dave mcbride
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Posts posted by dave mcbride
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I'm very sorry to hear this. My thoughts are with you.
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18 minutes ago, Chaos said:
I am a huge believer in making decisions based on analytics. But I don't thinnk football head coaches in general have demonstrated mathematical genius ( I am not saying I am). The 4th and 3 play call with a 14 point lead in the NFC championship game, I think is an example of not properly understanding the math.
I will start with an analogy. Imagine a dice game, where the rules allow you to pick either of the following situations A) rolling 1-5 pays you even money B) rolling a 6 pays you 100-1. If I tell you you get to roll the die 50 times, the expected return for A is that you would roll 1 to 5 5/6 or 42 times $42 dollars (assuming a $1 bet each time and the expected return on B is that you would roll 6 eight times and get a return of $800. Any rational person would select B as there choice. While the numbers are extreme this is similar to the 'analytics' of going for it on fourth and 3 on the opponents 20 yard line. Over a large number of interations, the correct statistical decision is to go for it on fourth and 3.
Now imagine if after your fifty rolls, you have collected you $800 based on your selection of B. You made the wise decision. However, lets say the rules of the game change (like in the second half of an NFC championship game). Now there is only 1 roll of the die. If you roll a 1-5 you get to keep your $800. If you roll a 6, your $800 grows to $900. A rational person would always select A in this scenario. However I feel as though Dan Campbell was confused by the excitement of winning with analytics over the course of a 17 game decision, and tried to apply a season long anaytic concept to a very small remaining set of plays. And he made a mistake. Not quite as extreme as my dice example. But a field goal from that spot is probably 90% plus successful (2.7 points) , and a conversion was probably 70% likely (4.9 points expected value, if we assume the conversion leads to a TD 100% of the time). The difference in expected points between 2.7 and 4.9 was not worth increasing the likelhood of zero from 10 to 30%.
The other issue I always raise with regard to the situation is the opponent. The 49ers are not the Commanders. They finished first in defense last season and 3rd this season.
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10 hours ago, Simon said:
45+yrds FG on bad grass can be dicey propositions and we didn't see what the Lions crappy K was doing pregame, so I don't think either of those calls was necessarily "wrong"
Well, situationally it seemed pretty wrong to me. Here’s why: first, going up by 3 scores is huge in a game, and if you’re presented with the opportunity to do it, you don’t gamble it away. The Lions’ kicker is decent enough, and you have to assume he’ll likely make that kick in not-terrible weather. Second, you have to consider the opponent: an elite defense that ranked first last year and third this year. In other words, they weren’t playing the Commanders. Success on a fourth down try is less likely against a great defense than an average one, which goes without saying. It seems obvious to me that the you have to kick in those situations. Maybe he misses, but it’s the sounder strategy in terms of probability.
I also thought the Chiefs were unwise to go for it against Baltimore on 4th and 1 from the 13 because failure meant giving up a chance to go ahead by two scores. The ravens D was #1 overall.
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22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Mario Williams was the last truly elite game changer we had up front. I think Ed was pretty close this past year. Yes Sunday was not a good game for him, but I have confidence he will build again next season.
Thuney had a 99.1 percent win rate this season, so I can’t really fault Ed. Thuney was off-the-charts good this season. The bigger question posed by a very close friend who is a diehard Pats fan (going back to the Grogan/Sam Bam Cunningham days) is why Belichick let him go. Yet another terrible personnel decision by BB.
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Sending positive thoughts right now.
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8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
Explain Nate Hackett? Or Pat Shurmur having two chances to be a head coach? Or Rob Ryan? Or Andy Reid’s ex heroin son being a d line coach? Or garbage Brian Schottmeir? Or a million other examples.
im not saying it’s all racism but it isn’t just the best guys getting the job. There is a guy in high school or college who is a million times better than Hackett but will never get a chance because is dad wasn’t a nfl coach or he’s not friends with the right people.
The NFL coaching system is lot more like the medieval guild system than the modern workplace. In the 15th century, a master craftsman would train his son for the profession, ensure he got into the guild, hand down the business to him at the appropriate moment, and the system would perpetuate itself through generations. The wild card in all of this is whether the son deserves it irrespective of whether he had outsized advantages in training/mentorship along the way. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach, and he is where he is because of who his father is. But perhaps he was exposed to learning that no one else gets given who his father was. But of course there's Hackett, Steve Belichick, the Reid kids, Gregg Williams's son, the Shulas, etc. etc. I'm sure I'm forgetting some. It can be infuriating, but once when understands that it has always operated like a medieval craftsmen's guild, it becomes less mystifying. The Rooney Rule cuts against that, which is a good thing.
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12 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Maybe?
2022 best in the NFL, 2023 very mediocre.
How much of Bass’ issues lie at the fault of Smiley?
None. It’s all on Bass.
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10 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I think on reflection I would prefer to move on from Brady. It's nothing he did specifically. I just still see an overall lack of crispness in the finer details of the offense and that's what separates champions from divisional round losers. The routes aren't precise in a way that opens up other routes, the players aren't always on the same page, there appears to be an overall lack of accountability. I think Brady is a perfectly fine play designer and play caller. But I want a true coach at the position. Someone that the players respect and fear. Brady is probably too young to have that kind of reputation amongst 20-something multimillionaires. He still has his dues to pay in the league.
So for me I think my preference is Eric Bieniemy. He has a reputation that players don't enjoy working for him. I take that as a positive. He isn't afraid to hold anybody accountable, not even Mahomes when he was in KC. That more than an offensive whiz kid is what I think this offense needs to be more consistent on a week to week basis. He learned under the best of the best and for a time was even making Sam Howell look competent. He is a complete 180 from the coaching styles of Dorsey and Brady... maybe that's just what we need.
If you want someone like that, I think Josh McDaniel is someone they should be talking to. Yes, his head coaching gigs didn’t work out, but he ran incredibly well-designed offenses in NE that adapted weekly to whoever the opponent was. And he got a Pro Bowl season out of Mac Jones. Is he likable? Maybe not, but neither is Bienemy.
I also thought Washington’s offense this year was ragged and too high-risk. The sack numbers were ridiculous, and while a lot of that is on Howell, a good part of it is on the structure of the offense too.
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Sounds like he’s a pretty good gambler.
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12 hours ago, BBFL said:
Im not a huge Jim Harbaugh fan but I think that he’ll make a success out of that franchise for a few years, drop to mediocrity and then move on.Now granted he had an outstanding defense but there was success offensively with both Alex Smith & Kaepernick.
Kaepernick was a better runner than Herbert but I think he’s no slouch there… Definitely a better passer. Who knows if it was just Roman’s system or the combination of that and Harbaugh that made Kaep’ a success but the wheels certainly came off his career when Greg and Jim left SF.
Do you feel he’s going to be a success in LA or is it the wrong choice?If Harbaugh’s success is only short lived but they win a SB, then it’s all worth it. Quality, not quantity.
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19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
top 12
Mahomes
Josh
Lamar
Burrow
Herbert
Stroud
Stafford
Dak
Goff
Purdy
Love
Hurts
In another reality I’d put Burrow up there with Allen and Lamar, but since the best ability is availability, I can’t. He has basically effectively missed two seasons in five years: a full season (2020) and another season where he started out hampered by injury and then went down halfway through and was out for the stretch run (2023).
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Surprised about the fact that there’s very little love here for Goff. I think he’s evolved into a damn good quarterback who seems to almost alway make the right throw. Plus he’s accurate. But don’t listen to me; listen to Fred Warner: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/fred-warner-jared-goff-the-reason-lions-are-where-they-are-now
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
I think it was his decision as much as theirs, but you are not wrong on the Fangio - Josh point.
My immediate thought was that Fangio proved that his previous failures to slow down the Bills were not flukes but features of his system. Allen et al have moved the ball at will against his defenses, and there is only one real barrier to Miami in the AFC east right now: Buffalo.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Another victim of the fact that half the league wants to run the Kyle Shanahan offense without Kyle Shanahan. O'Cyrus isn't the natural bender or lateral mover that you generally look for in that scheme. And once you don't fit that scheme at the moment on offense the number of landing spots for you cuts almost in half. You go from 32 teams who could pick you to about 16.
Really solid rookie year. Some inside speed rush issues in the middle of the year - particularly when teams are putting their edge guys inside to attack his inside shoulder - but pretty solid. He gave up 3 sacks and 40 pressures. Trey Smith of the Chiefs, who is one of the best right guards in the league, gave up 2 and 34.
I also think that a majority of teams are of the don’t-ever-draft-a-guard-in-the-first-round-because-it’s-bad-value school, which also drove his final slotting.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
THIS. This was my take from the video, even Davis looks stunned he is getting crap from classless fans in a game he didn't even play in. I mean dude played hard for this team regardless of what people think about his ability as a WR2. He has been a "dawg" as Beasley alluded too for this team since he got here in how he played, especially in his tenacity in blocking as a WR too.
Im ready for a change at WR2 like many people are, but Gabe has been nothing but a model citizen and selfless teammate. He did not at all deserve this kind of harassment from some idiot fans. And mark my words, those fans are f-ing idiots.
While I think a change at WR2 will be good for both Davis and this team, I don't know why anyone feels he deserves this kind of ridicule and hostility. I wish him well wherever he lands.
Apparently—at least according to his mom—he was defending Bass from a-hole fans (and yes, there are a lot of a-hole Bills fans): ‘Davis' mother, Alana, posted on X that Gabe was “taking up for Bass.” Davis can be seen comforting Bass, along with quarterback Josh Allen, in the tunnel area after the game.’
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9 minutes ago, Peter said:
I find it funny how people post he “sucks” etc.
I have disagreed with Dunne in the past, but just because he writes something that might hurt McD’s feelings doesn’t mean Dunne sucks.
The guy has some insight and some behind the scenes sources.
One of the most interesting things he has written is that Terrry really wanted Mahomes but did not want to meddle with McD who wanted to trade that pick so that he could draft a defensive back rather than a generational QB.
The good news is that we are very lucky to have Josh Allen. Josh’s ability covers up a lot of deficiencies on the team and (in my mind) is the reason why McD is still the Bills head coach. Without Josh, there is no way we would have done nearly as well as we have the past few years.
Another tidbit: I have it on very good authority that Terry loved Josh and was a driving force in our picking him.
I can only imagine how toxic this board and Bills fans would be if we had traded the rights to pick one of the best QBs in the history of the NFL (and who beats us in the playoffs to rub it in), if we did not have Josh.
Thankfully, McD did not insist on picking another defensive back instead of Josh.
It's the hot take-ness of it all. It's clear that he's not trying to be fair-minded but to build a brand as a "truth teller to power" so he can make a good living and get to the Nick Wright level of cruelty/bellicosity that is the only thing which the legacy-media-is-dead era rewards financially. To quite SpongeBob, good luck with that. He's operating in a brutal media structure, but he's weak enough to succumb to the worst impulses it fosters because he seems to assume that he can build a career by offering the negative dopamine that depressed fan bases (Bills fans included!) wondering if their team will ever win the big one need to get through the day. The BN and the Athletic actually feature measured, balanced writers willing to weigh the good and the bad, but that isn't the way one goes about the sports analysis business in the Wild West that is the post-legacy media landscape. He's a symptom of a structural change and is probably blind to it.
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3 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:
I knew the injuries would be the rally cry. What about in 20 and 21 when the D was relatively healthy and McD’s unit still gave up 38 and 42? Or when we couldn’t stop the Bengals last year?
Healthy or not, McD’s side of the ball ALWAYS lets us down in big games. Literally every single time.
They were literally decimated by injuries going into this game, and if you want to ignore that by making false equivalences with past performances without actually analyzing the real situation facing the Bills on Sunday, be my guest. It’s effing stupid analysis by analogy, but fans (and Dunne) are gonna be fans. Not all situations are the same.
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1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Then you're missing out on a man telling the truth here. I get that Dunne has a "rep" but check these out and tell me he's wrong:
Those suffering from Drought Brain — terrified of another dark age — will soon nestle into another blanket of excuses and swiftly demonize any criticism of team, of coach.
None of this happens if the Bills — ownership on down — operate with Allen at forefront of mind. He’s the most important person in the building. He’s the employee with the richest contract in Buffalo sports history. That’s what blew the minds of so many players and coaches I spoke to for The McDermott Problem. Those who’ve been around McDermott every day describe the coach as a simpleton when it comes to this position, as if he never understood that Allen was the No. 1 reason this team is a Super Bowl contender.
As I write this column, McDermott is holding his season-ending press conference. He says the biggest reason for their turnaround was cutting down turnovers. Let’s hope he doesn’t try to neuter Allen’s arm this offseason after taking aim at his legs last offseason
This piece is friggin’ stupid. And I have my issues with McDermott. Dunne is doing the Substack-adjacent version of what Nick Wright does — accentuating all the negatives to rile up a fanbase in order to build his brand. The Bills lost to a better (because healthier) team in KC that also has a better kicker and would have lost to a very healthy Ravens team next week.
1 minute ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:
To be honest, missing the playoffs may have been the best thing for us. I can’t bring myself to actually root for that…but would I take missing the playoffs in exchange for McD being gone? Absolutely.It’s almost as if the Bills weren’t decimated by injury on defense on Sunday.
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1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:
https://www.golongtd.com/p/the-buffalo-bills-have-a-decision
Tyler Dunne is spot on. Great article I don’t understand how at the very least we couldn’t have told Sean McDermott hey we’re going to explore other options at head coach in the next few weeks. We are not firing you unless we find someone we think will maximize Josh Allens talents and get us to a Super Bowl more than you can.
It’s an off-season that has Hall of Fame coaches just sitting there for the taking. Why not at least check it out. What’s the worst that happens if we do that? McD gets pissy and resigns. Well thank God for that.
Wow, this is quite the screed. Definitely a crusade at this point.
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3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Yeah I agree that he has some very Davis-like concerns but he's just a lot more talented/athletic. I also agree that the Bills needs at WR have changed. They need a Stef replacement now, not just a Stef complement. AND they need a complement to THAT guy. They've got TE and slot covered with really talented players in Kincaid and Shakir. Problem is that you aren't likely to be getting a first round talent WR outside of the top 18-20 picks anymore. You are getting guys with potential but with holes in their game. I've never warmed to Franklin as a 1st round pick but it's entirely possible that I am under-rating him. I like Legette more than him. He is a beast but he's pretty raw for a 23 year old one-year-wonder.
Yep. I am not opposed to trading up a bit this year because this ain't 2014 and the Bills have a window to keep in mind.
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Just now, NewEra said:
Well….. we lost. So we can say that decision may have lost us the game.
No we can't. They didn't have a good play on third down (coverage; there was no plausible first down on that play) and their kicker missed an easy kick that most kickers handle no problem.
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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I stand by running the clock was our best chance to win the game. We took 3-5 yards every play all game- then abandoned it when we needed to stick to it. TD leaves Mahomes 1:40 with timeouts. Out d couldn’t stop them all day- not sure that would’ve changed. It most likely would’ve been the worst ending possible. Kelce beating AJ Klein to lose the game
If a TD is there, you HAVE to take it. Full stop. You have no idea if there will be another chance or if a receiver is going to fumble or have a drop that leads to a tipped pass/INT or whatever. As for KC, they couldn't be stopped for most of the game -- except for the two previous possessions. Maybe a tipped ball from Mahomes results in an INT. Their receivers were bad all season. Maybe they fumble. Whatever you do, though, don't turn down the TD opportunity when it's there because it might be the last one you see.
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Just now, NewEra said:
He stayed patient until the final 2 offensive plays. Sigh
The TD to Shakir was there. I will never fault him for that one. He hits that throw all of the time when his base is stable.
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56 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
There were mistakes for sure. But deep balls and fake punts on 4th and 5 aren't plays where there is a high probability of success. The Bass kick was a relative chip shot. People comparing it to Norwood's kick miss the point that Norwood hadn't made a kick that far on grass in a very long time. We are accustomed to 50+ yard kicks being fairly routine nowadays. Back then a 47 yarder was a long kick. It was just clearly out of his range so he over kicked it and just missed. Bass just shanked his misses in these playoffs. He has the yips.
After the soul crushing miss in the Giants SB, Norwood was 62.1 percent the next season and allegedly threatened to be thrown off the plane by Bruce Smith et al after his dismal performance vs the Raiders at the Colosseum in 1991. Smart teams recognize that they need a new kicker after that playoff performance because he CLEARLY has the yips. Even the XPs are adventures. As bad as the KC miss was, he at least elevated it over the LOS. The worst was the Giancarlo Stanton-elevation level line drive vs the Steelers that single-handedly got Pittsburgh back in the game.
He has to go. To paraphrase Charles DeGaulle, the graves are filled with indispensable place kickers.
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When Analytics/Philosophy blind coaches to Situational Awareness
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Yes, the three score lead vs. two score lead is definitely a huge factor. It's not like they were trying to go from 17-14 to 20-14.