Orton's Arm

I have no problem trashing our season--this team isn't going anywhere this year anyway, and should be thinking about what's best for next year. Obviously a seasoned vet like Holcomb is going to be better than a first-year starter like Losman, at least in the short term. The Bills should start whichever QB they believe has the potential to be the better answer in the long term. By starting Holcomb, you get to see whether he can sustain his high QB rating over the course of an entire season. By starting Losman, you can see whether whatever success he may be having in practice will carry over into games. Of course, if Losman does a lousy job in practice, it's an easy decision. Give the game snaps to Holcomb, because you already know Losman isn't ready.

I felt the Bills played with a lot of heart against NE. Their main problems were caused by the refs (such as the catch that wasn't a catch, the offensive pass interference that hadn't been called as such all game). The scrubs also created some problems, like Gandy's missed block that caused the fumble. Then there was that playcall on 4th and 7 which had only two guys--both 5'10"--go beyond the first down marker. Even though the Bills ultimately went down to defeat, I felt that for the most part, their core veterans played with a lot of passion and desire. When a man gives a task everything he has, you have to give him credit for that, win or lose.

I liked the pick then, and based on the information available it was probably a good pick. Certainly no reasonable person could expect a GM to avoid busts and other disappointments 100% of the time. At least TD was using a first day draft pick to address the offensive line, which is unlike him.

If it's such an easy spot to fill, why hasn't TD filled it?

You may be right, though I would find it odd that TD would force a coordinator--and especially a coordinator like THAT--onto a head coach. Maybe the Mike Shepherd firing was encouraged or forced by TD. However, I think that Gilbride and Gregg Williams were with the Houston/Tennessee franchise at the same time. If I had to guess, I'd say the resulting familiarity between Williams and Gilbride was the main factor in the latter's hiring.

The alternative--an history--has its roots in the Norman conquest and the resulting mix between French and English. The letter H tends to be silent in French. This resulted in a situation where, in English, the letter H is sometimes treated as silent for a/an purposes even when the H is pronounced.

You are correct.

Not sure who this is addressed to, but I agree the Bills in 2000 achieved more than any of TD's teams have. But that team had basically peaked, and was on the decline. I disagree. The Bills played with a lot of heart this past week in NE; the sign of a good head coach. The position coaches Mularkey has chosen are excellent. Jim McNally is the very offensive line coach many or most posters on this board had been dreaming of, and is hands-down better than any offensive line coach in recent Bills history. The receivers coach is the same guy who coached Anquan Boldin to his 1000 yard rookie season. The QB coach is Sam Wyche--a former head coach. While the jury is still out on Tom Clements, clearly Mularkey's offensive position coaches are part of the solution to the Bills' problems. The same could be said about Mularkey himself. Look at TD's Pittsburgh hires: Tom Modrack, Dick LeBeau, Mike Mularkey. Compare them to his non-Pittsburgh hires: Gregg Williams, Jerry Gray, Kevin Gilbride, Mike Shepherd. TD would have done well to have hired only Pittsburgh people. You and me both, though I would welcome a new defensive coordinator.

Why didn't the Bengals draft a small but speedy WR with their second round pick, or else a high motor DE?

It depends on how you look at it. Yes, the 2000 Bills were a special teams tackle away from a playoff win against a team that ultimately lost the Super Bowl. But like the waning years of the Kelly era, the success of the 2000 season was largely based on aging players. One of the main reasons for Butler's success was continuity. Wade Philips was the defensive coordinator or head coach for Butler's entire tenure, thus ensuring that players could be selected for one particular defensive system. John Fina spent basically his whole career with the Bills. Because of continuity and good defensive coaching--two things Donahoe's teams have lacked--Butler's teams were greater than the sum of their parts. But continuity can only get you so far when your players are over the hill. There wasn't a strong group of younger guys to step in and take the place of those who were retiring. There was little or no young talent on the offensive line, there was nothing as far as the starting QB, only a stopgap RB, no young talent at TE, and the defense was getting old. Aging players like John Fina had been paid far more than they were worth. It was a bad situation no matter how you slice it. Donahoe did the right thing by getting rid of anyone who was old and expensive. But he made his own situation worse than it needed to be by bringing in a defensive head coach. The switch to the new scheme helped squeeze out some of the younger defensive players Butler had found; players who went on to have success elsewhere. Yes, the cleanup had to be done, and yes, it had to be painful. But had Donahoe been less heavy-handed, there would be more than one Butler player on the roster today. And the Bills would be a stronger team.

Not a bad prediction.

JDG is correct. Peerless Price was drafted by Butler. I distinctly remember Rob Johnson completing a key pass to him in that playoff game against Tennessee.

Put up a QB rating almost twice that of Losman's. But that's not the issue. Nobody expects a first-year starter like Losman to win a head-to-head competition against a veteran like Holcomb. The real question is, which QB, if either, will be the right one for the Bills next year? While the Bills have many directions they can go for QB of the future, their three main choices are these: 1. Losman. With the picks already invested in him, this seems like a natural choice. As his defenders vehemently (and correctly) point out, his low QB rating for his first four starts shouldn't be a concern. What I'm more worried about is the fact he didn't show the flashes Phil Simms expects to see from a QB with a good future. I've also seen stuff to indicate that Losman has been having problems in practice. Also, Eli Manning gave Kurt Warner a run for his money in preseason, while Holcomb clearly outplayed Losman in this year's preseason. Overall, too little is known about Losman to write him off as a bust just yet. 2. Holcomb. On the plus side, Holcomb's QB rating while with the Bills has been extremely high at 92. The players in the locker room all seem like they are either neutral or want Holcomb to play, indicating that he must be doing something right. The locker room was far more divided in the Johnson/Flutie days, even though Johnson, like Losman, had had little starting experience. On the negative side, Holcomb hasn't thrown for very many deep passes with the Bills. There are those who see this as a function, not just of a lack of pass protection or of playcalling, but a sign that Holcomb lacks the needed level of arm strength. 3. Draft. It would really stink if the Bills watched Losman turn into the next Todd Collins, while QBs in this upcoming draft became the next Mannings and Roethlisbergers. Since the Bills stand to pick nice and early in the upcoming draft, there needs to be a sense of urgency about evaluating Losman.

No, you may not!

There are three pillars to a successful team: OL, DL, QB. Make sure that all three are solid, and then build around them. If TD has a chance at a franchise QB, and if Losman isn't showing much in practice or in games by the end of the year, it would be very hard to not pull the trigger. But regardless of which direction TD goes at QB, he needs to do something to beef up both sides of the line.

It's a good thing you're trying to hijack this thread, because we need another thread debating the merits and demerits of Losman.

While I believe it's unfair and mistaken to write a new QB off on the basis of only four starts, I do have to point out that thus far, Losman has done nothing to support your contention that he isn't a Ryan Leaf. ANY first round pick is a potential bust, and remains so until he proves otherwise on the field.

While I largely agree with your assessment of Butler, I'm not as optimistic about TD's performance as you are. Other than Aaron Schoebel--a player who is a little above average for a starter--there isn't a solid nucleus of young talent on the defensive line. Nor is there much of a foundation at linebacker, except for another decent player in Angelo Crowell. The CB and FS positions are somewhat promising, even if Clements leaves in free agency. But there is nothing in the pipeline at SS. The young talent on the offensive line consists of Duke Preston and Mike Williams--nothing more. Mike Williams is this year's Jonas Jennings--overpaid for the amount of time he's actually on the field. At QB, Losman is largely an unknown, and ultimately may turn out to be a bust. The same is true of this year's picks at WR and TE. Willis McGahee is an excellent player, and I still have high hopes for Evans. Euhus may turn out to be a decent player. But ultimately TD's drafts have left too many holes in the roster, and these holes are being filled with declining players like Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams, London Fletcher, Troy Vincent, Trey Teague, or Chris Villarreal. Further, stopgap players like Gandy and Anderson have been used to make up for a lack of good o-line picks.

I agree that Carolina is one of the best teams in the NFC. The team with the best chance at keeping Carolina from the Super Bowl is probably the NY Giants. Eli Manning is the real deal.

Excellent post. I think one of the problems with TO is that he gets bored easily, and likes stirring things up to make life more interesting. Much like many of the posters on this forum. Whether you could keep this problem manageable depends on your overall team chemistry.

What stands out about those drafts is that only one first-day pick was used on the o-line: Robert Hicks. Not only were Butler and TD alike in their neglect of the o-line, but their successes seem similar too. TD's main drafting successes: - Willis McGahee - Nate Clements - Terrence McGee - Lee Evans (based on his rookie year only) - Aaron Schoebel Butler's main drafting successes in his last five years here: - Antoine Winfield - Peerless Price (based on the Atlanta trade) - Sam Cowart - Eric Moulds - Jay Riemersma Both GMs had some success at finding good non-QB offensive skill position players, with an occassional good player thrown in on defense. So far, the uncertainty at the QB position is still unsolved, as are the problems with the offensive line.

Based on media reports at the time, TD was the only candidate considered.

Below is a list of what I would consider TD's avoidable mistakes: 1. The final four candidates for 2001's head coach position. During the Wade Phillips era, the defensive scheme was excellent, the players always came to play, and the defense seemed to be at its best when the stakes were highest. His coaching problems were on offense and special teams. Clearly, what was needed was a coach who could fix the offensive coaching problems while leaving the defense alone, much as Gruden did for Tampa Bay. Instead, the final four candidates for the head coaching job were all from the defensive side of the ball. Gregg Williams' tenure resulted in a decrease in the quality of defensive coaching, while doing nothing to solve the offensive coaching problems. 2. TD's treatment of the QB position. At the time it was made, the Bledsoe trade was clearly a mistake. The man in the best position to evaluate Bledsoe--Bill Belichick--wouldn't have traded him to a division rival if he'd thought Bledsoe still had the potential for greatness. Arguably the biggest difference between Brady and Bledsoe is how much more quickly Brady scans the field. TD had to know Bledsoe would read the field even more slowly over time, and this problem would be made worse by Buffalo's problems with the offensive line. Many or most experts felt the 2004 draft had a big three when it came to QBs: Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger. On the one hand, TD could have paid the hefty price needed to trade up for one of the big three. On the other, he could have taken a QB with low draft pick so that even a bust wouldn't set the franchise back very much. Instead he took a middle road: the Losman pick was valuable enough that the franchise will get hurt if he fails, but it wasn't high enough to give the same chance to resolve the uncertainty at QB that a top 3 QB would have had. Making the situation worse is the fact that TD laid the foundation for a QB controversy before the season even started. At present, the franchise won't commit to Holcomb because Losman is a first round pick. Nor will it commit to Losman, because Holcomb is playing better. The predictable result of this situation TD has created is the same merry-go-round we had back in the Flutie/Johnson days. 3. TD's neglect of the offensive line. The two most effective methods of building an offensive line are to use high draft picks, or to install an unusual system/philosophy which allows you to have success with a different type of offensive lineman than most other teams are looking for. A good example of this second method is teams like Denver and Atlanta looking for smaller, more athletic linemen. NE has had success building a line with late-round picks, apparently because it values intelligence and toughness more than athleticism. TD has failed to build a line through either of the two methods. No TD pick chosen after round 3 has become a permanent starter on the Bills' line. As for using high draft picks, TD has had a total of 15 first-day draft picks in his tenure with the Bills. Of those 15, two have been used on the offensive line. That's 13% of his first-day picks. Yet five out of 22, or 23%, of a team's starters are offensive linemen. Based on TD's actions in the first day of the draft, filling a position on the offensive line is only about half as important as an average starting position. Making the problem worse is the fact that TD allowed Jonas Jennings to leave via free agency. In TD's fifth year, there is only one starter on the o-line obtained via the draft. The Peerless Price move was a good move, an example of TD making another team's irrational love for one of your players work for you instead of against you. He should have done the same thing the next year with Antoine Winfield. While TD has had his share of successes as well as failures, he has failed to set a strong overall direction for the team. In retrospect, A.J. Smith would have been a much better hire.

Why be happy about that? It's not like anyone in the AFC East is going anywhere in the playoffs anyways. The season has become a competition for draft picks.

Excellent thinking by TD. He's had a lot of success in the past with QBs the Patriots have given up on.