Cash

Schefter just reported that Whitner actually signed with the 49ers, not the Bungles: http://twitter.com/#!/AdamSchefter/status/99224158663225346 I find this comical and interesting. There's already a story about Whitner's addition on bengals.com. Some shenanigans going on, or what?

Things to expect: A complaint about the lack of citrus fruit in his Labatt Blue An extensive description of the food the Bills provide to media A super-fresh, super-exclusive item about how Fitz wears his wedding ring during games Utter surprise at the weather being above 70 degrees The obligatory Shawne Merriman piece wherein PK states that Merriman will be hugely back this year, unless he isn't. More words written about coffee than current and active Buffalo Bills

As far as I understand it, it's a 1-time $3mil "cap credit" that a team can use on an existing contract. So if the Bills used it on Lee Evans, his contract would go from counting $5mil against the cap (or whatever it actually is) to $2mil against the cap. Doesn't change the cash paid out, just keeps some from counting towards the cap. There's a similar exemption next year as well, I think. Something like $1.5mil?

I have to say under. I look at how bad our offense was in the last couple games last year, and with a whole offseason to gameplan for Fitzpatrick, I see our offense taking a step back. I doubt the O-line will be any better, and I expect Fitz's performance to regress somewhat. (I'm discounting any Spiller/Brad Smith contributions, so if I'm wrong, maybe it's b/c they wind up bringing a lot to the table.) I do expect the D to be at least a little better, but how much? Dareus is just a rookie, Williams can't be any better than he was last year (and will probably be worse - regression to the mean), and I refuse to count on anything from Merriman until I see it in a regular season game. Losing Whitner and Poz will probably hurt more than help (unless Barnett has a monster year), but not much. And as long as Kelsay continues to start at LB, I continue to have zero confidence in our D-coordinator or scheme. So yeah, I'll go under, but I'm not quite confident enough to bet it. I've bet the Bills' win total exactly once - 2009, Jauron's last year. Over/under was 7.5 (-115), and I figured that if I had to sit through another horrible year under Jauron, I might as well at least get paid for it. Was 100% confident that we'd go under. Even the mini-rally under Fewell couldn't get us close.

Stevie is gonna have trouble separating from DBs this year, I think.

Never expected we'd give Miller a look, so I'm not disappointed. (Although I guess I'm still disappointed that he wasn't on our radar in the first place.) As for Seattle, I'm guessing this means they'll run a lot of 2TE sets with Miller and Carlson. Could work out pretty well if they had a QB or RB.

You know that they actually weigh players on a scale at the combine, right? Unless the scale is rigged, Dareus weighed 319 actual lbs. at the combine. If he's "easily more than 343" right now, that's not being a big dude, that's getting himself fat. You're right that a lot of linemen are listed too light (Mt. Ted & Pat Williams being 2 good examples), but if that's the case for Dareus, we should be concerned. Gaining well above 25 lbs. in 5 months is not indicative of the kind of discipline needed to be a success in the NFL.

Good point in general. But regarding the bolded portion specifically, we're in trouble if Dareus is much higher than 343. That would mean he's eating himself out of the NFL. Hopefully the listed weight is incorrect in the other direction, and Dareus is still in the 310s or 320s.

I think both us & Miami look high in the early going. As unimpressive as the Bills' post-lockout offseason has been, I'd say Miami's has significantly worse. And the gap between the two teams wasn't very far to begin with. I'd say something like 11 wins combined, provided there's no more major roster acquisitions or losses.

There is literally no player on our roster who would get a first-round pick in return. Teams don't part with those lightly.

Those Miami Dolphins fans are class acts.

Or pitch it out.

All of the DE's (but not the DT's) seem to be high. Possible misprint, possible weight gain. I'm rooting for misprint. Dareus was 319 at the combine. He didn't gain 24 lbs. of muscle since then. People used to say "the bigger the better" about Mike Williams, too.

It is not formally part of the rookie contract rules, but thus far, all of the high first rounders (maybe even all first rounders so far? Not sure.) have had their 4-year deals fully guaranteed. Since the top picks are making so much less now, it makes some sense to throw them/their agents a bone. When you consider how long it takes teams to give up on Aaron Maybin high picks who bust, it's unlikely to cost the teams very much. If anything, it encourages teams to take a longer view when developing high picks, since you can't save any money from cutting them. Also, it's a little off-topic for this thread, but worth mentioning: The Patriots' first-rounder, Nate Solder, is still unsigned. What the hell are they waiting for?

I've seen 2 practice reports so far, and both mentioned that Jasper was consistently driving guys back in drills. So that's a nice sign. Of course, there's a lot more to NFL success than just winning the point of attack, but it's always better to win it than lose it. Also, keep in mind that our O-line isn't exactly renowned for stopping NTs, especially once you get down to the 3rd string or so. My guess/prediction: Jasper makes the team outright as the #3 NT, but doesn't play much barring injury.

Great post! Thanks for taking the time to research and share!

It would be nice to see us "bringing in competition" and "making the team better" at the top of the depth chart instead of the bottom, but I doubt it will happen. At least, not with that last roster spot. I think whomever they get will instantly be a candidate to be cut. Still holding out hope for Zach Miller, though.

Psyched about this! Just bought my season tickets! Playoffs baby!

The thread title is true for every team.

5 tech end might be Marcel's best position, but it's close. He's awesome as a 3 tech tackle, and not too shabby as a 1 tech nose. I actually think the Bills will use him very, very well.

It's stories like these that sap all of my optimism. Moats is an edge rusher. That was patently obvious last year. He is not an ILB. Us fans could see that plain as day, so why couldn't the coaches? Kelsay is very bad at playing linebacker. Moats should be starting ahead of him.

If the Bills could actually convince a couple free agents to sign, Hang might be a candidate for a late training camp cut. He can breathe easy as long as we're below the salary floor, though.

I would say you focus on trying to acquire the players to form a reliable offense, not grabbing more gadget players. I realize that the two things are not mutually exclusive. Or the other option is to innovate something truly new that allows you to beat conventional strategy with less talent. An extreme example of this is the A-11 high school offense. A more moderate example would be the spread option offense in college. (The wildcat doesn't really count, because even at its peak, the Dolphins only ran it about 10 plays a game. They spent the bulk of their offense in conventional sets.) In the NFL, these kinds of innovations can only help you in the short term, because other teams catch on, figure out how to better defend them, and incorporate the best elements into their own schemes. Then you have to innovate something new. Anyway, I could be wrong, but I don't see Gailey going down this road. I think we'll run a pretty conventional offense in 2011. Yeah, we'll be in the shotgun 4 or 5 wide over half the time, but that's pretty common these days. Definitely some non-conventional stuff in there (WildBill or whatever), but probably not much more than we ran last year. We'll see. Should be an interesting year no matter what.

Yay! Nice job getting him in camp on time. No excuse for a holdout this year.

Ha! Seriously though, it might be an adventure getting up to the salary floor. We might see Akin Ayodele signed to a 2-year, $18mil contract.