Orton's Arm

Very good post! I personally think of Eli Manning as a franchise QB. Last season Eli had an average of 7.9 yards per attempt; and this year it's 7.2. Peyton's career average is 7.6. I'm not saying Eli is as good as his brother; but the difference between the two is considerably less than it used to be. But if Eli is labeled a franchise QB, it only strengthens the case you've made above. Most franchise QBs tend to be found in the first round, as you've pointed out. It's also worth noting that at least this year, no team without a franchise QB is a legitimate threat to do something serious in the postseason. (Except maybe the Jets. Maybe.) An elite QB, alone, can't do much. He'll get constantly sacked, or his receivers will drop his passes, or the defense will ignore the (nonexistent) running game to focus on shutting down the passing game. But once you start getting decent, respectable play from your offensive supporting cast, an elite QB can significantly elevate the production of the offense as a whole. Add in a few elite players on offense to go with him, and a solid defense, and you'll have yourself a very serious team!

If I was the Bills' GM, I'd do the following in the first round: Preference #1: trade up in the draft to acquire Luck. That would likely involve giving up the Bills' first round pick, Fitzpatrick, and probably at least one other thing of major value. Preference #2: Add a solid RDE well-suited for the 3-4. Preference #3: Add a WR like Green. Preference #4: Add a pass rushing OLB. Then in the second round I'd likely take a RT; assuming there was one there worth taking, and assuming I still had a second round pick after the hoped-for Luck trade. I'd also strongly consider taking Ponder in the second round, assuming he was still available. If you were the Bills' GM, what would you do in the 2011 draft?

This. An elite QB is both the most important, and single hardest-to-acquire, component of a championship team. Teams that win championships without elite-level QB play--such as the Ravens of 2000--are very rare. Once you have the elite QB, it shouldn't be that hard to surround him with a solid supporting cast. And if there's the occasional elite level player sprinkled into that mix, you can expect your team to go far.

The Bills have their best offensive coaching since Ted Marchibroba. That's a huge positive, considering that ever since the end of the K-gun, the Bills' offensive coaching has generally been either unimaginative and predictable (most of it), too pass happy + predictable (Gilbride), or just flat-out bad. Now we have an offensive play caller who actually knows what he's doing, and it shows!

I completely agree about the value of Luck. Bills fans have suffered enough already, without the added punishment of watching Luck go to some other team, just because we won meaningless games against the Bengals and Lions.

This is an excellent point. The Bills could really, really use a top-tier QB or RDE!!

This.

The five stages of grief are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Many Bills fans--myself included--have gone through some of those stages WRT the Bills' past early draft picks on CBs. I think stage 3/the bargaining stage = "at least we won't have to worry about the defensive secondary anymore." Stage 4 = a recognition that the Bills' secondary still has plenty of holes, or at least serious question marks. The other part of stage 4/depression stage is the realization that the Bills may well use yet more early picks on DBs.

Thanks for the compliments about my posting in general. I got a chuckle out of that last part! I wish I could take back that stuff about the first round CB. Unfortunately, I think a first round CB is a strong possibility for either 2011 or 2012. I'm not one to object to having talented cornerbacks, but the amount of first round picks this team has used on defensive backs over the years is absolutely staggering; and is a key reason for the decade-long playoff drought. Since 2001, the Bills have used three first round picks on defensive backs: Nate Clements, Donte Whitner, and Leodis McKelvin. They used a second rounder on Byrd, and third rounders on Coy Wire and Ashton Youboty. Of those players, Clements went first-contract-and-out, Whitner proved better at hitting and tackling than at covering TEs, McKelvin gets fooled far too easily, Byrd hasn't been playing well lately, and Wire and Youboty were not starter quality. There's not a single success story in any of that.!! The front office's dysfunctionality WRT the defensive secondary is a microcosm of the mismanagement of the team as a whole. Take Jabari Greer for example. He was an UDFA, he played well for the Bills, he wanted to stay in Buffalo, and his contract demands were inline with his performance. But we let him walk, having been outbid by the Saints by $500,000/year. Leodis McKelvin had been drafted shortly before Greer walked away. Possibly McKelvin's presence on the roster was why the Bills weren't more aggressive about keeping Greer. But at least right now, McKelvin's instincts look poor, which may well prevent him from being a good player. That means that the Bills will have blown the 11th overall pick in order to get a downgrade from Greer at one of the starting CB spots. As of today, the nickel package for the 2011 Bills will contain McGee, McKelvin, Florence, Byrd, and Whitner. Of those five guys, there's not one you can point to and say, "This guy is a solid answer!" Not one. McGee has nerve damage + age, McKelvin questionable instincts, Florence is getting older, Whitner is a liability in coverage, and Byrd hasn't played well lately. If Jauron was still here to see that mess, he's shake his head, wait until draft day, and then . . . ! Right now the Bills' secondary is a mess because the Bills have sometimes drafted poorly (Whitner, Youboty, possibly McKelvin and/or Byrd), and because they've let their best players walk. Back when Winfield was a Bill, no Bills' DB was more worth keeping than him. You could also say the same about Clements--at least after Winfield had left--and you could say it about Greer. That's three different times in the past decade when the Bills' DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment walked in free agency with no compensation!! As a Bills fan, I'd love to be able to tell myself that we got some compensation for the misery of the Jauron years. You'd think that with a defensive back as the head coach, another defensive back as the defensive coordinator, and a slew of early picks used on DBs, that the Bills' defensive secondary would be in fine shape, even if everything else was in shambles. Unfortunately that isn't the case; and there seem to be about as many holes at DB as at any other four or five randomly chosen positions you'd care to name. My own preference is to focus on key areas like QB, OL, and DL first if and when possible. But there's a chance the Bills' front office may see things differently.

Any time you draft a quarterback in the first round, you want to be reasonably confident he's going to be better than the guy you already have. With Fitzpatrick on the roster, that makes it tough for the Bills to take a QB in the first. Unless Carolina goes on a winning streak these next few weeks, odds are Luck won't be there when the Bills pick. I know that in your heart of hearts you want the Bills to take Mallett. My concern there is that while Mallett would be an improvement over Fitz in terms of arm strength, he might well be a downgrade in terms of reading defenses and making good decisions. If Mallett plays no better than Fitz, any first round pick used on him will have been mostly wasted.

Good post, as usual! Here are some of my thoughts. 1) Agreed about Fitz. He's not the problem, though I'd like to see the Bills take Luck if they can. 2) I think that Stevie Johnson is capable of reliably holding onto the football. Maybe his mental focus was off last week. 3) I agree that a long-term solution at LT should not look the way Bell did against the Vikings. 5) McKelvin has the physical talent to be a very good CB. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he has the brains or instincts to go with that talent. 7) Even though I think the Bills need to focus on their draft position, I too felt sorry for Gailey. He deserves better than this. 9) I think that Whitner is good at making hits and tackles, but is a liability in pass coverage against better TEs. 10) I completely agree that the right side of the OL may as well have not taken the field against the Vikings. I realize some of those problems will get fixed once injured players come back, but the Bills still need a RT. 11) After yesterday's game, I'm less optimistic than I'd been. A few weeks ago, I would have said that if the Bills could get an elite QB, two elite pass rushers for their defensive front-7, and a few solid players at other positions (such as RT and LB), they'd be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Now I'm not so sure. Fitz is solid, but not elite. Everything else from that list is still a need. Plus they can't have guys like Bell getting dominated as he was yesterday, or McKelvin playing the way he did. Then you have to think about whether McGee will fully recover from his injuries. As scary as it is to say this, the Bills might actually have a hole at starting CB. I'm not happy about that, for obvious reasons! Especially because you'd normally expect to have to use a first round pick on your #1 CB. :angry: I mean, with all the early draft picks that have been dumped into the secondary over the last five years or so, you'd think that was one part of the football team we wouldn't have to worry about!! The four most valued positions on draft day are QB, RDE, LT, and CB. A guy like Nix might think to himself, if CB is one of the four most premium positions, and if the Bills don't have a true #1 CB, and if the best player available when the Bills' first round pick comes along is a CB, it might make sense to . . .. Conversely, if the Bills ignore the apparent CB problem over the next few years, it will hurt them. A team should have a good #1 CB--like an Antoine Winfield--so that you're not forced to double-cover the other team's best WR. Not only that, but if you're right about Steve Johnson, then WR becomes yet another hole to be filled. Lee Evans isn't getting any younger or better.

I tend to agree with this. If Luck is a franchise QB--somewhere between Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning--you pay the price you have to pay to get him. The Bills could consider giving up their first round pick in this year's draft + Fitz + possibly something else to get Luck. Then they'd have a guy who can become one of the best QBs in the league: a guy to build around.

No problem. In the future when posting links, use <url=Your_Link_Goes_Here>write something here</url> . Except replace the < and > with [ and ] .

Try this.

Emmitt Smith had one of the best-ever OLs to block for him. Barry Sanders had a mediocre line. Emmitt Smith had a Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek passing game to take the pressure off the running game. Barry Sanders had nothing to take the pressure off the running game besides Herman Moore. Barry Sanders averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his entire career. Emmitt Smith only had one season where he reached or exceeded 5.0 yards per carry (out of 15 total seasons played). Smith's career average was 4.2 yards per carry; despite having had one of the best OLs in NFL history to block for him. You tell me which was the better back.

I agree with your bolded sentence. But that said, you sometimes want to upgrade a unit that's already good. Joe Montana and the 49ers offense were very productive, and helped the team win two Super Bowl championships, even before they added Jerry Rice. The Patriots offense was still productive the year they had Antowain Smith at RB and nobody in particular at WR. But the 49ers still benefited hugely by adding Rice, just as the Patriots' offense took a big step up with the addition of Randy Moss. Fitzpatrick isn't as good as Joe Montana or even Tom Brady. But if he's doing this well with the receiving corps he has, think how much more he could achieve with the addition of an elite, game-changing WR. I'm not saying that Green is the only option the Bills should consider. Clearly, if Green and a RDE with an equal player grade are available when the Bills pick, they should choose the RDE. No question there. It gets a little more iffy if it's a toss-up between Green and an OLB; and that's something that could be argued either way. But if there are no front-7 players with Green-like grades available when the Bills pick, taking Green represents a very viable option. Obviously, if the Bills have the chance to draft Luck, they should do that instead of the RDE, OLB, etc.

I agree that, if there's a RDE worthy of a top-5 pick available for the Bills, they should take him over Green. I'm less enthused about them using a top-5 pick on a NT, both because it's less of a premium position than RDE, and because of the presence of Kyle Williams and Troupe. I'm not saying I wouldn't take a NT in the top-5--just that that position is a lot lower on my list than RDE. I consider OLB to be even less of a premium position than NT. Weighed against that is the fact the Bills really need a pass-rushing OLB, but don't necessarily need an NT. Moreover, an elite pass-rushing OLB would do wonders for the defense. I agree that a defensive front-7 player would likely provide more help in 2011 than would a WR like Green. My focus here is more on 2012, because that's the very earliest the Bills could be ready to make a serious Super Bowl run. That gives the Bills two drafts, and two offseasons, to prepare. Suppose, for example, that they were to do the following in the 2011 draft: 1: Green, WR 2. TE 3. RT 4a. LB 4b. LB If all those picks worked, and if Fitz turns out to be a top-10 QB, the offense could become one of the league's best. I realize that's a lot of ifs, and that Fitz still doesn't have the same level of accuracy you'd expect from an elite QB. But with the attributes he does have, and with the addition of guys like Green, a go-to TE, and a solid RT, the Bills' offense could easily become one of the league's five best. You could point out that, to achieve that, I've neglected the defense almost completely, beyond adding some bodies at LB in round 4. That's a fair criticism. The Bills' defense requires a very good RDE, a very good pass rushing OLB, and the addition of solid players at some other front-7 positions to get to where it needs to be. Possibly, one or both of those 4th rounders could become some of those solid players. But under this plan, the Bills would need to take either a RDE or a pass rushing OLB with their first round pick in 2012. And then they'd probably need to add another front-7 defensive player in the second round of the 2012 draft. If all that happened, think of the result! The Bills' opponents in 2012 would have to somehow find a way to stop Green, Johnson, Evans, and that 2nd round TE. (Not to mention Spiller or Jackson as outlet receivers.) The offensive line would be respectable. Fitz would bring a respectable (not great) level of accuracy, and a very good ability to read defenses, look off safeties, and be an on-field general. The Bills' defensive front-7 would be considerably better than it is today. Other teams would not be happy to see a team like that on their schedules!

A.J. Green is 6'4", very fast, and with very soft hands. If Green turned into the next Larry Fitzgerald--or even the next Eric Moulds--he would add another very powerful weapon for the offense. Ideally, your offense should have what I'd consider to be a true #1 WR. By that I mean a guy who can consistently produce 1000 yard seasons despite constant double coverage. Lee Evans isn't that. Neither has Stevie Johnson proved to be that, yet. But even if Johnson becomes that kind of WR, having two WRs who can consistently produce at a high level despite double coverage wouldn't be terrible. In fact it would make the Bills' receiving corps very difficult to defend! A team that Darrell Revis-ed one of the two WRs would get burned by the other. And they'd also have to worry about Evans going deep. I'll grant that a good RDE is more valuable than an equally good WR. A team would normally take its LTs, RDEs, and QBs early, and players like WRs and LBs a little later on. The only way you should take a WR or OLB in the top-10 is if you're confident you're getting a very special player indeed. Adding an Eric Moulds or a Larry Fitzgerald would significantly improve the offense, while adding a very good OLB would significantly enhance the defense. I don't like using the word "luxury" to describe the former pick or "need" to describe the latter; because both picks would significantly enhance their respective units. Conversely, the Spiller pick has not--yet?--significantly enhanced the offense; because there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between Jackson + Lynch versus Jackson + Spiller. There's nothing that says you should have roughly the same level of talent on offense as on defense. Sometimes you want to be elite on one side of the ball, while being solid/respectable on the other side. The Ravens of 2000 were elite on defense, the Rams of the late '90s were elite on offense; and both teams won Super Bowls. Adding a player like Green would be part of a larger bid to become elite on offense; while at the same time continuing to upgrade the defense and transition to the 3-4.

I'd like a draft along those lines. Bowers plays at about 280, which seems fine for a 3-4 RDE--at least to me. Maybe it would help if he added 5 - 10 pounds, but I don't think he'd need to do more than that. However, odds are the Bills won't be picking in the top-3, so Bowers might not be an option. If he's off the board when the Bills pick, they could think of adding a WR like A.J. Green, or a defensive lineman like Marcel Dareus. Having Green, Johnson, and Lee Evans on the field at once would give Fitzpatrick a lot of options.

I completely agree that, if Luck is there, the Bills have to take him. Period. But for the Bills to get the top pick, they need to go 0-5 down the stretch, and Carolina needs to start sneaking in some wins. Or, they might be able to trade up for Luck.

Good post! I agree with just about everything you've written here, so I'll focus on expanding on point #3 (whether to focus on offense or defense in the offseason). I think that the only way the Bills should take a QB early is if they feel he has a good chance of being a significant upgrade over Fitz. With the way Fitz is playing, that's a pretty high bar! If they don't use their first round pick on a QB, they should probably go with a defensive front 7 player. As you've pointed out yourself, Bell is improving, and there are no OTs worthy of going in the top-5 anyway. Ideally, the Bills would take a RT in the second round. But--especially if they're going to continue transitioning to a 3-4--they're going to need more LBs. So a LB in the third round would make good sense.

This is the first year in which Stevie got any real playing time. Obviously he didn't have much chance to emerge last year when he was sitting on the bench watching Terrell Owens play. This year he got off to a slow start because of his lack of experience, lack of familiarity with the new offense Gailey was implementing, and because of Edwards' problems at QB. But now he's familiar, he has a QB who gets him the ball, he's on the field, and he's playing well. (Other than yesterday's slew of drops.) Obviously, Fitz deserves a ton of credit for his toughness, desire to win, football intelligence, choosing the correct target to throw to, and being a superb on-field general. But Johnson's done a very good job of getting open, and I'm not sure that Fitz deserves the credit for that!

Exactly. Unless they can get close to 9th overall value for Spiller--which won't happen--it would be a bad idea to trade Spiller away. Like you said, Jackson is going to decline in a few years. If Spiller is gone when that happens, the Bills would decide they "needed" another first round RB. The only way to stop the hemorrhaging of first round picks on the RB position is to keep the talented RBs we have for as long as possible.

Taking a QB in the 4th or later could be part of a good strategy. You could get yourself a good depth player if you're not satisfied with Brohm + Brown as your backups. There's even a chance--however small--of getting a QB who'd be an upgrade to Fitz. (And in the likely event that he doesn't prove to be an upgrade, all you've lost is a 4th rounder.) But the quarterbacks with a solid chance to be an upgrade over Fitz--such as Luck and Ponder--will go much earlier in the draft. My first choice would be to do whatever the Bills have to do to get Luck on the team. My second would be Ponder: a QB who, like Ramius said, is a very smart, hard-working, accurate, tough QB. As for Mallett: the video that started this thread made me like him more, not less. Mallett watched the tape of each of his past performances, saw there was a problem with his emotional approach, owned up to it, and started to do what he could to fix it. That puts him above the Ryan Leaf level, at least to me. He's still not someone I personally would draft in the first round, and I'm not convinced he could provide a significant upgrade over Fitz. But I could see him having a decent career--possibly the 20th best starting QB, or something like that.

A long-term strategy for building a winning football team should not be based on what you'd say to random players at a bar.