Casey D

During the introduction of yesterday's GB/Minn game, Fox in Washington, DC was covering the moment of silence for Reggie White. In the middle of the moment of silence, Fox cut to a commercial for Levitra or something. Was that done everywhere? Was this Fox's commentary on a moment of silence for White, or what happened?

No, his point was that the defense did not play that well either, and contributed to the team's defeat. This is in contrast to those who feel the D played great, and Bledsoe was to blame for everything...CD

But the defense has not been on the field an undue amount when the Steelers got the ball with 11:15 left in the fourth quarter. From then on, the Steelers time of possession v. Buffalo was about 10 minutes to 1, or a nine minute differential. Since the game differential was about 10 minutes total, it means that at the 11:15 mark, Pittsburgh had possessed the ball for about 25 minutes on offense, while the Bills had 24 minutes. Hardly an argument that the Bills defense collapsed at the 11:15 mark due to fatigue, or am I missing something...CD

I understand how you feel, but you are not running the team and it will not happen that way...CD

While everyone can rant and rave about dumping Bledsoe, it seems pretty clear cut how the QB situation will work out. First, Bledsoe is a classy vet and the Bills are a classy organization. Accordingly, they will not do what a weak organization like Cincinnati did and simply tell Bledsoe to grab some pine while Losman loses winnable games early in 2005. That would be throwing away games and the whole team would be upset because the organization is not doing its best to win now. Remember, guys like Spikes, Milloy, Vincent, Williams(assuming he's back), Fletcher, Adams are at their peak, and perhaps starting downhill shortly. These guys can't be thinking about 2006 or 2007, especially when they just finished up 9-3. Second, notwithstanding fan and media criticism, the team loves Bledsoe. He is their guy. You just yank the job from him, and you will not like what you will see. So, what happens. Either fate will step in or it will follow the Henry/McGahee approach. Coming into 2005, there will be very high expectations for this team. Bledsoe will start. One of three things will happen. One is the team plays well right out of the box, goes 12-4 or something, goes to the playoffs and Losman gets another year to be tutored and get spot duty. Second, Bledsoe could get some injury, like Maddox, and Losman gets the chance to start. If he plays as good or better than Bledsoe, he keeps playing even when Bledsoe gets well. Third, the team stumbles out of the box, and the coaches feel the team needs a spark and starts Losman, say in game 4 or 5. Again, if he sparks the team as McGahee did, he keeps playing. Under either scenario 2 or 3, the vets will not have any animosity towards Losman for getting a job handed to him. And if he plays well, they will love him. The foregoing scenarios are the options(no we are not going to get Kurt Warner or some other washed up vet like Mark Brunell, who everyone wanted a year ago), as it is the way a classy organization like the Bills will do things, and it is the samrt way to go. So you can scream about Bledsoe if it is therapeutic for you, but I am confident this is what will happen...CD

Bingo. If any one of the three units played lights out, we would have won. The real issue is, how far below their best did each unit play. We already knew this team is unlikely to win by Bledsoe and the offense putting the team on its shoulders and winning, it is not that good. What is special about this team is its defense and ST. The offense played slightly below its norm, which is pretty low. The ST was way below its norm, and the defense pretty far below its norm, especially when it could not stop a one dimensional offense from racking up 160 yards of rushing offense. In absolute terms, the defense played the best game, followed by the offense and special teams. But in relative terms-- based on what we've come to need and expect from each unit-- the offense and defense were equally bad, and the special teams horrendous. But I guess some people refuse to accept that.

And as to playing most of the game, when Pitt got the ball with 11:15 remaining, Pitt led the time of possession battle by about 1 minute. And the problem with that was that Pitt was 8/18 on third down conversions, and 1/1 on fourth. That's not good defense...CD

Why are you such an apologist for the defense. They are very good, but they failed at key times yesterday. After the missed FG--and they had been off the field about 15 minutes at that point--rather than stuff Pitts third string QB and RB, they ripped a 60 yard run. They failed in the clutch. Fatigue, that's absurd at that point in time. Defense also failed in Jax game and first NYJ game. That's not to say they aren't really good, they are. But if they want to be considered an elite defense, they need to hold leads and take control late in the game...CD

No one is "pinning" the loss on the defense--it was a team loss. If you think the defense's performance was top-notch, I disagree. Buffalo was winning 17-16 with a quarter to play--no scoring, Bills win. Did the defense give up that 60 yard run than led to Pittsburgh going ahead for good? Thought so. This is a really good defense, but it was average yesterday, especially when all the chips were on the line...CD

It is interesting to see how many people want to pin the loss entirely on Bledsoe. I was at the game and just watched the game on tape, and this was, most assuredly, a team loss. Let's take a look: Coaching-- extremely cautious game plan. On both sides of the ball, very few chances were taken. We played to "not lose," not to win. No downfield passing. Horrible decision to run gadget play with Williams substituting for a dinged McGahee. Going for the missed FG instead of a first down--although not clearly wrong--certainly did not show a go for the jugular attitude. Understandable errors and meekness from a rookie staff--hopefully a tough lesson learned. Special teams--worse game of the year. Fumble on first punt of the game set up Pittsburgh 3-0. 4 penalties on returns. Moorman's punting was horrible, as were Lindell's kickoffs(especially when compared to Pitt, who kiced off into the endzone consistently). And of course, the 28 yard field goal miss. Defense-- no answer for Pittsburgh's running game. Allowed 60 yard run right after missed FG. Allowed a 9 minute all run drive with 11:30 left in the game for a FG. The line was simply getting blown off the ball by a very physical Pittsburgh O-line. Offense-- four dropped passes, Evans did not make a catch until 2 minutes left. Line with injuries did not provide much time to throw or running room. Lack of real TE's hurt. Bledsoe-- not good. Could have had 3-4 picks. Tried to make too much happen by holding ball too long on Pitt. fumble TD(although Reed failed to recognize he was the hot receiver and left Bledsoe in a world of hurt), after Bills had fallen behind. Penalties--12 overall, to go with 3 turnovers. Reed's stupid and totally unnecessary pass interference on Burns' first down at 5 probably prevented the Bills from opening up an 8 point lead with a quarter to go. If Bills fix just a couple of these things, they win. That said, the Bills finished 9-3. They went 3-4 against playoff teams, which is not good enough, but not terrible either. They have two decent QBs--hopefully Losman can come along to the satisfaction of the coaches to start, but until he is Bledsoe has shown he can win games while the kid learns. A little help up front on the O-line, a better third receiver(Reed has to go), and a fully healthy McGahee with a year of experience and it should be a great year next year... CD

Actually, he is not an idiot at all. He picks the Jets and Denver to win in close games. So his prediction is--say--that the chances of the Jets and Denver each winning is 60%. That being the case, multiplying those probabilites together, he believes it is 36% likely that BOTH the Jets and Broncos will win, or that there is a 64% chance the Bills will get the help they need. Myself, I think the Jets have about a 60% chance of winning, and the Broncos 70%. That means there is a 42% chance that both will win, or a 58% chance to get the help they need...CD

The lines are from Las Vegas and/or off-shore. But your math is wrong. Assuming the accuracy of your winning % claim, the Jets have 3/5 of winning, and Denver 4/5. To find the chances of both winning, you multiply 3/5 by 4/5, which yields a 12/25 chance of both teams winning, with a 13/25 chance of one or both teams losing. If you say the Bills have an 80% chance to win, 4/5, multiply that times 13/25, and you get 52/125, or about 41.6%. If you are correct on the straight-up probabilities on these point spreads, then 41.6% would be the probability the Bills will be in the playoffs...CD

The Bills are now a whopping 9 point favorite over Pittsburgh. Similarly, Denver is a 9 point favorite over Indy--which indicates those in the know believe Indy will be resting its players, notwithstanding published reports to the contrary. Rams opened as a 2 point fav over Jets, but the line moved quickly to make the Jets three point favorites at this time... CD

No, that's the line. It will change depending on tonight's game of course. If you'd like to see the lines, go to www.sportsnetwork.com, then go to the NFL page, and then click on odds...CD

No, assuming the Bills win, if each event has 7/10 of happening, the likelihood of both events happening is found by muliplying the two probabilities(assuming they are not interrelated). So here, squaring 7/10ths= 49/100, or 49%. You can change the odds anyway you like, so if you think 80% chance of Denver winning, and 60% chance of NYJ winning, you would get a probability of 12/25 of both events occuring, or 48%. You get the idea. Of course, if you say the Bills have a 50% of winning, then you would halve the probability to 24%.

Buffalo -3.5 Rams -2.5 Colts +3/+7.5-- depending on bookmaker(Sportsbook v. Stardust) If you figure that Denver has a 70% chance of winning, and say the Jets have a 70% chance of winning, the chances of both things happening is only 49%... so if the Bills win, better than 50% chance of getting in, based on these probabilities...CD

If Buffalo wins Sunday, and the Jets lose, Buffalo will be in the playoffs by 4 PM on Sunday. At that point, if Denver beats the Colts, they will be the 5 seed, Buffalo 6 and going to Indy. On the other hand, if the Colts were to defeat Denver, Buffalo would be the 5 seed and go to SD, and the Colts will get the Jets. So in planning for this week's games--even assuming that the Colts may try and "pick" their playoff opponent--they won't know what to do(win or lose), assuming they want to avoid the Bills as is being speculated. So unless they are glued to the TV sets gaming this out right before they take the field in Denver--which I doubt--then the "tank the game" strategy could well backfire if it is intended to draw a weaker opponent than Buffalo ...CD

Bulger is playing, Philly has lost TO and cannot lose McNabb or Westbrook, so the Rams are 3 point favs. I think you'll see a good game out of the Rams tonight...CD

Give it a rest. The Bills have been aided immeasureably the last few weeks by other teams. This past week, everyone was sure JAX was in, then they get clobbered by Houston. Baltimore was beaten twice the past two weeks, KC destroyed Denver last week. The only ways the Bills could be in better shape--given their own miserable start--was if Denver lost to Tennessee, which has about 4 players left. The Bills put themselves in their current situation, no one else. That said, I like our chances. Of the teams we have been trying to catch, Denver and the Jets are the weakest. Would you like to be pulling for Miami to win at Baltimore this week, or Oakland beating JAX?--I don't think so. Denver is falling apart, I don't care about them beating Tennessee. They lost to Oakland at home(another big help for the Bills by the way), were ripped by KC, and barely beat Miami at home. Indy can beat them with their "B-" game, and if the starters play for part of the game, I think Indy's backups can beat Jake Plummer. Would you prefer Cleveland or SF? As to the Jets, they will be ripped in the media all week in NY after yesterday. I have as good an arm as Pennington, and if the Rams can right the ship tonight against Philadelphia--and I think they will given that the oddsmaker has made them 3 point FAVORITES against a 13-1 team--they just might be the greatest show on turf for one more day against the Jets. Of course, the Bills still have to win. And I suppose it is unfair that the Steelers will play Maddox instead of Roethlisberger? Thought not. Bottom line, the Bills are in an extremely fortunate position for a team that was 0-4 and 3-6. Rather than complain about teams throwing games(oh, and remember how Levy would rest players when their opponent needed a win to make the playoffs--it's part of the game to do what is best for your team, not help others who started 0-4) , enjoy this week because it is way more interesting than anybody would have thought on November 20..... CD

Those stats do not include this year. Bledsoe passed Montana Sunday, to move to 7th on the list all-time...CD

Yes, based on a better record against common opponents...

Absolutely, the O-line is much better, but that does not mean it is good. The interior of the line in particular is inconsistent, which is better than before--consistently bad. But the interior line is not strong enough to beat an 8 man front with any consistency.

Good post...CD

I think people are ignoring the weather conditions in evaluating the offense's play over the past two weeks, as well as the game situation. The wet and cold against Cleveland, and the bitter cold and wind against Cincinnati, was hardly condusive to a great passing game. Moreover, the Bills were well ahead in both games, and the objective of the offense primarily was to kill clock, and not to f#@! up. They did that just fine. When the offense needed to shine, and with better weather conditions--as in the Rams and Miami game--they did. In Miami, the D was not good, it was the offense that primarly saved the day. I think Bledsoe is managing the offense well. He has made some huge plays at critical times, e.g., two flea flickers to Evans, and is playing well in a system that emphasizes defense and special teams. They are not winning because of him, but they are winning because he is playing his role well in a team effort. Not to mention, the team likes him alot, and play hard for him...CD

Baltimore, Jax and Denver would all have to lose both their remaining games for the Bills to get in at 9-7. Jets already have 10 wins, so they would beat us, of course...CD