dave mcbride
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Posts posted by dave mcbride
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Just now, ngbills said:
Tomlin coaching scared on O.
Weather is beyond awful. Factor that in.
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Just now, bills6969 said:
If they tie were in right?
Yes we are.
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
You're actually doing something you're not supposed to do in statistics - you're grouping together 3 single year datasets, then comparing them to a smaller data set of one year. One dataset has 484 points, one has 152. No bueno without strong justification. You need to look under the hood at the data to be sure that's OK to do, then you probably need to use some special statistical tools to ask "is this difference significant"? Where's one of our stats mavens to set us straight with the technical reasons? @oldmanfan I think?
For example, if you look year by year, 2020: 49% 2021: 46% 2022: 55%. This season: 41%. Binning together 3 years hides the variance year to year. And is 41% that different from 46%? Is 165
Now, that said, I think there are some points. Diggs is being used somewhat differently this year, in ways he wasn't used the 3 previous years. I don't recall Diggs being used on screens, or from the backfield, previously (as he has been this year). I think he's been used more from the slot. That folds into the fact that while his catch % is still good, his overall Y/R are down to 11 Y/R from 12 his first 2 years and 13 last year.
But it's a long stretch to say the problem is, we're "forcing the ball to him too much" when his targets are actually down from 2020/2021.
There actually is a stat, Success %, defined as a reception that gains 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down. Using that stat, we see that Diggs Success % is down this season (53%), but similar to 2021 (55%) when he was targeted even more.
Data from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DiggSt00.htmI think its a good call that something is off with the offense, and off with Diggs, but I'm not sure "forcing the ball to him too much" is it.
Re that measure, which I love, kincaid is at 61.4 percent and shakir is off the charts at 76.9. I have a feeling Shakir might a mainstay #3 for a long time. He can be a Beasley with time and experience.
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Diggs is obviously hurt and NFL teams obviously underreport injuries both for competitive reasons and for their players' own safety. End of story.
Just now, RyanC883 said:if he is hurt, they would ideally rest him and let him heal. He's done nearly nothing the past few games, but then again they can't rest him, because every game has been a must-win since the early season McD hole that was dug. And we have no WR#2 (thanks, Bean).
In the last two games, he has beaten defenders deep three times for what should have been house calls and Allen has missed him every time (two underthrows and one overthrow).
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I disagree with this to an extent.... but it was very small sample size. He was very good week 3 at Washington and then I'd argue week 4 vs the Dolphins was one of Tre's best 3 games as a Buffalo Bill. He was absolutely lock down in that game. But I agree that last season and even the first couple of games of this we hadn't seen close to the pre-ACL White. But I honestly think that is why he was so upset when the achilles happened - he knew those last two games were finally the real Tre White it had taken him so long to feel like that and he got less than two full games to enjoy it before another bad injury.
Achilles tears aren't nearly the death knell that they used to be and I'm curious to see if he can make a full comeback to the player he was in weeks 3 and 4 of this season.
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20 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
The “no excuses” people are out in force.
After the Chargers game, why wouldn’t they be?
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13 minutes ago, Simon said:
He is a great recruiter, not a great coach, imo. As long as his talent is superior to his opponent's (i.e. SF, UM) it typically overcomes the multiple mistakes he regularly makes. Additionally, he is much better off in college where players have less power and only have to put up with his idiocy and attitude for 2-3 years.
Every pro job he ever takes will likely blow up in his face within 3-4 years when adults and professionals are done with his stupidity and self-important ignorance.
He was a fantastic coach at San Diego (D 3, I know, but a realm where the coaching is what separates teams since all are pretty low talent) and rebuilt a bad Stanford program from the ground up. They went 12-1 his final year with an orange bowl win, and there’s no way you can say that they had more talent across the board than USC or Oregon. At SF, he took over a niners team that has been bad for a decade and immediately got them to 13-3 with Alex Smith. I don’t really see your point. Michigan looked to be running a much more sophisticated and well thought out scheme on both sides of the ball vs Alabama on Monday.
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22 minutes ago, mannc said:
How about almost losing at home to Skylar Thompson in last year’s wildcard game?
OMG. The Dolphins offense was horrible in that game. The Bills offense and ST gifted Miami most of their points and they averaged freaking 3.3 yards per play. The defense was fine in that game.
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1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:
Thanks but I couldn't open it. Was it good news?
It's really about how for the first time a team that wasn't completely loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits broke through the super-elite team wall (Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia) to beat one of those teams in the playoffs -- and control the LoS. It says that this Alabama team had the second highest rated recruit class of any team since 2002.
"But as Jalen Milroe, a former top-100 player in the 247Sports Composite, grabbed a low snap and charged ahead behind an offensive line bookended by two former five-star tackles and two more blue-chippers on the interior, he got stoned at the line of scrimmage.
On the play, Alabama’s five-star right tackle, JC Latham, who will likely be a 2024 first-round NFL Draft pick, got pushed onto his back directly into the running lane by Josaiah Stewart, a former three-star prospect who transferred to Michigan after beginning his career at Coastal Carolina.
Stars Matter. They always will.
But Michigan, which won the Rose Bowl and advanced to the national title game in Houston next week, proved that in today’s college football, stars aren’t the only thing that matter.
Michigan did something I’ve repeatedly said is impossible.
Michigan proved me wrong. As a result, it has forever changed how I view the sport.
For the entire College Football Playoff era — dating back to the 2014 season — the four-team field has been dominated by super teams that have consistently destroyed their peers on this stage, year after year, game after game, title after title. Until Michigan on Monday.
That may sound odd given Michigan was an undefeated Big Ten champion and a 2.5-point favorite over Alabama heading into the Rose Bowl. But it’s true.
So how are super teams defined? It’s all roster makeup based on recruiting rankings, the results of which are readily available in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.
There are two types of teams we find on this stage. First, the super teams built like Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, the types of programs that have recruited so well over the previous four or five cycles that they have future draft picks sitting on the bench. They often have double-digit five-star prospects and enough top-100 players on top of that to have a huge margin of error in recruiting hits and misses.
The second type is the “developmental teams,” the ones that recruit pretty well and do a tremendous job of evaluating and finding good fits. These teams are very good, but their overall roster strength pales in comparison to that of the super teams.
People repeatedly counter the “stars matter” mantra with things like “coaching matters” and “development matters,” but that was always so tiresome to hear because it’s not like Alabama and Georgia don’t evaluate and develop their players. Their players just often naturally do things physically that lower-ranked players can never do, regardless of development, heart or time spent in the gym and film room.
The super teams always, always, always beat the developmental teams at the end of the year.
Well, Michigan just proved it’s not always.
The 2023 Alabama team boasts the second-most talented roster — on paper — in the modern recruiting era (dating back to 2002). The average scholarship player on this team was a top-100 recruit coming out of high school. That is an absurd statistic. Even if half of the signees didn’t pan out, Alabama would still have 40-ish players who lived up to their recruiting hype and would be among the best players at their position in the country. That’s basically an entire two-deep. It’s unfathomable how many good players are on this team.
Michigan, meanwhile, ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite and has 16 fewer five-star prospects on its roster than Alabama. That doesn’t even account for how much more highly rated Alabama’s four-stars are than Michigan’s.
The result? Michigan, a senior-laden team, beat the crap out of the Crimson Tide. Sure, there were moments when it felt as though Alabama was going to win in the second half, but anyone who watched that game saw the Wolverines physically impose their will on Alabama, all the way to the final play."
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22 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:
Congrats to all Michigan fans. No excuses offered, Alabama was simply outplayed and frankly; the score didn't really reflect the game. Michigan was the clear winner. I think that Saban did well to lead the team this far given the somewhat shaky QB situation.
Once again, The Crimson Tide looks very good going ito 2024. It will be very interesting to see how the QB situation is handled.
ROLL TIDE!!!!!!
https://theathletic.com/5175155/2024/01/03/michigan-alabama-recruiting-rankings/
Bill: Not sure you have access to The Athletic, but this is a very interesting piece that I thought you might find interesting.
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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:
Ingram gave Dawkins fits his last matchup...caused a sack/fumble of Allen I believe in Miami last year
Ingram destroyed Dawkins when he played for Pitt in the 2021 season opener too. But maybe he’s lost a step.
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McDermott wisely calling time out when on the Bills’ final drive Brady had them lined up in shotgun in third and less than one at the NE 26 yard line with 2:41 left. I remember earlier in the season McDermott losing it when Dorsey did the same inside the one, which predictably resulted in a failure. The call there is ALWAYS to sneak it when you have Josh Allen and the tush push remains legal. My strong assumption is that McDermott saw them line up in shotgun and thought “what the actual f**k??” and called the TO. The Bills then reverted to the smart play, which of course worked. It’s those calls that can be the difference in a game.
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Just now, motorj said:
Don't think it's an injury for Diggs, I mean Metcalf had a lower back injury and still balled out with 100+ yrds
None of us knows the injury situation with any of these players because teams for excellent reasons don’t tell.
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14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I believe it's a back injury for Diggs. I think it was reported that he had a back injury earlier in the season. But also, Brady has killed the pass game in general. Everybody but Cook looks worse in the pass game with Brady than they had with Dorsey. The sample size is just small enough and people are still feeling sated about the Dorsey firing that they haven't gotten around to their pitchforks just yet.
I think they need to do a real interview process next year for OC. I worry that Brady is riding his Cowboys game high still.
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31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I really hope this is the case. Then at least there is hope for Diggs to return to form next year. My fear is that he has either lost some of his edge or his physical abilities have declined suddenly, or both.
Remember Woods playing with a torn groin and Hogan playing with torn ligaments in his wrist in their contract years, and both injuries clearly affected their play in retrospect (ie, the one year in his entire career that Hogan had the drops). Yet the injuries were never reported, and both had surgery immediately after the season.
Also, Diggs is pulling himself out constantly, which is so against type that I believe it HAS to be an injury.
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13 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:
Diggs looks hurt. His cuts are rounded off, and has little separation.
The short passes on the bubble screens are Brady trying to get him an easy one. But that's not really what Diggs does. The rush today, and the quick throw to the left was another example of trying to get him going. The long pass to him over the top today looked like he was running fast, but not sprinting.
I think he's got a lingering injury where he can go, but can't cut like he could in the early part of the year.
I believe he is playing with a semi-significant injury.
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20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
He hasn't been double covered since at least the Chiefs game. He is just plain getting swallowed up against single man coverage. At least when he was getting bracketed it was opening other things up. As of right now nothing is getting opened up because no one can win their basic 1v1 assignment.
I would add that on Allen’s deep throwing, he has reverted to line drive bombs that have to be perfectly placed because receivers have NO time to adjust. He is not putting the air under it that he did last season, when he solved his bomb problem. Diggs has been wide open on 3 deep passes in the last couple of weeks but Allen is throwing bullets that have no chance of being caught unless they are perfectly placed — which is damn hard to do on 65-air yard passes.
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Why the EFF are you returning that?????
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Just now, scuba guy said:
Huge block in the back on the td run by zappe on Bernard and of course no flag
No flags have been called all game.
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Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said:
I’ll say again, passing offense has been off for weeks
I worry that brady isn’t great at scheming guys open in the passing game. He is being outclassed by BB right now. Allen looks like a mess out there too, which ain’t helping.
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
But it was a bullet. Stopping your momentum to reach behind and real that in is extremely tough. If he had feathered it in fair enough. But he fired it in. Extremely tough on the receiver. QB error for me that one.
It was a bad throw.
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Just now, NewEra said:
What are we doing on O? Step it up Brady……. Wth
I fear we are watching a novice nfl offensive coordinator getting absolutely schooled by the best DC ever. There are no answers for Allen out there.
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1 minute ago, Buffalo619 said:
Our special teams have to be worse in league. We need a new st coach.
They have literally cost the team two losses on final plays because of miscues.
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Is there a reason bass isn’t kicking it into the EZ given what happened on the first kick? Is he losing his leg? I worry about that.
Texans at Colts Game Thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Yeah, catchable, but that was a HORRIBLE throw on an easy pass play. All the time, I see players who have to contort themselves like that on plays where they KNOW they have to focus on YAC drop such passes.