Dr. Who
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Posts posted by Dr. Who
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11 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
Agreed. I think Legette may be the guy, huge upside but sizable downside.
I love Ladd but he admittedly does have a limited ceiling, I think. Still if Ladd ends up being a “faster/quicker” Cole Beasley, nobody is going to complain about a guy with 90 catches, 1100 yards and 8 tds a year.
my best draft idea is Ladd at 28 and trade 60 and a 2nd in 2015 for the low 40s to grab Legette.the way Josh was talking about Legette (“the dude has the best southern drawl”) leads me to believe he’s someone they’re considering
Mitchell’s workout numbers are as impressive as any wr in the draft, given his size, but his onfield production is mediocre. The Bills talk about YAC a lot and he’s absolutely terrible at YAC. Is this something that can improve possibly with a different use by the Bills? Not sure, but, it is a reason why I think he’s not being targeted by the Bills
McConkey and Legette is my favored combo pick. I was pushing for Kincaid last year, so if it happens, I'm going to maybe dance in the street. (I live on a rural farm, so only the cows, barn cats, and miniature horses will likely wonder what the damn fool is up to.) They are both late first/early second candidates. Your plan for taking McConkey at 28 and Legette in a trade up is also mine.
Some folks appear to think wanting two WRs this early makes one a "knucklehead." I don't think they have properly assessed where our WR room is right now. If they don't grab 2 early, I suspect a trade for a veteran may happen.
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44 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
https://wapo.st/3W9A7BM (Gift article):
’The proximity of the Giants’ selection (sixth overall) to Arizona’s fourth pick has many giving New York the edge in completing that trade.
“They aren’t playing with Daniel Jones, I can tell you that much,” a second GM said of the Giants’ incumbent. “I hear it’s McCarthy or Maye” for New York.’
Makes too much sense. If you are counting on Jones to save your jobs, might as well put your houses on the market now.
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28 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I agree with your fear completely, as I think I've laid out elsewhere.
I think McDermott's core defensive philosophy is to have a whole of "selfless guys" that work together and are far greater than the sum of the parts. I think that has shown itself very able to earn regular season wins and to be substitution-tolerant at many positions, but it has fallen short against the best teams playing at a frenzied level in the playoffs. In acquiring Von Miller and re-upping Tre White as well as in drafting Elam (to presumably upgrade from a "White plus a JAG" 2ndary), Beane and McDermott themselves acknowledged "we need a few stars". The problem is, they couldn't forsee both Miller and White derailed by injury (White repeatedly).
So we need to set ourselves up to move on and reload, and part of that is shedding cap this season. [I think the jury is still out on Elam, but obviously for his first 2 years that didn't work out, either.]
On offense, we need IMO 2 guys. Whether that's someone we draft or a late FA signing, or whether Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook take steps, can't tell you.
I agree with you that we could still contend for a Super Bowl in 2024, but that will depend upon a few key points. One of them is getting a functional pass rush from somewhere, whether that's Miller returning to form, Rousseau and Epenesa stepping up, or a draft/FA acquisition. Another, I think, is whether Josh Allen successfully transitions from being the guy who directed 42% of his throws to Diggs and Davis (241 out of 579 including spikes and throw aways), to being the guy who takes the choice with the higher % of success just a bit more often. He alluded to that at the end of his presser and mentioned "conversation with other QB".
It was noted that prior to 2020 when Josh took a big step to overhaul his throwing motion, he was said to have dug into several QB who had improved their throwing motion during their careers, and picked them clean about what he needed to do to improve in the course of a couple dinners. So I think that "conversation with other QB" is worth noting, and may be worth noting that Tom Brady is one of the QB Josh has spent some off season time with. While Brady has been public in loving Josh and wanting to see him win a SB, I'm certain he would not hold back if they spoke privately. If Josh has decided to dedicate himself to becoming a better "field general' and mental student of the game in the same way he dedicated himself to becoming a better rotational thrower of the football with proper hip-shoulder-arm sequencing, expect great things.
Time Will Tell, but no longer having Diggs there clamoring for the HIM share of the targets may help.
We normally agree a great deal, and that is the case here as well. All you can do is hope about Elam. He is sunk cost. The problem there, it has seemed to me, is scheme fit. Then there were injuries, and I think he lost his confidence. He seemed to have trouble often even where his strengths lie. Anyway, I'm not giving up on the fella. I still believe he has traits that could lead to a successful career -- I just hope it is with us if it happens.
I have been pushing for 2 WRs in the top 40, because all the players I like are probably gone by the mid-second round. That would entail at least the cost of one of our 2025 seconds. For the right fellas, it's worth it. Maybe this is the last time I will indicate my reasoning, as it will be tedious to keep hearing me say it, but I think McConkey can take many of Diggs' snaps. He's much more an outside receiver than folks credit, though not a big X type, obviously. He's the best route runner in the class, and faster and more athletic than a lot of folks think. I think he's a volume receiver year one. Then I'd like to pair him with that big boundary receiver. If you could do it, you'd trade up for Thomas, but then you're probably not getting McConkey. I think Mitchell and Legette are possible early second, and Legette in particular is someone I would target in a trade up.
However it plays out, I concur that Beane needs to add two WRs with potential to be difference makers in the WR room. Legette will take more time, but I think he has a reasonably high ceiling, and brings a versatile skill set. He could be DK Metcalf intimidating to tackle.
I'm not sanguine about the edge players in the draft. If you draft one early, you are most likely reaching. Verse and Turner aren't falling, and Latu is a medical risk I would not choose above WR. I think it's the worst position group in the draft, and would only take day 3 fliers, unless Beane has already gotten WR help and manufactures another day 2 pick. That would be my preference, in any event. All that means internal growth and maybe a late FA pickup is where I would place most of my modest hopes on that aspect of the DL. If Von does anything, I will be surprised.
I like what you have to say about Josh. I don't believe those who think his character has radically changed. I think he has always been an empathetic, good-natured fellow who is also ultra-competitive. I'm sure there were some personal relationship traumas that distracted him, because athletes are also human beings, and obviously the relationship with Diggs went sideways. There's no point in speculating all the reasons. I believe that Josh will now be a more dominant figure. He will be the veteran, elite franchise qb with younger WRs, even if they end up bringing in a veteran post-draft.
It makes sense to me that he would ask a lot of questions and listen attentively to Tom Brady. That cerebral, analytic approach is something that Josh can improve upon, and I think he has the intelligence and desire to do so. I don't think he is complacently aware that Mahomes has three rings and he has none. I don't think he is just happily playing golf and hanging out with his Hollywood girlfriend with no passion for adding to his talent and winning. It's so very easy for critics to cast aspersions that cost them nothing, and hard to achieve difficult things.
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Expensive trade up to grab pick #14. Just stayed and waited for the rest of the draft at remaining picks. Doubt #60 is there, but I'd love to start the draft out this way.
14.
Rome OdunzeWR Washington
60.
Xavier LegetteWR South Carolina
133.
Tykee SmithS Georgia
144.
Jordan JeffersonDT LSU
160.
Layden RobinsonOG Texas A&M
163.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
200.
Brennan JacksonEDGE Washington State
204.
Tip ReimanTE Illinois
248.
Carter BradleyQB South Alabama
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3 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:
MDD I expect everyone to flip out about this but it is what it is.
I don't know how you managed both #5 and #31. Assuming one could actually do that, I'd prefer McConkey if he was on the board at 31, especially since you ended up with Wilson at 133. (I know you couldn't know that ahead of time.) We went from not enough big WRs to three plus Shorter. I think McConkey brings a dimension we could use, and balances well with MHJ or Mitchell. Wilson is worth a shot at that point in the draft, though lack of S help or DT is not so great. You probably should have went for a S at 133 if a decent one was available.
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1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:
I say this from time to time: My perspective about the Bills is I listen to Beane and McDermott, I watch what they do, and then I try to understand what that tells me about how they're thinking about the game. To the extent I think I figure it out, I then think about whether it makes sense - not whether it's right or wrong, just whether it makes sense. If it makes sense to me, then I'm happy and I wait for the games with an understanding of what it will look like if it works. If it doesn't make sense, than I'm anxious and I'm prepared for mediocre results.
I will readily admit that since McBeane arrived, it's pretty much all made sense to me. I think they are executing at a very level a methodology and plans to build a continuously successful team that wins Super Bowls. I think that time is coming.
So, I hope you're right. My fear, I guess, is that they have an excellent formula for winning in the regular season, but it falls short in the post-season. I know they were bedeviled with injury last year, and still came close. A number of folks have opined that they need more elite playmakers on both sides of the ball. It doesn't have to be an enormous amount, but one more on each side of the ball would help a lot.
A player like Kincaid or Cook might grow into that player. When Milano is healthy, he's borderline that player.
You can find that player in the draft without trading up into the top 10. Anyway, I'm putting some markers down on Thomas, McConkey, and Legette. Those are the WRs I like best outside the top 3, and I'd be happy with one or two of them. There are other positions that need addressing, and I'm sure Beane has multiple strategies based on how the draft plays out.
I still expect to be a Super Bowl contender next year. I do not see it as an inevitable down year, though it is a reset of sorts with all the veteran turnover.
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1 minute ago, ToGoGo said:
He will probably cost almost as much as MHJ in trade and will be extremely expensive vs a limited contract for a top draft pick.
Of course you’re paying for the certainty that this player is for real in the NFL.
The silver lining of taking the big cap hit on Diggs this year is resetting the economic structure of the roster. That is predicated on replacing him with WR talent on a rookie contract.
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9 minutes ago, Beast said:
OK, don’t roast me for this question but it has been one I’ve been thinking about since I started hearing about Brian Thomas Jr.
Didn’t he benefit from having Malik Nabers on the field at the same time? If I’m a DC, I’m more concerned about Nabers than Thomas. Thomas will go from facing the second best cover guy on a college football team to facing the best on an NFL team. Can he handle that?
Am I over reacting being concerned about that?
I think you're overreacting, and you could pose the question, or situate it differently. Thomas' combination of size, speed, and athleticism are not a mirage. Right now, with a lot of room to grow in terms of developing a route tree, he brings an immediate and consistent vertical threat that is exactly the piece our WR room most needs. And then I would say because of Nabers, he wasn't asked to do more. There is every reason to think he can expand, and become a true WR1. My bottom line is he already has a pretty high floor and definitely has a higher ceiling than most. You go get him if you can, imo.
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Just now, Bag of Milk said:
Not high on Justin Jefferson?
What's not to like about the best WR in the NFL, who is only 24 and wins on every level of the field?
The only real negative is you can't get him on a rookie contract, and it would cost high draft picks to secure him. (Those are pretty significant, however.)
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1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:
I love McConkey, worry about injury at his size, but I could be pretty happy if he is the pick - but I don’t think he solves the need for a deep target, in spite of his 4.39 40. He and maybe Legette, now we’re cooking, but that’ll cost to pull off.
Yeah, I agree with that. For me, McConkey is a top 5 or 6 WR in this draft. I think you need someone that plays his "role," though the precise skill sets will differ. So, maybe Pearsall or Franklin as alternative. Then you still need that big deep threat (I don't think Franklin checks the box for both. Maybe some do.)
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12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
The thing about being a dinosaur is, well, dinosaurs are dead. They lost the Darwinian wars. Football evolves faster than the species do. The game keeps changing. Nobody is looking for Bronco Nagurski any more, because the game has moved on. Well, the Chiefs letting Tyreek Hill go was a pretty clear sign that the game, for now, anyway, has moved on from the big deep threat. People talk about getting Metcalf. Metcalf is a dinosaur. (Hill isn't, because he's always been useful in the short game, too.)
It seems to me that when you have four of the acknowledged great offensive minds in the game (Reid, Shanahan, McVay, and LaFLeur) all playing the game, successfully, without a classic #1 guy, yes, you might be a dinosaur.
Let me back off, just a bit. I don't know. I don't know how to build a successful NFL offense. I don't know what skills it takes, and which players are the right fit. I just watch and try to understand what teams are doing, and then I try to draw conclusions about it. What I hear from the commentators is that all the defenses are playing one- and two-high safeties to take the deep ball away, and what I see is the best offenses attacking with waves of multi-talented skill players, all orchestrated by great QBs who can throw and who can manage the offense. So, when I hear Beane say he doesn't necessarily need the classic #1, it makes sense to me.
So, it seems to me that teams may be playing that one-and two-high safety defense because they could potentially be threatened by a deep threat. If that disappears enough from the arsenal of weapons and strategic tactics of OCs, the defense will adapt to whatever offense is dominant.
I don't know either, precisely, where the game is evolving, but I can only repeat my prejudice that having something akin to a traditional WR1 helps the entire WR room. Yet if one draws back from that, it's still largely a matter of semantics, imo, because I still don't think trying the "new" approach means you can dismiss the advantages of having better players at the WR position. I don't think it means having solid pass catchers with more modest ability is sufficient.
Let's grant provisionally that the current offenses are now going to emphasize moving pieces, those "multi-skilled" players you talk about, who are they? Does it mean getting MHJ or Nabers or Odunze is less important, or does it mean that their skills will be plugged into the new formula, and the superior talent plays out differently in terms of tactics, but recurs in terms of the better WRs still giving an edge to the team that has them? Maybe somehow this will result in the WR position being devalued somewhat akin to what has happened to RB. I am skeptical, but maybe so.
Regardless, Beane may see Kincaid as emerging as a significant threat. That's possible, and it wouldn't shock me. I advocated for drafting him last year with that hope. I'll be disappointed if Beane is content to go with a late round 2 WR to be the main piece in filling the WR room. I think it would be a big mistake. I've already written numerous posts on the fellas I think he should go get. Whatever happens, I'll root for Beane to be right and for the Bills to flourish.
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7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
& LAC would likely have both Vikings 1stsI can see Harbaugh doing it. Herbert puts up stats, hasn’t led the team anywhere
Is he going to draft McCarthy? That would be kinda crazy.
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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea Kneeland and Roman Wilson. That would not please me. Not at all.
All this time I've been worried McD was going to insist on Cooper Dejean or Chop Robinson, and I should have been looking over my shoulder for Kneeland.
That would really be dumb overdrafting for need, and then Roman Wilson is not anywhere near my top 7 or 8 WR choices. I wouldn't take him, actually.
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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Anything is possible, but his cap hit is 24M this year. If they trade him, it’s 36M
Maybe I misinterpreted, but I think he means Legette reminds him of Metcalf, and we should trade up from 60 to get him.
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9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Right, yes.
Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team.
Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety.
It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.
I think there are other needs, but I would sacrifice some to get the WRs early.
DE, DT, CB, S, OL, RB2, lots of places I would add if given sufficient resources.
I do think it is a terrible year at edge and mediocre at S. WR (first two rounds, especially), OL, and CB are pretty deep.
There are some decent mid-round DT depth if you have to wait on that.
1 minute ago, Goin Breakdown said:WR
another need in 3
Wr in 4th
if the Bills stay put
Right now, we have a second round pick at #60 and no third.
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18 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:
Going all in on the trade up (2 1's and 2 2's) for Odunze. Happy with the depth as well.
I have some similar players, some taken with the exact same pick (the last two). This is a different usage of the 2025 2s. I used one along with pick 133 to move up for Thomas. The other second was used to move up from 60 for McConkey. Outside of the top 3, those are my favorite receivers in the draft.
22.
Brian Thomas Jr.WR LSU
40.
Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia
128.
Audric EstimeRB Notre Dame
144.
Tykee SmithS Georgia
160.
Jordan JeffersonDT LSU
163.
Beaux LimmerOC Arkansas
200.
Khristian BoydDT Nothern Iowa
204.
Tip ReimanTE Illinois
248.
Gabriel MurphyEDGE UCLA
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3 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:
It might be cost prohibitive. Without invoking futures what the charts indicate is that something like #20 + #98 from PIT for #28 + #60 from BUF is close in value.
I'd be fine with Beane adopting whatever plan the Packers seem to be using for a productive WR assemply line where the next "Who the hell is that guy?" plugs in for 100 yards and a TD or 2.
That is a popular strategy of late. I am not as confident in the Green Bay model. I'd still rather get a WR1. If that makes me a dinosaur, so be it. Anyway, I'm not necessarily arguing you have to trade up for one of the big 3, or even for Thomas, though I'd like it if they got him. I do think they need two WRs early. Folks want to try something else, that's fine. I'm just stating my preference. I like McConkey. I think he can be the next Diggs. He's not Diggs. He won't have the exact vertical game, but he's silky smooth, snaps off routes, and is not a gritty slot. That is a misnomer. He's faster than many seem to think. And I think he's a volume receiver year one.
Then I'd like Thomas, or Mitchell, or Legette for the second early receiver. Maybe that can't be done. We might not have the picks or the opportunity to make that happen, but I would pursue trying to make it so. I don't know if that is a GB WR room or not, but if you mean wait and take a shot on Rice and McCaffrey, etc., I think that is too low an investment. It might work, but I think you're still more likely to hit with early round picks. (I like Rice and McCaffrey, btw.)
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4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I get this argument from time to time. Of course, you are entitled to your opinion. However, once Beane says what he is thinking, i don't see much point in arguing. I don't care much if you think the Bills need this or that if Beane doesn't agree with you. It is just an academic argument. And i don't have any interest in pretending that i know better than he does.
That is definitely the argument from authority. I like Beane. I'm not against him, but I think you are giving him too much credit. Some Socratic irony is needed, though, of course, it's just my opinion.
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2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Editing to whittle down to the bones of my own concern....it's that "usual take a middle round WR Carolina tradition" Beane cut his GM teeth with, combined with his talk about "no gaping hole" in the WR group. Add that to the WR situation Beane happily brought Allen into in 2018 (which he later admitted was a mistake), and the improvements, but not enough improvements, he made in 2020.... It's not always unreasonable to predict the way a frog (or a GM) jumps, from looking at its past jumping pattern.
I agree with you completely on the playmakers and post-season.Yeah, I'm counting on Beane growing past his proclivities. He may be blind to the situation based on prejudices that have some success behind them, but I find it hard to believe he can't see the problem. And Carolina ran Cam Newton into the ground. That is not a model to follow.
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17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Yes, I believe. I've never found him to be not believable.
This tear's can obsession with wideouts is like last year's with middle linebacker. I don't think the fans understand what the team needs, and Beane does.
If Beane doesn't understand that the team needs to add superior talent at WR, there's a problem. And btw, I was not one of those who was terribly worried about LB last year. Obsession is a pejorative term. Maybe you think everyone who is worried about the talent in the WR room is overwrought and that Beane has shown himself to be shrewd, and so successful that his acumen should be automatically granted the benefit of the doubt. Justin Shorter is not likely the WR equivalent of Bernard. Shakir and Samuel are not true WR2 in my estimation, nor is the collective combination of what is on the roster, plus Knox, Kincaid, and Cook a remedy for the current state of WR talent on the roster. As it stands, it is in the bottom ten of the NFL, imo.
Fortunately, I think Beane knows this. I also think he agrees with those "obsessed fans," but it doesn't behoove him to say so. If you're comfortable thinking that there is no urgency to significantly upgrade, that is your prerogative, but right now, they don't have a big WR to stretch the field, and I don't think they have someone to adequately fill Diggs' role down the line. Nor do I think you can just divvy up the targets to adequate WRs to make up the difference. Having a player of Diggs' quality (when he was playing well) opened up opportunities for other receivers that won't be there if you don't have a top WR to stress the defense.
I think they need two early picks there to develop starting now. I don't think Josh would be happy with the usual take a middle round WR Carolina tradition. Beane has built a consistent winner, but he needs more playmakers. We lose in the post-season because we lack them.
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8 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:
Ehhh not a fan of giving up that many picks for Thomas
128, 144, and a 2025 4th rounder to move up 5 spots? That's not a bad deal, and it doesn't involve any early 2025 picks. I am a fan of that trade. I think Thomas will develop and grow his game, but right now he immediately fills a big vacancy in our WR room for a big X that can get downfield and force the defense to cover more of the field.
2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:Its a late 4th, an early 5th, and a late 4th rounder when we will have a compensatory pick for Gabe Davis next year.
Even with this trade we will still have
1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 7th
Next year:
1st, 2nd,2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th
Yeah, I just got done saying that with less details. I'd love the trade, and if they stay at #60, Bishop is a pick I like there. I like Bishop or Bullard early, Tykee Smith later at S.
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
So let me ask you this: Do you believe him? Because that's really what I'm trying to discuss. It seemed as though you believe him and were advancing arguments as to why you believe that to be true.
If you're just the messenger, then of course, there's no point in arguing, but that seems like a segue to much of the post I responded to. It seemed like something you believed, and were offering arguments to back up your belief.
If Beane's telling the truth, he's a terrible poker player and a damn fool. He's got to have learned something since leaving Carolina. I think he's fibbing.
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17 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
I think you’d have to add to that to move up enough for any of them, unless one of them drops to the 9 range
They really have to drop to 8 or 9 for even a plausible expensive trade up. Everything else is fantasy land or an absurd price that would be crippling.
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1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:
I guess what I was trying to say is they have needs at WR, DE, DT, CB, S and they aren’t going to be able to fills those all this draft (discounting the idea that 5th, 6th and 7th round picks are likely to be real answers). Given that hand, I agree that 1 WR is a must. Especially since I don’t think they will find a decent DE prospect at 60, I would be open to BPA at any of those positions- even if that meant a 2nd WR. I’m not saying that they must take a WR at 60, but I would be open to it if there was a surprise player available.
Slowly we are getting to a point of understanding, at least as to what we each mean. I would prefer to go WR early twice, but if they wait until #60, there is very little chance a WR I would value at that pick will be on the board. So my position is trade up from #60 to get the second WR. If you're not willing or unable to do that, and end up staying at #60, I suspect the best pick will be some other position. I do not want to just take any WR or the best left on the board if that doesn't happen to be one of a small number that I favor, all of which I expect to be selected well before then. In that case, any one of the defensive positions you outline are possible, and I would not discount OL early either for that matter, because the value could be there as well.
1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:Yeah 60 is a bad spot for pretty much all our need positions except safety and although not a huge need IOL.
It may turn out different, but my sense is they either have to move up or move back from that spot.
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Off Topic: Sabres rehire Lindy Ruff as Head Coach
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I love Lindy. I want that jacket. I hope they entice Peca to come back as an assistant.