Cash

Love it! For everyone clamoring for the Bills to sign Delanie Walker, we essentially already have him on the roster in the form of Dickerson. Very similar players, except Walker is a role player on a very good team, whereas Dickerson was an underutilized asset on a terrible team.

People have been saying that since Nix took over. This is the 4th straight offseason of "let's fill other needs first, then draft a QB next year" talk. For real, 4 straight years. (And yet, the other needs don't seem to be filled yet.) For that reason, plus the new front office structure/coaching regime, I think there's virtually no chance that the Bills don't draft a QB in rounds 1-3, and they'll probably draft one in round 1. I kind of think the most likely scenario is that they take a defensive player at #8, then immediately start trying to trade back into the first round for a QB. For the record, I do not like this approach. Like others, I think this is a really weak QB class, and drafting one in the 1st just because you're desperate is how you wind up with Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, or Jake Locker. If Jimmy Claussen had been drafted in the 1st round instead of the 2nd, the Panthers never would've drafted Cam Newton one year later. I'm comfortable with taking that chance with Geno Smith at #8, but beyond him, I say stay put and take whomever's left at #41. If we get lucky, awesome. If not, I really like Murray and Boyd next year.

The other thing to keep in mind when voting on depth is that you're comparing it to depth league-wide. Aside from the Patriots, how many teams have a really good backup TE? Ed Dickson in Baltimore is decent, but not exactly a game-breaker (neither is the starter Dennis Pitta, for that matter). There are a couple others, but for the most part, backup TEs are very anonymous, and for good reason.

I wouldn't be surprised either, but I would be irate.

As of a couple years ago, yes. Dunno if it's been changed since, but the last time I read about this, the rule was that a player had to purchase any unsold inventory of his jersey in order to switch numbers. Mario's jersey sold really well last year, but that was to be expected, so they obviously printed a ton. I have no idea how many are still circulating out there.

Voted "below average" for starting only b/c of Chandler's injury and the likelihood that he'll miss all of training camp/preseason and significant time in the regular season. If Chandler was healthy, I'd probably say average or maybe even above average. I initially voted "bad" for depth, but upon further review, I'm upgrading it. Lee Smith is a good blocker and if we're counting Dickerson here, I like him a lot.

I'm not the biggest SU fan, but I definitely liked Shamarko a lot. No one is going to be happy with the comparison I'm about to make, but here it is: He reminds me of Donte Whitner, except a little bigger and a better athlete. Very good in run support, physical, big hitter, makes a lot of tackles, didn't really make many big plays at SU. For a guy who was probably the best athlete on the field in most games (or close to it -- I wasn't surprised by his sick combine numbers), I think a lot of us expected more in terms of interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks on blitzes, etc. He only finished with 2 career INTs, both this past year. I wouldn't call Shamarko a disappointment, because he was a good player, and I don't remember him blowing all kinds of coverages or getting run over like Whitner, but his upside at SU was higher than his production turned out to be. Still, I'd absolutely draft him in the middle rounds. He's a good/smart safety and an elite NFL athlete for the position. I think he'll be a good player.

Same methodology for the 2004 draft: Eli Manning - NYG (starter) - please don't start any nonsense about how he was drafted by the Chargers. It was a draft-day trade. Whether the trade occurred before the selections or after is irrelevant. Larry Fitzgerald - ARI (starter) Philip Rivers - SD (starter) Ben Roethlisberger - PIT (starter) D.J. Williams - DEN (backup) Will Smith - NO (starter) Vince Wilfork - NE (starter) Steven Jackson - STL (starter) Chris Gamble - CAR (starter) I don't have time to do the 2nd round, but I will do the 2006 first round: D'Brickashaw Ferguson - NYJ (starter) A.J. Hawk - GB (starter) Vernon Davis - SF (starter) Michael Huff - OAK (starter) Haloti Ngata - BAL (starter) Chad Greenway - MIN (starter) Tamba Hali - KC (starter) Davin Joseph - TB (starter in 2011, missed all last year w/ injury, may be a backup going forward) DeAngelo Williams - CAR (part-time starter) Marcedes Lewis - JAX (starter) Nick Mangold - NYJ (starter) Mathias Kiwanuka - NYG (starter) So 9 from 2004 (8 starters), 8 from 2005 (7 starters), and 12 from 2006 (arguably 12 starters, though I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument). 2005 seems to be a slight dip in terms of 1st-round quality, because you'd expect this number to go down every year you go back. I imagine the biggest dip would be between 5 years back and 6 years back, since most 1st-rounders get 5 year deals.

But does he have a nose for the ball? In his first 3 years (1 as a part-time starter, 2 as a full-time starter), Te'o had a total of 0 interceptions. The 7 in his senior year look really fluky. On the other hand, his pass breakups (per wikipedia) were 1, 3, 2, & 4 in his 4 years -- last year was his best, but those are fairly consistent.

Because no team (that I can think of) has ever drafted QBs in the first round in consecutive drafts, and the Bills are definitely not going to be the first. That is why. If you think that the best available QB prospect is another Blaine Gabbert, you are truly better off drafting no one than drafting him at #8. The Jaguars are STILL talking about building around Gabbert, even with a new coach and GM. Even if that's smoke, there's still the part where the Jags passed on taking another QB last year because they were committed to Gabbert. Now, if the Bills wait even till the 2nd round to draft a QB, and he stinks, then we absolutely could see the Bills draft a QB in the 1st next year. But in the real world, giving up on a 1st-rounder after 1 year simply isn't done. And drafting another QB in the 1st is absolutely a form of giving up on the last guy.

Very interested to see quotes from Nix et al w/ regard to this. I'm guessing it'll be "chance to compete for the job". Can't think T-Jax would've re-signed this early without at least that promise. Also can't imagine the Bills would be dumb enough to sell him as much more than that. But I've been surprised before. Most interesting implication of this is that it gives the Bills leverage/options with respect to Fitz. Is T-Jack really any worse? Bills likely want Fitz to restructure to save cap room and real cash. Cutting him saves tons of cash, but no cap room. With the added leverage of "we're happy to have TJ play caretaker while we develop a rookie", they might be able to get Fitz to agree to a restructure.

Very sad to see McGee go, but I'm not surprised, given the injury history. Still one of my favorite Bills ever. Very solid starting CB, elite kick returner, and had a nose for the endzone. I believe he was the first player in NFL history to have a kick return TD and interception return TD in the same game. McGee's home throwback was the first (and so far only) Bills jersey I bought, after his Pro Bowl performance almost singlehandedly won me my fantasy league. (We play IDPs and count return yards.) Best wishes to Terrance, and I hope he recovers enough to make a comeback.

I don't have much to add, but I do want to thank Dibs for all the effort. Very interesting read and much appreciated!

The grading system appears to be a scale of I, D, G, M, or E. Very clear; definitely no need to explain that.

Good post! Based on Marrone's track record at SU and Crossman's track record in the NFL, I am expecting our special teams to suck next year. Or at least the coverage units. I don't know how much coaching can screw up a really good return man (if Leodis comes back next year, we'll probably find out), and it's hard to imagine coaching having any real impact on FG accuracy.

From the OP's link (bolding mine): PLEASE let that scout not be one of ours.

This (and your other posts in this thread) are wonderful analysis. Thanks so much for taking the time to post them!

Not necessarily. Could easily sign Alex Smith and draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. Especially w/ Russell Wilson tearing it up this year, it's easy (though totally disingenuous) to spin a 3rd-round guy as our potential 8-10 year "franchise" guy.

Doesn't make much sense to pay Fitz $10mil next year AND sign a veteran AND draft a rookie. Two out of those three, yes. I tend to favor this route as well. Moore, Alex Smith, maybe a trade for Matt Flynn... I don't think Moore or Smith would be appreciably better than Fitz (Flynn is a total wildcard, but I wouldn't count on him as an upgrade till we saw it), but they'd cost less than $10mil and would have the added benefit of not being the entrenched starter. If Fitz gets beat out by a rookie next year, and the rookie struggles, it might divide the locker room. If Matt Moore gets beat out, there'll be a lot less veterans to get his back. On the other hand, I don't really like any of the QBs in this draft, which makes me want to start whomever we draft. Either I'm proved wrong, and we've got our guy, or I'm proved right, and we're able to move on and draft a new guy in 2014. Either way, I'd like to get a good idea of what we've got. I don't want another Todd Collins situation where we "groom" him on the bench for 2 years only to find out that he can't actually play. Of course, Collins was sitting behind Kelly, so it made a lot of sense to develop a young QB that way. But I think I would rather throw a rookie into the fire than have him sit behind Fitz or Moore or Smith. The article you linked is talking only about cap savings, not about cash savings. This article (and this one, which the first one links to) talks about the guarantees in his deal, and if they're accurate, there aren't any guarantees against skill left. In other words, the Bills don't have to pay out any more actual cash if they cut Fitzpatrick. There would still be a $10.45 million charge against their salary cap, but they wouldn't have to cut a check. Given the new regime and the very real cash savings of cutting Fitz (Moore or Smith could probably be signed for something in the neighborhood of $5mil this year, including signing bonus), I am expecting him to be cut next month. But the Bills have surprised me before!

No, I'm specifically talking about the short and long term starting QB position, and I think that's what this thread is about. That specific position was almost 100% ignored. The only moves Nix has made that addressed the starting QB (whether competition or outright replacement) were cutting Trent Edwards and giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension. In terms of acquiring new players to compete for the starting job now or down the road, he has done nothing. (You could argue that Levi Brown was supposed to "develop" into a guy who could push for the starting job, but that's a really weak argument.)

I'll say it. And all his tackles are 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Buddy Nix has repeatedly and specifically identified a need for a long-term starter at quarterback, sometimes even while endorsing Fitx as the current starter. (Something along the lines of, "we love Fitz, but he's not young. We want a guy who can step in when he's gone and start for 10, 12 years.") None of your above examples should be considered an attempt to address Nix's own stated need. He didn't bring in Brohm. 7th-rounders are drafted as camp fodder, and it's a pleasant surprise when they make the team. There's no sane way to claim that Levi Brown was a legit attempt to find a franchise guy, any more than buying a Powerball ticket could be considered responsible retirement planning. Thigpen and Young were brought in as veteran backups in case Fitz got hurt. There was no thought of either challenging Fitz for the starting job or being handed the reins once Fitz got old. This was made abundantly clear by the team when each was signed. T-Jack is just weird, because the team wasn't as clear about why they traded for him, and I don't think I've ever heard of a guy being traded for and then being a healthy scratch for all 16 games. If you want proof of the Bills' dysfunction, there you have it. In any case, T-Jack was never given an opportunity to compete for playing time this year, and at 29 years old, couldn't be considered a long-term option. I would put this acquisition into the same category as Thigpen and Young So while Nix has made a few attempts to address the Bills' backup QB situation, he has made only one move to address the Bills' starting QB situation in the short or long term: Namely, giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension. Other than that, he has completely ignored the starting QB position. He's payed a lot of lip service to addressing that position, but hasn't actually made any acquisitions.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Nix has specifically stressed the need to draft a franchise QB before each of his 3 drafts. And yet he's only drafted a 7th-round prospect who was cut in camp and not offered a spot on the practice squad. And in those 3 drafts, numerous quality starters have emerged. It's not very fair to count Bradford, Newton, Luck, or RG3 against Nix, because he would've had to trade up for them (and Luck essentially couldn't have been acquired at any price), but it is *extremely* fair to count Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson against him, particularly since the players he drafted immediately in front of those three have been abject busts so far. So Nix has been a failure in this respect. By his own standards, even. If he says he needs to get a QB in the draft, then doesn't get one because "there wasn't one that we liked at that spot", but it turns out that 2 good starters were available at that spot, he failed at his job. Beyond that, his job is to build a team that wins football games, so he's failed at the overall object of his job.

This is also the scenario that scares me. That's why I'd kinda prefer a QB taken in the 2nd round this year. (Unless Geno Smith drops? I think Geno's pretty good. Nowhere near Luck or RG3 as a prospect, though.) Because if a 2nd-rounder flops, it's not tough to come back and draft a QB in the first the following year. (See Jimmy Claussen/Cam Newton.) NFL teams are extremely conservative and extremely risk averse, and there no way that a team is going to draft a QB at #8 overall, then draft another QB in the 1st round the following year. (Unless the first QB's career was ended by injury or illness or something.) Maybe the NFL's culture will eventually change to a point that that could happen, but we're not close to that now. So if we draft QB at #8, he'd better be good, because he'll get at least 2 and probably 3 years to show that he is.

Interesting. Certainly an impressive highlight reel (the "knee didn't touch" punt return was SICK), he's got ideal size, and he definitely looks like a natural receiver. Physically very reminiscent of Dez Bryant. The concerns: 1.) He's college fast, but not NFL fast. Don't really care about this one. Megatron & AJ Green are probably the 2 best WRs and also the 2 best deep threats in the league right now, and neither has elite NFL speed. Patterson looks fast enough, especially at his size. 2.) He only played 1 season that I can tell, putting up 46 catches for 778 yards and 5 TDs. Those are unimpressive numbers, and not a lot of experience. Anyone who follows college football care to weigh in on why? College WRs numbers don't necessarily translate well to pro success, but to draft a guy in the top 10, you'd like a little more experience at least. Can this guy run routes? Can he learn a playbook? Can he beat press coverage?