BillsVet

I don't see Buffalo going OT unless of course the dreaded Peters trade occurs. Getting rid of a large contract in Peters, receiving picks in return, and drafting a guy with no college experience could happen with this front office. It almost seems like they avoid problems at all costs. Lynch's accident and Peters situation instantly comes to mind. At the same time, it fits nicely into their "replace star players who exit with high draft picks and never improve" mindset. The only hope for this off-season is that Modrak is final say on all personnel decisions and not DJ. TM is no Jerry Reese, but he's a better personnel mind than the HC. McKelvin is an electric corner, and I'm impressed with his ball skills after people said his hands weren't great. The INT he got in KC that he returned for a TD was a dynamite play which hopefully is an indication of things to come. At this point the defense needs playmakers, perhaps McLovin can be that and in the return game. Overall, I can't believe how many resources have been invested in the OL and DL. More than 100M in contracts to the OL (although no first day picks in forever) and another 110M+ into the DL (Kelsay 23M, Schobel 50.5M, Stroud 10M+, Johnson 20M, Williams 14M IIRC) and we still have huge issues. That's a whole lotta money for two units that arguably are the team's weakest areas. Obviously the Bills are following the federal govt model of throwing money at problems and hoping they go away.

I'm certainly not saying that Hardy is a bust as some are prone to say. But drafting WR's early is not what this team needs right now. Hardy's not the issue on this team right now. The first pick should not be WR/RB/DB type player. Taking Maclin would be nice if this team could do the basic things: rush the passer and pass protect better.

From a team building perspective, Buffalo made huge mistakes in UFA 06, specifically Tripplett and Price. And the shine on the 06 draft is wearing as people realize it wasn't what it was made out to be. Whitner is average, McCargo a bust, Youboty can't stay healthy, Simpson has recognition issues at S, while Williams and Butler are good value picks. Ellison is a backup LB/ST'er. Three average starters is no way to build your team, as none are impact players. Rebuilding for three years and never going above 7-9 is an anomaly. That tells me there are significant issues in the front office, and it's my hope the team starts getting it right by taking personnel authority away from DJ. My expectations will always be low with the front office crew in place. If something happens, then great. If not, well, it's not a surprise. There's no sense getting amped up for a let-down, which is what this team has done for 9 seasons now.

So much so that RW finally relieved DJ of his authority in personnel by making Modrak part of his 5, wait, inner circle. (Apologies to Charles Barkley) This franchise should have known not to trust DJ with personnel after the 99 and 00 seasons. When Jerry Angelo arrived, DJ lost personnel control and never had much of a relationship with JA. Now the same thing is happening here. Worse than his gaffes on gameday, DJ's lack of savvy in personnel is a central reason why he's not capable of putting together a good team. He no doubt held immense sway over Marv in 06 and 07, but the results are still muddy. I'd trust Modrak a lot more than a coach who's proven he's not good enough on gameday and in personnel.

The DT position is a microcosm of what's wrong with this team. A busted draft pick, bad FA acquisition in Tripplett, and trading more picks for a DT who is still pretty good, but will be 31 when the season begins. All in all, the Bills have traded away a 2nd, 2 3rds, and a 5th to acquire the first for McCargo and Stroud. Now Buffalo has Williams, who is undersized and not an ideal 3 technique, along with Johnson who is a depth player. After that, they're still thin at DT. After three seasons of rebuilding, the OL and DL still are major issues. So much that we're talking about acquiring a DE and C in UFA.

That's right. C2C doesn't mean sh** to the NFL, but is an accounting trick designed to make fans think the team is spending like the big boys. The only figure the NFL cares about is spending the minimum of 86.4% of 123M in cap dollars, or a minimum of 106.27M. Cap hit and money spent are two entirely different things. I dare say the Bills will be closer to the league minimum than the maximum. And one adverse effect has been a lack of depth on both sides of the ball, namely having guys like Keith Ellison as your primary backup at LB.

Just maybe RW understands it's a mistake to lean on DJ for personnel input. His opinion carried so much weight in Chicago that he was relived of those duties when Jerry Angelo was hired. Jason Peters will eat up a lot of cap room when he is re-signed. If the Bills choose to trade him, or worse, let this situation erupt, their reputation (which is already poor) will hit rock bottom. No team trades top LT's when the price gets high. Besides, Fred Jackson should get a long term contract, because he's proven his worth to the team in abundance. Those two contracts will take the 29M down to a level which precludes the Bills from doing as much as many unaware fans realize. EDIT: Teams are barred from talking to free agents, and even though this rule is bent, until UFA opens. I highly doubt a team would start this early and let on which players they're targeting. Additionally, teams can still designate franchise and transition tagged players for about another week. That, is how the system works.

1. Owen Daniels is a RESTRICTED FA who will be tendered at a high level. Unless yielding a first and third is the Bills mindset, he's not coming here. 2. Matt Birk and Jeff Saturday are both on the downside and well over 30. Buffalo historically doesn't pursue guys this age and prefer to build with younger guys. 3. Crowell and the team have moved on. AC's knees aren't all that great, and even if they were, I don't think Buffalo welcomes back a guy that the HC isn't crazy about after last year's theatrics. Bowen is another in a long line of undersized OLB's this team has a tendency to acquire. He's also coming off an ACL tear. 4. Spending a high pick on Maclin is tantamount to saying Hardy is already a wasted pick. With the needs at SLB, DE, TE, and C, this is a luxury pick. Kinda like taking a safety when you're team's DL is terrible. 5. Despite his size, Herman Johnson is slow and gets pushed around far too often. His play at the senior bowl demonstrated this quite clearly. Ayers is a 3-4 DE who isn't known for pressuring QB's. Won't fit in the 4-3 Buffalo plays. 6. Parrish certainly isn't going to Dallas, as the Cowboys have given up several picks already to acquire Roy Williams formerly of Detroit. Taking a gadget player is absurd.

In no way am I saying they won't do something strange, but there are (EDIT:four) positions I believe they must address: C, TE, SLB, and DE. In UFA, three names are prevalent at the center positions, though two are over 30: Birk and Saturday. Jason Brown is younger, and will command a heavy price. Not sure if the team wants to spend on the OL, especially considering they've got the Peters situation around the corner. DE and TE are thin in FA, minus Peppers and perhaps Suggs, if he isn't retained by BAL. I don't see Buffalo doing anything here as a result. LB has some intriguing options with Dansby among others. Still, Buffalo went LB in UFA last season and will probably look for a veteran backup and take someone in rounds 1 or 2. The cost of a Dansby will be high ATL had a massive rebuild project last season, didn't do a lot in UFA besides Michael Turner, but used the draft wisely and succeeded. The Mike's (Mularkey and Smith) did a fine job with a lot of youth. It doesn't take a lot of moves in UFA to win. It takes smart drafting, which is why I'm an advocate of trading down from the 11th overall pick. ATL and MIA collected plenty of picks in rounds 1-3 and won. I also think the marquee names will get their money, but the second tier guys will struggle on the open market, a la baseball's free agency this year. It could create an interesting scenario, but I'm not sure the Bills will get into a bidding war for those guys either.

I'm reading how some fans think the Bills will spend big in UFA because the fan base is depressed, RW is going into HOF, and because the Bills have the chance to sign some big players along with showing upwards of 30M to spend in UFA. IMO, those items have little bearing on the team's plan in UFA. I think history shows that Buffalo is modest when they need to be, but also recognize that spending big does not equate to winning during the season. The Bills last three off-seasons are a mix and match of how they "improved" their roster. 2006: Bills signed 2 RFA's to offer sheets: G Reggie Wells of Arizona and DL Israel Idonije from Chicago. Both players were retained by their former clubs. The team hosted DT Ryan Pickett from STL, who ended up signing with GB for 4 yrs and 14M. Buffalo then signed DT Larry Tripplett to a modest 5 yr 18.5M deal. Following this, Buffalo inked TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, WR Peerless Price, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, RB Anthony Thomas, S Matt Bowen, QB Craig Nall, G Tutan Reyes, and WR/KR Andre Davis. Three seasons later, only Fowler and Royal remain, with both being poor options at their positions. 2007: Buffalo signed G Dockery, RT Walker, OL Jason Whittle, and CB Jason Webster to contracts. Neither Dockery nor Walker are the strong OL presence the Bills thought they acquired, but represented 74M in contracts. Whittle most likely is finished, and Webster lasted all of a game before predictably getting injured. 2008: LB Kawika Mitchell was acquired for 5 yrs and 17.5M at the outset of the signing period. Later, the Bills traded for DT Marcus Stroud, while signing DT Spencer Johnson away from Minnesota. In retrospect, the Bills haven't seriously considered tendering RFA's since the poor 2006 FA period. 07 saw a reversal from the quantity that 06 represented, but hasn't brought about quality players in Dockery and Walker. 2008 seemed to be an improvement in shoring up the defensive front 7, although the defense still needs a pass rusher and another LB. I see the Bills going after one marquee name, a moderate player, and perhaps another depth guy. I could see C Jason Brown, a veteran QB to back up Edwards, and a depth LB. Anything beyond that would be irrational given the economy (whether that's as legit reason around WNY) and fact that the Bills look for only certain players to fit their schemes. Buffalo builds their team at their pace. Even though it's deliberately slow, breaking the bank has proven to hurt teams more often than help. Dockery and Walker's contract was Buffalo's first foray into spending in UFA since 02-03, and it has not worked out. No doubt RW remembers signing Bledsoe, Fletcher, and Spikes and still not having a very good team.

Peters is under contract for 09 (and 2010 for that matter) but I can't see Buffalo ignoring him this off-season. Fred Jackson is an ERFA, but it would behoove the front office to give him a 3-4 year contract. Both of those deals would impact their cap hit. Another factor is what won't be happening this season. Guys like Edwards and Posluszny have contracts through 2010, but good front offices will re-up their solid players before they enter their final season. And lastly, they must plan for existing veterans like McGee and Reed who have contracts through 2009.

Read "The Genius" by David Harris about Walsh and his ideas on offense. A great book that talks about Walsh's evolution into becoming the coach we all know him as with the 49ers.

Many of us said the same thing last season after two whole 7-9 seasons. Now it's been three mediocre seasons, and people expect things to change. This is it, this is how the franchise does business. Buffalo has 27-31M in cap dollars to use, but I'm thinking RW has been scared from opening the wallet for UFA after the Dockery and Walker signings. I don't think RW's election into the HOF means anything about how he spends his money. He knows the economy isn't doing well, and that's an easy out when the team isn't aggressive in UFA. His legacy has already been made: founding the team, keeping it in Buffalo for nearly 50 seasons, and election into the HOF for his work more than 40 years ago. Despite what naive fans think, he isn't concerned with winning now that he's in the HOF. He fired the best GM in modern NFL history for petty reasons. Nothing RW does makes that much sense.

Mayock and Kiper are the top draft analysts and it continues to amaze me how McShay has any credibility. To my knowledge, his only draft/personnel experience has been working for ESPN Scouts, Inc. But I like Mayock's perspective. He's not perfect (didn't like John Carlson, TE from ND last year) but he's better than anyone including Kiper. I'm not overly impressed at this point with Orakpo, Brown, or Maybin. Orakpo has the physical ability, but disappears for stretches. I've read that Brown may not have the strength to play DE at this point. Maybin's got 2 years at PSU, and while he's got excellent speed, he's still got only two years play at the collegiate level. With nothing at DE in FA besides Peppers and perhaps Suggs, you have to wonder whether the Bills will take a DE out of need alone.

Having a C who does not resemble a matador would certainly do wonders for this team. Mack seems to be the best of the 09 class and has versatility, which will be required when someone gets hurt. Could not help but agree with this post, especially about building depth on the OL because Walker, Dockery, and the current depth is poor or unproven. That final quote says it all about this franchise. RW is running the show, with Brandon basically talking tough but having very little say. In the end, it's the Ralph and Dick show. Neither has earned any level of respect for their football decisions of late, and nothing seems to be changing. I would hope Modrak can overrule anyone on draft day, but this franchise has not proven they make good decisions during the offseason.

The only part, and this has been covered ad nauseam, is if you use a top 10 pick on a guy who's not a bust nor a star, and an excellent player was available at a position of need, then it becomes worse. If only Cutler and Cromartie had been available and no one else, Whitner's not bad. The Bills didn't have a need at those positions in 06. But when guys like Bunkley, Ngata, and Mangold go later, it's not so great. But no, his draft spot shouldn't have anything to do with deciding to re-sign or not re-sign the guy.

Getting rid of Whitner because he's not dominant is no solution either. He's signed through 2011 IIRC, so there's plenty of time to make a decision on him for the future. The point has been made several times around here about being on a treadmill. The draft is replacing the players who left the team. Milloy/Whitner, Clements/McKelvin, Fletcher/Posluszny, McGahee/Lynch. No team can lose talent at that pace and feature good squads. Essentially the 06, 07, and 08 drafts were spent replacing productive players. .

All of the arguments against Whitner are based on subjectives. Poor ball skills, bad angles, his use in the Bills defense. None of it can be substantiated with numbers. And so it becomes a statistics issue, which can be pushed either for or against. The vehement nature of this thread indicates some fans think Whitner's still going to be good. For me, I want a top 10 pick to be the foundation of whichever side of the ball they play. Someone to build around, but that is not true of Whitner. He is a cog in the wheel, but I'm not sure if he's as big as some would have him. Was the team better without him for that stretch of games? I'm not sure, but I can darn guarantee that without Bob Sanders the Indianapolis defense is much worse. Whitner's impact cannot be defended solely by how he's used, nor can it be shot down on stats alone. If he needs help to be successful, he's not the guy worthy of a top 10 pick. And I don't care what Michael Huff does or doesn't do. That has no bearing on this topic.

There's another way to look at this. And a positive one I might add: It took Chicago 5 years to get rid of DJ. It'll only take us 4.

BPA at a position of need should be the teams draft strategy, with particular emphasis on the lines if your teams are poor. Taking a CB would be like taking a LT right now. You already have fine players at those positions, and it would hinder your ability to build elsewhere. I'd like to see pass rush early and often. People talk about never having enough DB's, and DJ's proven that theory is garbage. For once I'd like to see the Bills follow the Giants lead and take pass rush help in round 1. No TE or C is worth the 11th overall pick.

I'd first like to know what Matt Cassel's mother thinks about this. Surely she would have a more inside perspective on this. I'm not sure Sanchez is as coveted as you make him out to be. He has 16 career college starts and while his numbers are good, that's not exactly the thing a team likes when using a first rounder on a QB. Rose Bowl or not, I think NFL teams know that using a top pick should be on someone with a longer track record in the college game. Also not sure if Pete Carroll's strong recommendation to remain in school might hurt him. That situation is either PC being a college coach and wanting to keep his QB, or a situation where he didn't think Sanchez was ready.

Excellent post. It's a touchy subject, but collective talent rarely overcomes poor coaching. Good coaching can, on the contrary, make average or below average talent better as in the case of the Dolphins. Players are the most visible people for this franchise, and that's why they get a large part of the blame. We see when they screw up or succeed. Meanwhile, when a John Guy, Jeff Littman, Russ Brandon, or Jim Overdorf make a mistake, we don't see them. But it is manifested in the team that takes the field. There's little demand to change the front office before players, but it's clear the Bills aren't interested in making changes to the front office despite many of the same people running the show since 2001. Naturally, fan ire is directed to on-field personnel, coaches included. Every solid NFL team has a capable GM and coaching staff that can carry the GM's vision onto the field with the team. Buffalo has no GM, and a coach who I don't think could coach any of the other 31 NFL teams. It's my hope that if 2009 is bad, the entire front office is nuked. Brandon should be reduced to marketing boy again, to pave the way for a real GM.

Every offseason this team needs to solve huge problems. In 07 it was at RB, LB, OL, and CB. In 08 it was LB, WR, DT, and TE. Upgrades are required this year at DE, LB, TE, and C. No wonder mediocrity is the most well-used term when describing the franchise. Having huge needs each off-season is an indication the long term planning on this team plain stinks. Call it a lack of financial resources, but if this team drafted better it wouldn't be in the predicament they always find themselves. A well-known front office executive once said that the prices in free agency are the penalty for drafting poorly.

This team is guys that we talk about as having, "high motors" or play hard for their coach. Kelsay is the epitome of these phrases, and espouses why this team consistently underachieves. For whatever reason, he was deemed to be a keeper after 06, and there's little doubt that talent-wise he's not good enough. If he's starting next season, something is seriously wrong at OBD. Kelsay is not the reason Buffalo's DL stinks. But he's not making the problem go away, either now or down the road. I'd like to know who decided the team needed to retain him in advance of UFA 07.

Yet the record is only 2 wins more than the 05 team after three complete seasons of rebuilding. The question no one is asking is why aren't they significantly better after 3 seasons of rebuilding. It doesn't matter if the team has better individual players. What counts is how they play as a team. As for QB play, you criticize a guy who has 23 career starts under his belt. Demanding outstanding play from a guy with less than a season and a half of starts is insanity. Most guys don't begin at a Flacco or Ryan level and improve from there. BTW, TE is 11-10 in games he finishes, though he needs to be more durable. Demand accountability from the franchise, and if a 2 win improvement over 3 seasons is good enough, well, to each his own.