Einstein

It’s how I feel at the moment but I do need to reevaluate in a few weeks. I’m miserable right now with work stress and it may be clouding my judgment.

You’re starting to get at where i’m coming from. NFL front offices don’t have “experts” in my opinion. Not in the sense that one can be an expert in chemistry, for example. Meaning, a static profession where there are rights/wrongs/factual data that is objective and doesn’t change largely depending on the opinion of each person you ask. For example: A neutral Oxygen atom has 8 protons, 8 valence electrons and 8 neutrons. There is no disagreeance among experts because the fact is static. Ask every Chemist expert and they will all say the same thing. This is not the same in football - you can ask 50 scouts how good a player is and they will have 50 different opinions. You can’t be an expert in that. Especially when you’re wrong 70% of the time. But i’m on a flight to India and no one wants to read us squabble, so you may have the last word. Goodnight and Go Bills!!!

Yes, by virtue of what football is, non-experts who spend considerable time doing their homework can guess at nearly the same rate that “experts” do. Keeping in mind that “experts” are just normal people like the non-experts, except due to connections they are able to be paid for it.

How many of Brandts prognostications failed as a percentage basis compared to NFL front offices? Because NFL front offices fail up to 70% of the time as well.

That would be quite the forum! Just imagine it… ————- Joe: Beane did a splendid job. Bob: He sure did Joe! What a splendid job he did. Mary: Oh my goodness it was super splendid. Joe: Indeed, more splendid that splenda! Bob: Do you think Beane prefers splenda? Mary: I bet he does! After all, he did a splendid job. Joe: Remember last years draft? He did a stupendous job then. Bob: Oh yes, very stupendous last year. Gary: Sorry i’m late to the thread everyone. Has anyone mentioned how stupendous last years draft was? Mary: Oh yes Gary, it was stupendous. Doug: What about the year before that though? It was supercalifragilisticexpialidocious. Joe: Indeed!

I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion. A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did. A similar one was down for Oakland I believe. Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list. Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate.

There was no insult intended. Apologizies if anything I said was taken that way. I was simply stating that you must not have seen Greeny defend the Bills nearly non-stop for 3 straight years now if you're going to say that he can't be objective about the Bills. Greeny, Simms and Brandt have been the most outwardly spoken Bills defenders of the past half decade. That's just a fact. What he said about the trade is spot on in my opinion. Beane has some question marks right now about whether he actually IS a good GM. I used to think he was. But he has made many many many blunders that have set this time back. From signing a 33 year old Von Miller to a massive deal, to letting KC jump us and take McDuffie (leaving us with Elam), to trading one of hte leagues best Guards to Cleveland for a bag of peanuts, to swinging and missing on Basham and Doyle and Fromm and Joseph.

Yikes.

Greeny has been backing the Bills for years now. If you have been living under a rock, I can understand not knowing of Greenys defense of the Bills but here they are: I'm not drawing any parallels. I didnt want him. I simply posted that the media is destroying the Bills for making the trade and rightfully so. You don't trade with the team you're trying to catch. Klingons don't trade with Romuluns.

We disagree greatly. I do not agree that trading a 4th for a 3rd is a “steep price”. Many people think we gained a pick - we didn’t. We just moved up a bit. Had they actually paid a steep price, I would have been far more okay with it. There is also 0 evidence that they still get Worthy without us. Maybe they would have or maybe they wouldn’t have. The fact that they made a trade signifies that they did NOT think Worthy would have fallen to them.

I mean, the actual Tyreek Hill was passed over 32 times in 4 different rounds. So the fact that 27 teams passed over him doesn’t mean much to me. That being said, I really didn’t want Worthy either. I just don’t want us to hand KC who they want.

That’s partly what scares me.

Maybe so. But it’s everywhere. Not just on NFL Memes. ESPN, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, FS1, etc. Im going to just avoid media for the next week.

No way to know. But even if they would have, it shouldn’t have been through our handing him to them. We are the joke of the NFL right now. Seeing stuff like this everywhere (and Greeny was a Bills ally all last season, defending us when no-one else would): Im not one for cussing, but it pisses me off.

I hate the position. Not the player.

He definitely does seem very capable of making catches from any angle and plucking the ball out of the air. That may be more valuable to the team than separation, But I gotta tell ya - Allen’s best season came when Daboll was scheming guys into separation.

I would send you to what I told Gunner. Here, i’ll copy/paste it for you: I recall an analysis done several years ago where it was shown that if the various Bills front offices of the drought (close to 20 years of drafts), simply followed the public sentiment of player grading (McShay, Kiper, etc) the team would have drafted more high caliber players than they actually did over that span. That was incredibly eye opening to me, and showed that the NFL GM’s who had done thousands of hours of game review know not much more (in terms of predictably of success) than the guys watching significantly less.

Huh? The conversation you quoted had nothing to do with the Bills picked. It was talking about trading with the Chiefs.

I would argue that anyone who has average-to-strong football analysis capability has enough knowledge to have an opinion after only 20 minutes of player game-tape. Not know more than you - but enough to have a fair opinion. I recall an analysis done several years ago where it was shown that if the various Bills front offices of the drought (close to 20 years of drafts), simply followed the public sentiment of player grading (I don’t recall the exact public list), the team would have drafted more high caliber players than they actually did over that span. That was incredibly eye opening to me, and showed that the NFL GM’s who had done thousands of hours of game review know not much more (in terms of predictably of success) than the guys watching significantly less.

You seemed to be contradicting that by listing hall of famers taken in later rounds, but apologies if I misunderstood. We can select WR’s now, but the likelihood of them being a contributor has rapidly diminished and that appears to be what the poster you were refuting was alluding to.

There is nothing ballsy about being stupid.

Doing what is best for your team includes the chess-style component of playing defense against your competition. Doing what is best for your team includes doing what is within your ability to block your greatest competition from improving their team. Remember when Bill Belichick poison-pilled Wes Welker and screwed Miami? Remember when the Chargers selected Eli Manning just so they could block another team from getting him and therefore forcing a windfall of capital? There are many examples really. There is an element of game theory in the NFL that great teams use to their advantage.

Listing exceptions to the rule does not negate the rule. They are called exceptions for a reason. Higher round draft picks are not valued more and cost more for no reason. It is because players chosen in those rounds are statistically more likely to succeed. I recently read a statistical analysis that looked at draft picks up to 2015. WR’s drafted in the 1st and 2nd round had an approximately 50% success rate. As soon as the 3rd round hit, the success rate plummeted to 25%. The 4th round then plummeted to 12%. The last few rounds were around 10% and less if I recall correctly. The players you listed are exceptions to the rule. Ps, by “success”, the analysis was simply looking at WR’s who started for at least half of their career. So the barrier to be “successful” was pretty low, and it was STILL plummeted after the 2nd round.

It doesn’t make me happy at all. We handed the Chiefs who they wanted and it only gained us moving up 1 round. This is the team we are chasing. It has universally mocked by pundits and rightfully so. We can only hope that Worthy doesn’t become a stud, but that is hardly the point in my opinion. I am not interesting in making it any easier for the team we are chasing to obtain the player they want. Maybe they still get him anyway, but it shouldn’t be due to us handing the player to them. If they want to trade with us, it should come with a large tax.

This is called copium. We’ve all been there. Colemans issue was never really smoothness. His problem is that he has no ability to seperate. Thats the issue. And none of his YouTube videos ever showed that getting better. He makes up for it by being incredibly skilled at adjusting to the ball and catching in contested spaces.