I do have a soft spot for Moorman and would prefer that we keep him, though).

 

Coach and gameplan as normal. Don't tank games on purpose. Try to win them, develop good habits, develop the skills of the depleted roster so that they can become good backup or role players, etc. But with Brohm/Brown leading the way and no defense, the #1 draft pick in 2012 should be easily attainable even while trying to win.

 

Then, in 2012, Andrew Luck steps into a good situation for him with a strong o-line and strong receiving targets. And THEN you rebuild the defense. We would be contenders for the next 15 years with the QB situation settled.

 

It's a simple plan but it takes guts and imagination. Do the Bills front office have it in them? I doubt it.

 

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Hazed and Amuzed]

So lets trade 1 proven pro bowler and one of the better QB's we've had in the last 20 years for just a chance to draft an unproven talent.... I see. This isn't Madden.

[stony]

I don't care if we couldn't get 7th-rounders for them. Get them off the team so we can position ourselves for Luck.

 

But seriously, Kyle Williams would net a first-rounder and Fitz would net at least a 3rd-rounder.

 

No. They Wouldn't.

[ALLEN1QB]

It's simple to rebuild this franchise. It just takes a little bit of guts and imagination.

 

(1) Trade Fitzpatrick. He was the one thing keeping us from getting the #1 draft pick THIS season. Luckily, Andrew stayed in school. Do not allow Fitz a chance to interfere again. His value is at an all-time high and you could probably get a second-rounder for him, perhaps even a 2012 first-rounder from a QB-starved team.

 

(2) Trade Kyle Williams for a 2012 first-rounder. Just pick a team that you think will suck bad in 2012 and trade him to them. Denver? Cincinnati? Carolina again? This simultaneously accomplishes the goal of making the Bills worse while eliminating one team in competition for Luck.

 

(3) Use 2011 draft picks ONLY on offensive linemen and tight end. That means trading down from the #3 overall unless a stud offensive tackle emerges. The Bills already have enough good, young talent at WR and RB. Use this draft to build a strong offensive line for Luck and give him a TE safety blanket as well. Once we've drafted something like two tackles with starter potential, a backup guard, and a highly-rated tight end, trade all excess 2011 picks for 2012 picks.

 

(4) Start Brohm in 2011. If he begins to improve to where he might be able to win a game (I highly doubt this, LOL), then bench him and start Levi Brown. Just alternate between those two QBs all season as needed.

 

The idea is simple. Create a strong support system for Andrew Luck by giving him a strong o-line and receiving targets and spend the 2011 season developing the young offensive talent in those areas as much as possible. Meanwhile, DEPLETE the team everywhere else. Don't stop with just trading Kyle Williams. Trade Moats and any other good player on the roster (there aren't that many) that isn't an offensive lineman or receiving target. (I do have a soft spot for Moorman and would prefer that we keep him, though).

 

Coach and gameplan as normal. Don't tank games on purpose. Try to win them, develop good habits, develop the skills of the depleted roster so that they can become good backup or role players, etc. But with Brohm/Brown leading the way and no defense, the #1 draft pick in 2012 should be easily attainable even while trying to win.

 

Then, in 2012, Andrew Luck steps into a good situation for him with a strong o-line and strong receiving targets. And THEN you rebuild the defense. We would be contenders for the next 15 years with the QB situation settled.

 

It's a simple plan but it takes guts and imagination. Do the Bills front office have it in them? I doubt it.

 

 

I like the way this guy thinks. At least there will be a light and the end of the tunnel.

[Ozymandius]

So lets trade 1 proven pro bowler and one of the better QB's we've had in the last 20 years for just a chance to draft an unproven talent.... I see. This isn't Madden.

 

Please. Everyone here knows it's the right move. But we also know the Bills are either too gutless or too incompetent to position themselves for Luck in 2012, so we pretend like the plan is ridiculous.

[Captain Caveman]

Everyone here knows it's the right move.

 

Sure, we're all just ridiculing you because we're jealous.

[Orton's Arm]

It's simple to rebuild this franchise. It just takes a little bit of guts and imagination.

 

(1) Trade Fitzpatrick. He was the one thing keeping us from getting the #1 draft pick THIS season. Luckily, Andrew stayed in school. Do not allow Fitz a chance to interfere again. His value is at an all-time high and you could probably get a second-rounder for him, perhaps even a 2012 first-rounder from a QB-starved team.

 

(2) Trade Kyle Williams for a 2012 first-rounder. Just pick a team that you think will suck bad in 2012 and trade him to them. Denver? Cincinnati? Carolina again? This simultaneously accomplishes the goal of making the Bills worse while eliminating one team in competition for Luck.

 

(3) Use 2011 draft picks ONLY on offensive linemen and tight end. That means trading down from the #3 overall unless a stud offensive tackle emerges. The Bills already have enough good, young talent at WR and RB. Use this draft to build a strong offensive line for Luck and give him a TE safety blanket as well. Once we've drafted something like two tackles with starter potential, a backup guard, and a highly-rated tight end, trade all excess 2011 picks for 2012 picks.

 

(4) Start Brohm in 2011. If he begins to improve to where he might be able to win a game (I highly doubt this, LOL), then bench him and start Levi Brown. Just alternate between those two QBs all season as needed.

 

The idea is simple. Create a strong support system for Andrew Luck by giving him a strong o-line and receiving targets and spend the 2011 season developing the young offensive talent in those areas as much as possible. Meanwhile, DEPLETE the team everywhere else. Don't stop with just trading Kyle Williams. Trade Moats and any other good player on the roster (there aren't that many) that isn't an offensive lineman or receiving target. (I do have a soft spot for Moorman and would prefer that we keep him, though).

 

Coach and gameplan as normal. Don't tank games on purpose. Try to win them, develop good habits, develop the skills of the depleted roster so that they can become good backup or role players, etc. But with Brohm/Brown leading the way and no defense, the #1 draft pick in 2012 should be easily attainable even while trying to win.

 

Then, in 2012, Andrew Luck steps into a good situation for him with a strong o-line and strong receiving targets. And THEN you rebuild the defense. We would be contenders for the next 15 years with the QB situation settled.

 

It's a simple plan but it takes guts and imagination. Do the Bills front office have it in them? I doubt it.

I like this plan! You're clearly thinking outside the box, and in an intelligent way.

 

One minor detail: I'd suggest that the Bills not trade away Moats. If you draft a guy say, 15th overall, sit him on the bench for the year, and then try to trade him away the next year, you're not going to get the 15th overall pick. Other teams will assume you're trading him away for a reason, and will give you a lot less than 15th overall for him. (You'd probably be lucky to get a third round pick.)

 

I'll grant that Moats wasn't a first round pick in the first place, so the above doesn't directly apply to him. But he's a young guy who has only begun the process of proving himself on the field. From the perspective of the other teams in the league, he's much less of a known quantity than, say, Kyle Williams. This means that if the Bills trade him, other teams will assume that he's close to having hit his ceiling. (If he hadn't, why would the Bills trade him away?) Since Moats very probably hasn't hit his ceiling, he'll probably be worth a lot more in a trade a few years from now--once he's proven a lot more--than he's worth today.

 

But I fully agree that there needs to be a reduction in the available talent on defense if the Bills are to maximize their chances of drafting Luck. Trading away Kyle Williams would be an excellent start to that talent reduction: a player like that should be worth plenty in a trade. After that, I'd suggest evaluating the players on defense to determine which ones will be too old to be solid starters two or three years from now. Anyone like that should be released after this season if we're implementing your plan. Players like that are typically worth little or nothing in a trade, and that's okay. There are enough players in that category to make a much more dramatic difference on the 2011 defense than the loss of Moats alone would represent.

[Orton's Arm]

Ozymandius, explain your logic to me. How does ridding the team of all its good players in order to attain one player who MIGHT be good make any sense? Don't forget that Luck is an unknown quantity in the NFL.

It would be very arrogant, foolish, and wrong for me to try to speak for Ozymandius. But I won't let that stop me!

 

Only one team wins the Super Bowl each year, which means there's a 1/32 chance of doing so. Winning a Super Bowl is a lot like coming in first in a race. Coming in first may well require a completely different approach than would merely running a solid race.

 

You can get from bottom-dweller to being the tenth-best team in the league with a quarterback who's merely solid. Having the tenth-best team in the league is a lot like running that "solid race" I described. But it's extremely difficult to go from tenth-best to first unless you have a franchise quarterback.

 

Look at the Ravens of 2000. All four of their defensive linemen were guys that were good enough to deserve to be double-teamed. (Though obviously, not all four could be.) Playing behind them was a top-tier LB corps led by Ray Lewis. Every LB on that corps played at or near the Pro Bowl level. At CB they had a pair of former first round picks, each of whom had turned into a shut-down corner. They had guys like Ed Reed at safety.

 

On offense they had Jon Ogden at LT, who was close to being a Hall of Fame level player when he played. They had a very solid overall OL. They had Jamal Lewis and his pounding running attack. (Lewis would later rush for 2000 yards in a season.)

 

Despite having achieved all that, that Ravens group won just one Super Bowl. Conversely, a team with much less overall talent at the non-QB positions--such as the Patriots of the 2000s--was able to come away with three Super Bowl wins and a Super Bowl appearance. That's the difference having a franchise quarterback makes. The Ravens of 2000 also illustrate how hard it is to overcome the lack of a franchise QB if you want a Super Bowl win.

 

However, opportunities to draft franchise QBs are rare. Opportunities to draft QBs of Luck's caliber are especially so. There aren't that many franchise-level QBs in the league today, and many of the ones who are have been in the league a while (Brees, Brady, Peyton Manning). Put another way, the pace at which franchise quarterbacks have entered the league has been slow: no more than one a year, and very probably less. Luck is next year's franchise quarterback. Maybe next year will be a good year and there will be more than one franchise quarterback. But even if that's the case, it's not certain that the Bills will be able to successfully identify him. Or will be in a position to draft him if they do.

 

Most teams in the league currently don't have franchise-level quarterbacks. That's another way of saying that if you follow a standard-issue approach, odds are against you getting a franchise QB. Having a franchise quarterback is the exception. To get one, you must do something exceptional. You can get exceptionally lucky (as the Patriots did when they took Brady) or you can have an exceptionally good draft pick (such as the Colts had when they took Manning). I prefer to avoid placing too much emphasis on luck (no pun intended). Having a franchise quarterback is critical to a team's ability to win the Super Bowl.

 

Every other hole on this team is much easier to fill than a franchise QB. Also you can win a Super Bowl with a LT who's merely above-average, as the Patriots showed with Matt Light. Similarly, you can get away with being average or above-average at most other key positions. But it's almost impossible to win the Super Bowl without obtaining very good play from your quarterback position.

[NoSaint]

Please. Everyone here knows it's the right move. But we also know the Bills are either too gutless or too incompetent to position themselves for Luck in 2012, so we pretend like the plan is ridiculous.

 

Beyond the common sense issue of tanking and pillaging the roster for someone who might come out, and might be good......

 

You can't trade a player until the new CBA is reached. You also cannot trade for a 2012 draft pick until it is reached. All you can do is trade pick for pick in 2011 right now.

 

Sorry to shatter your dreams and bring you back down with us gutless incompetent people living in the real world.