Buff News- Maturing Talent jells for Texans- compared to Bills

[Red]

There is a nice article in today's Buffalo News about the recent success of the Texans; our opponent this coming Sunday. Talks about the success the Texans have had in drafting and KEEPING their 1st round draft picks within the last 8 years of their existence.

 

Here are the Bills 1st round draft picks, this decade:

 

2000- Erik Flowers- no longer with team (is he even in the NFL anymore?)

2001- Nate Clements- no longer with team (left as free agent to San Francisco)

2002- Mike Williams- no longer with team (One of the biggest busts (literally and figuratively) in Donahoe and NFL)

2003- Willis McGahee- no longer with team (Sent packing to Baltimore- good riddance)

2004- Lee Evans- still with team (currently struggling despite contract)

2004- JP Losman- no longer with team (currently playing for Las Vegas in minor league football)

2005- No first round pick

2006- Donte Whitner- still with team (playing status in question with emergence of Byrd)

2007- John McCargo- still with team (but a tremendous waste of a 1st round pick and will most likely be gone after this year)

2008- Leodis McElvin- still with team

2009- Aaron Maybin- still with team

2009- Eric Wood- still with team

 

Now, in contrast to the Texans, based on today's Buffalo News article:

 

www.buffalonews.com/sports/story/845496.

 

"The Texans are a team on the rise because of some outstanding drafts and shrewd free agent acquisitions. Six of their seven first-rounders are still with the team. They missed on quarterback David Carr, the No. 1 overall selection in 2002, but they hit home runs with Johnson (2003), Robinson (2004), Williams (2006), defensive tackle Amobi Okoye (2007), Brown (2008) and linebacker Brian Cushing (2009).

 

Johnson in particular has achieved superstar status. A physical specimen with great size and speed, the 6-foot-3, 225-pounder led the league in catches (115) and receiving yards (1,575) last season, and is first in yards (634 on 38 catches) this year. The only player to reach 500 career catches in fewer games than Johnson's 88 was Arizona's Anquan Boldin (80).

 

Another high-profile pick was Williams, whose No. 1 overall selection in 2006 created controversy as Texans fans coveted University of Texas quarterback and Houston native Vince Young. But Williams silenced critics by becoming the dominant pass rusher the team envisioned he would be with 36.5 sacks in three-plus seasons.

 

Robinson is the Texans' career leader with 13 interceptions. There have been signs of future stardom from Okoye, the youngest player drafted into the NFL at age 19, Brown and Cushing, who leads all rookies with a team-high 56 tackles.

 

The Texans have connected on players after Round One as well. Ryans was a second-round steal. Slaton, starting right tackle Eric Winston and wide receiver-return ace Jacoby Jones were terrific third-round finds. Pro Bowl tight end Owen Daniels was a hidden gem in the fourth round.

 

"The way you build in this league is through the draft," Kubiak said. "That's obviously the route that we decided to start taking four years ago. We put these guys to work right away. They were starting from Day One.

 

"Obviously, if you miss on some of those draft choices that could set you back a long, long way. We've been very fortunate that these guys are doing their job and look like they have some bright futures."

It also helps when free agent signings work out. The Texans' boldest move was their 2007 trade with Atlanta for Schaub, who spent three years backing up Michael Vick. In addition to swapping first-round draft picks, the Texans gave up second-round picks in 2007 and 2008. Then they signed Schaub to a six-year, $48 million contract.

 

After two injury-plagued years, Schaub is having a huge '09 season, leading the NFL in passing yards (2,074) and touchdowns (16)."

 

So, let's look at the Bills success of drafting 1st round success statistically for this decade.

 

Out of 12 1st round draft picks, 5 are no longer with the team (41.7%)

 

1 was traded away for the rights to Losman (8.3%)

 

6 are technically still with the team, but due to the Bills attempting to trade McCargo last year to Indy and his lack of playing time this year, I will not count him as "being on the team".

 

Therefore, 5 are still with the team (41.7%)

 

Even with that number, will the Bills retain Whitner once he recovers from his injury? They moved him to FS with Scott playing SS for a bigger body in the secondary to provide run support, but with the emergence of Byrd does Whitner get onto the field as a starter anymore? Would his contract then make him a rather expensive back-up and does if Byrd continues does this spend the end of Whitner and, therefore, another 1st round pick no longer with the team?

 

If McCargo is released after this season, that would put the number of players at 6 that are 1st round draft picks no longer with the team and moving the ratio to 50% rate of failure. Put Whitner in there, and the rate of failure jumps to 58.3%. Add that with the draft pick traded away for Losman and that jumps to a 66.6% rate of failure for the draft "experts" at OBD.

 

In simpler terms, the Bills are attempting to build a team with a success rate of 1/3, or 33.3%. If what the Texans Kubiak says is true in terms of building a team through the draft, the Bills are killing themselves.

 

Wood looks like the real deal, and McKelvin seems to be solid as well. But Maybin is also struggling for playing time- granted, he did hold out all of training camp and as per Fewell, opposing defenses are focusing on attacking Buffalo's inferior run defense- thus eliminating the need for a pass-rush specialist such as Maybin. So, it is still too early to quit on Maybin...yet.

 

But does this make enough of a case that Modrak should go?

[Thoner7]

I dont know who is in charge of our drafting in the top 3 rounds, but he should be fired. I dont know who is in charge of drafting in the later rounds, but he should be promoted. Guys like Butler, K.Williams, and McGee are the cornerstones of this team (not to mention other selcetions like Greer and J.Leonard who have left). Others like Nelson, Corner, Harris, Ellis, Lankster, S. Johnson are young and have promise. Our late round selections out perform our early round guys. Our scouting department needs a lot of help, but not a 100% overhaul. Maybe bring in someone to fix the first 2-3 rounds, and let the others continue to find late round gems.

[Red]

I dont know who is in charge of our drafting in the top 3 rounds, but he should be fired. I dont know who is in charge of drafting in the later rounds, but he should be promoted. Guys like Butler, K.Williams, and McGee are the cornerstones of this team (not to mention other selcetions like Greer and J.Leonard who have left). Others like Nelson, Corner, Harris, Ellis, Lankster, S. Johnson are young and have promise. Our late round selections out perform our early round guys. Our scouting department needs a lot of help, but not a 100% overhaul. Maybe bring in someone to fix the first 2-3 rounds, and let the others continue to find late round gems.

 

I will agree that the later rounds are more successful than the 1st 3.

 

Peters and Greer were undrafted. As was Moorman. Fred Jackson is another. 2 are no longer with the team, but they have had relative success with undrafted free agents.

 

I do like Butler and Williams, and you are right that the secondary has been a relative gold-mine of late round finds.

 

The issue is that the money is clearly at the first rounds of the draft. The organization cannot continue to squander its first round draft choices as not only do those choices provide the greater impetus to change immediately in the "win now!" NFL, but the vast amount of dollars being invested in the promise of these players clearly offsets contracts to veteran players and affects the teams overall bottom line.

 

Though I do agree with you that whomever is drafting the Bills picks in rounds 1-3 needs to be fired ASAP. I would also agree that the drafters of rounds 4-7 should be considered for promotion.

 

The only issue with that, is that they are probably the same person.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The part of the article that jumped out at me was this:

 

"I feel that until you have a player at the quarterback position that you're comfortable with and you're confident that you can win with, you're in some respect spinning your wheels," said Smith, who brokered the Schaub trade in his first year as GM. "We were very diligent about looking at the available options. It was a gutsy trade at the time, but we were fortunate it worked out for us and Matt is playing at the level he is now."

 

The part about Schaub reminded me that when they traded for Schaub, he'd started only 2 games in three years for Atlanta. Houston gave up two 2nd round picks and a swap of late round picks to acquire him.

 

That trade is eerily (hey, it's Halloween) similar in compensation and circumstance to the Bills' acquisition of Rob Johnson years ago. However, just as the Texans have outperformed us somewhat in drafting, they also got a better quarterback via trade than we did.

 

Again, via a regime change or a serious influx of talent in the football department, this team is just "spinning their wheels."

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

The part of the article that jumped out at me was this:

 

"I feel that until you have a player at the quarterback position that you're comfortable with and you're confident that you can win with, you're in some respect spinning your wheels," said Smith, who brokered the Schaub trade in his first year as GM. "We were very diligent about looking at the available options. It was a gutsy trade at the time, but we were fortunate it worked out for us and Matt is playing at the level he is now."

 

This is exactly right. This team will never be stable until we find a QB. We need a leader on the field at the position. Once you do it on the field you can be any kind of leader in the locker room. We get duped by guys like Losman and Trent because they say the right things, but when you can't do it on the field no one is listening. We can sign a free agent DT, pass rushing specialist, biggest fastest WR's, whatever, without Quarterback play your "spinning wheels". We just gotta keep looking, we need to pick the best one available in next years draft, and try again.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Bills = perennial 7-9 team

Texans = perennial 8-8 team

 

I'm not sure that the Texans have anything to toot their horn about; they're about as average and irrelevant as the Bills, only we always seem to beat them when we play.

[MRW]

Bills = perennial 7-9 team

Texans = perennial 8-8 team

 

I'm not sure that the Texans have anything to toot their horn about; they're about as average and irrelevant as the Bills, only we always seem to beat them when we play.

Yeah, I posted something similar in the other thread where this was posted. The Texans have some good players in Johnson and Williams in particular, and Schaub is pretty good, but why are we supposed to look enviously at their drafting record when they've never even had a winning season? Maybe this will finally be their year, but on the other hand they're only 4-3 coming into this game.

[JohnC]

Yeah, I posted something similar in the other thread where this was posted. The Texans have some good players in Johnson and Williams in particular, and Schaub is pretty good, but why are we supposed to look enviously at their drafting record when they've never even had a winning season? Maybe this will finally be their year, but on the other hand they're only 4-3 coming into this game.

 

Discussing whether Houston drafts well or is a well managed franchise is not the point. The central point is that the Bills have not been able to escape the quagmire of mediocrity is indisputable. The best way, if not the only way, to judge the success of a franchise is through its record over an extended period of time. Over the past decade, prior to this season, the Bills ranked 29 out of 32 teams with a record of 60-82 and a winning percentage of .417.

 

What is very odd about our struggling franchise is that Modrak (college scouting) and Guy (pro scouting) have been with this organization through its dismal decade as primary scouts. Both of these individuals were brought in by Tom Donahoe and both are still entrenched in their positions.

 

 

A number of professional analysts have stated tha the Bills' organizational structure is not built to succeed on the field, compared to being successful on the ledger sheets. Presently, there is no strong GM whose central responsibility is player personnel acquisitions through the draft and free agency. The reason for this type of odd orgainzaiotal structure is that Ralph Wilson got very frustrated with the strong man style of Tom Donahoe. He got so spooked that he replaced him with the congenial Levy and designed an organizational structure which was very decentralized. Levy's stint in the organization was an untter disaster. There should be no surprise because he wasn't equipped to handle such major responsibilites, especially since he was mostly out of the NFL for approximately five years. Levy's replacement was Russ Brandon who previously worked in the marketing section of the organization.

 

The Bills have had a strong GM style under Bill Polian. The Bills went to a string of consecutive SB appearnaces under his guidance. But the owner let him go because of the constant conflicts with his finance people within the organization. There is no surprise that Bill Polian over the last decade has led the Colts to a ranking of three out of 32 teams for wins. He knows what he is doing.

 

 

There are no quick fixes to this bumbling franchise until someone who is very a competent football person takes over a more conventional GM role in this organization. The organizational structure as it presently stands is designed by the owner. This is what he wanted, and this is what he got. As long as the owner prefers this nonsensical organizational structure the team will continue to slide.

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

If I remember reading the paper correctly, the Texans have scored at least 21 points in six of their seven games this year? Is that right?

 

Bills haven't reached 21 points since week 2.

 

 

each week points for: 24, 33, 7, 10, 3, 16, 20

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Bills = perennial 7-9 team

Texans = perennial 8-8 team

 

I'm not sure that the Texans have anything to toot their horn about; they're about as average and irrelevant as the Bills, only we always seem to beat them when we play.

It's not like the Texans are a model franchise...but Ralph Wilson has owned this team for 50 years while the Texans have been in existence only 8 years. Also, which roster would you rather have? IMO, these are the salient points when comparing the two teams.

[VADC Bills]

There is a nice article in today's Buffalo News about the recent success of the Texans; our opponent this coming Sunday. Talks about the success the Texans have had in drafting and KEEPING their 1st round draft picks within the last 8 years of their existence.

 

Here are the Bills 1st round draft picks, this decade:

 

2000- Erik Flowers- no longer with team (is he even in the NFL anymore?)

2001- Nate Clements- no longer with team (left as free agent to San Francisco)

2002- Mike Williams- no longer with team (One of the biggest busts (literally and figuratively) in Donahoe and NFL)

2003- Willis McGahee- no longer with team (Sent packing to Baltimore- good riddance)

2004- Lee Evans- still with team (currently struggling despite contract)

2004- JP Losman- no longer with team (currently playing for Las Vegas in minor league football)

2005- No first round pick

2006- Donte Whitner- still with team (playing status in question with emergence of Byrd)

2007- John McCargo- still with team (but a tremendous waste of a 1st round pick and will most likely be gone after this year)

2008- Leodis McElvin- still with team

2009- Aaron Maybin- still with team

2009- Eric Wood- still with team

 

Now, in contrast to the Texans, based on today's Buffalo News article:

 

www.buffalonews.com/sports/story/845496.

 

"The Texans are a team on the rise because of some outstanding drafts and shrewd free agent acquisitions. Six of their seven first-rounders are still with the team. They missed on quarterback David Carr, the No. 1 overall selection in 2002, but they hit home runs with Johnson (2003), Robinson (2004), Williams (2006), defensive tackle Amobi Okoye (2007), Brown (2008) and linebacker Brian Cushing (2009).

 

Johnson in particular has achieved superstar status. A physical specimen with great size and speed, the 6-foot-3, 225-pounder led the league in catches (115) and receiving yards (1,575) last season, and is first in yards (634 on 38 catches) this year. The only player to reach 500 career catches in fewer games than Johnson's 88 was Arizona's Anquan Boldin (80).

 

Another high-profile pick was Williams, whose No. 1 overall selection in 2006 created controversy as Texans fans coveted University of Texas quarterback and Houston native Vince Young. But Williams silenced critics by becoming the dominant pass rusher the team envisioned he would be with 36.5 sacks in three-plus seasons.

 

Robinson is the Texans' career leader with 13 interceptions. There have been signs of future stardom from Okoye, the youngest player drafted into the NFL at age 19, Brown and Cushing, who leads all rookies with a team-high 56 tackles.

 

The Texans have connected on players after Round One as well. Ryans was a second-round steal. Slaton, starting right tackle Eric Winston and wide receiver-return ace Jacoby Jones were terrific third-round finds. Pro Bowl tight end Owen Daniels was a hidden gem in the fourth round.

 

"The way you build in this league is through the draft," Kubiak said. "That's obviously the route that we decided to start taking four years ago. We put these guys to work right away. They were starting from Day One.

 

"Obviously, if you miss on some of those draft choices that could set you back a long, long way. We've been very fortunate that these guys are doing their job and look like they have some bright futures."

It also helps when free agent signings work out. The Texans' boldest move was their 2007 trade with Atlanta for Schaub, who spent three years backing up Michael Vick. In addition to swapping first-round draft picks, the Texans gave up second-round picks in 2007 and 2008. Then they signed Schaub to a six-year, $48 million contract.

 

After two injury-plagued years, Schaub is having a huge '09 season, leading the NFL in passing yards (2,074) and touchdowns (16)."

 

So, let's look at the Bills success of drafting 1st round success statistically for this decade.

 

Out of 12 1st round draft picks, 5 are no longer with the team (41.7%)

 

1 was traded away for the rights to Losman (8.3%)

 

6 are technically still with the team, but due to the Bills attempting to trade McCargo last year to Indy and his lack of playing time this year, I will not count him as "being on the team".

 

Therefore, 5 are still with the team (41.7%)

 

Even with that number, will the Bills retain Whitner once he recovers from his injury? They moved him to FS with Scott playing SS for a bigger body in the secondary to provide run support, but with the emergence of Byrd does Whitner get onto the field as a starter anymore? Would his contract then make him a rather expensive back-up and does if Byrd continues does this spend the end of Whitner and, therefore, another 1st round pick no longer with the team?

 

If McCargo is released after this season, that would put the number of players at 6 that are 1st round draft picks no longer with the team and moving the ratio to 50% rate of failure. Put Whitner in there, and the rate of failure jumps to 58.3%. Add that with the draft pick traded away for Losman and that jumps to a 66.6% rate of failure for the draft "experts" at OBD.

 

In simpler terms, the Bills are attempting to build a team with a success rate of 1/3, or 33.3%. If what the Texans Kubiak says is true in terms of building a team through the draft, the Bills are killing themselves.

 

Wood looks like the real deal, and McKelvin seems to be solid as well. But Maybin is also struggling for playing time- granted, he did hold out all of training camp and as per Fewell, opposing defenses are focusing on attacking Buffalo's inferior run defense- thus eliminating the need for a pass-rush specialist such as Maybin. So, it is still too early to quit on Maybin...yet.

 

But does this make enough of a case that Modrak should go?

With all that being Houston is not a playoff team and just started looking like a real team with the acquisition and growth of Matt Shaub. Where the Bills need to improve in many areas our quartebacking is what is hurting the team most. It reminds me of the Rob Johnson Bills. Remember our receivers were getting old, our OL needed to be upgraded and when Doug Flutie stepped in they looked like a different team. Our line was holding blocks and Eric Mould emerged. All of the WR and OL talk went away. When Johnson came back in they looked like a bad team again.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Bump

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

If I remember reading the paper correctly, the Texans have scored at least 21 points in six of their seven games this year? Is that right?

 

Bills haven't reached 21 points since week 2.

 

 

each week points for: 24, 33, 7, 10, 3, 16, 20

 

 

oh lookie here, it happened again.

 

The Buffalo PredictaBills.

[BillnutinHouston]

There are no quick fixes to this bumbling franchise until someone who is very a competent football person takes over a more conventional GM role in this organization. The organizational structure as it presently stands is designed by the owner. This is what he wanted, and this is what he got. As long as the owner prefers this nonsensical organizational structure the team will continue to slide.

 

THIS IS THE POST OF THE DAY FOLKS. Yes Jauron is a poor head coach and deserves to go, but the real problems are much more systemic and deeply rooted than who is the head coach.

 

Any head coach who opts into this organization as its currently structured, is one who has no clout and who is just happy to BE a head coach. Any HC candidate that has real chops in the league will steer clear of Buffalo.

[Red]

Discussing whether Houston drafts well or is a well managed franchise is not the point. The central point is that the Bills have not been able to escape the quagmire of mediocrity is indisputable. The best way, if not the only way, to judge the success of a franchise is through its record over an extended period of time. Over the past decade, prior to this season, the Bills ranked 29 out of 32 teams with a record of 60-82 and a winning percentage of .417.

 

What is very odd about our struggling franchise is that Modrak (college scouting) and Guy (pro scouting) have been with this organization through its dismal decade as primary scouts. Both of these individuals were brought in by Tom Donahoe and both are still entrenched in their positions.

 

 

A number of professional analysts have stated tha the Bills' organizational structure is not built to succeed on the field, compared to being successful on the ledger sheets. Presently, there is no strong GM whose central responsibility is player personnel acquisitions through the draft and free agency. The reason for this type of odd orgainzaiotal structure is that Ralph Wilson got very frustrated with the strong man style of Tom Donahoe. He got so spooked that he replaced him with the congenial Levy and designed an organizational structure which was very decentralized. Levy's stint in the organization was an untter disaster. There should be no surprise because he wasn't equipped to handle such major responsibilites, especially since he was mostly out of the NFL for approximately five years. Levy's replacement was Russ Brandon who previously worked in the marketing section of the organization.

 

The Bills have had a strong GM style under Bill Polian. The Bills went to a string of consecutive SB appearnaces under his guidance. But the owner let him go because of the constant conflicts with his finance people within the organization. There is no surprise that Bill Polian over the last decade has led the Colts to a ranking of three out of 32 teams for wins. He knows what he is doing.

 

 

There are no quick fixes to this bumbling franchise until someone who is very a competent football person takes over a more conventional GM role in this organization. The organizational structure as it presently stands is designed by the owner. This is what he wanted, and this is what he got. As long as the owner prefers this nonsensical organizational structure the team will continue to slide.

 

 

Which is really the central point of my argument.

 

Modrak and Guy have been the only 2 constants over multiple QB's, coaches, and even 2 GM's.

 

You are correct in your assessment of the structure being the issue.

 

I believe that a real, proven, football GM needs to be put in place.

 

Modrak and Guy, in all of their futility, should be gone. I like Buddy nix coming back to the team last year. He should be in charge of the draft.

 

Former Tampa GM Allen was recently rumored with the Bills. I would hardly discount him as not being worthy of consideration .

[Red]

THIS IS THE POST OF THE DAY FOLKS. Yes Jauron is a poor head coach and deserves to go, but the real problems are much more systemic and deeply rooted than who is the head coach.

 

Any head coach who opts into this organization as its currently structured, is one who has no clout and who is just happy to BE a head coach. Any HC candidate that has real chops in the league will steer clear of Buffalo.

 

I would also say quality free agent, as well.

 

But I agree. Anyone calling for Jauron's head should also be calling for Modrak and Guy's.

[MRW]

Which is really the central point of my argument.

 

Modrak and Guy have been the only 2 constants over multiple QB's, coaches, and even 2 GM's.

 

You are correct in your assessment of the structure being the issue.

 

I believe that a real, proven, football GM needs to be put in place.

 

Modrak and Guy, in all of their futility, should be gone. I like Buddy nix coming back to the team last year. He should be in charge of the draft.

 

Former Tampa GM Allen was recently rumored with the Bills. I would hardly discount him as not being worthy of consideration .

Now that I'll agree on. It won't happen, but the only way I see the Bills really getting it together is finding the right guy to run football operations and letting him do it without having to answer to five different people.

 

Having said that, if you luck into the right guy at coach or QB I do believe that can paper over a lot of deficiencies. It's just that your odds of that happening in a mismanaged organization are abysmal.

[JohnC]

Which is really the central point of my argument.

 

Modrak and Guy have been the only 2 constants over multiple QB's, coaches, and even 2 GM's.

 

You are correct in your assessment of the structure being the issue.

 

I believe that a real, proven, football GM needs to be put in place.

 

Modrak and Guy, in all of their futility, should be gone. I like Buddy nix coming back to the team last year. He should be in charge of the draft.

 

Former Tampa GM Allen was recently rumored with the Bills. I would hardly discount him as not being worthy of consideration .

 

Red, You missed out on the primary constant is your posting: the baron owner of the bills. The organizational structure doesn't exist out of happenstance. It was designed by the owner. As bad as the Bills are on the field the team has been exceedingly successful as a profit center. Despite the fact that the Bills were extremely successful under the tenure of Bill Polian, he was let go. Not because he didn't build a stunningly successful team but because this strongwilled GM conflicted with Ralph's boys, the finance people.

 

No one should be surprised that the Bills front office regime and staff have been relatively stable during the dismal decade. The owner believes in continuity, especially when it is profitable for him.

 

I don't want you to misunderstand me. I'm not critical of anyone making a good profit on a venture. But show a little pride and have some respect for the loyal fans of your team. They deserve much better than the garbage you have been feeding them for almost a generation.

[JohnC]

Which is really the central point of my argument.

 

Modrak and Guy have been the only 2 constants over multiple QB's, coaches, and even 2 GM's.

 

You are correct in your assessment of the structure being the issue.

 

I believe that a real, proven, football GM needs to be put in place.

 

Modrak and Guy, in all of their futility, should be gone. I like Buddy nix coming back to the team last year. He should be in charge of the draft.

 

Former Tampa GM Allen was recently rumored with the Bills. I would hardly discount him as not being worthy of consideration .

 

Red, Another name you can add to your list as good candidates to take over the football operations is Floyd Reese. He was involved in rebuilding Tenn into a very strong organization. Although they are struggling somewhat this year. He got caught up in a power struggle with the HC, Fischer, and he is now working with the Pats.

 

A few years ago when covering the draft as an NFL analyst he made the cogent and mocking observation about the Bills' draft and personnel decisions: He said: I'm sure they have a plan but I haven't figured it out. Everyone on the panel laughed at his on the mark assessment on how the Bills operate. There is no direction and structure on how they make decisions.

[silvermike]

Look on the bright side - only one of our first rounders in the past decade has left for a big contract somewhere else!