dave mcbride
-
Posts
23,159 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by dave mcbride
-
-
Just now, Thrivefourfive said:
Pretty much sums up why the Bills can’t beat the Chiefs. They always have someone better than our best.Our best is josh allen, and he left the field with under 2 minutes to go and his kicker in position to make a kick that is usually made that would equal Mahomes’s output. He had no control over the fact that our kicker — who is stilll weirdly on the team after going 2 for 5 in the postseason — had the yips.
-
27 minutes ago, alg said:
My enduring mental pic of Dawkins will be (after telling the world Buffalo could not lose at home) of stepping on Josh and killing a Shakir TD.
I doubt I'm the only one who noticed.
Did you notice the otherwise amazing game he played on the 60+ other snaps? If you didn’t, the game is a available on youtube and you’ll see. He had a great season last year and dumping a left tackle in his prime is about the dumbest thing a team can do.
Also, on that one play, he was facing the 2023 version of aaron donald (chris jones), and it’s not as if he got destroyed. He was up against the best d-lineman in the league on a money play, and it is what it is.
-
2
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Beck Water said:
by the drafting team....this tweet implies therefore they are not "hits", but, that may not reflect each player's actual career or contributions
Example: 2000 draft
1st round WR
Peter Warrick (#4) -> played 5 years for Cincy, 1 year FA contract with Seattle
Plaxico Burress (#8) -> played 5 years for Pittsburgh, signed a 6 year $25M contract with NYG, big $$ for that time
Neither signed a 2nd contract with their drafting team, so both aren't "hits" by the criteria of this tweet
But Warrick's best year was 79 catches 819 yds and his FA deal was his last year in the league
Burress had 4 - 1000+ yds seasons and finished his "careerus interruptus" with 8500 yds and 553 receptions
Very different career trajectories
I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, but it might be similar for other positions too outside of QB (that is, no team is letting a good QB get away).
-
7 minutes ago, Logic said:
Yeah.
The other problem is that the Bills likely aren't the only team that doesn't have 28 first round grades on players this year, so why would trading all the way back to 28 be particularly attractive to anyone?Yup.
-
7 minutes ago, Logic said:
Yep. Only way I can see it not happening is if the Bills simply try their hardest and fail, and some team feels as strongly about Odunze as the Bills do and takes him rather than trading back. It always takes two to tango. Bills can try 'til they're blue in the face, but they can't force anyone to trade with them.They also don't have a whole lot to give. That's the problem.
-
1
-
-
57 minutes ago, Low Positive said:
Oh. My.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:
I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?
Here's the more technical definition of the acronym:
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:
He’s the guy I’m locked on. I fear I’m not the only one. He looks like a guy who’s humble enough to hang around a long time and not be a problem, while being a top 10 WR. That’s a rare RARE combo. I kinda feel like this class is going to be one where the top guys might not be all world and there are some guys that really excel drafted later. I don’t have the time to break down all the guys and try to pick my sleepers, but if you don’t land Odunze, which will take a massive trade up, I don’t think the value presents to take one of the tier 3 guys at 28. I know a lot of people don’t want to hear it, but barring a big trade up, or someone taking a really unexpected fall (possible, if you look at the year we traded for Diggs, my #1 WR, Lamb fell to 17), then I won’t be shocked if we go back in the draft. Also wouldn’t be shocked if they caught a stud on D that fell down the board a bit and they went that direction. I know the board will melt down, but an impact CB, S or DL would make this team more complete and better suited to compete for a title. The DL we have is not good enough unless Von is fully back and even if so, he’s probably in his last year here. Then Groot has be signed to more than he’s producing or be replaced, so DE/Edge, whatever you call it, also needs talent added.
Big thing to take away, if they don’t start getting impact from the early round guys, this team will always be a bridesmaid and Allen will always be looked at as the QB that “can’t win it all”, which is complete bull####, but that’s the story until he does.
Then there’s Julio Jones.. that worked out and ATL should have a title with him were it not for their own collapse.
I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced.
-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Have more modern papers looking at more modern data found anything different? The answer of course is that they have not. They've universally found the same thing.
Massey and Thaler themselves updated that paper in 2013 and found that the same biases towards overconfidence continue. FiveThirtyEight did a study in 2016. Again, much the same thing. The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective. It goes on and on. This has been a busy area for analysis and there just hasn't been much disagreement in modern studies. Teams have adjusted their behavior a bit due to analytics, but they're still making the same mistakes.
The Pats aren't relevant here. Massey-Thaler (and all the rest) don't say that if you don't make massive trade-ups you will have excellent drafts. Since teams follow this strategy in overwhelming numbers, the idea is ridiculous. What they say is that if you don't follow their advice you are very likely to do worse than you would have. Not that if you do follow their advice you're guaranteed to draft very well.
Teams are better evaluators now? Based on what? That's is at best very questionable. The draft isn't a crapshoot. But it really is still very difficult to predict who'll do well in pro football.
Where's all the data that these great evaluators of today have raised the levels of success in first-rounders over the years since Massey-Thaler?
The 538 analysis covers players drafted in 1990 or later and who retired before 2013, so that doesn't really refute my point. And it says this: "No surprises here: The higher the draft pick, the longer a player will stick around in the NFL. First-rounders last a year longer than second-rounders, and the same goes for second-rounders compared with third-rounders. The gaps between rounds narrow slightly in the latter half of the draft, but a seventh-round pick like Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick of the NFL draft, can expect a career just under half as long as the average first-rounder. This is evidence that teams are getting better talent in earlier rounds."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-tell-how-good-nfl-teams-are-at-the-draft/
-
1 hour ago, LEBills said:
Nothing directly Bills related today
https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-wednesday.phpThought this was interesting:
'Over the course of the draft process, there have been more frequent reports about some teams grading out LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers higher than Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That definitely is the case; I know sources with multiple teams that said their franchises have Nabers over Harrison.
One AFC director of player personnel told WalterFootball.com:
Nabers’ tape is more impressive than Harrison’s …. We have a blue – elite – grade on Nabers with Harrison in gold. We think Harrison could get to blue as a pro, but right now, Nabers is the only receiver we have in blue.
While Nabers has some teams rating him ahead of Harrison, one thing going for Harrison is there are teams that have some character concerns with Nabers. Harrison did not come up with character concerns. Sources from multiple teams with top-10 picks said they had character marks for Nabers. That being said, they said the character was not bad enough to cause them to pass on him based on the questions or remove him from their draft board. Thus, Nabers looks like a near lock for the top six of the 2024 NFL Draft.'
-
10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Sammy Watkins is absolutely a data point they've looked at. They'd be stupid not to, and they're not stupid.
Is it one of the main things they're looking at, no, almost certainly not, but the likelihood of top ten receivers succeeding in justifying their draft spots completely is decent, but far from great. Same was true back when we traded up for Sammy. Which means that drafting a receiver high is a very reasonable move, but giving up a lot of valuable draft picks to do so is really really not.
Sammy is part of the the phenomenon that Massey and Thaler reported on, that GMs consistently over-rate their ability to correctly know who to draft, and that inability to correctly calculate risks leads them to take risks that are stupid, specifically by giving up high round picks to move up to pick one guy. What they found is that moving up a bit doesn't seriously harm your odds, but that big move-ups should not be undertaken, as they significantly reduced the odds of draft success.
The way to maximize your draft success is to maximize the number of darts you can throw, particularly with valuable big-time picks. There is an exception, trading way up for a possible franchise QB are worth doing because your odds of teams success without a franchise QB are so low. The same can't be said for other positions.
And those guys are very very smart, they're not fans in Mom's basement. Thaler has won a Nobel Prize in behavioral economics, which is precisely the area they're looking at in this draft study. And all the studies - all of them - say the same. Drafting is too difficult. But these guys spend so much time studying and preparing and strategizing and discussing, that there tends to be a sense that with so much prep they gain more control. And you don't. These guys, NFL GMs, who know way more than the rest of us, still don't do well enough at picking to make really big trade-ups a good idea.
That paper is from 2005 and based on data mostly from the 1980s/1990s, when some GMs were still consulting Street and Smith's to figure out who to take in the third round and/or spending top five picks on running backs. Teams have a LOT more resources now and are generally better evaluators than they were then. No one is trading an entire draft for Ricky Williams. And as for the model recently, just look at the Pats - they followed the Massey/Thaler advice yet from 2014-2023, yet their hordes of draft picks mostly resulted in a vast wasteland. Has anyone tried to replicate their analysis for this analytics-dominant era? I honestly suspect that the results will not be replicated.
-
3
-
-
5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
Brandin Cooks has also had a very good career.
Also of note - in the year prior to this time range, 2013, De’andre Hopkins went at 27.
-
6 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
Whiiiich is why I'd rather trade the first for him than trade up!
My preference in order:
- Trade Down
- Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone)
- Stay put and draft BPA
In no circumstance to I trust Beane's ability to pick the right guy after trading the farm to move up, and I just don't think a guy like Thomas is worth it.
I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.
-
4
-
1
-
11 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing
Aiyuk was a second team all pro last season. The pro bowl is meaningless in comparison. Also, DJ Moore is phenomenal. Pro bowl appearances are about the stupidest measuring stick of all.
-
5
-
9
-
-
2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
As the GM of the Dolphins in the TSW v3.0 Mock there is no F-ing way I am taking Worthy even though I am fully aware they might actually be that dumb on draft night. So I definitely agree he is a legit option at 21 on draft night because McDaniel is a buffoon who has no clue how to build a football team. Personally, I think McDaniel is fired after this year as I don't see them making playoffs. Teams like Bengals, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Colts and some others all have a legit shot at being better this year and being or challenging to be a playoff team. Then you still got Chiefs, Bills, Houston, Ravens, Jags, etc.
Miami barely made it last year and choked the division away with a stronger roster than they will have this year. So to use a first round pick on a guy who will be penciled in as your WR3 this year with Hill and Waddle there would be just stupid unless they are trading one of Hill or Waddle. They are so bad in the trenches, and its going to be their achilles heal this year.
None of this is about Worthy who I think will go first round. Its about the Dolphins make up of their team and how taking Worthy for them is a Madden team building move, not an NFL team building move that will probably get this regime fired a year from now when they go down as the fastest team in history to not make the playoffs.
McDaniel is a lot smarter than you give him credit for.
-
3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions.
I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.
Gonna push back a little. A little better than average qb (if you don’t have one) is worth ten times more than an elite receiver/DE/CB/LT. It’s just such a far more important position, and it’s not even arguable. Hence you might want to factor that into your grades.
5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.
I like Simms, but he LOVED Zach Wilson. I do get it — we’ve all been wrong about prospects (Sam Darnold on my end).
-
-
26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory).
I don't *think* this will happen, but given the Vikings overall roster, which is pretty good, I could see them possibly going 10-7 and I think it's in the realm of possibility that the Bills end up in the same place. I guess all I'm saying is that I wouldn't assume 100 percent that the Vikings will be bad and that their pick will be better. Darnold isn't great, but he's not horrible and he's definitely an upgrade over what they had after Cousins went down last season. Darnold went 4-2 with Carolina in 2022 on a team with a pretty bad roster overall. It is a tough division, though.
-
1
-
1
-
-
https://theathletic.com/5431528/2024/04/23/nfl-draft-2024-confidential-nabers-harrison-williams/
Tons and tons of interesting insights/comments from coaches across the league. Long piece and worth your time.
-
1
-
1
-
2
-
-
9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
yea but how shaq was handled was certainly the exception not the ruleDon’t get me wrong - a shoulder injury that’s non-crippling doesn’t phase me.
-
12 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:
This feels like a spot the bills can move back to. Hopefully some players fall that washington wants.
If thomas has character concerns and a shoulder injury he probably falls a little. Would love to see the bills move back and have three 2's.
Thomas is going in the first round. Do not risk it.
-
Just now, GunnerBill said:
Yea I think Von is done.
Jeremiah has Kneeland as his 45th best player. I don't profess to know anything. Why do you think he sucks?
-
Also, listening to Adunze, I can see why teams love him. He comes across as pretty sharp -- like, waaay smarter than your average NFL receiver:
-
3
-
1
-
-
Lots of good stuff from Albert Breer of SI: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/022/takeaways-nfl-draft-latest-buzz-rumors-medicals
"• Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year."
Shades of Shaq Lawson in 2016?
-
5
-
Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
There are zero trades in Jeremiah’s draft, which is ridiculous and an indicator to me that a person doesn’t have the courage of his own convictions. It is a day before the draft — project trades, which ALWAYS happen.