Reddy Freddy

Love all of these - thanks for sharing. I’ve spent more time than I care to admit looking for the video mentioned in my original post. It’s hard to find! As a side note, one of my other favorite inspirational Bills clips is Marv reciting the Sir Andrew poem (Fight on, a little I’m hurt but not yet slain ...). That one is all over YouTube. Great stuff!

Hello All, As diehard Bills fans, my family and I have often quoted an old NFL commercial (we think?) that included a line that went something like “When destiny strikes, and you know it will, you can say you were there all along.” It was in the context of why fans follow their teams and stay loyal through thick and thin. With the Bills in the middle of a pretty special run, we’ve been trying to find the old commercial, but can’t find it anywhere. Does this commercial ring a bell for anyone else? Any idea where to find it? Thanks very much, and here’s hoping destiny is about to strike!

If this is how it plays out, it won’t really be the Bills’ losses to the Jets or Bengals that bother me. It’ll be the Titans’ losses to the 49ers and Rams. If they had won one of those games, we’d get it under the scenario you laid out above (would put Bills, Titans, and Chargers in 3-way tie at 9-7, which Bills would win). The Titans loss to the 49ers in particular hurt - long, last-second FG by the Niners to win it.

Agree. I think they have a solid chance vs. Rams.

One down, two to go ...

Sorry but we DO get in under that scenario. KC at 9-7 wins the division over the Chargers, so the Chiefs are not up against us in wild card scenarios. If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to play with the ESPN playoff machine. It isn't 100% accurate always, but it's been pretty good lately. Agreed. That Chiefs-Chargers game is tricky, but I think we're in slightly better shape if the Chiefs win. Regarding the bolded part above, it actually doesn't matter what the Chiefs do the rest of the way if they beat the Chargers. All that has to happen are the 3 items I listed in my original post. Assuming the Chiefs beat the Chargers, KC either goes 9-7 or 10-6 and wins the division over the Chargers, or they go 8-8, lose the division, and are below us in the standings anyway (assuming Bills win 2 of 3). In either case, we don't end up in a tie for a wild card with the Chiefs.

Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place. I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in: 1) Bills win 2 of their final 3 2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend 3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville

It's not this straightforward. We have the tiebreakers on KC and Oak if it's just a two-way tie between us and one of them. If there are 3 or more teams, the tiebreakers are different and head-to-head matters less. I think it's actually better for the Bills if KC wins the West at this point because in a multi-team tie at 9-7, they would beat us out and the Chargers would not.

If the Bills win this Sunday vs Miami, I believe they will be alive entering week 17 no matter what else happens. Tinkering with the various playoff simulators, I can't get a combo where Bills win this week and then have no chance in week 17. Miracle? If Bills beat Dolphins twice and lose to NE, they make it two-thirds of the time, according to the NYT playoff simulator. As it stands today, they have about a 1-in-4 chance. Hardly a miracle. This is so amazingly wrong. They make it at 9-7 65% of the time, according to the NYT simulator, assuming the wins come against Miami. Bills MIGHT need to win out, but it's probable they will only need to get to 9-7.

Thanks for explaining this. I noticed on the NYT playoff simulator that our odds actually IMPROVE if the Ravens beat the Browns next week. I'm still not sure why it would actually help us if the Ravens beat the Browns, but this explains why a Browns win doesn't do much for us.

This is not true.

So this is weird, but the NYT playoff machine actually has us with a better shot at the playoffs if the Browns beat the Ravens next week. I can’t imagine why this would be true.

This is totally false. At 9-7, we’d be better than 50-50 to make it according to the NYT playoff simulator.

The New York Times playoff simulator has the Bills making it about 23% of the time if they win out. Odd as it sounds, I think we have a decent chance of winning out, and I'm not too concerned about passing the Jets and Raiders if that happens. The problem is that KC is almost certainly not going to lose its last 3 games and since Pitt won today it is now very difficult to catch them. Seems very possible that they could lose to Den next week, but it's asking a lot to have either Bal or Cle beat them in the last 2 weeks of the season. The bottom line is that if the Bills and Broncos win next week, things get interesting again.

I agree. In this scenario, we actually have a little better than 50-50 shot to make it, according to the NYT Playoff Simulator.

Agreed, but don't discount those two division games to close the season. Granted the Steelers are much better than the Ravens and Browns this year, but those division games have a way of being close no matter the records.

Here's how I think about it: 1) Split the next two road games vs. Pats and Chiefs 2) Beat the Texans at home 3) Split the two road games vs. Eagles and Skins 4) Then either split the two home games to close the season vs. Cowboys and Jets (if you think 9 wins gets us in) or sweep those last two games (if you think it'll take 10 wins). I happen to think it's very likely 9 wins will do it, especially if those 9 include a second win vs. the Jets. Assuming we sweep the Jets and end the season at 9-7, the Jets would have to go 5-1 in their other 6 games to finish ahead of us. Unlikely. Then you're looking at hoping 9 wins (or tiebreakers) will put us ahead of either the Steelers OR Raiders. I think it will. There's always the chance another team like the Chiefs catches fire, but that seems unlikely.

My theory on this: The Bills and Clay could have an understanding that a deal will happen. But the Bills have waited to make their offer. All the while, Miami gets nervous and signs other players, including Cameron, thus making it much harder for them to match the Bills' offer. Genius! Or perhaps I'm reading too much into it and he's heading back to Miami to sign with them haha.

I actually think we could make a move for Cousins. I know he wasn't great last year, but I like the way he plays and just have a totally uninformed hunch the Bills do too. Trade for Cousins and then either sign a FA (I'd go for Hoyer or Locker, personally) or draft a QB in the middle rounds.

Mark, you are correct. I was blindly following the results shown by the ESPN playoff machine, but it does not take into account record vs. common opponents. Bummer.

I'm not sure how you're setting it, but I simply chose the default setting of power rankings. Then I made week 16 your "doomsday" scenario, with Pittsburgh, Cincy, San Diego and Baltimore all winning (along with the Bills winning of course). Then in week 17 I give the Bills the win, and Balt, San Diego, and Cincy all losses. In this scenario the Bills make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of the Jax game, the GB game, or any other game. I have not seen this officially reported/confirmed anywhere, but according to my (rather obsessive) tinkering with the ESPN playoff machine, if the Bills beat the Raiders then they will go into week 17 alive and kickin'.

Nope. My friend, just google espn playoff machine and play with a little. Green Bay and Jax do not need to win in week 17. I wouldn't waste too much time looking at conference records, strength of schedule, etc. Let espn do it for you, and correctly at that!

This is incorrect. Even if the above teams win, the Bills are still alive going into week 17 as long as they beat Oakland. Just confirmed it using the playoff machine. In this scenario, Bills get in if they win and the Browns, Steelers and Chiefs also win in week 17.

Djp, I think you corrected this later in the thread, but this is not accurate. I'm fact, I cannot come up with a scenario where the Bills win next week and are still eliminated. There could be one, but I haven't found it yet. If anyone isn't familiar with it, the ESPN playoff machine is very helpful in determining who beats whom in tiebreakers and why.

This is not accurate. There is at least one scenario where we beat out Baltimore if we both finish with 10 wins. The playoff machine is great for proving/disproving stuff like this.