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mannc

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Posts posted by mannc

  1. Here’s a little discussed aspect of the Mahomes Trade:  In the last game of the 2016 regular season, Rex was going to start Tyrod Taylor, to try to beat his old team in a meaningless game (the Jets were 6-9).  In one of his smartest moves as owner, Pegula fired Rex, and installed an interim coach (Anthony Lynn?) who played all the backups against the Jets, and lost.  As a result, the Bills’ draft position improved from 15 to 10, which put them in a position to make the trade with KC.

  2. 19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

    Kansas City won the trade. Without question. They drafted the best QB in football. 

     

    But the Bills did about as good a job losing a trade as you could ever do. An all pro corner and then a pick that helped them land the 2nd best QB in football the following year.

    You have to do a lot of mental gyrations to explain why the Bills screwed up here. On the other hand, the Bears passed on Mahomes for Mitch Trubisky and the Niners passed on him for a JAG defensive tackle.  Those teams should really be ashamed…

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  3. 5 hours ago, Success said:

    The Jets game was just weird.  The season opener, Rodgers getting hurt early, Allen kind of falling apart.  But after that, we tore through September.  Allen was firing on all cylinders, and the defense was as good as I've seen in the McDermott era.  It was smothering, aggressive, flying to the ball.  Man, was that D good.

     

    Our D when we faced KC at the end was a shell of that D.

     

    Every team has to deal with injuries.  No doubt.  But seriously, who dealt w/ more, and which team was clearly impacted by losses? We lost Hines & Damien Harris before things really started.  Then, in one fell swoop, we lost Milano, Tre & Jones.  Arguably the top 3 guys on our defense.  Then we lose Benford, Rapp, Spector and Bernard, the latter of whom had picked up the slack in ways that were completely unexpected. So excited to see him AND Milano on the field this coming season.

     

    It wasn't just that we had to navigate the playoffs without quite a few of our best players. Even some of the guys playing, like Rasul Douglas, were clearly playing hurt and less effective.

     

    People always say the same thing:  "excuses, excuses."  To which I respond:  "reality."  If KC had the extent of injuries we had, and we were as healthy as they were, I have no issue saying that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell they would beat us.  

     

    Last I heard, there is no Lombardi Trophy awarded to “Best Team When Everyone’s Healthy.”  All NFL teams have injuries.  And BTW, our offense was almost 100 percent healthy all season. I can’t think of an important starter who missed a game. Unheard of…

  4. 3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

    To be fair, Franklin is still mostly being mocked in the 2nd round. There's just a lot of us that think he'll move up as the process moves along.

    Yeah, I don’t pay much attention to the mocks until later in the process. I see Franklin as no worse than WR5, which means he probably comes off the board before our pick. He would be a perfect fit for what we want…an. outside receiver with good size, speed and YAC ability.

  5. 1 hour ago, NewEra said:

    Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

    So are people thinking Franklin won’t make it to 28 now?  I’ve been pounding the table for him for a while, but at one point he was being looked at as a day 2 guy.  I suspect he’ll move even higher when he runs sub 4.40 at the combine.

  6. On 2/13/2024 at 5:54 AM, Big Turk said:

    While it's nice they addressed the fact that each team is now guaranteed at least one possession, that still leaves the situation of is it really fair that if both teams are the same after the first possession then the team with the 3rd possession can win it with no ability to respond for the other?

     

    I'd say no.

     

    I'm not sure why the NFL doesn't just go to the college OT format. It clearly is the most fair, as both teams are guaranteed the same number of possessions, and it comes down to which team scores more points on the same number of possessions, not which team has the ball for the 3rd possession of the game is still tied after the first 2.

     

    The NFL still has it wrong even with their "fix" in the playoffs IMO. 

     

    Perhaps that is why Shanahan took the ball first? Never thought of this possibility but if both teams scored TDs or FGs or had to punt, then the team with the 3rd possession only needs a FG to win the game.

    Shanahan made an all-time blunder.  “Playing for the third possession” is the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.

    On 2/13/2024 at 11:13 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

     

    But there is the issue...they are not equal advantages.  That is the point people are making on college vs pros.  

     

    The OT rule is improved now, but college system is still the single only true equal opportunity structure.  

    Hardly.  The team that gets the ball second has a distinct advantage in college and in the NFL.

  7. 38 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

    You already said that but if the Bills are as healthy as the chiefs or if the chiefs are as injured as the Bills , the Bills win that game no argument, end of story you are wrong…

    Injury excuses have always carried a lot of weight in the NFL…well done!

     

    Maybe there should be an “If Only No One Got Hurt Lombardi Trophy”…heck, they could award it before the playoffs even start!

  8. 13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

    Same goes for the Chiefs on their first possession.  The sudden death aspect on the third possession is too big of an advantage not to take the ball first imho.

    Except the Chiefs absolutely knew they had to score at least three points on their drive.  Knowing exactly what you need is a huge advantage.  Way too many ifs to worry about that third possession.  

  9. 6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

    There was nothing stopping the 49ers from treating every new set of downs as four down territory on the first drive of overtime.

    That’s true, but if they fail to convert one time, the game’s over.  Why not just take the ball second?

  10. 13 minutes ago, Gregg said:

     

    The Bengals will have their hands full with the division. The entire North beats the crap out of one another as there are strong rivalries with all 4 teams.

    Absolutely true. That is a brutal division and will be even tougher next year.  But the Bengals definitely have our number, which is a problem above and beyond KC.  

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  11. Just now, Meatloaf63 said:

    Really? playing with half your starters out on defense is a break? A punter with one leg is a break?  Not sure what referees you were watching there was no lopsided advantage for us from the officiating. 

    Good grief...the Bills could not possibly have gotten any more breaks in that game.  The Bills recovered three of their own fumbles, Hardman fumbles through the endzone just as Chiefs were going to go up by two scores.  There were a bunch of important calls that were reviewed and every single review went the Bills' way even though several were questionable.  The Chiefs averaged just under 8 yards per play; the Bills averaged less than five yards per play.  The Chiefs had injuries on defense, too...Brian Cook was out, Derek Njadi was out, I believe Willie Gay was out, and I believe another of their LBs was out, too.  As to the punter's injury, Martin punted one time and it was a pretty good kick...an absolute non-factor.  The Bills were lucky to be in that game at the end.  

  12. 6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

    Why then, doesn't KC do that every series, all game long?

     

    The answer, of course, the odds/risk doesn't support doing so.

    I can't believe I really have to argue this point...having four chances to get a first down makes it easier to score than than having only three.  Teams don't do it all game long because in certain circumstances--depending on field position, number of yards needed to pick up the first, and the score of the game--punting makes more sense.  There simply is no question that an offense has a better chance of scoring on any given series if they have four plays to work with instead of three.  

  13. 3 hours ago, Dubie54 said:

    I don't see a whole lot of press for this guy but he has been nothing short of amazing with what he has put together in KC and how he has managed the draft and turn over of personnel without missing a beat.

     

    Just looking at the D, I was blown away last night when it was said that Chris Jones is the only remaining guy on D from their SB of 4 years ago. Here's a look at the draft over that span.

     

    2020:    Willie Gay - 63

                  Sneed -   138

    2021:  Bolton -   58

    2022:  McDuffie -  21

               Karlaftis -   30

    2023:  Uzomah  -  31

     

    I would love to see somebody go through all of the FA deals he made over this time to complement the draft picks. Amazing stuff. 

     

    Sure their rookie deals will start to expire and KC will probably not be able to re-sign all of them, but he turned the entire over in 4 years and they still won the SB, so there's no reason to think he can't do it again.

     

     

    And since 2018, KC has had 24 picks in the first four rounds of draft…they picked 17 defensive players, and of the 7 offensive players, most have been busts.  Go figure.

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  14. 28 minutes ago, Process said:

    The guy gets praised as an offensive genius and rightfully so, but he sure does choke in big games. 

     

    3 superbowls with double digit leads. 3 losses. (2 as HC)

     

    Several examples of players not executing last night, including fumbles and missed passes, so not all coaching. But it starts at the top and Bills fans should know, it's hard to overcome a HC that puts the team in bad spots. 

     

    Questionable calls on multiple key third downs, not prepared at all for KC blitz

    Stretch where it seemed like he got away from the run too much

    Could have got the ball back before halftime with 50 seconds and 1TO, but elected to let the clock run out

    Chose to receive in OT, which is inexcusable IMO. And then made it even worse by kicking the FG instead of going for a TD

    Players didn't even know the overtime rules until they saw it on the jumbotron before OT

    My working theory is that Shanahan didn't know the overtime rules, either.  It's the only explanation for that bizarre decision to take the ball first.

  15. 3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

    That of course wasn't the point. In these new NFL rules, a FG isn't in the bag. A team has to drive the length of the field to score either way.

     

    If giving Mahomes 4 downs every series is such a sure thing, why doesn't KC do that all game long? 

     

    I'm not arguing one way or the other with these new NFL rules. I'm simply saying having to drive the entire field is a thing.

    You don't see a distinct advantage in having four plays to make a first down instead of just three?

  16. 8 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

    The huge difference, comparing to college overtime, is that you can argue that you begin your possession with a FG in the bag.

    Both teams have that "advantage" in college. 

     

    In the NFL, the team that has the ball first is forced to play "conservative" three-down football the entire length of the field and, if they manage to score, the other team gets to play four-down offensive football.  Against a QB like Mahomes, that's game over.  

    5 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

     

    Your convictions are just that, yours. They are neither right nor wrong.

    What a bizarre comment.  Care to address the substance of what I said, you know, with logic?

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  17. 6 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

     

    Correct.

     

    While I was in the "take the ball second" camp, there simply isn't enough live data yet to support either position. It was said somewhere today that 120,000 simulations were run and taking the ball first, I believe, resulted in a win 50.2% of the time. Statistically, it is 50/50. 

     

     

    That's a cop-out.  All you have to do is look at college football to know that the team that has the ball second in that situation has a HUGE advantage.  I know the college rules are a little different, but the principle is the same:  Much better to know what you need to do on your first possession and potentially have the advantage of utilizing a four-down offense.  In fact, the advantage might be even more pronounced under the NFL rules because the offense has the advantage of playing four-down football the entire length of the field, not just from the opponent's 25 yard line.   

  18. 1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

    I'd always prefer to know exactly what I need rather than letting the other team know exactly what they need, especially when there is no result that ends the game in that situation.

    This is really it.  KC and Mahomes knew they needed at least three points, so until they got inside the SF 40-yardline the Chiefs were operating with an extra down--a huge advantage that Purdy did not have on SF's possession.  And if the Niners had scored a TD on their drive, that advantage becomes more--not less--pronounced, because the Chiefs are operating with four downs the entire length of the field.  Mahomes with four downs to work with in that situation is pretty much unstoppable.  As I said, it's almost like Shanahan was unaware of the rule change...that's really the only logical explanation for his decision.  

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