So you sight two cases and then conclude that anyone in the future who resets the record for most carries in league history will suffer the same drop in production? 2 cases hardly is enough to make such a blanket generalization. Larry Johnson just finished his 4th season in the NFL. He played sparingly in 6 games his rookie year, 10 games his second year, and then 16 games in his 3rd and 4th year in the NFL, the last two years hitting the 1700 yard mark. One could easily say he is coming into his prime
2003 Kansas City Chiefs 6 0 20 85 4.3 15 1 0 5
2004 Kansas City Chiefs 10 3 120 581 4.8 46 9 4 34
2005 Kansas City Chiefs 16 9 336 1750 5.2 49 20 15 97
2006 Kansas City Chiefs 16 16 416 1789 4.3 47 17 10 91
He has had only two full years of playing. Notice he only started 9 games in 2005, for a grand total of 28 games in 4 years. Taking two other players and concluding that LJ will do the same is flawed, because it fails to take into account a myriad of other possibilities for George's and Anderson's drop in production, namely the team around them, etc. You are saying because Orange A and Orange B fell off trees in different orchards the same way, that Apple A in a different orchard will also fall off its tree in a same way. Sure, it is certainly possible that LJ will never equal his past season in terms of carries or yards for a lot of possible reasons, none of which necessarily have to do with Jamal Anderson or Eddie George. I think my argument shows that your certainty that he will based solely on your analysis is misguided and is in no way worthy.