BCAS Baritone

From the PFF article "2024 NFL Draft: Five players who were held back by their college situations" https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-five-players-who-were-held-back-by-their-college-situations

Post draft Bruce Nolan, formerly of Buffalo Rumblings - appearing with Joe Marino on the Locked on Bills Podcast 33 WR Lad McConkey, Georgia - picked 34 by Chargers 60 S Cole Bishop, Utah - same as the Bills 95 WR Troy Franklin, Oregon - picked 102 by Broncos 128 CB T.J. Tampa, Iowa State - picked 130 by Ravens 141 C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia - same as Bills 160 RB Tyrone Tracy, Purdue - picked 166 by Giants 168 DT Mekhi Wingo, LSU - picked 189 by Lions 204 T Tylan Grable, UCF - same as the Bills 219 CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State - same as the Bills 221 DE Jalen Harrell, Michigan - picked 252 by Titans ============================= Post draft - Joe Marino, Locked on Bills 33 S Cooper DeJean, Iowa - picked 40 by Eagles 60 WR Roman Wilson, Michigan - picked 84 by Steelers 95 WR Javon Baker, UCF - picked 110 by Patriots 128 CB T.J. Tampa, Iowa State - picked 130 by Ravens 141 EDGE Austin Booker, Kansas - picked 144 by Bears 160 DT Mekhi Wingo, LSU - picked 189 by Lions 168 RB Kimai Vidal, Troy - picked 181 by Chargers 204 C Beaux Limmer, Arkansas - picked 217 by Rams 219 CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State - same as the Bills 221 TE Jaheim Bell, Florida State - picked 231 by Patriots

Well, if he can force a trade to KC to take Mahomes spot, then that would increase his chances of winning a Super Bowl. Other than that his chances are as good here as any place else. Maybe SF if they can keep that entire core together until then and beyond - but keeping that core together is extremely unlikely. Even with a cheap QB contract on the books.

I always liked what Al Davis said in a pre-Super Bowl interview. Do you believe in taking what the defense is giving you? "We take what we want"

I was listening to a podcast and they said short arms are actually better for a center, so you can get the snap done then get your arms in place quicker. The opposite of tackle, where long arms are a requirement.

He's frequently timed in-game as going over 20 mph, and did that in the gauntlet drill at the combine this year. That's pretty fast, and it's in pads and doing football moves (like making catches) at the same time. I doubt he ever shows up on a top-10 speedster list at the end of the year, but he isn't that far off. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fastest-player-top-2023-speeds/80dde018741ad620c97859e5

This one uses a combination of the PFF Big Board and my own evaluation of positional need. In general, I try to take the guy rated highest on their Big Board if it fills a position of need. Once all the needs are filled I sprinkle around a bit. I think the Bills need to come away with the following WR x 2 RB x 1 C x 1 S x 1 DT x 1 LB x 1 The rest based mostly on BPA Pick 33: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa - 8 on Big Board, taken 40 by Eagles (they have him listed as CB, but my plan is to put him at FS) Pick 60: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon - 29 on Big Board, taken 101 by Broncos Pick 95: LB Payton Willis, NC State - 30 on Big Board, taken 97 by Steelers Pick 128: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon - 65 on Big Board, taken 107 by Falcons Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia - 100 on Big Board, same as the Bills pick Pick 160: WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State - 80 on Big Board, taken 174 by Eagles Pick 168: RB Blake Watson, Memphis - 114 on Big Board, undrafted Pick 204: WR Brenden Rice, USC - 125 on Big Board, taken 209 by Chargers Pick 219: EDGE Xavier Thomas, Clemson - 93 on Big Board, undrafted Pick 221: G Javion Cohen, Miami - 194 on Big Board, undrafted Actual Bills Picks, and where they were on the PFF Big Board Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State - 41 on PFF Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah - 132 on PFF Pick 95: DT DeWayne Carter, Duke - 136 on PFF Pick 128: RB Ray Davis, Kentucky - 82 on PFF Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia - 100 on PFF Pick 160: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington - 261 on PFF Pick 168: DE Javon Solomon, Troy - 91 on PFF Pick 204: T Tylan Grable, UCF - Unranked on PFF Pick 219: CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State - 251 on PFF Pick 221: G Travis Clayton, International Player Pathway - Unranked on PFF

I'm not a draftnik, so for this exercise, I went with picks from Dane Brugler from the Athletic. I always kept the same position the Bills took, but picked the top guy at that position from Brugler's Beast article Pick 33: WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia (went pick 34 to Chargers) Pick 60: S Jaden Hicks, Washington State (went pick 133 to Chiefs (incidentally with the pick they got from the Bills)) Pick 95: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon (went pick 109 to Falcons) Pick 128: RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin (went pick 134 to Jets) Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia (Bills took the same guy) Pick 160: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington (Bills took the same guy) Pick 168: DE Gabriel Murphy, UCLA (undrafted) Pick 204: T Nathan Thomas, Louisana (went pick 233 to Dallas) Pick 219: CB Myles Harden, South Dakota (went pick 227 to Browns) Pick 221: G KT Leveston, Kansas State (went pick 254 to Rams)

I think one reason they focused on leadership and character so much in this draft is not because they expect these guys to come in and be instant leaders. But because they lost so much leadership this year, there's not nearly as much left in the locker room to take a guy that might be more of a head case and steer him in the right direction. If the locker room leadership has thinned out, better to take guys that you know will put in the work themselves and take responsibilities themselves. Once you've built that up again you have a better chance of channeling somebody that might be more of a hot head.

Yeah, I am a big time devotee of Matt Harmon and Reception Perception ever since he touted Allen Robinson before his breakout year. But everybody has a bias, and Matt's bias is in favor of guys getting open. Not a crazy bias to have when it comes to receivers. But it isn't the only thing to consider. And Matt's analysis can't take into consideration team fit. Almost every other guy people are touting here in this spot is a smaller receiver, either faster or shiftier. But we already have two guys in that mold - Samuel and Shakir. The need here is for a bigger receiver (i.e. a replacement for Gabe Davis, and preferably an upgrade). An upgrade that is making a couple million a year instead of 12 or 13 million a year. But as you also point out, Matt's analysis is of a point in time. Will this guy become better (or worse) over the next couple of years? Harmon can't say. He can show you the law of averages, but the law of averages says that QB's that have accuracy issues in college NEVER get more accurate in the pros. At least it used to say that until Josh Allen cam along. Now the consensus is that every big-armed QB with accuracy issues in college will definitely get more accurate in the pros, so you might as well make all of them first round picks.

Well, we know that the Bills had Top 30 meetings with Brian Thomas Troy Franklin Xavier Worthy and a private workout with Xavier Legette So they obviously gave serious consideration to those guys, and for whatever reason decided that they were OK with trading away the pick for Worthy and Legette. Beane indicated they never tried that hard to trade up for Thomas. So they seem to have come to a group conclusion that Coleman was their guy. You can't just say they saw "ooh big guy let's pick him" - they weighed everybody's pros and cons and said Coleman is the guy we want. Now we have to just hope they were right.

I don't think that is a fair evaluation of Coleman. The non-separating part is true, and obviously the biggest knock on Coleman. But I think his hands are better. We also don't know if he will do better on those option routes than Davis did. There are several all-time bloopers involving Gabe Davis over the years that you don't see from other receivers around the league. Maybe the problem really is Josh and not Gabe, or the OC and not Gabe, but at the moment I am leaning toward it's more Gabe's fault than the others. If those all-time bloopers turned into catches, then Gabe's name would be on the Wall in a few years. Also, Coleman's young age and relative lack of experience give him room to grow. I can't imagine he'll ever be Stefon Diggs in terms of route-running, but if he can be coached up to become an average separator, while still retaining his highlight reel catches, then we could have something special. Just being bigger than the CB standing next to you does help you win some of those contested catches. Other than the big 3 this year, every WR in the draft had something that made you say "yeah, he's good at that, but not so good at this". Some of those guys will get better at that second thing and become stars, and some will not get better at that second thing while also getting worse at the first thing and will be a bust. I've seen analysts that I respect say Coleman will be a stud, and also other analysts that I respect say he will be a bust. Which is also true of every WR drafted after the big 3. If we had a healthy and happy Stefon DIggs still on the roster I doubt we would have picked Coleman or anybody else at WR with our top pick. Like almost everybody on this board, I definitely wanted a double dip at WR, and I really am baffled that it never happened. So that part of the "meh" evaluation I agree with. But I've always maintained that the most important thing is to not have a weak link anywhere on the field. If your top 11 on both offense and defense are at least average at every position, you can still win a lot of games with that. But turn one of those into a below average guy, even if you also turn an average guy into a star, you will probably lose more than you win. Attacking the weak link is the surest path to victory.

One of the PFF talking heads said he thought Ray Davis was the 3rd RB for him. He was sixth RB on the PFF big board.

I think we are looking at special teamers. We've had one of the more expensive special teams group for a while, and that would be an easy place to get younger and cheaper.

3 time team captain. Supposed to have amazing bull rush, but not much otherwise in terms of moves.