Get ready for the second half of the year.....

[Magox]

Terrible day of global data.

 

Spanish Default swaps are at a record high, which basically highlights the problems in Europe.

 

Chinese leading indicators, that look out 6 months out were much worse than expected, (they are anticipating a slowdown, hopefully it wont be too bad)

 

And 10 year treasury yields are now below 3% and 2 year treasury yields are at a record low. Good news is that borrowing costs are super cheap, bad news is that this is a reflection of how bad things are, and that investors are not in the mood for taking any risks.

[Magox]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

 

4) Consumer confidence numbers havn't yet reflected the Stock markets plunge. Those numbers will come off some.

 

5) The uncertainty of European contagion.

 

6) Stimulus package has already peaked and it's artificial effects will show signs of deterioration Q3 and Q4

 

7) China is beginning to slow down (this could be really bad if they drop off significantly).

Todays numbers and data validate whats up above

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/s...et-to-cool.html

 

U.S. stocks slid, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling below its 2010 closing low, after a gauge of consumer confidence trailed economists’ estimates and concern grew that growth is slowing in China.

 

“It was shocking to me” that consumer confidence would be so low, said Randy Bateman, chief investment officer at Huntington Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio, which oversees $13.5 billion. “The consumer is still grappling with the fact that they have not saved enough and that joblessness is giving people concern about future prospects that we might go into a double dip.”

 

The Conference Board’s index of confidence among U.S. consumers slumped to 52.9 this month from a revised 62.7 in May as Americans became pessimistic about the outlook for the labor market and the economy, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast called for a decline to 62.5, and the gauge was lower than all projections in a Bloomberg News survey of 71 economists.

 

China Export ‘Headwinds’

 

China’s exports face “strong headwinds” in the second half of the year from policy tightening measures and the European debt crisis, reducing prospects of a rebound in the stock market, Citigroup Inc. said in a report obtained yesterday.

 

“China growth is ebbing,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. “If that’s the engine the world is looking at to pull us out of the doldrums then there’s been a disappointing number and disappointment there.”

 

Greece and Spain led a surge in the cost of insuring against losses on sovereign debt to near a record as protests over austerity measures and concern banks may struggle to fund themselves triggered a credit-market sell-off.

 

The cost of protecting euro zone peripheral government bonds against default rose on Tuesday, with Spanish credit default swaps at a record high on jitters over the funding situation of banks ahead of repayments to the European Central Bank later in the week.

 

Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) on Spanish government debt climbed 11 basis points on the day to a record 277 basis points, according to data provider Markit.

 

Five-year CDS on Portuguese government debt rose by 11 bps to 335 bps and for Italian bonds by 16 bps to 204 bps while that for Irish debt rose by 10 bps to 279 bps.

 

"Risk aversion in the ascendancy. Concerns about the European banking system ahead of the expiration of ECB 12-month liquidity facility on Thursday (is) weighing on the market," Markit analysts said in a note.

 

!@#$ing zombies, sometimes they can be a B word.

[Magox]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

2) Weekly jobless claims numbers have been indicating an anemic private sector labor force....

 

Todays ADP job numbers were very disappointing.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-30/u...d-adp-says.html

 

Companies in the U.S. added fewer workers in June than forecast, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.

 

The 13,000 gain was the smallest since February and followed a revised 57,000 increase the prior month, figures from ADP Employer Services showed today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a gain of 60,000, according to the median estimate.

 

Companies may be slow to add workers until there’s evidence the gains in demand will be sustained. Economists in a Bloomberg survey project a Labor Department report in two days will show payrolls fell this month due to a plunge in government employment of temporary workers conducting the census.

 

“We’re in a soft patch in the economy and employers are reluctant to hire,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Washington-based Woodley Park Research, whose ADP forecast of 23,000 was closest among economists surveyed. “It suggests non- government payrolls will be quite soft, well below what’s necessary to ensure a stable economic recovery.”

 

Projections in the Bloomberg survey of 36 economists ranged from 23,000 to 100,000 after a previously reported 55,000 gain in May.

 

“The recovery in the jobs market is very, very sluggish at this point,” Joel Prakken, chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, which produces the figures with ADP, said in a conference call. “There’s really no way to characterize this number other than disappointing.”

 

If there is anything that could be positive about this is that the ADP report and Labor Department jobs numbers many times show a large discrepancy between the two. Thats the best I got. Pretty disappointing.

 

On a brighter note

 

The ECB said European banks sought 131.9 billion euros ($161.8 billion) in three-month loans as a yearlong facility expires. The figure amounts to about half the level the market was expecting to be borrowed from the central bank, said Jacques Porta, a fund manager at Ofi Patrimoine.

 

“This amounts to the stress test the U.S. banking industry had last year and we didn’t,” said Paris-based Porta, who oversees about $425 million in stocks. “European banks are one of the weakest links in global equities. Investors were afraid the ECB would confirm this, so it’s good news.”

 

Looks like many of the banks needed less money than estimated, and that is possibly good news. Although those numbers came out ok, it really doesnt matter, Europe is !@#$ed.

 

Other news that you bulls can cling on to

 

Stocks are the cheapest relative to bonds in three decades, a sign it’s time to buy, Michael Darda, the chief economist for MKM Partners LLC, said in a phone interview.

 

“For the moment, the bulls are looking to pick up cheaper stock,” said Simon Denham, executive director at London Capital Group in London. “The S&P has made a habit of returning to the 1,035-to-1,040 level and traders may be actually looking for longs today so long as the index remains above this mark.”

 

Stocks are cheap, so there will always be buyers at these levels. So we will see if valuations weighs more on investors mind than the macroeconomy.

[IDBillzFan]

Todays ADP job numbers were very disappointing.

They better hope the census hired another half million people or June unemployment numbers are going to be brutal.

 

No, wait, it looks like they're starting to let them go now. Could we go over 10% again?

[John Adams]

They better hope the census hired another half million people or June unemployment numbers are going to be brutal.

 

No, wait, it looks like they're starting to let them go now. Could we go over 10% again?

 

I hate you for breaking the consecutive Magox post run.

[Chef Jim]

I hate you for breaking the consecutive Magox post run.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Well not that I hate him but I think you get the idea.

[/dev/null]

No, wait, it looks like they're starting to let them go now. Could we go over 10% again?

 

Nah. Once Unemployment benefits start expiring for people out of work so long, the rate will go down. And somebody will cheer the end of the Great Recession and the success of the Summer of Growth

[Magox]

I hate you for breaking the consecutive Magox post run.

You better get used to it

[Dwight Drane]

Everything's fine......

 

No worries.....

[Passepartout]

As they say, things will only go from bad to worse here! No matter who is elected in office.

[Magox]

As they say, things will only go from bad to worse here! No matter who is elected in office.

You are asbolutely correct. If the GOP comes back in to power I can assure you that our downturn will be even worse in the short to medium term because of all the deficit cutting measures. Our unemployment will be higher, GDP growth will be lower, and the reason is because a lot of the stimulus will come off which will cause sort of a hangover effect on the economy for quite some time.

 

Basically the Democrats strategy is sort of like a doctor treating a patient that has some sort of leg ailment, and constantly treating it with shots of cortizone. Sure it makes the leg feel better but it doesn't address the problem, and in fact damages the leg more over the long term. If the GOP comes back in to power, what they would do is stop treating the patients with the cortizone shots, which of course would make the patient feel worse, but would help stop the long term damage of the continous cortizone shots, but really doesn't help the patient recover as well.

 

More will need to be done. We need to create certainty for businesses, We need to reduce the deficit, which will hurt us over the short to medium term, we need to create a favorable environment for corporations and states, which would include lowering corporate tax rates and lowering union member benefits and we need to have great relations with countries that actually have strong growth like China, India, Brazil etc. This is our best hope for structurally improving our manufacturing markets through the export business.

 

Anyway, todays data so far has been pretty disappointing.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/g...ports-wane.html

 

Manufacturing growth from China to the euro-region slowed in June, suggesting the global export-led recovery is losing strength.

 

In China, manufacturing growth slowed more than economists forecast, and a gauge of factory output in the 16-member euro region weakened for a second month, two surveys showed. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index due today probably also declined, according to the median forecast of 79 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

 

Asian and European stocks fell on concern that a Chinese economic slowdown combined with deepening budget cuts from Spain to the U.K. may undermine the global recovery. While the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on May 26 raised its global growth forecast for this year, it said that a “boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out” in some countries.

 

“We expect data to soften from here,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “It’s going to raise some question marks about the outlook, about a double dip. It’s an environment with significant downside risks.”

 

China and Europe are slowing down, not good. This trend will continue

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/j...to-472-000.html

More Americans unexpectedly applied for jobless benefits last week, a sign the labor market recovery may be slowing.

 

Initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 26, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose, while those getting emergency benefits dropped after Congress failed to act on extending the legislation.

 

The jump in applications raises the risk that the turmoil in financial markets brought on by the European debt crisis is leading to additional cutbacks in staff. The Labor Department tomorrow may report the U.S. lost jobs in June for the first month this year, reflecting a drop in temporary federal workers who helped to conduct the decennial census.

 

“The labor market is not generating employment for anyone, even for people who have been out a long time,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, who forecast claims at 470,000. “What we’re seeing in the backup of claims is not a particularly healthy story, showing we can’t generate upside momentum in the labor market.”

 

Very troubling, initial jobless claims slightly trending higher. This in my view is the best indicator of our labor force that is out there.

[Magox]

A few more points of data:

 

U.S. stocks extended losses as data on manufacturing and home sales trailed economists’ estimates, fueling concern that the economic recovery is in peril.

 

The number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses plunged in May by 30 percent, more than twice as much as forecast, after a homebuyer tax credit expired. The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing slipped more than estimated to 56.2.

 

Manufacturing has been the strongest part of our economy. Inventories had been so depleted during the downturn simply because manufacturers had shut down, that there was a natural recovery replenishment cycle that has been helping our economy over the last few quarters. If this slows down, then this means our strongest growth engine will be taken away. This is actually the first sign of weakness during this "recovery" that I've seen yet. This is very potentially troubling.

 

Pending home sales plunged, that's really no surprise considering the other housing numbers. Congress is looking to extend the $8000 house credit, and most likely will pass sometime soon, I believe. This probably will give a boost, not in next months numbers but the months after. I wouldn't expect housing numbers moving forward to be lower than what we saw this month, the plunge was historic, but I wouldn't expect housing numbers to be that much better either. None the less, housing numbers WILL be weak over the next few months. Housing will be largely dependent on private sector hirings, if we have an anemic labor force recovery then the housing market will mirror that performance.

 

The silver lining in all this is that 30 year mortgage rates are 4.59%

 

edit: Not much of a stockpicker, but I do follow charts.... Looks as if 1025-1040 on the S&P was critical support. 940-950 may be downside target.

[IDBillzFan]

Very troubling, initial jobless claims slightly trending higher. This in my view is the best indicator of our labor force that is out there.

 

Looks like unemployment will jump to 9.8% tomorrow on total loss of 100K jobs. (Sorry, can't remember where I read that this morning.)

 

The Summer of Recovery is in full swing. All we need now is a Danny Zuko drive-in movie solo and it's on like Donkey Kong!

[Magox]

Looks like unemployment will jump to 9.8% tomorrow on total loss of 100K jobs. (Sorry, can't remember where I read that this morning.)

 

The Summer of Recovery is in full swing. All we need now is a Danny Zuko drive-in movie solo and it's on like Donkey Kong!

Tough to tell what the numbers will be tomorrow, many times they are erratic. Judging by the ADP private sector hirings and jobless claims numbers it would appear that tomorrows numbers could be weak, at least in the private sector, I would imagine. Tomorrows census hirings may distort the numbers one way or another.

 

But those projections that you cited is the consensus, we'll see.

[IDBillzFan]

Tough to tell what the numbers will be tomorrow, many times they are erratic. Judging by the ADP private sector hirings and jobless claims numbers it would appear that tomorrows numbers could be weak, at least in the private sector, I would imagine. Tomorrows census hirings may distort the numbers one way or another.

 

But those projections that you cited is the consensus, we'll see.

I've been trying to find the article again, but the concern is that the census workers are being laid off now. They got their big push last month from that hiring. I'll keep looking for the article.

[IDBillzFan]

Found the article here; at CNN Money.com

 

The Census Bureau has already started cutting the more than 500,000 temporary workers it brought on to do its count of the U.S. population. But as those jobs come to an end, economists believe it could be months before the private sector is hiring in droves again as it did earlier this year.

 

"Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to be a slow, painful grinding improvement in hiring," said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.

 

Many economists forecast that the private sector will add 100,000 jobs in June, far weaker than either March or April. Many say it could be late 2010 or even early 2011 before businesses will once again be adding 200,000 jobs in a month. The latest report on private sector hiring from payroll processor ADP was also worse than expected.

 

The weak private sector job growth, coupled with the loss of more than 200,000 census jobs in June, has economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecasting an overall loss of about 100,000 jobs for June. The government will release those figures Friday. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.8% from 9.7% in May.

[Magox]

Found the article here; at CNN Money.com

If China continues to slow down, which I believe they won't slow significantly ( I am bullish on China), and Europeans tangibly slow down due to their austerity measures, then our manufacturing sector will take a hit, which would slow down hirings and crimp those projections of 200,000 hirings a month late in the year or early 2011. It's tough to tell, the good news is that borrowing costs are going down without the Fed having to print more money, which is something that I thought was going to happen. One thing is for sure, Europe WILL slow down for the next couple years, and considering 30% of our exports go over to them, along with a strengthening dollar which hurts US exports, this will most likely be a drag on the economy.

 

My guess is that China will slow down, but that's a good thing, they were overheating, they needed to slow down. So, they probably will resume an uptick in their growth early next year. Unless of course we fall apart, which I don't foresee. I see us stalling over the next 6 months or so, and growing slowly next year. I don't subscribe to the double dip recession forcastes. There is a chance of that happening but I would say probably a 1 in 3 chance.

[Dave_In_Norfolk]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

1) Census workers will be coming back to the unemployment lines, or dropping out of the labor force.... See More

 

2) Weekly jobless claims numbers have been indicating an anemic private sector labor force....

 

3) $8000 tax home credit has expired, last months numbers showed a spike in sales, this will drop off dramatically in the next couple months.

 

4) Consumer confidence numbers havn't yet reflected the Stock markets plunge. Those numbers will come off some.

 

5) The uncertainty of European contagion.

 

6) Stimulus package has already peaked and it's artificial effects will show signs of deterioration Q3 and Q4

 

7) China is beginning to slow down (this could be really bad if they drop off significantly).

 

8) Uncertainty over the November elections, and the markets hate uncertainty.

 

9) Three voting Federal Reserve members are already suggesting that we raise rates some time soon (which I doubt will happen).

 

Lots of things to be wary of going into the second half of the year.

Local and state governments are going to have to keep cutting back on police, teachers, parks and everything else, so don'tlook for consumer confidence to be all that high, I see gas prices are actually falling! We could just be rolling right back into recession. Things not looking good at all.

[IDBillzFan]

Local and state governments are going to have to keep cutting back on police, teachers, parks and everything else, so don'tlook for consumer confidence to be all that high, I see gas prices are actually falling! We could just be rolling right back into recession. Things not looking good at all.

Y'know, I never understood why every time a city or state government has to cut costs, the first jobs to go are police, teachers and firefighters. Isn't there some paper that can be photocopied on both sides?

[Magox]

I was going to mention state and local budgets, but I misunderestimated the political climate that we are in. The crisis from Europe has helped heighten deficit awareness, of course those from the left call it is deficit phobia, and there is an argument to be made for the pain that will be caused through these austerity measures. In any case, it looks as if that there will be tremendous cuts in these budgets, which means that there will be lots of layoffs in the public sector. GOP doesn't support additional aid that adds to the deficit, they are willing to sign into law aid for states and local governments, but it has to fall under the Democrats proposed pay as you go legislation that they authored, or under monies already alotted under the "stimulus" bill.

 

It's amazing how the political will to pass these spending measures has disappeared over the last few months, and the W.H is awfully quiet when it comes to help pushing through these new pieces of legislation. Of course, they understand that the general public is wary of additional spending, specially when they see that the promises that were made under this administration have been WAY OFF THE MARK!! They have an election to win a couple years from now, so they are already beginning to look ahead.