HalftimeAdjustment

While I lack your certainty in these figures, I tend to agree it could easily be close to that and that most cases will occur before the playoffs.

Paging Chad Kelly...

I agree with that rationale, and it was effective at increasing vaccination rates. So now that they made changes anyhow in the face of changing circumstances, they might as well change this rule, too. After all those who got vaccinated can't undo it and those who haven't aren't going to. Why not make it easier on themselves, for example by letting unvaxxed players test out with sufficient number of negative tests rather than a fixed 10 day rule? Granted, most of them will not test out much quicker, but at this point the NFL's priorities have shifted to player availability so I think they should lean in.

Good point. The value of 15 represented one speaker's opinion and not any kind of established fact.

There is ALWAYS alarmism in the media with regards to this topic. However, all preliminary data indicates that this variant can out-spread Delta and there appears to be widespread agreement on that subject from scientific and public health authorities, not just from news reports. This appears to be based both on immune escape and pure transmissibility factors.

I agree. I also think players with highly contagious serious diseases should not play (insert sport here) while they are highly contagious. I understand why the NFL has decided to, in my opinion, partially bury its head in the sand and assume that vaccinated asymptomatic players are not contagious, even though the evidence for that is ... ?. What I really don't understand is the "negative tests" criteria. It seems like any asymptomatic player who tests negative a sufficient number of times should be eligible to return to play if the focus is on safety - regardless of vaccination status. Are they basically not trusting the tests? I have heard of false negatives, but isn't that why they repeat them?

It's definitely bad luck. Of course, he could have Delta, breakthrough cases were happening with increasing frequency anyhow, hence the boosters. But it does feel like an anomaly when you look at his age and overall health. Hopefully he makes a strong recovery now.

The original statement was that "virtually everyone" would be positive. There isn't a lot of solid data, but an early study might suggest 70-75% would catch it. (Link) That's still pretty much extremely contagious.

They will start with roughly the same thing as before and then have a whole set of other plays ready to go if we adjust, possibly disguised as the same plays. Play action passes, anyone?

I hope Spencer Brown gets a good week of practice...

Right, but he says that it is the rules stopping him from playing. Both can be true, some players (not just Beasley) would be willing to play with a sore throat and congestion for example. I mean, this guy played with a rib injury. His toughness is not in question. Other players feel the same. Fortunately the league does not set its policy based on that. That is bad news. Both for Dawkins and the Bills. Seems like Dawkins may be more susceptible than average for a man of his age.

Beasley said in an Instagram that he was feeling fine "with mild symptoms." I think he was implying his symptoms were not bad enough to keep him physically from playing, which is very plausible. It does not mean he is symptom free or he would have said symptom free.

Could be a difference in doctors' opinions. Or maybe they were out of stock on Sunday (supply chain issues?).

How did we get Boettger on there? Beasley is still holding onto unvaxxed so if the list above is correct, there is one other. So at this point we have 0-1 unvaxxed who also have not had Covid since August, right? Of course Boettger's protection may be waning but the others are likely safe for a little bit.

Hopefully the other guys should be busy preparing for games and not worrying about Twitter noise.

Will Joe Buck say that a player is constantly blowing his nose and laying sluggishly on the bench because it is cold in the stadium?

There is certainly an opportunity cost to every decision. If the league and players feel so strongly that they need to play the games, they will change the rules like they already did. No easy answer to this one.

Absolutely next year will be different. For now we are in a situation where as recently as Sunday, Jon Feliciano went to the ER for this. Seems like a situation where some precautions are still in order. As the situation evolves the protocols should and will change.

Because he's contagious. Other than that, no reason.

I believe Lamar Jackson had a non-Covid illness this year.

If NE loses one Mac Jones.

The NFL has a "CT" threshold where ot is considered like a negative test if they get a positive test with a value over 35, representing a low level of detection. Higher is actually less in this case. This allows them to get around the issue you describe.

Very unlikely before the Super Bowl.

Only if they win. If not, don't bother...

True, that will reduce positive tests, but some will get symptoms. See the report on Feliciano who claims he was vaccinated and also went to the ER. An annoying cough is a mild symptom but hard to fully conceal, and very possible for a vaccinated individual.