dave mcbride
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Posts posted by dave mcbride
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2 minutes ago, Brandon said:
Also Xavier Legette and the two Texas WRs. All three will likely go in the late R1/early R2 area.
I try my best to forget about Sammy Watkins.
I get that, but he was pretty fricking good in his first two seasons when healthy. In the final game of the 2015 season, he metaphorically sent Revis to the glue factory. Basically uncoverable. Of course, his career was a disappointment overall.
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2 hours ago, Brandon said:
The Bills could have Calvin Johnson 2.0 sitting on the board at 28 and I wouldn't bet against them to take a 5'10 DB with 4.55 speed. That's been true for about 30 years now.
Sammy Watkins wants to have a word with you.
48 minutes ago, paulmm3 said:Nobody on this team can catch the effing ball. Seriously, nobody. None of the WR. Knox has gotten better, and Kincaid has gotten better, but no reliable pass catchers on the roster. I get that Josh throws it hard, but your job is to catch the ball. I don't even care about size or speed of the WRs that we get in the draft as long as they can catch the ball.
Huh? Shakir and Kincaid had extremely high catch rates.
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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
We need more explosion on the outside. Sure I think we need a couple of pieces on defense - DL and Safety will have holes - but the primary focus should be explosive outside playmakers.
I will give them some credit... they focussed on OL last offseason (a year too late by my estimation) and it worked. They added Kincaid, that worked too. But the explosion outside needs to come this year.
From The Athletic:
“1. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs for the third time in the past four seasons. Two quick takeaways, one for each team.
• What the Bills must do: Defensive injuries give Buffalo a potential out for its inability to stop the Chiefs when it mattered, but it’s an out the organization cannot afford to take. The issues on that side of the ball run deeper and will require some form of roster overhaul for the future.
Thirty-five defensive players logged at least 10 snaps for the Bills and Chiefs on Sunday. Seven of the eight oldest played for Buffalo: Linval Joseph (35), Von Miller (34), Micah Hyde (33), Jordan Poyer (32), A.J. Klein (32), DaQuan Jones(32) and Leonard Floyd (31).
The Bills keep getting older on defense while the Chiefs have gotten much younger.
The chart below shows the average ages on defense for the Chiefs and Bills since 2019, using data from TruMedia. The averages are weighted for playing time to provide higher resolution.
The Chiefs ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play during the regular season with eight defensive starters drafted since 2020. The Bills ranked seventh but are older, smaller and more injured, giving them less staying power, which showed up Sunday. (Kansas City has consistently averaged about five pounds heavier per defender on a snap-weighted basis, using unofficial player weights.)
“Buffalo is an effort-pursue defense that is going to take speed over size every time,” an opposing coach said of the Bills, “so their best player is (linebacker) Matt Milano, and he’s small (221 pounds) and he got hurt. At the end of this game, when everybody wants them to get a stop and get the ball back for Josh Allen, Kansas City gets the first down easily.”
Buffalo and Kansas City, unlike their counterparts in the NFC bracket, are paying top dollar for their quarterbacks. That forces them to budget accordingly for the long range. But with age comes higher salaries. Buffalo has 10 defensive players earning at least $3.5 million per year this season. Kansas City has three.
The Chiefs made a calculated bet in the 2022 offseason, trading Tyreek Hill for picks and investing heavily in defense in the draft, and they made those investments count. They leapfrogged the Bills in the first round for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was a first-team All-Pro this season. George Karlaftis, taken nine picks later, has added to an impressive homegrown pass rush.
The Bills have taken some swings on defense in the draft, but without the same results. After Kansas City took McDuffie, Buffalo made a small trade-up for cornerback Kaiir Elam, who has just eight starts through two seasons. The Bills spent a first and two second-round picks on pass rushers (A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham) from 2020 to 2021, but none has been as productive as Karlaftis, leading them to splurge on a 33-year-old Miller in 2022.
The Bills have many things to figure out this offseason, including what direction the offense is headed following an in-season coordinator change on that side of the ball. Defensively, they need to follow the Chiefs’ lead in reversing the aging process.“
https://theathletic.com/5215245/2024/01/22/chiefs-bills-nfl-divisional-playoffs-ravens-lions/
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I rewatched that kick. It wasn't even close, and Butker's kicks basically stayed straight. Just a bad kick all around, and also suggestive of a lack of power. They have to move on from him next season. Maybe he recovers, but I really don't think you can bank on him overcoming the yips (or whatever his problem is). I'm certainly not willing to take that chance. There are going to be other available kickers who are better than him. I worried going into the game that in a close one, it'd come down to a difference between the kickers, and sadly that's what happened. Butker made both of his.
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4 minutes ago, Logic said:
Who's Nick Wright?
If you don't know who Nick Wright is, your life is better than it would otherwise be.
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Just epic and a must-read: https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/nick-wright-and-the-shameless-clown. It is eviscerating and entirely deserved, so enjoy!
(For those who don't know, DeBoer writes mostly about politics/society in a variety of media outlets and is the author of a pretty good book on meritocracy and inequality, The Cult of Smart.)-
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Just now, Brand J said:
That’s the problem, you don’t know if you’re mortgaging picks to select a future all pro, a middling player, or a bust like Quentin Johnson (yes it’s early but I’m calling it already). Good receivers can be had all over the draft. Picking at the top gives you a better chance to hit on a great talent, but you also run the risk of selecting a bust. For a team in need of youth on cheap contracts, I’m just not in favor of mortgaging picks for a lottery ticket.
Just for fun, these were a few difference makers selected after 28:
2Deebo Samuel 36
AJ Brown 51
George Pickens 52
DK Metcalf 64
3
Tank Dell 69
Cooper Kupp 69
Terry McLaurin 76
Chris Godwin 84
Nico Collins 89
4
Amon-Ra St Brown 112
5
Stefon Diggs 146
Hunter Renfrow 149
Tyreek Hill 165
Darius Slayton 171
Puka Nacua 177
I get it, but what I'm talking about is a player the team truly believes will be that guy. Of course, personnel guys are wrong all the time, but if they DO believe -- like the believed in Kincaid last year (who I was all in on) -- you have to have the courage of your convictions and go get that guy. They loved Jordan Addison last year, and they were right about him.
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Just now, Coach Tuesday said:
I don't think they were going for it until they realized KC had 10 men on the field. I could be wrong, but that's what I understood.
Plays to scrubs can be stopped with 10 men if you're looking for it. And they appeared to be.
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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:
The call was fine but it was clear they hadn't practiced that play very often. Smiley should not be employed by an NFL team.
The call wasn't fine. If I'm KC, my view would be this: the Buffalo punter has already demonstrated that he's a liability, and if they're ever going to run a fake, it's going to be in a somewhat desperate situation when they're fielding an unreliable kicker. And KC was of course ready for it. Also, giving it to a scrub who needed to get five yards? If you're going for it, give it to Josh Allen.
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20 minutes ago, Brand J said:
I feel opposite. This team needs an infusion of youth on cheap contracts, you can’t get that trading away capital. Difference making receivers aren’t only found at the top of the first round, it’s easier to identify one in theory, but they get selected pretty much throughout the first to the fifth round. Just gotta hit on the right one(s).
CeeDee Lamb was 17th. Justin Jefferson was 22nd. Brandon Aiyuk was 25th. Jordan Addison was 22nd. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 20th. Zay Flowers was 22nd. DJ Moore was 24th. Calvin Ridley was 26th.
ALL of those slots come before 28. If they see a guy from 15 onward who can help take their space alien QB's passing game to the next level, they gotta do to what they need to do to get him. It's what's holding the Bills back now more than anything else. Obviously, it goes without saying that they shouldn't be reaching for the next Jaelon Rheagor or DeVante Parker.
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2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
There’s a saying I am fond of: “Success knows many fathers but failure is an orphan.” Well, that is inverted with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills deserved to lose that game last night, and there were many, many contributing factors.
- If I am to pick one person who doesn’t have feces smeared on his face this morning it’s Joe Brady. I won’t say that he called a perfect game, but if I told you that the Bills had put up 24 points while holding onto the ball for 14 more minutes than the Chiefs I think a lot of people would have expected a blowout. Even if there was a bit of a stall when the Chiefs adjusted to stop the run, the offense was clicking up to the 2 minute warning. At 2nd and 9 at the 36, the Bills were in position to burn the clock and either force OT with a chipshot FG or put the dagger in with a TD. And guys were open. I can’t fault Brady for that. Maybe the offense wasn’t high flying, but if I was going to write a game script, the long drives (mostly for TD) is exactly what I would have tried to do to keep KC off the field and the defense rested. That is, if the defense could actually get a stop. If I am the Bills, I am doing everything I can to keep him, even if its just for one more year.
- Look, I get it. The defense is banged up. We all know it. We were running AJ Klein out there. But having AJ Klein on Travis Kelce? OOOOOOOF. No wonder the Chiefs spammed that advantage. It seemed like nothing changed up until it was far too late. I saw the stat of 20+ yard plays and they absolutely crushed the Bills on those. The Bills would methodically grind out a TD and then the Chiefs would zip down to match. I said this week that it was time to push all chips into the table, and someone asked me what it mean. It meant that if the injured players were anywhere near to go we had to start them. I am not on the medical staff, but we clearly saw the difference.
- I will say this about 2023: Josh’s WRs, as a whole, let him down this season and I think it’s why things seemed to struggle. I get it that Mahomes isn’t working with his best cast but my god, those drops my Sherfield and Diggs were backbreaking. For people who said that it can’t get worse than Gabe Davis, this is my retort. Even one of those deep catches working out changes the script.
- Special teams. Oof. Where do I even begin? I know I don’t like Matt Haack, but even he would have been better than Martin last night. Martin was clearly not ready and he gifted field position. Bass has been unclutch, and if he can’t kick in December winds I think it might be time to move on. But for the love of god, what was with that fake punt? I know they saw a mismatch, and it wound up not giving points, but sweet mercy was that painful to watch play out. With that kind of advantage, what does it say about coaching one of the highest paid ST units in the league? We pay guys for this level of play.
- Josh. I love Josh Allen. He is a special player. But for the love of god did he screw the pooch inside of 2 minutes. It’s not that I hate taking a shot at the end zone on a 2nd and long. In most situations, I am fine with it even if it doesn’t work out. But you have to know the situation here. The decision to gun it at that moment is terrible. Say it worked, that the Bills gun the ball into the endzone to take a 4 point lead under two minutes. That is 1:55 and 2 timeouts for the Chiefs to score and they had shown little issue moving up and down the field. Diggs is wide open on the crossing route for what should be an easy 1st down or a makeable 3rd. The clock keeps ticking. The Bills don’t need to hurry they have 2 timeouts and Kansas will be burning some too. Josh is a veteran at this point and while he had a good game on the whole those are the kinds of things people point too when they say that Mahomes is on another level.
- So that’s my autopsy. Where do we go from here? Well…there actually isn’t a lot the Bills can do. I know the cap is malleable but even if I wanted to advocate burning it all down the Bills really can’t. (I know, I looked into it after Denver and Philly). Our top 4 cap hits are Josh, Diggs, Von Miller and Dion Dawkins. Dawkins is the only one we could cut outright and get cap space for, and why would we? He played at a Pro Bowl level. Josh, if anything, will be looking at an extension. Even if I wanted to move on from Diggs and Von on down years, knowing their potential makes me loath to lose cap space. The biggest pending FA departures are set to be Hyde (who I think might just retire), DaQuan and Floyd. The last two I think we have a decent chance of getting back.
- In spite of everything, I do think there is legitimate reason for optimism. The one thing about the utter devastation on our defensive starters is that we found that we have extremely talent depth who looked good as starters in big moment. Bernard really came on as a LB and we thought was a Pro Bowl snub. Back with a healthy Milano that looks like an incredible talent pairing with solid depth in Williams and Spector. We still have a solid CB group (Douglas, Benford, TJ). The O-line had its best year in a while and looks to be mostly intact going in (I can see only one potential cap casualty). James Cook looks like a superstar. Our draft classes over the last two years hit in big ways. We saw starters and significant rotation from our 2022 and 23 drafts (Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Spector, Kincaid, Torrence, Williams), which speaks very well to longevity. 2024 will be taking some medicine on some contracts (Knox, Miller, possibly Tre White if the team thinks he’s washed), and this team can still compete.
- Coaches! I really hope the Bills retain Brady and give him another year to scheme. For reference, around the league Brian Johnson of the Eagles (and the second half collapse that has every fan howling for blood) is apparently a hot candidate at the moment. Compared to that Brady is Bill Walsh. McDermott needs help too, I expect a DC to help him even if he handles play calling still.
- Offseason: WR, WR, WR. If I am Beane, I am grinding film on every 1st and 2nd round prospect. Draftek does good work, and there are 14 WRs with the measurables to be a potential Peerless Price class player in the top 100 picks. There has to be someone available at 28. I don’t care if it’s a reach, get them.
Good post. With regard to WR, I am of the mind that if THAT guy is there at, say the 15-17 slot, trading up and use a bunch of capital to do it has to be done at this point. They need to give an Allen elite option who can win regularly win one-on-one NOW.
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1 minute ago, QB Bills said:
The Chiefs faced third down only 5 times throughout the game and did not face a 4th down. Did a quick google check and that's only happened 7 other times in the last 25 years. And the crazy thing is, they only converted one of those 5. There are individual drives that have 5 third downs on the regular.
Just an epic meltdown on the defensive side of the ball. Not meaning to make this another fire McDermott thread, but he got absolutely schooled yet again in the playoffs. Yes they had injuries, but not nearly enough to excuse this level of futility.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/which-team-has-the-fewest-3rd-down-attempts-in-a-game
They faced a fourth down with 8+ minutes to go in the fourth. They punted.
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27 minutes ago, LewPort71 said:
Bills offense 7.2 yards per pass 4.7 yards per rush
Chiefs offense 12.6 yards per pass 7.2 yards per rush.
9.3 yards per pass -- 215 yards on 23 attempts.
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27 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
DL and the whole defense failed to step up again vs KC in the playoffs. The Hardman fumble saved this from being a blowout honestly. It was way to easy for KC.
Yep. Bills saved by the dumbest rule in the NFL.
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10 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:
That crossing route hurt, Diggs was wide open.
Shakir was wide open too.
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8 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Rousseau unfortunately did not have the breakout season that I expected him to have this year. He is possibly the best run stopping DE in the league and has been since his rookie season, but his pass rushing has not developed. 6.0 sacks in 18 games played is not what you hope for from a 1st rounder in his 3rd season.
I saw a stat that tonight was the first game since 2021 that Oliver had 0 pressures. The Chiefs have the best IOL in the league so this was somewhat expected. We needed our edge rushers to make an impact and it just didn't happen.
From the BN:
“Defensive tackle Ed Oliver had his lunch handed to him by Chiefs guard Joe Thuney. According to Next Gen Stats, Oliver had 10 one-on-one matchups against Thuney and failed to create a single pressure. Oliver and DaQuan Jones were held without a pressure on a combined 38 pass rushes.”
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10 minutes ago, Prospector said:
kinda gets negated by an extra game played in the AFCCG... plus, how many playoff games has Mahomes played at home?
Again, February stats should be included here.
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15 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:
That seems unreal given how Mahomes has played deeper into the playoffs each year, but there it is! We do indeed have something special cooking at QB…
Mahomes has a lot if TDs in February. Just sayin’.
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47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
He isn't going to boom the bleep out of it. That isn't who he is. He doesn't have a massive leg. But he is an experienced punter who understands the value of hang time, has experience with this crew - in terms of Reid and Tyler - important both for punting and holding, and has played in playoff games. Given where we are he was the best, most sensible, option. If he can get his punts off, not have a block and not leave any crazy short fields that is the best outcome. The risks associated with every other option floated are greater IMO.
https://micahhyde.com/my-story/
"In Micah’s junior year, he earned northern Ohio first-team honors as a quarterback, defensive back, and place kicker. In addition, he was named honorable mention as a punter."
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30 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:
11-3 all time. 8-2 since Mahomes took over. 4-1 on the road.
Well, they're 75-24 in the regular season in the Mahomes era, so the 8-2 mark matches pretty closely with the broader ratio: 7.5-2.4, which rounded is 8-2.
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35 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:
What kind of person thinks "I want to become a football referee"?
The son of a football referee?
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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
It’s just wild that McDermott is so good with d backs, FAs and low round/ UFAs, and can miss so bad on a 1st rounder.
I also think he was seriously injured this year. He had surgery on the ankle, right?
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
No I don't think it is. I think it is physical. I think his long limbs hurt him. He just looks awkward each time he tries to transition he is often late not becauee he diagnosed late but because he couldn't transition from drop to close quickly enough.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/kaiir-elam-florida-cb-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2022/ check out this scouting report. Not so accurate in retrospect!
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53 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
To be fair, after the INT when was he beat?
Regularly all game. He was playing off a lot and couldn't time his closing, so the separation was generally pretty substantial. He almost had a second pick, but that was a busted play because the receiver fell down. Still, he made a nice play on that one. He's just not very trustworthy on a regular basis. He gets spun around a lot.
If we keep Brady, I’m not so sure wide receiver is going to be a top priority come April.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Exactly.