dave mcbride
-
Posts
23,209 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by dave mcbride
-
-
there is no OL in the league that is subjected to pressure and blitzes on every play like teh Bills are. Teams blitz specifically to stuff the run because they have no fear they will be burned if they guess wrong and it is a pass. They just continue throught the run gaps vbecause they know where to find Drew, know that he won't escape, and know that there is almost no chance that Drew will beat them with a big play.
Even teams with raw rookies aren't disrepected as much as the Bills O with Drew at QB.
Until drew makes a few big plays, the OL will continue to be pummelled and the run and pass games will suffer.
Drew may not block or run the ball, but he definitely has a big influence on how other teams play defense against the Bills.
call it the Bledsoe Factor
great post. i'll add one thing - have the bills ever had a starting rb (henry) who blocked so poorly?
-
i always like him. but I don't think he is anything close to what he was when he was considered a top qb back in his NE days. for the moment, since the alternatives are slim, we have to keep him as the starter.
allot of people make the mistake of only going back to his "dismal season of a year ago" when in fact it started the second half of his first season with us.
I'd like to see JP get a few games in this year. IF we are winning and Drew's in playing well and we are sniffing the playoffs, then of coarse leave him in.
so, on the surface, I am through giving DB the benefit of the doubt, but he has some time to prove me wrong and he is our only option right now.
(i have been kind of neutral all this time, not placing all the blame on him, but not having all the faith in him at the same time.)
bledsoe is exactly the same player now that he was in ne - he's no less mobile, and his arm is as strong as ever. that's the problem, because the league has changed. when joe gibbs was asked this summer what has changed the most in the game since he last coached, he said it was how quickly defenses were able to reach qbs now. in this age of DEs with 4.6 speed and LBs with 4.45 speed, players like bledsoe are the equivalent of dinosaurs.
-
I think the consensus here is that he's done very well. Even on the field, he hasn't done THAT bad. This team was 6-2 before it collapsed in 2002. Not entirely TD's fault. Yeah, he could have hired a coach with gonads, but they were 6-2 after 8 games. Last year? they were 2-0 before the eagles (0-2) came to town. Not TD's fault. He'll get a lot of blame for what happened, but that was on the coaches. This year? Too early to tell. So far, it looks like all this team needs is a wake up call.
if the bills lose to the pats, they will be 17-34 since donohoe's arrival. that translates to 54-108 in baseball.
by the way, contra scott pitoniak, the bills were 5-3 in 02, not 6-2.
-
agreed. but he's better in virtually every other category (completion pct, td-int ratio, sacks taken, etc.), and when you compare the first 3 years of both, here's how they look:
brady:
2001 - 6.9
2002 - 6.3
2003 - 6.9
= 6.6 average with a 61.9% completion rate and a 69/38 td/int ratio
bledsoe:
1993 5.8
1994 6.6
1995 5.5
= 6.0 average with a 53.4% completion rate and a 53/58 td/int ratio
i fully expect brady to boost his carerr ypa this year - he's at 8.63 right now.
-
I'll bet that was a bit of work to compile that! YPC does factor in, but it's hard to gage what part the capabilities of the receivers contributed.
A bit back, I looked at the percentage of +40 completions for Bledsoe, Farve and Testaverde. - 3 QB's with over 10 years in the league with many starts. They were comparable, at an average of 2.5% ot their attempts.
The problem, was - were these actually passes that went 40-plus yards in the air, or were some of then 6-yard pitches that went for a bunch of yards?
I think such info is known to NFL teams, but not to you or me.
I think with YPC figures, you would somehow have to factor in a team's offensive philosophy - the '80's Houston run 'n shoot, as an example.
good points, but i'm guessing it averages out in the end. in any case, qbs from all types of offenses - west coast, vertical pro-set, run and shoot - all do better than bledsoe.
-
a quick addendum:
Bledsoe's yards per pass attempt percentage in 7 playoff games: a woeful 5.3, with 6 tds, 12 ints, and a 49.9 completion rate.
Kelly’s is 7.1 in 17 games.
-
Many feel that the most important stat to measure a qb's performance is yards per pass attempt. I've cobbled together a bunch of stats for a lot of qbs, starting with a comparison of Kelly’s 11-year nfl career and Bledsoe’s 11 years so far in the league. Following this is a list of the ypa stats for qb luminaries of the past 15 years or so. I’m now concluding that Bledsoe may well be the most overrated qb of all time (especially considering the plethora of good receivers he’s played with - Glenn, Coates, Moulds, Price).
Kelly – yards per pass attempt - career
1986 7.5
1987 6.7
1988 7.5
1989 8.0
1990 8.2
1991 8.1
1992 7.5
1993 7.2
1994 7.0
1995 6.8
1996 7.4
lifetime – 7.4
Bledsoe – yards per pass attempt - career
1993 5.8
1994 6.6
1995 5.5
1996 6.6
1997 7.1
1998 7.6
1999 6.6
2000 6.2
2001 6.1
2002 7.1
2003 6.1
lifetime – 6.6
Also, here are some other lifetime stats of qb luminaries:
Steve Young– 8.0
Brett Favre – 7.1
Payton Manning – 7.4
Troy Aikman – 7.0
John Elway – 7.1
Joe Montana 7.5
Vinnie Testaverde – 6.9
Kurt Warner – 8.6
Warren Moon – 7.2
Dan Marino – 7.3
Steve McNair – 7.1
Chris Chandler – 7.1
Randall Cunningham – 7.0
Jeff Hostetler – 7.0
Phil Simms – 7.0
Boomer Esiason – 7.3
Doug Flutie – 6.9
Jim Everett – 7.1
Dave Krieg – 7.2
Bernie Kosar – 6.9
Rich Gannon – 6.8
Jeff George – 7.0
Mark Brunell – 7.1
Jeff Garcia – 7.0
Daunte Culpepper – 7.5
Donovan McNabb has a 6.2 ypa lifetime average, but he has obvious attributes that the statue does not possess – 2239 rushing yards for a 6.4 ypc average in 5 seasons and 17 rushing tds. Plus he’s not easy at all to sack.
Indeed, the qb most similar to Bledsoe is Kerry Collins, who has a 6.6 lifetime ypa number. He’s a very similar player as well.
-
you've got to be kidding about clements. he's been spectacular in both games, and except for the fact that possible future hall of famer jimmy smith made a sensational catch on a prayer of a throw, nothing of any consequence has been completed against him
-
whoops - this post was addressed to dc sabres statement about clements.
-
-
Dave,
I really do appreciate your positive take on yesterdays loss and I can only make this comment on what you have written.
Why in gods name was Clements trying for the pick on a 4th down play. If he gets the pick, the Bills have the ball 40 yards further down the field then they would have if he just knocks the pass down.
Then assuming the worst case scenario, a fumbled snap, its at the Jags 30 yeard line and not on our 30.
Its just common sense, on 4th down, knock the damm ball down and gain the yardage back from where the original line of scrimmage is. This is basic Pop Warner football tactics, if nothing else, Clements should get his ass chewed bigtime for this selfish showboat attempt.
Now to try and put a positive spin on this, maybe he'll simply lean from this mistake and the next time the situation comes up, just knock down the damm ball.
my positive spin on it is that he had flawless single coverage on one of the best receivers in the nfl over the last decade. smith made a great, great play. give smith some credit - he's a possible hall of famer for a reason.
-
sorry - i meant to say they'll end up at worst 1-2. that's hardly insurmountable.
-
just as an aside, in 1996, after the bills beat the pats to put the pats at 0-2, a patsies friend of mine called me to tell me that after watching the first two games (both pats losses), he was thrilled with their play and figured they were a playoff team. and he's more of a pessimist than an optimist.
as well, in 1998, the bills started out 0-3, but played very well in their third loss until the very end against the rams, who pulled out a weird victory.
oh yeah - the cowboys started out 0-2 in 93 and finished 12-4, and the ravens started out 1-4 in 00, and the oilers with buddy ryan as dc started out 1-4 in 93 and won their last 11 regular season games.
my point is, it's the first freakin' game. there are 15 more. and as for yesterday's game, they lost because of an inexcusable holding penalty on villareal, which was strange in and of itself because it was the first holding call all game on either line. go figure. if that doesn't get called, the game is over. (as for blaming the d, come on - you give a team 4 downs to work with instead of 3, chances are that they'll make a play or two, which the jags did.) the bills absolutely dominated the game and looked good in doing so.
at any rate, there are so many things they did better yesterday than last year. they were ballhawking, and while you can attack clements for going for the int on the 4th down play, it's about freakin' time we made some ints. he's not going to win all of those battles, but i feel a whole lot better knowing that we have a secondary aiming to get picks. and a safety intercepted a ball for the first time since the fifth game of the 01 season! that's reason enough to celebrate. bottom line: the secondary is really good.
the defensive line and the lbs are very good, with the only weakness being a lack of ability to get DT penetration on passing plays. they completely shut down a team that's probably a 9-10 win team. by the way, the bills gave up the second fewest yards of any team yesterday, and would have given up the fewest if villareal hadn't been called for holding.
as for the offense, yes, they need to make more big plays. but people are forgetting something. many people across the country have been saying that the jags defense had become one of the best in the league late last season, and people are expecting great things from them. the point is, it's not easy to move against them.
as well, when the bills played the jags last year, they ran poorly the entire game ( henry - 21 carries, 26 yards). they started out poorly yesterday, but by the second quarter made the right adjustments and averaged 4+ yds/carry for the rest of the game. that's uptick was really something, and something that didn't occur last year. they didn't give up on the run at all, and made it work for them.
as for bledsoe, he played very, very well. he made no mistakes, was accurate, and made very good decisions (i.e., eating the ball instead of the sure pick in the end zone if he had tried to hit shelton).
honestly, my only complaint about yesterday is that the sort of offense the bills are running needs to incorporate big plays. given today's nfl, when o-lines are put together at the last minute, you can't expect a team to sustain 13-15 play drives without mistakes. they always seem to happen, and good-looking drives stall at 9-10 plays. the philosophy guarantees ball control but not many points, and that means that opponents will always be in the game (like yesterday).
the raiders aren't that good, and the bills should have a decent chance at beating them. and even if they lose, they'll have a bye before facing a pats team in week 4 that's not as good as many think. i sincerely believe that after three games, they'
-
Damn, I'd have liked to have seen that. But I missed the 1sthalf:-(
Wow Edge sure looked like he was all the way back last night. I think him and McGahee run with similar patient styles, always looking for the cutback and not really attacking the LOS until they've picked their spot. I'd sure like to see Willis find his explosiveness sometime this season, like EJames apparently has.
Cya
Gerry - hey there. it was indeed a mirror image of the final game of last season, and you're right, williams and adams aren't penetrators. i guess they'll have to blitz some more.
re greggo and ted w, i've thought about that many a time. if anyone needs any proof of his doctrinaire incompetence, his "no fat guys" blather is the best evidence there is. i still can't believe they got rid of ted. he goes to chicago, the bears go 13-3, and urlacher looks awesome. he gets hurt the next year, and the bears can't stop anyone. then he goes to the pats, and ends up being arguably the best player in the super bowl.
i have NEVER forgiven williams for that, and that's how he got off on the wrong foot with me (alongside picking the execrable RJ over the at-least competent Flutie).
-
simon - one of my closest friends is a fanatical pats fan, and he's been issuing dire warnings all preseason about the fundamental inability of traylor and wilfork to play the 2-gap. he figured they'd be giving up 5 yards/carry, which in turn would lead to a lot of defeats. well, he's right - this is the 2002 version of the pats, and their 2 gap guys were thrown around like rag dolls. they certainly looked like that last night, and they were flat out lucky to win. they should have lost by 7 points or more.
-
I don't agree with that article at all. The running game and passing game are so intertwined, it's hard to separate them. The guy pulls out a few stats to make himself feel better, but stats don't tell the whole story.
Questions: He looks at yards per catch. To me, yards per catch is directly related to a strong running game because if you have a strong running game, the defense can't drop as many guys into coverage. Typically, I think that teams that force a defence to stack the line will fare better in the yards per catch area.
Not only that, he's only statistically looking at yards per catch and yards per carry. Those are such small parts of the overall picture, it leaves his arguments open to question.
Super Bowl winners over the past 10 years or so with "star" running backs:
1. St. Louis
2. Denver
3. Dallas
4. Baltimore
Just to name a few.
I don't think the guy has his head on straight.
He doesn't use yards per catch as a statistic - he uses yards per passing attempt, which is far different (and actually quite a good indicator of a team's fortunes).
-
yards per pass attempt-the all important stat
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
wow, lori, great post!! i'm sorry i read it so long after it was posted. i can't cover everything, but i will quickly say that bledsoe has played with a lot of WRs over the years with a proven ability to make big plays deep - glenn, who is incredibly quick, shawn jefferson, moulds, and price. plus, vincent brisby was an ok player too. as for TEs/RBs, well, the niners passed a lot to TEs and RBs too (roger craig had over 100 catches 1 year). also, another thing that gets factored in his accuracy, and in today's nfl, bledsoe's stats show that he's not particularly accurate using completion percentage (of course, he's much better than qbs in the 60s and 70s). and anecdotally, i've watched bledsoe his entire career and always felt that he was really inaccurate on the the deep throws. strangely enough, the year that he seemed to overcome this shortcoming was his first year with the bills (02), where he looked terrific on the deep throws. anyway, a lot of things factor into the equation, but it is still the case that bledsoe is at the bottom of the heap, so to speak, and it's not like he's played on teams with poor receiving talent. it's precisely the opposite, actually.