Reaching in the draft

[RealityCheck]

I am a big believer in taking the best player available no matter what. However, recognizing who that player is at the time and predicting his future development is the trick. If anyone on these boards takes their 2nd to 20th hand opinions that seriously you should think about putting their money where their mouth is and start scouting for our team. I am not kidding either, our team needs help.

[Ramius]

Reach assumes an efficient marketplace. It assumes you can freely trade down and still select the player you're targeting, while picking up extra picks in the process. The problem with this concept is that the NFL is NOT an efficient marketplace. Few teams actually adhere to the so-called Draft Value Chart, there are barriers to free exchange (time limits, divisional rivalries, etc.), and there is far from perfect information on draft day - far from it.

 

But if you assume full information and the freedom to employ it by exchanging draft picks (like you would exchange goods), the concept of reaching makes perfect sense. It means you're giving up value for nothing in return.

 

So, what exactly does "value" get you. Take all the players out of the equation. How many wins can be attributed to value? None. Draft value never won a team anything.

[RealityCheck]

So, what exactly does "value" get you. Take all the players out of the equation. How many wins can be attributed to value? None. Draft value never won a team anything.

Don't give in to your bitterness, it is the path to the dark side.

[silvermike]

I think the textbook example of a reach isn't in the NFL at all, but when the Sabres drafted Artem Kriukov ten years ago. There's a player who not only didn't provide any value, but presented a risk that we could have invested a 2nd (or 8th) round pick on. But it's very, very rarely that clear. There are only 32 relevant draft boards in the world, and all of them are extremely secret. Sometimes leaks get out, but usually, everyone outside is just making best guesses, and rarely does a year go by when the mock-drafters don't all chain-react whenever Kiper updates the rankings.

 

So if the Bills draft Mike Iupati at #9, and Kiper had him at #45, it would be a reach if Kiper had an accurate prediction of the rest of the day. But if Jacksonville was going to take him at #10, it wasn't a reach at all. Team boards look different.

 

And none of this has to do with what happens any time after the draft. Reaches are completely a way to determine if the teams maximized value based on their subjective predictions on draft day. The important work comes to light when we see if they drafted good players, regardless of how and when.

[robertpaul49]

I think the biggest issue with draft value is that teams will try to outsmart the other teams. There is a lot of uncertainty with any player drafted because no-one including the player will know how they will respond to playing in the NFL. There will not be any individual consensus for a given player; however, there probably will be a group consensus. When a team selects a player higher, or significantly higher than that group consensus than the team reached. A team can reach for a player because of combine, an area of need, hype, etc.

 

Since the end result is relatively random, it might seem that draft value does not mean much. However, since it is more likely a player in the first round will be a pro-bowl, hall of fame player,etc., and the more draft picks a team has, the more likely they will pick up quality players later in the draft. It resembles blackjack since the team is playing the statistic percentages. Sometimes reaching works, like Elderin James, sometimes it doesn't like Whitner. Frankly, Whitner is not a bust. He is a good safety, just there were better options.

 

What is frustrating about the Bills is that they give up value for positions of need when the player may not actually resolve the problem, McCargo. Also, it seemed that they were trying to outsmart people, but stupid teams do stupid things, like the Lions and the like Levy saying they were going to emphasize character then draft Marshawn Lynch.

[Peter]

So, what exactly does "value" get you. Take all the players out of the equation. How many wins can be attributed to value? None. Draft value never won a team anything.

 

 

Talent does. That is why you do not reach for players that have less talent (i.e. that have less value).