colin

assuming we ditch oliver or someone who won't impact and this won't stop us getting wr/te/ol which we really need (or i suppose pass rush if that drops in our laps, but less likely imo), then yeah i'd totally spend pegula's money on a sick power back to complete our team. now, if it's him or some sick OT who lets us move dawk inside, then ya, i take the OT. I'd even take an OG if the guy was top 10 level or maybe could also move to C when we lose morse. presuming they get jackson back, i think the biggest impact would be for henry to go to baltimore, tho. that team when they were cruising in 2019 was just a beast.

between this and what car signed for, it seems like a starting qb in the nfl who is at or above replacement quality costs 35MM per year. based on that, Jackson in baltimore will get 50+ with like 200 guaranteed. similar for dude on the chargers.

he looked slow and lost in the one game i saw him, but i figure they are going to give dodson some competition but give him a real chance to win the job. i wonder if a UDFA or some rando off the street FA would be able to provide that comp.

he also averaged those bad numbers w frazier while posting up big pass rush win rate numbers. obv, w miller getting all kinds of sacks in teh same bills scheme (albeit not the whole season), it shows houghs could be better, but ya our coaches were simply not getting max production out of our players. really hope mcd feels huge heat to show out on d as a coach next year.

This post should be an autoreply to anyone (looking at you Gunner!) making some regular season stat argument for Frazier being anything but not good enough for this team. Frazier won't adjust and is rotten cheeks in big games. being predictable on D and making fundamental alignment errors is not good enough.

8-15 touches a game, basically that's RB1 on our team. he can handle that.

Knox hasn't been consistent, but he's for sure shown big play ability. the problem is one guy is not a TE room. i don't know about what round to pick who in, but adding talent to TE is a pretty good risk reward for our O. i think we have our star RB now w cook and can back him up w whoever, but we have a team running an E-P offense that basically can't line up in two tight end sets. that's terribly limiting especially since we have such poor blocking and until middle of last season, running (w backs). lowering the level of difficulty on O for josh would make the game look unfair at times, i say we do it.

the point alpha makes here that i think is basically rock solid fact is that our falling apart when the chips are down in the playoffs is simply too much. 4 playoff exits, 4 awful D meltdowns by well rated Ds. The O coulda been better in a few of those games, sure, but we have an all timer at qb and a top 3 wr and beyond that a very slanted team wrt resources in O vs D, so we have been riding the d hard. tony romo has a well earned rep as a regular season monster and playoff goof based on his actual performances in games under pressure. not just the actual results of the W or the L, but the observable short comings he has as a player in those pressure situations (remember the extra point kick hold?). as the bills DC (and im willing to consider mcd himself as being guilty, but i'll take what i can get) has done the same freaking thing. our D has looks baffled, bamboozled, flat, unprepared and totally out of position in our playoff exists. they didnt' all forget how to play, and dquan jones being out doesn't make us forget how to cover or pass rush, especially vs an OL missing 3 starters who got worked hard vs baltimore in a game they shoulda lost (meaning that it wasn't like cincy was some on fire playing on their heads hot team either). guys 12 yards back on 3rd and 4 showing a bear front vs cincy down by 7 is just a coaching error. if you are bringing pressure, you need to cover shorter, if you aren't, you won't be able to fall back in time or run up from deep db positions to stop the 1st down, and that's exactly what happened. the kc game as has been pointed out was even worse. we have kelce on tape just changing the play because he saw how the bills were lined up. TWICE. like, if your coach can't figure out how to line up in the biggest game possible to the extent that it dooms your team, then he's gotta go. even if frazier is not at fault at all for the above (which i don't buy anyhow) he still needs to take a walk because the players on the team need to see that the prior results will not be accepted and sometimes a change itself is what makes things work. just to shake it up

id be worried that he's shot physically and just gets hurt. if we had all this cap tied up in him and von and they both got hurt next year (after being hurt the past year) it would suck SO BAD.

he's simply not a big enough of an impact player to sign for what another team will pay him, not to us and not in our D at the least. rando mid tier free agent D Jones had a bigger impact on our D being out vs cincy than edmunds ever has. the front 4 and the scheme protects the back 7 in our D, so saving and getting max value in the back 7 is the key to logistical success. a strong improvement in 1 or 2 OL positions which could be secured w what edmunds would make would do so much more to improve our team. our d would be likely slightly worse, but our OL would be much better. if we also improve by adding one additional target, not exactly an impossible task, we legit have a shot at an all time type of offense w josh allen running the show.

the offseason aside from plugging a couple holes at LB, S, and DT, we have to come away with at least 2 new guys on OL (they don't both have to start, but they have to be there) and at least one new starting quality WR (i suppose a TE and depth at WR might do, but we need a new productive target). I could see a couple picks going towards IOL and working out (heck, i'd take just one working out) but i think we either have to drop a 1st on OT or find a solid OT in FA. this will let us move or move on from brown if he's not better/healthy, or if he is, maybe put the new OT at LT and move dawkins inside. If possible, i'd trade oliver for a 3rd (or whatever) and use those savings (and also either rework hynes or cut him) to get a real OT in FA. if we do that and get like decent jags for LB, DT, RB, and S, and also draft a nice WR and draft an IOL or two, i'd expect us to be a better team Jan 2024 than we were Jan 2023.

i think you are onto something with what happened within the bills org, but i think LF won't get HC looks because like KC's OC, he's seen as not really being the guy who runs the D, or at the very least that he doesn't run the D well without the influence of his HC. I think that's correct, and i think w mcd being more involved we will look better in 2023

Lol, it really is some gas lighting. i really hope this is just soft corch speak and kayfabe to obscure what they are really gonna do. we need two additions at WR/TE, Two new OL, and something at safety and DT. I expect hynes to walk and us to get an RB as well, but it just has to be a warm body condidering 6mm a year hynes got like 12 touches. better protection will help us run and pass, and most importantly stop the total write off blow up plays that we have way too often due to protection breakdowns. throw in two additional actual NFL targets and i legit don't think there is a d in the nfl that can contain allen in a balanced d that doesn't get blown of the ball regularly.

im all for benford at safety, adn i think mcd has had such a strong record with lower draft pick DBs that he out of anyone has the best chance to make it work, but we also have to consider our future at corner. i think elam is gonna get at least 2 more years to anchor his starting spot at CB, but with his price tag, his consideration of opting out for covid, and his slow slow come back and much lower level of play, i think tre white is out the door after this season when the cap impact is acceptable. hyde, tre white, and oliver are gonna cost us about 40MM against the cap in 2023, the only one of them who i'd think has a shot at playing at a high level is hyde. i think they are all gone for 2024 and we could net improve or stay the same at each position. so it comes down to if we can find someone to replace hyde at safety vs white at CB1. i think rightly our FO considers CB1 much more important and is willing to mix and match a guy into the safety position. it should be noted that mcd is going to be much much more likely to play man d and/or just switch up coverages than frazier was too.

for anyone who is sticking to frazier is a good DC: McD is a better one. he's had much better Ds, shown more versatility and creativity, and had was Frazier's boss in buffalo. if mcd can't improve our playoff d by stepping more into the DC role, then we really don't want or need him as our head coach. mcvey, reid, that guy in cinci, and billacheat all very much had heavy control over their side of the ball as head coaches, it's time for mcd to show he can do the same.

well, i expect two things. 1, i expect the new DC to be essentially an avatar of McD. im thinking he sees how his former mentor and current despised rival Reid in KC has an avatar of himself but controls the O, and if you can't beat em join em. 2 I expect the D to be much more dynamic and multiple. it might not be as good as last year given that i expect to lose some talent, but i think we will see more meaning changes on an opponent to opponent basis.

That's a pretty good analogy (metaphor?) but when he played frasier was a much more impactful player than edmunds. my big issue is that we have one single player that for sure makes the guys around him better (von) or perhaps two (milano) on D, after all that investment. we are way better off to follow the rams model (and what we did for diggs) and trade resources for players who will make an impact, or sign in FA, given that we keep drafting and contracting up guys who are just above average, but not impact.

we got bease and brown on not so big contracts (first go round that is), im hoping we get a high value/high production/low cost/low profile guy in free agency this offseason. dquan and von and bease/brown when we got them and hyde and poy make me think we can get just enough added value from a cheaper FA pick up to keep us in super bowl running.

losing our brand new 33 year old free agent pass rusher caused our d a tremendous drop off. Losing our all pro high doller CB tre white the prior season didn't seem to impact us at all (we had similar rankings, and gave up the same kind of bad plays in the playoffs with and without him) and that was with levi wallace being our best outside CB! the strength of the mcd d is that it puts the back 7 at an advantage so you can take away the big play. the weakness is it's a lot of checks and just in time adjustments which create huge easy to exploit holes if they aren't run correctly. the salve for this in teh passing game is a pass rush. anyhow, i say if we keep our coaches, we ride their strength, which is a 1 of 11 d which should not require top flight talent up and down the pitch, and use those savings to protect our all world qb.

i did. i'll go one step further for the people who think playoff wins over wind tunnel conditions vs baltimore, squeaking past indy and miami w a 3rd string qb, and a solid beat down over new england (who we have beaten all but one time since brady left) make a great coaching staff while we are blessed w the goat JA17 at qb: aside from averaging a win in the playoffs per year, we are no better than the marvin lewis coached bengals to date. it's true that team never won in the playoffs, but they lost to strong teams, including a super bowl winner, which is more than we can say in terms of who ended our season. look, i don't want to hate our FO, and i don't want to be a lil debbie downer, but get out coached and out schemed in the playoffs every single year, and we dump boat loads of cap and resources into positions that either don't make an impact at all when it counts, or are literally riding the bench as part of a rotation, while have zilch at other important positions. all these little sins are adding up to big ones, and they must be addressed quickly.

since the season before the one just ended, when we were spread covering monsters, into the beginning of the past season, we were huge front runners. deadly when we had a decent start and lead, but if the other team hung around we basically lost them all. now, we won some close games just this past season and our O results were identical to the prior season just more consistent, but the team didn't seem to buy in and we heard that form the diggs and allen interviews recently. that's a low confidence front runner mind set -- like a boxer who doesn't trust his own chin/toughness.

they had the excuse of top talent being hurt. im not saying cinci and kc are perfect, but they are our afc rivals and they are way way better than us as teams when the chips are down. when i see the bills falter, i see either obvious coaching blunders (13 seconds) or i see a team that lacks preparation and confidence, which to me is on the coaches. my bottom line -- if the results of the bills are evidence of good coaching, then the results of marvin lewis in cinci was evidence of good coaching.

brian billick, marty shotty, reid in philly, many more if you include coordinators who got sacrificed. HC and DC staying after 13 seconds and the failure last year is legit crazy. baltimore (and you can perhaps say these moves were sacrificial, but it's at least action) shot their OC and DC after not being satisfied w how they have done, and they played cinci way better than we did in back to back weeks (shoulda won the last one), and that's w a UPS driver at QB. like, how would our team look if allen was hurt and not playing? to me the fact that we'd all assume a terrible loss (hell, we had one vs cincy w our goat qb ready to go) is a real reflection on what the coaches and front office have here sans josh allen. edit: to your point -- we have been just savagely trucked at least once in every single year that mcd has been here. sadly in 2022/2023 it was in a home divisional playoff game. between those total team lay downs and the chirping from diggs and allen, i think it's safe to say that the bills players are wise to the fact that their roster is not balanced and that their coaches are not top shelf.

bobobonators, you came back! i thought you were out! I missed you.

only the real extra positive people are still not openly questioning our FO and coaches (cover 1 guys are pretty pollyanna, but i bet they come around). all im gonna say is better coaches have been fired from less stacked teams for better results.