Big Turk Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills are ranked 8th in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders at -7.2% overall. Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... DVOA ranks the defenses value per play. Here is an excerpt of how it is figured and what it means: "DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative" Guess everyone yelling about the defense sucked last year should bark up another tree...I consider it a minor miracle with the injuries that Fewell was able to do what he did...in comparison, Bills ranked 22nd in DVOA in 2008... Let the bashing begin... Defensive DVOA rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills are ranked 8th in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders at -7.2% overall. Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... DVOA ranks the defenses value per play. Here is an excerpt of how it is figured and what it means: "DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative" Guess everyone yelling about the defense sucked last year should bark up another tree...I consider it a minor miracle with the injuries that Fewell was able to do what he did...in comparison, Bills ranked 22nd in DVOA in 2008... Let the bashing begin... Defensive DVOA rankings I prefer the DVDA method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... No matter how you break down the numbers using a money ball method for football it still stands to reason our run defense sucks and we need to improve the front 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 We did have an above average defense this season, specifically we had a great pass defense. But our troubles stopping the run relegate us to merely a mediocre or "above average" rating overall. Good stats, though. There are a lot of cool things you can find out on that site that goes deeper than what you presented here. But good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... No matter how you break down the numbers using a money ball method for football it still stands to reason our run defense sucks and we need to improve the front 7 Yeah our run D did suck and needs to be improved, but our pass D was nothing less than stellar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 ive been saying this all along. D's only real problem was a terrible offense that couldnt score points and kept them on the field way too long. bills need offense ... it wouldnt bother me if we didn't make a single acquisition on defense in the draft or FA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manbeast Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 We did have an above average defense this season, specifically we had a great pass defense. But our troubles stopping the run relegate us to merely a mediocre or "above average" rating overall. Good stats, though. There are a lot of cool things you can find out on that site that goes deeper than what you presented here. But good post. The problem with our D was our O You run around for 10 minutes at full speed and see how you do let alone 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 No one who watched the team can honestly say the Bills D as thin and injured as it was, was the reason Buffalo lost a majority of its games last season. Despite the injuries we got more of a pass rush this season (No thanks to Aaron Maybin) and thanks to the secondary we got more turnovers. In the end our D had issues and was far from Super Bowl quality BUT our offense and special teams is what tanked our season not our D. Now if you look at our D there were a lot of games that teams put up 30 or more points on 41 (By the Titans), 38 (The 1st Dolphins game), 31 (By Houston) and 31 by the Falcons. There were also 2 games where teams put up more then 24 points on the Bills 27 by the Saints and 25 in the 1st Pats* game. So the Bills in 6 out of 16 games gave up more then 24 points. Now in only 1 other game did the Bills give up more then 20 points and that was the Tampa game and it was exactly 20 points. So in 10 out of 16 games all the Bills offense had to do to win the game was score more then 20 points and only 5 times this season the Bills offense did that and guess what in those games the Bills were 4-1 (With the only loss being the 1st New England game) AND 1 of those games came against a scrub Colts team. Also in 2 of the Bills 6 wins this season the Bills D had to hold opponents under 13 points (The 1st Jet game and the KC game). So the Bills D while terrible against the run was still able to provide the teams offense with plenty of opportunities to win games. The Bills also lost a game in which the team held its opponent to under 7 points (The Cleveland game) and games in which they held their opponent to 18 and 19 points (Jacksonville and the 2nd Jet game). If the Bills had a competent offense (Lets say ranked 19th in the league) and didn't make 1 special team miscue I would say they would have been 8-8 or 9-7 (They win the Cleveland game and the New England game, then they get a win in either the 2nd Jet game or Jacksonville) even if they loose 2 of those games they still go 8-8. So while I think the Bills could use help at OLB and on the D-line lets keep the focus of that number 9 pick on improving the offensive side of the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 I really hate to burst your bubble... The Bills Tampa 2 scheme sucks, it sucks against the run the most, but it still sucks overall. Why opposing O coordinators even try and throw against the Bills when they know they can easily run against the worst defense against the run. The pass rush was decent and the secondary played pretty well considering all the injuries. The defensive passing stats are skewed because of a few games in particular. The Browns game with high winds and they only completed TWO passes the entire game out of 17 attempts, the stats after that week put the Bills #2 against the pass in the NFL because of the weather. To bad the Bills still lost that game 3-6 The Jets game where the OC let a rookie keep throwing the ball up in bad weather and allowed him to be intercepted 5 times, kinda funny considering the Bills couldn't stop the Jets ground game at any point. Jones had 210 yds rushing, Washington had 99 yards rushing, why they chose to throw at all is beyond me. The Panthers game where they have a brutal running attack and yet they let Jake D throw it around for INT's, kinda stupid huh. If they played them again after Jake gets injured, its a blowout for the Panthers. My take is that the Bills were more lucky this season in the secondary, more then they were good. Special teams were woeful most of the year and the offense was down right horrid. The Tampa 2 has been terrible against the run every year and under Jauron, so then the Bills draft a puny DE with the very first pick last year, figures... That win against the Colts, with Payton Manning on the bench and the Colt backups in the game, they gave the Bills the game to keep their players healthy. They let Curtis Painter throw it....Curtis Painter Bottom line... Points for 258, Points against 326 says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 The Tampa-2 Vikings were 2nd against the run this year. It's a system that requires good, powerful defensive linemen to be successful, which is why it's a mystery the Bills have put such a low priority on the position. Minnesota spent a top-10 pick on a DT, signed the top DT in free agency, and traded for an all-star DE. The great Bears' cover-2 teams had a dominant D-line. The Colts defense had a dominant d-line. The great Tampa cover-2 team had a dominant line. The truth about defense is that if you have a great defensive line, it doesn't matter what scheme you run behind it. After that, you play to talent. But Buddy Nix better be able to acquire better talent than John McCargo and Aaron Maybin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Our offense is at or near the bottom in yardage and points scored. Our offense was last in time of possession. Nuf said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drg2021 Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 I prefer the DVDA method. Yea i prefer the dvr method myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 The defense was not the major problem last year, despite the rush defense. The differential between offensive and defensive plays was 68, which is the equivalent of about 3-1/2 games. Given the injuries, it's amazing they did as well as they did. Still, unless it's perfect, it could stand to be improved. And if they want to go to a 3-4, they'll need several new players. But given the needs on offense, I can't see them trying to revamp the defense this off-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VADC Bills Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 I really hate to burst your bubble... The Bills Tampa 2 scheme sucks, it sucks against the run the most, but it still sucks overall. Why opposing O coordinators even try and throw against the Bills when they know they can easily run against the worst defense against the run. The pass rush was decent and the secondary played pretty well considering all the injuries. The defensive passing stats are skewed because of a few games in particular. The Browns game with high winds and they only completed TWO passes the entire game out of 17 attempts, the stats after that week put the Bills #2 against the pass in the NFL because of the weather. To bad the Bills still lost that game 3-6 The Jets game where the OC let a rookie keep throwing the ball up in bad weather and allowed him to be intercepted 5 times, kinda funny considering the Bills couldn't stop the Jets ground game at any point. Jones had 210 yds rushing, Washington had 99 yards rushing, why they chose to throw at all is beyond me. The Panthers game where they have a brutal running attack and yet they let Jake D throw it around for INT's, kinda stupid huh. If they played them again after Jake gets injured, its a blowout for the Panthers. My take is that the Bills were more lucky this season in the secondary, more then they were good. Special teams were woeful most of the year and the offense was down right horrid. The Tampa 2 has been terrible against the run every year and under Jauron, so then the Bills draft a puny DE with the very first pick last year, figures... That win against the Colts, with Payton Manning on the bench and the Colt backups in the game, they gave the Bills the game to keep their players healthy. They let Curtis Painter throw it....Curtis Painter Bottom line... Points for 258, Points against 326 says it all Not sure if your saying the Tampa 2 sucks or the Bills Tampa 2 sucks. Tampa 2 is a good scheme although I would like to see a change. We just don't have the front seven to run it properly. Talent is our problem which will keep us from being good in any type of defense. We have to get bigger and better players at DL and LB. Our secondary was very opportunistic which is good because quite a few interceptions occurred when the QB had time to throw. The secondary will only get better once we get a better pass rush. Trust me the only reason our pass rush statistically looked decent was because teams didn't have to throw to beat us, they could run so easily. The Browns proved that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfaninFl Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills are ranked 8th in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders at -7.2% overall. Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... DVOA ranks the defenses value per play. Here is an excerpt of how it is figured and what it means: "DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative" Guess everyone yelling about the defense sucked last year should bark up another tree...I consider it a minor miracle with the injuries that Fewell was able to do what he did...in comparison, Bills ranked 22nd in DVOA in 2008... Let the bashing begin... Defensive DVOA rankings Why is it a surprise? Several guys and gals on this board have already stated that they didn't believe our defense was the Bills' biggest problem. Personally, while I prefer a different scheme, I think the D played well enough (in spite of the injuries and being undersized). IMO, if the defense was on the field only as long as the average time in the league, we would not have seen so many fourth quarter collapses, when many opponents had a lot of rushing yards and multiple scores. I still say we need bigger players in the front seven no matter what scheme the Bills use. And I am convinced that the team would win more games (especially in the AFC East), if they used a 3-4 alignment. But it's hard to be very critical of the job the Bills' defense did, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperKillerRobots Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Bills pass defense DVOA ranked 3rd at -21.3% while the Bills run D was 26th at 5.6%... No matter how you break down the numbers using a money ball method for football it still stands to reason our run defense sucks and we need to improve the front 7 Bingo - give the man his turkey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFL Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 I prefer the DVDA method. awesome orgazmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostyle126 Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 As others have said, the defense isn't running a scheme that matches its strengths. A Tampa-2 requires a dominant front four. Ours isn't even average. We cannot generate pressure with a four-man rush. So what's the answer? IMO the answer is an aggressive forty-six hybrid defense (something Gregg Williams and Dick Lebeau can draw up in their sleep) that gives the front four help with constant blitzes and zone dogs, while challenging the secondary by putting DBs on islands with receivers and little help over the top. This defense would force opposing offenses to challenge our strengths. It would mask our weaknesses by bringing pressure more often. And, maybe best of all, it would limit the amount of time the D is on the field, because the forty-six is a 'high risk, high reward' defense. You might get burned sometimes, but more often than not you wreak havoc on your opponent, often creating turnovers...it's not a bend-but-don't-break philosophy that results in 10-minute drives against your tired D. Perfect fit for our talent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince61 Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1 NFL.com ranks Bills defense at 19 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted January 7, 2010 Share Posted January 7, 2010 Well, considering that the Colts and Chargers, who are and have been consistently the best offenses in the league,rank 32nd and 31st respectively in rushing offense....I suppose that not being able to stop the run matters all that much. However, not being able to stop the pass, when you look at who is always top 10 in passing = the perennial playoff teams, is much more devastating..... Look, I know most of us grew up listening to Bill Parcells, John Madden, and all the rest with the tired old "run and stop the run" mantra.... The simple fact is: this is not 1985. Deal with it. Every year the running game becomes less and less important. Use my link and tell me how many top 10 running teams are making the playoffs, and compare that to how many top 10 passing teams are....and thus ends the Bill Parcells argument. These days, at best, a good running game with a mediocre passing game only gets you to mediocre, just ask the 7-9 Miami Dolphins. Don't like that example? Then ask yourself: Why is it that with Adrian Peterson and that O line, the Vikings have finally gotten good, not mediocre, now that they have been throwing the ball more than they run it? This is the new reality....time to accept it and realize that we need to continue to be as good as we can be against the PASS, FIRST, before anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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