dave mcbride
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Posts posted by dave mcbride
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Anyone who's ever been used car shopping knows to look up the car's blue book value in trying to gauge the market price. Invariably, when you actually get to the dealers' lots, you find a wide disparity between blue book value and market value (the value that the dealer will buy the car from you or will sell the car to you)
Folks, you have just witnessed our own version of blue book in the failed Travis Henry trade. Henry's blue book value, as a multiple 1,300 yard rusher and Pro-Bowler was anywhere between a low first rounder and a second rounder.
Henry's real market value was around a 4th-5th round, based on his known downsides.
Donahoe had to bridge the two and strike a deal that would net the Bills something closer to blue book.
The side chair prognosticators who are railing on TD for not pulling the trigger are living in a fantasy world, where it's not their money on the line.
The reality is that both Henry and Shelton are damaged goods, with only real interest coming from Arizona & Buffalo.
You would figure that if Jonas Jennings was able to get a $10 mil + signing bonus, a quality left tackle earning $3mil/year would jump off a team's trade board in a heartbeat. Oddly, only Bills remained in contention for Shelton's services and only offering Henry, for whom there was little quality demand in an off-season filled with RB moves.
One also has to wonder why the only other reported interest in Shelton came from Chicago, who needed to replace Mike Gandy who signed with..... You can draw your own conclusion if Chicago didn't think that Shelton was a worthy enough successor to Gandy to trade draft picks.
Then we ask why didn't TD just trade one malcontent for another?
My guess is that there is no guarantee that Shelton will make the starting roster, and paying $3mil to a backup is a tall order for TD. That's why he would have rather traded Henry for Philly's 3rd rounder (if that trade was available to him)
So there you have it.
The market has spoken. Henry is worth bubkus.
But he's a steal in your blue book.
great post, gerry. not to crow or anything, but i did say a while back that i'd be shocked if the bills got anything higher than a 4th for him (i figured he was worth about a 6th). for once in my life, i was right!! woo hoo!
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Nod, generally I agree with you, but some of your arguments are a little silly...are you related to TD in some way? You say people shoudn't criticize the Bills draft, but then cast aspersions that the Patriots had a bad draft. I like TD, but his record is not even in the same ballpark as Bellichek and Pioli's.
Like you said yourself, teams draft with a plan in mind, plans that we as fans might not always be privy to. But to suggest that anyone who questions them, or criticizes them, or wonders out loud wtf they are doing, is idiotic. This is a spectator sport. The NFL allows the draft to be aired for a reason...they want to keep fans interested in the leauge. Why take such great offense with other fans if they don't agree with your "never question the king" dogma....I have been a Bills fan for nearly 40 years, and sometimes questioning the men in charge is a hell of a lot more entertaining than the product on the field.
In my life as a Bills fan, the folks in charge at One Bills Drive have never given me cause to feel like they have it all figured out.
amen.
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aside from terrence mcgee, the bills haven't landed any impact players in the donohoe era on the second day.
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I appreciate your sentiments rt, I really do. But, every team makes these decisions every year. You could apply your argument to so many ex-Bills, that is just the way the game is played today: gear up for this season, but always keep an eye on next season!
MARK VI is right. As soon as Moulds restructured his contract after the season, I had the feeling that this would be his last year in Bills colors. It happens on every team. It already happened with Bledsoe. It is kind of sad for fans (provided they like the player!), but I think, more and more, the players seem to realize when their days are numbered with a team. Don't feel too sorry for them, they and the owners are out to make as much money for themselves as they can. Even if they are "criminally underpaid" (think TO
) they are still making a damn good living. Many of us get treated far worse at our jobs, for far far less money.....fair enough, but i think moulds' fate will be decided this year on the football field -- meaning, if he has a great year, there's a very strong chance he'll be back in 06.
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it's obviously too early to tell, but there are a lot of similarities ...
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don't you realize that mike "feet of stone" williams is a far better player than eric "on-his-way-to-about-800-career-receptions" moulds?
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Because of Miami's athletic depth, you often see total jailbreaks on returns, especially at home. That's the one area where they were still dominant last year, with Hester as the main return weapon and Roscoe as option 1b. In the NFL, you gotta' be able to shed a would-be tackler now and then. Roscoe is a very poor man's version of Santana Moss. Nowhere near the receiver and not as good in the return game.
sooner or later, they'll actually realize that you know what you're talking about (although you've still gotta fess up to being wrong about antoine winfield!!).
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I'm a 'Canes fan, I didn't like Roscoe. He is small, plays small, a miniscule target who drops some easy passes and hasn't any power at all. A heavy breath will knock him to the ground. A couple times, I thought he was killed dead on the field. He lived, but he missed time. The 'Canes are really going thru a down time, simialar to the early 90's, when they can't find good receivers who can actually catch the ball, otherwise Roscoe wouldn't have played much.
He became to me, a symbol of the decline of the program this year and I was so looking forward to his graduation. This pick is bad, but consistent with Donahoe's history of drafting small receivers with limited upside like Josh Reed and Troy Edwards. He needs to stay away from those guys and stick more to the dymamic talents like Lee Evans. TD really scared me the other day when he was singing the praises of Josh Reed, who he claimed to have drafted to be a #3 receiver. He spent a very early second rounder on Reed in a decent draft year.
The only positives are the fact that it's a dogass draft, and that they didn't trade Travis Henry to draft ROSCOE!
thank you for speaking sense, badol.
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Yeah, right.
Birk played 7 games and started none of them
Rivera never played his rookie year
Kreutz played in 9 games and started 1
So, I did your homework and you're full of crap, but hey - thanks for playing! Now go to the 24 hour batting cage and get some swings in! Don't forget to wear your softball pants.
i love this sight and am deeply appreciative of what you do, sds, but what's up with these petty, unbecoming insults?
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Yeah, right.
Birk played 7 games and started none of them
Rivera never played his rookie year
Kreutz played in 9 games and started 1
So, I did your homework and you're full of crap, but hey - thanks for playing! Now go to the 24 hour batting cage and get some swings in! Don't forget to wear your softball pants.
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While I am just as curious about these picks as some of you are - I don't understand the analysis that says, "we didn't pick a left tackle in the 2nd round therefore we will suck this year."
Do 2nd round OLineman really tip the scales between 6-10 and 10-6?
Perhaps there is concern a year or two out from now, but I don't see how NOT drafting a new LT or C makes that much of a difference THIS year.
someone else mentioned koppen and smith (steelers), but i'd add dermontti dawson and jason fabini, to name just a couple (there are many, many others). people can offer all kinds of sophistry defending the parrish pick, but i can't see it as anything other than lousy judgement. hopefully, i'll be wrong, as i have been many times before. but i do know that the center and lt position on the bills has been a cancer since wolford left after 92 and hull retired after 96.
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yeah, but 30 other teams could have signed him as well, and you can bet there would have been a lot of suitors because they wouldn't have had to inherit his miami contract. if that had happened, the chiefs' chances of obtaining him would have been less than even.
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brandon, what are you thinking?? surtain is a better than average cb who will give them up to 3 good years as a starter. that's more than you can say for most mid-round 2nd rounders. given how horrible their secondary has been, the chiefs need a guy who can actually play well, not a guy who might have the potential to play well a year or two from now. great move by the chiefs, i say, who are not in cap trouble.
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based on what people i know (and trust) have told me in the past, i'm pretty sure it's the former, but to be honest, i'm not completely sure. i just googled the subject, and the stuff i've come up with is pretty vague and pretty much pr pieces on nfl-related/sponsored websites. i'll ask around among people i know ...
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According to his NFL Players Bio the year in which he started all 16 games was 2002 in which he started every game at the LDT position and collected 68 tackles (40 solo), 2.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and 20 QB pressures; also scored first career TD on fumble recovery in end zone at Min. (9/15).
If you ask me that was a pretty good year for a 2nd year player.
with all due respect, i watched edwards in 02, and i thought he was horrible. ricky williams running wild comes to mind ...
Difference between Blue Book and Market Value
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
i disagree, and here's why. even good rbs have an extremely short shelf life as a feature back in the nfl, with guys like curtis martin truly exceptional. the best backs have about 4 to 5 good years at most, and then decline sets in - a loss of half a step, nagging injuries, etc. some are good for 7-8 years (marshall faulk), but most start to hit the skids after year five. given that, why take a guy who has one more good year (according to this logic) before decline sets in? it almost always does, and henry not only was a horse at tennessee, racking up lots of carries, but has been nicked up in 3 of his 4 nfl seasons (with the injuries this past season being the worst). if i'm an opposing gm looking at henry, the thing that strikes me the most is the mileage on his treads. i'd conclude that he doesn't have much left at all as a top shelf back. same goes for edgerrin james, by the way.