Ed_Formerly_of_Roch
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Posts posted by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch
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53 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:
My thoughts also...but the discount for DT on YTTV is the 16th, but it doesn't give a time like midnight or something else.
OK you're right, it does expire the 16th, I was thinking it expired on Tuesday the 14th. In that case no idea on the release.
Kind of puzzling as to why they don't advertise the day way ahead to attract viewers unless the schedule is so complicated with last minute tweaks that they themselves don't know when it will be ready for release until only a few days prior??
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I think it's going to be the 16th only because the deadline to get $100 off ST from YTTV expires on the 14th.
Last year the Bills were on national TV in some form about 11 or 12 times out of 17. If I had known that was the case prior, I may not have bothered to order ST as could have found a way to watch the few other games and many others for many different teams could have done the same and not subscribed. For that reason I'm assuming the schedule will be after the 14th, on the 16th.
Plus I think if it was the 9th, by now we'd have heard about it.
OK just read Fox Sports states the 9th, but don't know if that's also just a guess on their part?
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The odds of Tua making it through another full season without getting hurt are not in his favor IMO based on his history.
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2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:
Why the hate on Johnson? Everyone has him as a cut. He ran hard last year. His pass protection was fine and he has a low cap hit.
Why is everyone acting like he was Reggie Bush running backwards in mud? You have to have some experience there besides Cook.
I don't hate Johnson at all, I liked him. But I just feel that with Gore's background, the team may tend to take a chance on him more if he has a good looking camp and pre-season. Assuming Gore has a good camp, team may feel easier to sneak Johnson onto PS too.
Johnson played well last year and personally I was happy that the Bills re-signed him. But just feel a little bit like Gore may be one of these sneaky good players that somehow fell completely out of the draft, but shouldn't have. Or he could have fallen through for a good reason too, will see.
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Read article in BN Jones has 13 interceptions — five of which he returned for touchdowns?? That's more than many CB's ever have for TD's
See Claypool went to ND, he must not be dumb, just not always motivated it seems? As was pointed out, he hasn't ever had as good a QB situation as now so will see.
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Was reading article in todays BN that listed stats from Beanes draft class. I found it kind of interesting as in the past Beane often took people based on potential upside. Edmunds and Knox are a couple of names that come to mind. Even Allen is true of. Seems like his picks are more what can he do for me right away which likely reflects the fact that years back they more were drafting for long term future, but that has changed.
The average age of the first nine picks was 22.8 years (oldest of any Beane class) and the average games of college experience was 46.4 (most of any Beane class); the six-year averages entering this draft were 22.0 years and 39.8 games. UCF offensive tackle Tylan Grable’s 58 college games are the most of any Beane pick.
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See you left out RB, I think it may be a battle between Johnson and Gore Jr with Gore winning the battle based on pedigree.
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Would think there's also a succession plan as to who would be Kim's care taker and guardian if something happened to Terry. Maybe one of their other kids I'd assume. Also could be why Laura is taking a bigger role with Bills as at least one of the others could be busy with Kim. Hopefully Laura gets along very well with the 3 half siblings.
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7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:
A couple of years out?
LT- Dawkins
LG- McGovern
C- Van Pran
RG- Torrence
RT- Who knows (I think Spencer Brown gets transition tagged then is traded or gone)
The only thing that I could see different is they wait till around early Oct and see how Brown is looking. If playing at the same level as he was in 2023, they attempt to sign him to a 3 to 4 year deal then. Whether Brown agrees who knows? May again make a run during early off season or even after FA starts for a new contract. They probably should have the money next off season to get him signed if they so choose. Think if he's really good enough to warrant transition tag, they'd extend him.
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31 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:
Gabe still did it some. He had a TD last year that was vintage deep sideline stuff. His height and good hands, made up for less than top speed and average route running. But most of that success was Allen fitting it into TIGHT windows. That is what he can do that other QBs just can't - hit deep sideline windows with lasers. It would be even more deadly with a WR with hands, routes, and speed - a true boundary WR.
Yeah but seemed like for every one Davis would catch, he'd drop 2 more and by year end even Diggs was dropping some. Give me WR who can consistently catch the ball 15 to 20 yards downfield and think the offense will be much better overall.
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32 minutes ago, transient said:
The passing offense was worse in large part because in addition to Davis, Diggs also stopped catching half of the balls thrown his way.
Thinking about it more, for the Bills to take a $31 mil cap hit on Diggs, things must have been much worse internally than anyone knows. And think that may mostly be due to disconnect between Brady and Diggs. Diggs wanted to be the center of the offense, Brady wanted to spread things around including running more. Considering the emergence of Kincaid and Shakir, not a bad idea to do either. Once Diggs saw that he just went through the motions at the end of last year. Beginning to think off season discussion between Diggs and the team was that Diggs wasn't going to buy into that for the coming year either so they got rid of him, figuring addition by subtraction.
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14 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:
I'm talking anything over 20 yds, but to the sidelines and attacking downfield soft spots in zones, not just go routes. Allen can hit those pretty regularly. His go routes have been a little more hit or miss.
From what I know of Samuel's game, its short stuff and quickness. He has the long speed, but perhaps his ability to beat the jam, or route running or to track and catch the ball keeps him as more of a LOS guy.
A fast 40 helps you gain that down the field separation on a go route, but even better when coupled with good route running and ball tracking.
There were a number of guys with that profile, including Worthy, that the Bills didn't seem to like. Or they didn't think they needed that skill set, which gets back to the OP's topic - what is the philosophy and is it misguided?
In Gabe Davis rookie and 2nd year he was great at catching 20 yard sideline passes, then he seemed to have forgot how to catch the ball. Don't think you need the speed of Worthy for that, just someone with good hands which everything written about Coleman says he should excel there. Samuel can provide enough speed if/when needed.
As to the point of what is the philosophy, IMO what is should be is keep the chains moving which was something the Bills were good at prior to the last season and a half. Definitely don't feel the team is misaligned with Allen as don't think the extra speed helps moving the chains nearly as much as just simply catching the ball.
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1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:
Need to have the threat of the home run, or even deep post/out to keep Defenses honest. That involves WRs with the talent to do it, which we have none of now. We will not threaten outside the numbers down the field and probably only down the middle deep on seams to Kincaid. It's going to be all underneath stuff and ball control. I just think that wastes one of Josh's supreme talents. He'll never be Brady, he's a gunslinger.
The schematic mismatch with his HC is becoming painfully obvious.
If one of Josh's talents is throwing long passes, then this team is in trouble because from what I've seen that's on of the things he does worst at. 20 yard passes, maybe 25 to 30 on occasion he's good. But long passes he's almost always way long or way short.
When you actually calculate the difference between Worthy's time to run 40 yards down field and say Curtis Samuel it's less than 1 yard In other words when Worthy is down field 40 yards Samuel would be just beyond 39 yards. So do you actually believe that little difference is going to keep a defense honest or not?? If Samuel can't keep the defense honest, doubt someone as fast as Worthy would either. Add to that Allen is all over the map on deep throws.
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7 hours ago, skibum said:
Literally ever single team in the NFL can say the same exact thing. You just can't grade a draft until the kids play ball.
The OP wasn't saying they are great players, his point was he filled in many holes, if half turn out to be good, it's a good draft.
Conversely adding a 2nd rookie WR would just hamper the development of both. Rookies need more TLC, trying to split between two would more likely end up at the end of the year with not knowing what the team has in either.
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9 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?
What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just thWhy not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.
As has been stated by others the success rate of long passes is fairly low to start with. I can recall the past year long passes by Allen that were both 5 yards over thrown and just as many under thrown. The margin of error on long passes is just small, too many things can go wrong then add the weather on top of it all. Maybe a QB like Tua needs to stretch the field as he doesn't have the arm strength to thread the needle and the needed fastball on a 20 yard completion, but Allen does.
I can recall in Gabe Davis rookie year and 2nd year, Allen throwing sideline completions to him on a regular basis, but for whatever reason by his 3rd season, they became drops. That's what we need back again the 20 yard completions, if you complete one long pass every other week on average, you're doing good.
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1 minute ago, Einstein said:
It’s how I feel at the moment but I do need to reevaluate in a few weeks. I’m miserable right now with work stress and it may be clouding my judgment.
Well at least you're sitting in first class. No where else do you get actual silverware! It can't be that bad!
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14 hours ago, Einstein said:
I mean, the actual Tyreek Hill was passed over 32 times in 4 different rounds. So the fact that 27 teams passed over him doesn’t mean much to me.
That being said, I really didn’t want Worthy either. I just don’t want us to hand KC who they want.
Sounds like a real: Cut off my nose to spite my face mentality!
In the first ten minutes, many in the media were shocked, but also many articles stated once you actually think about it, it was very good move by the Bills, They got who they wanted and got extra picks.
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4 hours ago, Einstein said:
I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion.
A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did.
A similar one was down for Oakland I believe.
Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list.Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate.
Yes but you're comparing what the Bills did against what I'd label a semi professional and who also does it for a living. I wouldn't be shocked if Kiper or McShay have a staff themselves and even if they don't the amount of time they invest in this is likely as much as many scouts do. It is their full time profession and have doors opened for them to gather info that very likely no poster here come close to.
So the fact that Kiper of McShay can do better doesn't do much of anything to prove that posters here can even come close to being as good.
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8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case. But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation. (B) You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter. I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.
It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew.
Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks. Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano. And, look, talent evaluation is hard. Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft. Their hit rate isn’t high. Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good. They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge.
I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm. Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department. While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization.
So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn. Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me. Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews. I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals. Time will tell. But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.
Remember too, fan is short for fanatic, so consider then who you're dealing with.
Many people here wanted Beane to double down on Franklyn, he's an idiot for not taking him, but 31 other GM's did the same 3 times before Denver finally took him. I do find it interesting how every year certain players forecast to be picked high, drop and often keep dropping. All 32 teams for some reason know the same thing and value him equally except the fans and media.
The classic this weekend to me was how all the other GM's are trading up, but Beane is trading down, what's he thinking, the moron. News flash, for every GM that trades up there has to be another trading down.
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1 hour ago, JimBob2232 said:
How does this work - will he not take up a roster slot?
Patriots can dress an extra player.
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21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast. That we don’t place emphasis on speed. So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
The formula is simple: 40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.
For 4.2: 40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec
For 4.6: 40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec
So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6. Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats. But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.
For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks. And likely more if I gave it more thought. This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.
So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners. I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.
So now ask how many long passes are exactly on the money. I can recall Allen over throwing 5 yards and also under throwing him by 5 yards. So to me it's over rated IMO
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48 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:
Yeah, but all Beane has done is trade down. All these other GMs are going up to get players they think are worth it but obviously Beane sees something else that he's cool letting them take their pick from them. I just think it's weird. He could be a lot smarter than these other GMs. I'm not pretending to know more than Beane as an "armchair GM". I just found it interesting
I had to reread that. I thought you said "I love this prick" lol
No they aren't all moving up as for everyone that is moving up means another one is moving down.
Many articles prior to draft said overall a weak draft as players stayed in school because of NIL $$ ans there was s2nd reason that I don't recall. Think it may have been 6th year of eligibility due to COVID??
So Beane feels overall weak draft so move down. I'm traveling today so not paying close attention, but thought I saw a post that he picked up a 2025 pick, so maybe he feels next year will be stronger.
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24 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:
What I think is funny is, the are 32 GMs. A lot of teams are still making trades and moving up the board so obviously, they think there are good enough players there but Beane looks at them and just says "no, I'm good". You can have my pick". So, what is Beane seeing that these other teams aren't?
So if other teams are also moving up, that means others are also moving down. So Beane is doing the same as others
The only stupid thing around here are all the arm chair GMs who think they are smarter than people who do this for a living
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It is interesting how for everyone who has this itch, Franklin keeps dropping. So good no one here with the itch is making the actual picks. Also kind of says for everyone who may criticize Beane for not grabbing him, no other team has been interested in him yet either.
Top 5 QB and Top 5 WR salary cannot coexist on a SB team
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think have a top QB like Allen can make a WR who isn't considered top 10 look like he's all Pro. For those reasons I'm not as worried about the WR group as many here.
Recall what supposedly told Diggs when he first got here, just get open and catch the ball, I don't care about anything else. Can see that being the case this year again too. Now admittedly with a rookie , the knowing how to get open at the NFL level can be a bit tougher than he may think, may take some time whomever it was.