Luxy312

It was a 20-year deal, but for $68 million. Well worth it.

This in a nutshell. To boot, I question the Bills play calling here. For Spiller to get those big runs, he needs to get carries. Buffalo just seems beyond stubborn in that regard in splitting 50-50 with Fred Jackson. Spiller reminds me of a running back holding the distinction of being tackled more for a loss than any other in the history of the NFL. That team however continued to give that guy carries and when he got free, he did it in big ways. The Bills just don't do that though, and I really don't know why. Oh yeh....the guy that I'm talking about was Barry Sanders.

Running back seems like almost a forgone conclusion to add depth to the team. However, I share concerns with other posters that this kid seems a little too much East West for taste. You get away with that when you have elite speed. This kid doesn't have elite speed.

That we have 2 #2 receivers is debatable. Arguably the greatest Bills receiver in history in Andre Reed didn't manage to put together back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Stevie Johnson did it 3 years in a row before getting hurt last season. Prior to his injury, he was top-10 in productivity at his position. Not attacking you here, but your definition of "#1" is a bit lacking. He's averaged the same type of catch numbers that we've seen from Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston. Sure, he hasn't had Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Wes Welker type numbers, but that doesn't make him a #2. It certainly doesn't support the notion that he's over paid. My original point and the point to this thread is to share what I think their logic is, not to what they SHOULD do. If I'm being perfectly honest, their first and second round picks should be best available player. It just doesn't look to me though that that's how it's shaping up.

To a degree, this type of thinking is a little bit dated. Let's just look at Hughes and Lawson. They combined for 14.0 sacks last season. Do you really think the team needs a full time/every play defensive end opposite Mario? Why not play Hughes, Lawson and Wynn and just rotate them to stay fresh? There was certainly enough productivity at the position to merit that possibility.

Well, I pulled my contract numbers right off Rotoworld. Not sure where your figures come from. 2014 says that his deal is $3.75 million + $1.75 million roster bonus due in March. 2015 says $5.5 million + $250K roster bonus. 2016 says $5.85 million and is the last year of his contract. For Mike Williams, 2014 says $1.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. 2015 says $5.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. You might be thinking about the prorated portion of original signing bonuses for Stevie that would take his cap number up to closer to the $9.0 million you're referencing. Regardless, if he's a casualty next season, then all of the original signing bonus is accelerated into a cap hit. I.e. they can either pay him next season his $5.5 and take a $9.0 million cap hit or they can let him go and take a $9.0 million cap hit anyway. For Williams, it's exactly as I stated. Tampa is eating the signing bonus for him, not the Bills.

Too big of a cap hit? How do you think that? Stevie gets $5.5 million next year and assuming Williams pans out, he would get $6.2 million. That's $11.7 million in total. By comparison, Calvin Johnson all by his lonesome is $12.5 million for 2015. Larry Fitzgerald is $16.0 million. The list goes on and on. Honestly, if Mike Williams works out and Stevie plays like we know he's capable of, this front office will look genius.

Interestingly, I just started another thread about the draft in general and the Bills showing their cards. I could see a trade down in the first and Kouandjio picked later in the first round. Would NOT hurt my feelings at all.

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far: Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense. Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter. Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's. Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans. Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft. Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less. Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense. There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

This is just another of the same old tired "let's give journeyman player X a shot" mentality. Why bring in any journeyman has been and think that somehow they're going to represent an upgrade in the level of competition for Manuel? Freeman has been in the NFL for 5 years now and has regressed in his last 3 seasons. In his limited starts, Thad Lewis has a better completion percentage, QB rating and QBR than Freeman. At the end of the day, Freeman would not be an upgrade at all. As Homey said. You can't shine a turd.

They did inherit the contract, but it's not as big as you think. It's $1.2 million for 2014 plus a $1.0 million roster bonus. For 2015, it's $5.2 million plus a $1.0 million roster bonus. The contract goes through 2018, but NONE of the money is guaranteed. All the bonuses and guaranteed money has already been paid by Tampa Bay. So at the end of the day, there's little risk here. If they pay him $2.2 million this year and he's a bust, he's cut. Done. No future cap hit, and not a big price tag at all for his upside.

I don't think what you're reading into my post is accurate. I'm saying that the Bills pass rush was good enough last year that they don't NEED an updgrade at the cost it would take to make that upgrade. At the end of the day, they're not one DE away from a Superbowl, such that they can ignore all the other positions of need. Do I think Clowney will be good? Sure. I just remember all the same hype about Dareus too and how all of his measurables were better than Suh's were when he came out of school. There was an ESPN special just for him. There are extenuating circumstances of course with Dareus, but the observation stands.

Clowney had a good pro day, but the cost of trading up would be far too great to justify. From everything I've read, it would take this years 1st and 2nd and next years 1st PLUS another pick next year to move to #1. For what? Buffalo was #2 in QB sacks last season. Quarterback pressure is not what's missing from the defense, but linebackers that can stop the run. They were gashed last year on the ground. Everything I'm seeing and reading about Clowney is that although he's the best athlete in the draft, that he's not the best football player. He has motivation issues to boot. That does not sound to me to be worthy of firsts and a second.

The slipping of QB's doesn't really matter to me at all. I would agree 100% and bet that Clowney, Robinson, Matthews, Watkins and Mack are all gone before #9. So what does that leave the Bills? Evans, Lewan and Barr. To me, it really doesn't matter if ALL of the QB's slip, which I would bet they don't. Buffalo will have an interesting conundrum on draft day, because I think there's going to be as many as 4 players of value available to them at #9.

Mine: 1 - OL-Taylor Lewan - Sure, Evans and Ebron will both be tempting. However let's look at what the Bills tried (and failed) to do offensively last year. Running the football with authority will be a priority for this coaching staff, and what better way to start the draft than a plug and play lineman. I don't expect either Matthews or Robinson to fall this far, so thinking that Lewan could be the pick. 2 - TE-Troy Niklas - No question that they need a big physical presence either at WR or at TE. There's essentially 4 guys that fit his mold besides him that could be had in the second round. To boot, this team has drafted 2 WR's last year and another the year before. Don't see them making a switch. 3 - OLB-Christian Kirksey - I would have loved to see them take a higher rated candidate earlier, but think they will be between picks those first 2 rounds. They did sign Rivers and Spikes in free agency already, so they're the penciled in starters to boot. Anything beyond the 3rd round is depth/project players. Don't really need to throw more names at the board. LOL.

I look at it like this. If they can fill a position of need in free agency with a proven player, then they don't have to force a pick of that position on draft day. IMO, getting either Kenny Britt or DeSean Jackson means they're not drafting a QB in the first two rounds. Why would they double up if they have other areas of more significant need like OT or LB? The simple answer is that they wouldn't. Filling holes in free agency greatly simplifies draft strategy.

Evans will be available, but the the question is whether he's the right pick. There are some guys that I can't see falling to Buffalo no matter what. Clowney, Matthews, Robinson, and Watkins should all clearly be gone. There are 4 teams drafting ahead of the Bills that I could see considering QB, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Minnesota. If the big-3 do in fact get picked, that leaves only 1 more player before the Bills pick. Mack, Barr, Gilbert, Lewan, Evans would all still be there. There's no way I would take Evans before Mack and maybe even Barr. I I also have a sneaky suspicion that the Bills could be looking really hard at Lewan. After signing Chris Williams to a deal, their only real remaining need on the offensive line is RT. Lewan is a mauler.

Second round pick at best and perhaps even as late as a third. The lack of effort and resting on his speed in the college game is concerning to me. That will not work at the pro level.

I posted this in another thread and have said it a bunch before. Ebron is not the right pick in the first round. First, he's undersized. He's really in between being a big receiver or being a small tight end. At 250, I don't think he'll be an imposing blocker in the NFL. Niklas fits the mold in every way and will be much much cheaper as a second round pick. I'm really hoping that they don't reach in the first round. There absolutely should be a high value player at a position of need at #9. If that's Mike Evans, so be it. If it's Anthony Barr or an offensive lineman, that doesn't hurt my feelings either.

He'll be a Redskin or a Raider is what it looks like from NFL Network. Guess time will tell. Regardless of where he goes, he's asking for $10.5 million a year. Way too high a price considering other needs for this team.

Great article! It very much hits on the point that the NFL as a whole isn't in a hurry to do anything in terms of moving teams.

I would take Evans all day. He's taller at 6'5 compared to Ebron at 6'4. He's got a better vertical and posted a better average 40 time at the combine (4.53 compared to 4.60). I guess when it comes right down to it, Ebron is not prototypical size for today's tight ends. He's somewhat of a tweener. I would rather them draft the upside of Evans in the first round and then turn around and grab someone like Troy Niklas in the second.

I'll follow your logic tree here and ask for simple feedback. The single largest component of NFL revenue is advertising. Businesses pay billions of dollars per year to buy 30 second and one minute clips during regular season games. During the Superbowl last year, they spent nearly $2 billion. Advertising revenue is shared equally among all of the NFL's 32 teams. At the end of the day, what is advertising revenue tied to the most? Viewership. The more people tuning in to watch games, the better the argument that advertisers should pay more. Cue in the Buffalo Bills that are ranked 13th by the NFL in viewership last year. Viewership that I may remind anyone that's pays attention, drives the #1 source of revenue for NFL team owners. One other point to be made here that people continue to whiff mightily on. L.A. as a city is ready to go and wants a team now. Due to the lease terms signed just over a year ago, the earliest that the Bills could realistically move is 2020. There is no "getting out" of the $400 million penalty that a new owner would have to pay. There would be a long arduous legal battle to try to get out of it. Heck, that might take you to 2020 anyway. Is L.A. really going to wait 6 years for an NFL team? I seriously doubt it. London is certainly interesting and us fans collectively know that the NFL has its eyes open to the possibility of going international. The problem with London is that there is no fan base there. You're talking about essentially starting from scratch and having to work out revenue sharing and advertising in a market where the NFL has zero leverage.

Kony Ealy would be a good pick at the bottom of the first round or the top of the second. Moses would likewise be a good pick at the bottom of the second or early in the third. I like your thinking none the less. So many people suggest "trade up to get XYZ marquee player" in lieu of thinking of value picks. I would love them taking a guy like Moses or even Jack Mewhort in the 3rd round. I'm fairly certain that Ealy is going to be in between picks for the Bills unless they are able to trade down.

Thankfully, the Bills don't wan to add a proven wanna-be gang banger who provides locker room distraction and off the field issues. If they start doing that, they might actually consider just moving the team to L.A. already where those thug types will be right at home.