dave mcbride
-
Posts
23,203 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by dave mcbride
-
-
8 minutes ago, Augie said:
I’m certainly not arguing, but hold your thumb and forefinger 2.25” apart and imagine how that makes such a huge difference. I know it’s a real thing, but when I look at it that way it’s kind of amazing.
I hear you, but the Bills believe in it so much that they apparently won't draft a CB whose arms are shorter than 31".
-
8 minutes ago, 1997WS6 said:
I keep seeing people say that Shakir is a "slot" guy and can't play outside. I just looked up his height/weight, 40 yard dash and 20 yard Shuttle times and compared them to Diggs. He's the same height and weight, but he's faster than Diggs in both the 40 yard dash and 20 yard shuttle. What am I missing?
29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.
-
39 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has.
The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts.
Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out:
-
Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
-
What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR.
- Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb.
-
What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins.
Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group.
- We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team, 2021 we lost because of our defense
- 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather
- 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty.
The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field.
Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones.
To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management.
IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too.
For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA.
I did a deep dive on the non-Patriot winners of the SB going back to 2006. Lots of late first rounders and second rounders across the board, and no one in the top half of the first round except for Mike Evans. One BIG caveat: Atlanta should never have lost to NE in the Feb 2017 SB, and they had a top ten pick at WR (Julio Jones). Also, if Aaron Donald doesn't destroy the crappy o-lineman in front of him, Joe Burrow hits top ten pick Ja'maar Chase for the game winning TD because Ramsey fell down. But I digress.
2006: Indy - Harrison (1st, 18th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th overall)
2008: Pitt - Santonio Holmes (1st round, 25th overall), Hines Ward (3rd round)
2009: New Orleans - Robert Meacham (1st; 27th overall), Devery Henderson (2nd; 50th overall), Colsten (7th rounder)
2010: GB - Jordy Nelson (2nd; 36th overall); Greg Jennings (2nd, 52nd overall), Driver (seventh rounder), James Jones (3rd rounder)
2012: Baltimore - Torrey Smith (2nd, 58th overall) and a bunch of random free agents (e.g., Boldin)
2013: Seattle - Golden Tate (2nd, 60th overall), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Jermaine Kearse (undrafted)
2015: Denver - Demariyus Thomas (1st, 22nd overall), Emmanuel Sanders (free agent)
2017: Philly - Nelson Agholor (1st, 20th overall), Alshon Jeffrey (FA), Torrey Smith (FA)
2019: KC - Tyreek Hill (5th rounder but obviously a top ten talent with off-field issues), Mecole Hardiman (2nd, 56th overall), Demarcus Robinson (4th), Sammy Watkins (FA)
2020: TB: Mike Evans (1st, 8th overall), Godwin (3rd), Scotty Miller (6th), Antonio Brown (FA)
2021: Rams - Van Jefferson (2nd, 50th overall), Cupp (3rd), Woods (FA), OBJ (FA)
2022: KC - Skyy Moore (2nd, 54th overall), Valdes-Scantling (FA), Juju (FA), Justin Watson (FA), Mecole Hardimon (2nd)
2023 KC - Rice (2nd, 55th overall), see 2022 KC (above) for the rest
Anyway, food for thought.
-
2
-
1
-
Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
-
20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:
Or stay at #28 and draft Xavier Legette who will be the best WR in this class.
Why do you argue that? Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr were more productive, put up better numbers at the combine, and come from a program (that Joe Brady made his bones at) that is now basically Wide Receiver U — LSU.
-
1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:
This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!
Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!
Yes, many. Just research it. Watch the NFL stream on twitch. Schrager said it on Friday too. Follow him on X. It's out there... rumours of course at this point but where theres smoke....
I don't have twitch and I don't really watch TV either. A link to an article would be great. I looked it up and found nothing outside of sketchy youtube commentators, but perhaps I was using poor search terms. It's not that I don't believe you, but when people ask for a link and are told to do their own digging, it's a little frustrating.
Having said all of this, it does seem a little implausible to me for the Niners to trade him. Why not keep him for next year on a very reasonable fifth-year option salary? They are a Super Bowl-caliber team and he was by pretty much every measure one of the best receivers in the NFL last season (and a second-team all-pro). A 17.9 ypr average coupled with a 71.4 percent catch percentage rate is pretty staggering.
-
Just now, Dillenger4 said:
I like your enthusiasm, but this post is utter fantasy if anything.
Aiyuk is a real possibility - but that has already been reported at two second round pix which we do have. Moving up in the draft? Not happening the way you have it posted. No chance. As of this morning the Bills are 1 of 2 teams in on the Aiyouk signing. Time will tell if this is real.
if anything, our move up is for Latu if he falls to 18/20. beane will pounce on him.
Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?
-
3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space.
I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3).
My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders.
Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs:
Keon Coleman
Xavier Legette
Troy Franklin
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Worthy
I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position.
Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal.
If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.
I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too:
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
I know enough about the cap to understand why the Bills can’t afford Aiyuk this season, which definitely puts me ahead of you on that subject.
Also I understand that the trade and Aiyuk acquisitions are separate scenarios. Reread what I wrote. I’m not interested in trading up for any WR other than the top 3. Aiyuk is not feasible for cap reasons.
A lot of folks do have Thomas as the third best of the lot. I don't know enough, but from what I've read his talent is such that it's not crazy to view him as just behind Nabers and MHJ. Plus the track record of highly drafted LSU receivers is pretty damn good.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
I think it's very possible for the following, re: trade ups in Rd 1 and Rd2:
Rd1: move up to Min pick, if Thomas still there. give up our 1st, our 4th, and 2 5ths this year, for their 1st and a 7th this yr
Rd2: move up to Was 2nd pick in Rd2, I think 40. Trade our 2nd this year and our 2nd in 2025
Draft Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman. That would be a very nice young WR core
Minnesota's pick won't be there, I don't think. They're pretty obviously bent on trading up to get a QB.
-
1 minute ago, Whkfc said:
Am I crazy or does nobody take Odunze in the mock from CBS. Do they not have proofreaders or is there something I missed.
That's bonkers. Of course Odunze is going in round one.
-
4 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:
Giving up a first round pick for a second round pick is NOT a good idea. You’re giving up a first rounder for a guy who is definitively a second round player. Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round?
I like the rest of it, but you lost me at the trade (also not completely sold on Aiyuk)
There are so many good receivers in this draft that it's likely a guy who may well have been a first rounder in other years (McConkey, who is really good and a great athlete) falls to the second. It's not about the number assigned to the round of the pick; it's about the talent level of the player. I think his point is a) take advantage of a great WR draft NOW and b) get Allen his elite skill players sooner rather than later.
Aiyuk is really good, as evidenced by finishing #2 in yards per target last season.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, drummernut74 said:
Everything is cool except trading 2025 1st to get into the 2nd. Totally illogical when we are going to have to start replenishing on D
We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that.
-
7
-
-
In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:
"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.
What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.
Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024
Targets Yards Yards/Target
Kincaid 110 800 7.3
Shakir 80 800 10
Samuel 90 750 8.3
All RBs 80 650 8.1
That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2
For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.
It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"
-
17
-
1
-
2
-
5
-
-
4 hours ago, Big Turk said:
Until you run the ball right at him like the Bills did and then he is exposed.
My strong recollection from the postgame analyses of that game is that the Bills ran away from Parsons all game, i.e., identifying which side he was on pre-snap and then going in the other direction. I recall Jim Kubiak breaking it down in the BN, so if my memory isn’t faulty what you’re saying here is completely wrong.
-
2
-
-
8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
I posted this in another thread. I think it's worth hearing again. Here it is:
Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?
All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.
We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.
For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years: Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.
That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB. GMs tend to get carried away by their surety in their own abilities. And that's fools gold. Very very very few are genuine sure things. That's why Massey and Thaler and all of their inheritors say what they say. The data says tradeups that big are desperate, not to be made except for a franchise QB, as drafting a possible franchise QB is worth the prospect of a possible catastrophic failure, because you pretty much can't win without one.
Um, Mike Williams, when healthy (which is most of the time), has been very good. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi07.htm
-
2 hours ago, Logic said:
For those who don't want to pay the totally-worth-it $1.99 per month to subscribe to the Athletic (can you even get a pack of gum for that any more?), here's Joe Buscaglia's latest 7 round Bills mock draft. I gotta say, if this happened, I might cry tears of joy.
https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/
TRADE!
Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st
The pick at No. 7: Bills – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
I continue to believe that anything, including a move like this one on draft day, is a real possibility for the Bills. Beane has long been an aggressive draft-day trader when he’s excited about a prospect and how he’d fit their system. Now, with a gaping hole for a top target at wide receiver and where the Bills are in their build, this is the type of move Beane could rationalize as one that puts them over the top for the foreseeable future.
The cost of doing business might be high for some, which is understandable. I’m sure it will evoke memories of the Bills’ move up the board to take Sammy Watkins in 2014. But this is an entirely different situation from 2014 — almost comically so. Back then, it was the desperate move of a franchise hoping Watkins would help EJ Manuel become the franchise quarterback while blatantly ignoring several warning signs he was not that player. Now, there’s nothing for their quarterback to prove. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, a still-talented roster around him, and a pretty good idea that they’ll be pushing for the playoffs at the very least in 2024.
By arming him with a young receiver with elite potential on a rookie deal for the next four years, it gives the Bills a lot of flexibility for how they spend through the duration of the receiver’s rookie deal. I’d liken this move more to the one the Atlanta Falcons made in 2011 to fly up the board and select Julio Jones, already with a top quarterback in Matt Ryan in place. They certainly didn’t regret that trade for a second.The recent trade of Diggs, and acquiring the Vikings’ 2025 2nd from the Texans, could empower Beane to make a stark move up the board like this one, too. With an extremely unsettled quarterback room — either starting journeyman backup Sam Darnold or a rookie — that pick has a good chance of turning into an early second-round selection. If that does happen, the Bills could easily get themselves back at the end of the first round next year, or just view their early second-round pick as their first-round pick replacement for dealing it away to get a potential game-changing receiver. For the right player, Beane will move a first-round pick.
Is Nabers worth this type of move? In a more standard draft year, Nabers would easily be the best receiver prospect by a wide margin and likely one of the first players selected. He is outrageously talented and smooth, with the explosiveness to win however the Bills ask him to. The separation is effortless whether he’s at X, Z or slot and he gets the defender to bite at his breakdown constantly. He can win with physicality or speed and will eat cushion from off-defenders alive. Nabers has excellent, crisp footwork, and his contested catch concentration is simply outstanding. On top of it all, he can be a monster with yards after the catch, either using physicality to drag defenders or his 4.35 speed to blow up a play.
Nabers has all the potential to be a star in the NFL, and with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Allen, it increases that likelihood by a large margin. Nabers is worth the hype. But would he make everyone forget about the price tag? It certainly looks like he has all the potential to do so. And with the Bills looking like they’ll have cap space to work with in 2025, it could be the catalyst to another push toward the top of the AFC.
Rest of draft:
The problem with this scenario is that he has the Chargers taking on offensive lineman while their elite qb has no receivers to throw to. It strikes me as completely implausible as a consequence.
-
1
-
-
45 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Don't tell me, I'm not the one arguing it by implication. But that definitely appears to be the tack taken by so many implicitly.
I'm a bigger fan than that.
What needs to be given a rest is this sentiment that we haven't underachieved come playoff time or that KC is invincible. If the latter is the case, who cares who's coaching.
Arguing who is the “bigger fan” is a chump’s game. Everyone here is a fan in their own way.
38 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:I won't mind a big move, bit draft wise I’m not sold that anyone other than Harrison is worth more of a move up than it takes for Thomas. I may need to watch some more Malki Nabers and Rome Odenzu highlights.
I think Nabors is the best receiver in the draft.
-
36 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
It was a 2025 2nd round. The usual practice is a future year's pick is considered to be a round lower, to compensate
Fair point, and I’ve always thought this way. BUT the reason I’ve thought that way is that GMs and coaches are always close to being fired, and giving up a year in terms of a delay on a pick is from their perspective an increase in the chances they’ll be fired. The assumed discount in this sort of situation has always related to the decline in job security for decision makers/coaches. In the case of Beane and McDermott, though, I don’t think that’s remotely a possibility. They will be with the Bills in 2025.
1 minute ago, PBF81 said:Yup, if everyone just lowered their expectations, yes, yes it would.
Dude, this line of argument is so tired. Give it a rest, seriously.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
Ever watch a QB constantly target a WR and nobody can stop it...kinda like Mahomes to Tyreek Hill or TE Travis Kelec?
Buffalo needs a WR / TE that can get open and catch the ball no matter who is covering them like the two above. Diggs was good, but he wasn't that guy. Look at his stats in the playoffs the last few seasons and he does nothing in those games. Not worth 24 million a year to disappear in the playoffs.
From Jerry Jabber:
There’s a saying in the NFL, you’re only as good as your last game. Here’s Diggs’ stats in the last four playoff losses.
6 rec, 77 yards, 0 TD
3 rec, 7 yards, 0 TD
4 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD
3 rec, 21 yards, 0 TD
Beane has a plan!
All true, but I feel it’s very necessary to say that Diggs’s catch of the two point conversion that put the Bills up 29-26 in the 13 seconds game was a) not recorded as a catch and b) an effing spectacular catch. Plus while it wasn’t with the Bills, he made the best postseason catch-and-run td reception in this millennium.
-
Not sure this has been posted yet (I don’t have time to search), but it’s good: https://theathletic.com/5387835/2024/04/03/stefon-diggs-trade-bills-texans-attitude/
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
Reposting this because it's going to get lost in the thread:
The Bills kept the issues under wraps for the most part. But anyone who knew someone close to the team was aware of his constant distractions, both in public and behind the scenes.
Wow - I missed that. Thanks for reposting.
-
2
-
-
I am not going to write this year off, but I don’t see them as favorites to win the division right now.
-
2
-
-
5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Aaron Kromer's daughter:
Everybody around the team knew he was a headache and a distraction. I'm glad it is all finally coming out.
Wow.
-
9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I can absolutely see something like that. I think the Bills trading into the top 10 just became possible.
I think that’d be a terrible trade UNLESS they truly, truly believe (like some) that Nabors is the best WR prospect to come out since Chase. A lot of people have him higher than Harrison.
2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Was just reading this! Interesting how low he has Legette at.