Dr. Who
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Posts posted by Dr. Who
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32 minutes ago, nucci said:
pretty convinced....they could move up or down...that's absolutely brilliant reporting...it's also possible they stay at 6
Damn, you scooped everyone there.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
I don't know how the Bills see him, I'm just saying what my strategy would be. I see a lot of Bills fans and content creators saying we have to come away with an edge rusher by the end of the 2nd round because it's a clear weakness on the team. But the draft class is what it is. People talk themselves into a Marshawn Kneeland because there just aren't many options.
I think a lot of people have the concept of a deep or not deep class backwards. People say WRs are deep, edge rushers aren't, therefore we should take an edge rusher early and wait on WR. That's the wrong mindset. A deep WR class means that at any one of our picks there is likely to be a WR who matches the value of the pick, and the exact inverse for edge rushers. Choosing to take an edge rusher early in this draft means you're probably passing on a better talent just to fill a perceived need. I would rather skip the position entirely than make that mistake and regret it later, like when we stupidly traded up for Cody Ford instead of DK Metcalf.
You're right about so much, but then you want to take Coleman
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3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
The Bills have had him in for a Top 30 visit so they must have some interest in him … so are you saying they view him as a Day 3 option?
I don’t see him lasting that long …and I am suggesting picking Kneeland with their third pick in the third round … which will require some moving around the board considering that pick doesn’t exist yet …whether this is considered a reach or not is opinion at this stage … we will see how the draft and the player subsequently turns out …Hoping that Miller improves concerns me as a strategy …he is 35 and looked terrible last year … he is not even close to being 50 percent of his pre injury level ,,,.but again as I have mentioned … I’m sure they have better information on his progress
If there is any doubt about Miller ,,, they need a better strategy then picking a leftover on Day 3..Yeah, I'd be okay taking him with a third if we manage to manufacture one.
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7 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:
PFN, trade up and back and ...
19.
Brian Thomas Jr.WR LSU
44.
Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia
52.
Graham BartonOC Duke
60.
Braden FiskeDT Florida State
112.
Jaden HicksS Washington State
148.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
160.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
200.
Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn
229.
Nathan ThomasOT Louisiana
Barton is a first rounder. I doubt Theo Johnson lasts that long. The model is off. It's a home run draft, though.
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57 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
Allen is the guy I like. In 2022 and 2023 Allen was considered the centerpiece of Wisconsin's offense. He was heralded as the next Wisconsin stud running back. Bigger more powerful runner but plenty of athleticism. When the Badgers switched to the spread this year it took them awhile to get the offense going. So a little more underrated than what we likely would have seen if they didn't go thru such a huge offensive transition.
Schrader is also hard not to like. Strikes me a process guy thru his bones. He was durable for Mizzo. Great pass catcher as well. I watched his entire performance vs the Volunteers and he stole the show. Impressive what he was able to do against the SEC.
Lots of folks like Allen. No way he lasts till the fifth round, and he could easily go day 2.
I like Kendall Milton. He runs upright, which isn't the best, but he's a big, tough back. He'd be an excellent day 3 RB.
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20 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
If mock drafts and current adp is to be believed, i still believe Burton is a first round talent that can be had in the 2nd round. He passes the eye test and has the speed, burst, size, body control, hands you are looking for in a top end wr. He played in the SEC and regularly separated from top end dbs but played with a qb that was limited as a passer. If it were not for “character concerns”, Burton goes in the back end of round 1. The Bills will have to figure out if this guy is a head case or if the concerns have been over exaggerated. If they think he can fit in with the locker room, then I would jump at the chance of getting Burton in the second all day long.
Not giving away big time assets to move up in first would allow the Bills to maneuver the board in the second and third and maybe grab a second wr like Polk, Leggett, Persall etc to pair with Burton. There are other positional players like DT Fiske that I would love to see the Bills draft but if they traded up for a wr in the first we are looking at just having day 3 picks left this year.
I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.
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7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
Won’t need to trade up for him imoDo you think he falls outside of round one because of medical concerns?
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49 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
I dunno. Trading up into the top ten for one of the big three might cost a whole lot more than Aiyuk who might only cost next years #2 and later picks. Trading into the top ten this year would probably cost this year #1 & #2 AND picks next year...and nothing in the draft is a sure thing.
Yes, I understand the risk. Aiyuk will cost a lot in terms of how much you have to pay him, and the amount of cap space that will take. The fella wants to get paid. The value of hitting on a top shelf WR on a rookie contract is similar to, but not as great, as hitting on a franchise QB on a rookie contract. You can then take advantage by redistributing the cap space dollars elsewhere. And, as I indicated, I think the top 3 this year are unlikely to bust, though there is indeed that chance. The question is if taking that risk is countered by the potential cap savings.
I, personally, would take that risk over having to pay Aiyuk, though you are correct that you are paying for a known quantity as an NFL receiver.
My favorite gamble would be to trade up from #60 using a 2025 second, and whatever other draft capital necessary, to end up with McConkey and either Mitchell or Thomas. That would also entail risk, and is perhaps unlikely. Regardless, that's my preference. If they end up going the Aiyuk route, it will seem to me trading out Diggs for Aiyuk and no cap savings, but he is a solid WR and it could work out well.
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1 minute ago, ScorpionZero said:
ESPN
Round 1, Pick 28
Adonai Mitchell
Texas
Round 2, Pick 60
Troy Franklin
Oregon
Round 4, Pick 128
Beau Brade
Maryland
Round 4, Pick 133
Tip Reiman
Illinois
Round 5, Pick 144
Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
Round 5, Pick 160
Myles Cole
Texas Tech
Round 5, Pick 163
Tyler Davis
Clemson
Round 6, Pick 200
Kitan Oladapo
Oregon State
Round 6, Pick 204
Jalyx Hunt
Houston Christian
Round 7, Pick 248
Andrew Raym
Oklahoma
I picture you as a bear that comes out of hibernation to mock draft, and then grabs a beer and goes back to sleep after the draft is over. I like this draft, btw, but I'd rather trade up using a 2025 second to go grab McConkey to go along with Mitchell.
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7 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
As I posted in a different thread. If Buffalo is going to use up some draft picks for a trade...I'd rather see them trade for SF WR Brandon Aiyuk over some rookie who may or may not ever become the #1 WR that Aiyuk already is.
The downside to that is you are going to pay out a big contract. If you hit on a rookie, you can use that money elsewhere in constructing a roster. I think the top 3 have pretty high floors, along with high ceilings. I'd rather risk it, if it is the choice you offer. The other option of staying at #28 or a smaller trade up or back has its own calculations.
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Traded our 2025 second to move up in the second. Detroit moved up one and gifted #98. That was nice of them.
29.
Adonai MitchellWR Texas
40.
Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia
98.
T'Vondre SweatDT Texas
128.
Tykee SmithS Georgia
133.
Jaylen WrightRB Tennessee
144.
Zak ZinterOG Michigan
160.
Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss
200.
Brevyn Spann-FordTE Minnesota
204.
Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn
248.
Frank CrumOT Wyoming
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6 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
We don't need a double dip. We need to have one good WR then focus on defense. If we can't get to Burrow or Mahomes and cover on the back end,it won't matter. Take another guy in the 4th or 5th to bring to camp.
If I can get Mitchell and McConkey, I'm going to do it. If they trade up for one of the top 3, then that will be it for an early WR. I understand that folks have other strategies. That's mine.
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39 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:
Devonshire is a county in the UK known for its dairy products. Hard pass.
Interesting that in this topic, no one has broached trading one of next year's 2nd rounders for a 3rd rounder this year.
I think the Bills will do well to stand pat at #28 but I'm pretty sure everyone will regret not having a 3rd rounder this year... thus trading one of next year's 2nd rounders.
Assuming a 3rd rounder this year nets us a starter, I think it's more important to have that pick this year than next year because of the Josh Allen Window.
Well, that is a real consideration. My main interest at the top of the draft is WR. For me, a second is probably involved in a big trade up or staying at #28 and moving up from #60 to the early second to double dip at receiver. If the right players are there, i would do it. I like the big 3 and Thomas as trade up in the first candidates. Mitchell and McConkey are next on my list.
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57 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:
I really enjoyed this breakdown (partly because I pretty much agree with their analyses.) The last twenty minutes or so when they are talking about their top 6 are absolutely worth a listen. If Beane somehow pulled off grabbing Ladd McConkey and one of Mitchell or Thomas, it would be a home run draft. Folks who don't think McConkey is an X should pay attention to what they say here.
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1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Polk is a guy that really intrigues me.
He's the quiet fella everyone is forgetting. Except @NewEra
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1 minute ago, DJB said:
You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28?
I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players .
I'll add to this request: how do you answer the concern that Coleman would likely have to get a lot of snaps as a big slot to be productive? I don't want to add a player that largely needs Kincaid to be off the field for the best chance of success.
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10 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Great post. The more I think about it, beane saw Hill terrorize us for a few years. Hill is only 195, Worthy 165. So maybe he feels worthy can put on a few pounds and be fine?
I dunno, 30 lbs seems significant to me. I think Worthy is a talent. I'm worried about his size. If you get Worthy, you better find a way to get Legette, too, imo. (There are others, like Walker and Polk, that one could consider.)
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48 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:
Ahh now you’re talking. The essence of every football team is the Big Nasties. They are the only true brotherhood room in the building.
My limited football experience is from the view of quarterback, wr, cb, and fs. I would be thrilled if the Bills hired Joe Thomas to scout, and integrate his evaluations into the OBD final OLine rankings and final big board.
It’s all a mystery to me, but it shouldn’t be to a 1st ballot Hall of Famer that played on bad teams, with bad players, and bad coaches. When I watch film, I can’t tell how good the fat guys are because they slow down to attack lesser talented defenders. And then there’s the whole unpredictable bust factor.
But I’d think centers in general are more likely to take the game seriously than the other positions. So there’s that.
I’m all for acquiring a center that becomes Josh’s dude for the next ten years. That role should be important to JA17.
Jackson Johnson Jack Powers certainly looks the part and if the evaluators like him I’m all for it. Plus he wins the 2024 Draft name contest. Can’t take Kool Aid that seriously.
What about Payton Wilson? We ALWAYS GET HURT AT LINEBACKER, and I’ll just leave it at that. Your thoughts?
Payton Wilson is a big, impressive LB. If you just look at the highlights, you want him on your team. And I do like him, though we don't have the luxury of taking a LB that early. And then the negatives on him are several. He's an older player. He turns 24 on draft day, and has a long injury history. So in that sense, it's a little sketchy as an answer to our hurt linebacker problem. Also, apparently he has trouble shedding blocks, so if he doesn't beat the oline or te to the runner, he might disappear from the play. If I am taking a chance on a defensive player with injury concerns, it's going to be Latu.
What about Storm Duck? He's probably a ufa or seventh rounder. I just wanted to type Storm Duck.
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24 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
I thought Diggs was an elite weapon for Allen. Davis was serviceable and definitely in your ‘good enough’ description. Having 1 elite receiver was obviously not enough so I’m with you regarding accumulating more elite receiving talent. I’m hoping they’d do it through the draft rather than spending big money like they did with Diggs. Betting big in free agency is what got them in this current cap bind.My hope is they hit on a couple of receivers this year along with Kincaid’s development. Then the following year we might get your vision of an offensive juggernaut that could make hay for a title. This upcoming season is pivotal for the next step forward imo.
Yes, I agree.
Diggs was an elite weapon, though not so much last year. I also concur about cap management. I am not for trading for a high-priced veteran. Depending on what happens in the draft, I could see them bringing in a mid-level veteran to fill out the room.
Obviously, Beane traded the Justin Jefferson pick for Diggs. The next best receivers during Allen's tenure are arguably Brown for one year, and Cole Beasley. Davis had that explosive game against KC, and some decent games interspersed with lots of dropped balls, nagging injury, and tolerable WR2 play. It's not a great collection, though the Kincaid selection is a nice start at adding offensive weapons with higher ceilings.
It is a pivotal draft. Getting WR right could really set the team up well going forward. I don't want to think about the ramifications of getting it wrong. Let's just get it right.
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1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:
Is Mitchell the loud mouth? On the field, what’s not to like. Big, fast, strong.
So my bs take is that his feet are slow at the line of scrimmage. Hands might be slow too. I saw a lot of in-stride running on his YouTube highlight vid. …Wondering why he got caught on one of those against the maroon team…🤔
Here’s my even more awful assumption.. maybe he runs faster without pads… some guys are most definitely like that. On the vid, I didn’t really see speed+quickness,, just kind of a nice strider’s glide. I wonder how quickly he can locate the ball, break down and get his hands up for a contested catch, on like a 40yd sideline something. I believe Josh needs a guy that can do that. It’s a throw he wants to make, and I think he’s good at it, but his WR haven’t been good at it.
You know who can do that..??😎 Top three WRs🤗
Anyways.. I would rather have Worthy plus that value of drafting him in R2, than Michell at 28. Two totally different styles.
How about Worthy-???
I'm going to cheat and say I like Mitchell. I think he does a lot of things well. There may be whispers about character issues. I don't know, really, but on the field, the main criticism is that he coasts when the ball isn't coming to him. Folks compare him to the Steelers' WR, Pickens. I don't know if that is overblown or not, but I do know that Mitchell has a habit of making clutch plays in big games, and that is something we could surely use.
Worthy is a fast feather. He's more than a speed fella, though. He has a more developed route tree, and he could be a real weapon. I still worry about his size, and a lot of very fast WRs for whatever reason don't translate into NFL success. If you take him, unless Shorter turns out well, a big X who can block and catch is still a need in the WR room, so Worthy by himself is not enough.
How about Jackson Powers-Johnson?
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4 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:
I have a spot for the Vikes as fellow 4x sb losers, but I kind like them less knowing this
So, I am pretty old. When I was a kid, the Bills were not making the playoffs. For idiosyncratic reasons, I adopted the Vikings as a team to root for. I liked Fran Tarkenton. He was nicknamed "the scrambler," and back then his leaving the pocket and buying time by running was a novel idea. So, naturally, I feel the football gods are especially spiteful. Florio has definitely put a taint on my nostalgia, but I too still have a soft spot for them.
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1 hour ago, 90sBills said:
Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.
Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract.
Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching.
But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder.
Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach.
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5 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:
I can’t believe the amount of people who believe a mediocre receiving corps is alright. I’ll be extremely disappointed if we don’t land a big time receiver in this draft. It’s a disservice not to find that for Allen. Manning had elite wideouts during his career, and most other greats as well. Brady is the freak exception, but we’re also talking about a dude who was elite into his 40’s. Nothing about Tom Brady will ever be the norm.
I’m also not about to compare anything to Matt Ryan either. Ryan had a few good seasons, but he’s a far cry from Josh Allen. Mahomes also has an elite receiver, and his name is Travis Kelce, Kelce is ELITE. The guy is absolutely unstoppable, and a hall of fame player. Mahomes has “no elite receiver” is a ridiculous narrative with Kelce. Kincaid is very good, but he’ll never be close to Kelce imo. We need more because we don’t have Kelce on this roster. A failure to draft a first round wideout would result in an ugly 2024 season.
I agree with all of this, except I think Kincaid can be really good. I don't know how close to Kelce, but I'm not ready to say he can't be elite. You can't count on that happening, however, and he may plateau at a lower level of achievement. Doesn't ultimately affect the overall truth that they still need to give Josh Allen much better weapons. Shakir and Samuel are solid pieces, but they are not A-level weapons.
And as I've tried to point out to the D crowd -- if you have a truly potent offense, not just statistically, but one that can terrorize the opposition, you make the other teams' offense reactive, feeling that they have to match you after every drive or risk falling into the abyss. And most teams won't have the fire power to keep up. That is a big edge to your own D, because panic on the other side causes mistakes and also makes the playbook narrow to more predictable limits.
If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise?
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27 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
imagine if we add a moss.Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.?
No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade.
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NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Broncos WR Courtland Sutton did not report for voluntary OTAs
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That's my preference, but it implicitly should stipulate two WRs early in the draft. If Beane is only getting one and a day 3 lottery ticket, he needs to add a veteran.