harryS

numbers do lie, and this is why you trust the eye test over nerdy stats. i like this team, it's very good, but it's not the best bills team ever.

like I said, you don't have a good feel for this. the first time the Pats played at Buffalo, the closing line was 3 and you could get 2.5 at high-handle places like Cris and Circa. that means the line has already been adjusted off the very key number of 3 and through the key number of 4. there's no way this thing is moving higher. to be clear, I think the Bills will win and cover, but my own personal opinion has nothing to do with how the market will move.

sorry for the nitpick but I don't believe those paths are even possible... the NFL still reseeds after every round, right? so Titans would play the Steelers. that's why getting the #1 seed is so powerful. you get a bye week AND your first opponent will likely be a wild-card team that upset a division winner in the first round. yeah, they could lose 24-6 instead of 40-6. yawn. that's just very unlikely. i don't think you have a good handle on point spreads

we are probably better than a typical 4 seed because (a) we have a QB that can get hot and carry a team deep into the playoffs and (b) our point differential has been good, but beyond that, there are definitely going to be 3-4 other teams I'm more confident in going deeper than the Bills. still, that's a way better situation than most.

Right. Even if Josh is better on the road than at home, if his teammates are better at home than on the road, and the opposing team is better at home than on the road (both typically true), then it's still better to be at home.

the bills would still have to win three more games to win the super bowl. my only fear would be that belichick comes up with a great gameplan that can be mimicked by other opponents even if the bills beat new england. other than that possibility, i wouldn't be that concerned.

ha, get your own nfl db (might have to purchase) and learn sql that's exactly right. the team that played the Bucs tough on Sunday isn't the team that will show up in Buffalo. bad teams that lose a heartbreaker at home are very unlikely to show up on the road the next week, especially in the last game of the season. the jets are already thinking about the beaches in Costa Rica or wherever. but obviously the bills can't think this way. we should respect the opponent and come prepared and amped up to win the division. i don't expect that will be a problem.

good line. bad teams that lose heartbreakers at home then go on the road the next game historically get wrecked.

a bunch of us, i think. no hindsight = 20/20 here. even at the time of the loss, a lot of us feared this would cost us valuable seeding down the line. but oh well, let's keep rolling into the playoffs and see what happens

I'd rather have the #1 seed and a bye week in the playoffs but I hear you regardless. Time to win 4 tough games in the playoffs.

There has been gambling on football for decades and decades, way before the NFL partnered with some casinos. If there are shenanigans going on, it's been going on for a long time. And official relationship doesn't change anything.

Right, the MVP is heavily tied to team success, right or wrong. (This is true in all the major sports). Rodgers is the heavy, heavy favorite. But who cares? What matters is that Josh has lifted his game at the right time and was brilliant against New England. This gives the Bills a shot in the playoffs.