donahoeisgod

Reading through the lines at Marv's responses from Friday's Press Conference, I sat back, took the weekend, and thought about how the Bills can retain Clements long term, and sign two OL's while letting Kelsay and Fletcher go. Assuming Hargrove can replace Kelsay and Crowell can replace Fletcher with Ellison (he's already the same size as Cato June) taking over for Crowell at the "Will" LB spot, here's how they can spend "to the Cap" and accomplish the above while not "mortgaging the future" as per Marv. I assume that they will spend $30 million after accounting for their 2007 picks and RFA's (retaining Greer, Hargrove, and Anderson (for depth)). I noted that Marv indicated they would be more selective in FA this year so besides role players/backups (i.e. A-Train, K.Thomas, A. Davis) I believe they wish to resign to relatively cheap deals, I think the following 3 free agents will be pursued. First, let's assume they re-sign their biggest FA Nate Clements-will be looking for a big pay day and probably deserves it. He has generally been a top 5-10 cornerback and has indicated he is willing to come back to Buffalo for the right deal. Here's my offer if I am the Bills. 2007- Base 12.0 million 2008- Base 7.5 million, 3.0 roster bonus 2009- Base 8.0 million, 1.5 roster bonus 2010- Base 8.5 million, 1.0 roster bonus 2011- Base 9.0 million 2012- Base 10.0 million Final Total- 6 years/$60.5 million with $22.5 million in first two years and $32 million in first 3. Remember, Nate's cap number for this year, if he were tagged again, would be approximately $9.0 so this is not too far off the market while maintaining flexibility for the Bills in the event of injury/decline in play toward the end of the contract. Now, the Bills still have approx. $18 million left for other free agents. Next on my list are a couple offensive lineman. I am assumiing that Villarial and Reyes are let go--saving some additional $$$ for our "Cash to the Cap" spree... 2) Eric Steinbach- Marv indicated that they still had to discuss Mike Gandy some more so that leads me to believe a new LG is likely. Here's how I think they can get the best one out there this year. 2007 Base- $9.5 million 2008 Base- $4.0 million, roster bonus $3.0 million 2009 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2010 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2011 Base- $6.0 million 2012 Base- $7.0 million A deal for 6 years/ $42.5million with $16.5 million for two years and $23million for 3 years. Plus our "Cash to the Cap" is reduced by $9.5 million to approximately $8.5 million. 3) Ryan Lilja/ Jake Scott (RFAs-Indy)- With the franchising of Dwight Freeney and numerous other free agents, I think the Bills might make a play for one of the above. I beleive Lilja has no compensation since he was undrafted, plus he played RG for the Colts, so let's have him be the first choice. 2007 Base- $6.50 million 2008 Base- $2.25 million, roster bonus $1.5 million 2009 Base- $2.75million, roster bonus $1.0 million 2010 Base- $3.25 million So 4years/ $17.5 million with more up front to dissuade/prevent a match from the Colts. The Cash to the Cap figure is reduced by $6.5 million to $2.0 million. This money would be used to resign A-train and K. Thomas, etc. I realize it might exceed the exact amount but maybe Ralph can sell another Monet, or take the additional $3-4 million from the increased ticket price to fill in the blanks with veteran depth. It might not work but hey, it fitsd the model the Bills will allegedly follow.. they couldn then draft for additional depth at RB, LB and DL. It should be fun starting on March 2.

Again, let's wait until the end of April to judge FA and the draft before going off the deep end. The Bills will still be competitive this year....just chill out. None of us are privy to the inner workings at One Bills Drive so, to paraphrase the old Mayor, let's sit back over the next couple months pop open a six pack and see what happens.

Thanks about the Peters nitpick, realized it after submitting. I think the Bills will either re-sign Kelsay or have a long term offer for his replacement Hargrove. As for Nate, the Bills have realized six good years from him and haven't lost him.....yet. Fletcher is aging and simply not big enough, especially behind our DL. Just as the Colts lost Edge after his first contract and a year (or two) as a franchise designee..... and personally I would rather take the money and proactively sign a Peters or Schobel (or Crowell and Mcgee) as the Bills have done in the past, then sign big name FAs like the Redskins....continuing on that train of thought, let's use the $30 million to extend Evans and Willis this year and/or JP if he continues to develop. Those three, to me, are much more important than a very good, but not great CB like Nate (especially in a Cover 2), and an aging, smallish MLB like Fletcher. I really think signing a couple good OL and resigning/extending the above, along with another good draft and this team will be ready to go by the end of this year (Wild Card). Then, continue to progress while locking up the true key components of your team along the way.

I agree, you can really tell how the season will go two weeks before free agency, ten weeks before the draft and six and a half months before opening kickoff. Listen, my take on Marv's press conference was that the Bills will sign a few free agents, not likely Briggs/Steinbach. The majority of your help will come from your drafts, look at the players on this team who I think make a difference, Evans, JP, Peters, Willis, Whitner, McGee, Schobel, and Clements. What do they have in common? Draft picks. Free agency Super Bowl Winners like the Redskins and Browns (last year), end up looking good on paper and not good on the field. Look at the last two SB winners, Pittsburgh (Big Ben, Ward, Porter, Hampton, Faneca, M. Smith, Polamalu) and Indy(Manning, Wayne, Addai, Edge, Harrison, Freeney, Bob Sanders) also built in late April and not in early March.

I think Carriker is a likely first rounder for the Bills, if he is still there at #12....he might look pretty good as a 3-4 DE for the 49ers who pick 11th. I think his size and versatility as a 3rd down rush tackle make him intriguing.

Why not franchise Fletcher and then draft his replacement on Round 1, 2 or 3? I know $ 7.2 million is alot for LFB but we can swing it under the cap and it allows 1) not having to spend any bonus money on him or his replacement and 2) gives more flexibility in FA and the Draft.

Originally I was puzzled to as to why re-sign Wire but according to NFLPA.org this morning his base salaries for the three years are $650k, $700k and $750k. So as long as the signing bonus is not extravagant, you have a good special teamer/7th linebacker who fits the current system for reasonable money. A decent start and another character player in the lockeroom and in the community. Now let's see if Uncle Ralpch can sell a Monet and re-sign Nate.....

Ted Ginn, Jr. (he will be the Reggie Wayne to Lee Evans' Marvin Harrison. He will also relieve T. McGee from KR duties so he can concentrate on his new role as de facto #1 CB.) (Of course, I truly think Marv trades #12, #43 and next year's #2 and #4 to Cleveland for #3 and the rights to Calvin Johnson but no trades are allowed so forget about it )

After thinking about it for awhile, why would I renew my seasons tickets on the 20 yard line at $600 each. I can simply wake up in the middle of July on the first day of sales for single games, take a drive over to the stadium 10 minutes from my house and buy the same seat (ok, maybe not the same seat each game) for the eight regular season games. Let's see 8 x 70= $560 and I don't have to pay for the parking or tickets for the two idiotic pre-season sleepfests. Now that is a deal!

He won't make a splash. If you add it up a $5 average ticket price x 72000 tickets x 10 games is less than $5 million in additional revenue, or the rough equivalent of Larry Tripplett's signing bonus.

Thanks Uncle Ralph for showing us long time season ticket holders how much you appreciate us! A 27% increase for basically those seated in between the 20s. I assume that we will be able to afford a couple free agents now? I guess the good news is that this increase might cause some season ticket holders to give them up, making a move toward mid-field more likely... I do love how the Bills couch it as only a $5.00 increase...statistics and marketing are wonderful things!

Or maybe he realizes that he is turning 32, is short for the position, and can be run at directly....he has already fleeced this team for 17.5 million dollars....hopefully this off-season he'll be able to figure out what he wants to be called on his new team...maybe London Fletcher-Overrated?

Leonard is a great prospect and is projected to be a late 1st-early 2nd rounder.....another name to remember is B.J.Askew from the Jests, who also is a good special teamer....

Two names to keep in mind...Justin Griffith from Atlanta and Darian Barnes from the hated Dolphins are both FAs and relatively young (26-27).

The one thing about Rosenhaus is that he does not usually hold clients out as a negotiating ploy. He is full of bluster but his clients are always there on opening day. If the numbers are reasonable, extend Willis this year. If not, pay him his salary for 2007 and then let him have a monster season next year. Then franchise him for a year and draft his replacement in the 2008 draft, which is supposed to be replete with good runners. The Bills have the leverage here and should use it.

Lee Evans has three years remaining on his initial six year deal per NFLPA.org. I agree with your basic premise but would not extend Willis. He has one more year on his contract and then can always be franchised for another year. And then he will be 27-28 so let's wait and see how he holds up. Also, next year (2008) draft is supposed to be replete with top backs so we might want to wait and pick our next RB then rather than extend Willis who has, in my opinion turned out to be really good but not so good that he cannot be replaced by a younger, cheaper model in 2 years. I would also wait on JP until the middle of next year...just to let him prove it over the course of more than 6-8 good games. However, I would leave some money going into next year for an extension like you propose.

I currently have 2 and will likely be adding 1 in the next couple years as my son (currently 3 1/2) gets older. Of course, I would hope/expect it to be next to our current seats.

I truly believe that Clements will be re-signed by the Bills. If I am Marv and Ralph, I sit down with Nate and his agent and indicate that he is the cornerstone of our Defense and one of the league's top DBs and will be paid that way. Then I set forth a contract as follows and see if he is interested. 7 yrs/ 56.6 million dollars broken down as follows: Signing bonus 15 million dollars (split into $10 mill immediately and $5 million on the first day of the leagues 2008 year) Base salaries as follows: 2007- 5.5 million; 2008-3.5 million; 2009-4.0 million; 2010-4.5 million; 2011- 5.0 million; 2012- 7.5 million; 2013- 9.5 million. I would also provide bonuses of $250k for every year he makes the Pro Bowl and $100 k per year workout bonus as an enticement to attend the off season workouts. The above would result in a cap figure of approx. $7 million for 2007 (about the same as for 2006 franchise tag) while also providing reasonable cap figures until the last two years of the contract when it could be re-visited or a 32-year old Nate could be cut with relatively reasonable dead cap hit (approximately 4 million if cut after 5th year.) The above contract provides Nate with $28 million dollars in the first three years of the contract. With the Bills sitting over thirty million under the cap it would also provide the team with some money to pursue additional free agents. The split signing bonus also gives the Bills some leeway in providing other FAs with nice bonus to come to WNY. Just a thought....

An interesting thing about that schedule is that the furthest trip the Bills will likely have is to Miami....Ralph should not have a problem selling out the Giants and Cowboys....it's too bad Bledsoe will not be playing but hysterical if he is still on the Cowboys while "the Kid" takes on Tony Homo...

All you have to do is take a look at the Pennington TD to Coles this past week or Garrards pass to Lewis against the Jags for evidence of this problem with Fletcher. The fact remains he is an undersized 32 year old MLB who does not desrve a contract when better, cheaper options exist. Perhaps some of that money saved from not re-signing the hyphenated one could go toward more DL depth? And as for who will be our Tommie Harris, etc.....keeping Patrick Willis clean, I believe that is the role eventually envisioned for John McCargo. Check out Tommie Harris' stats for his first two years in the Cover 2 vs. this year. It takes a couple years for the players to legitimately and adequately learn any defensive system, give McCargo a chance next year and I bet there is noticeable improvement.

I don't know what game you people watch but Fletcher continues to get sucked up by the play fakes and takes poor angles in run pursuit. "Tackles" are an overrated stat padded by the home team each week. The Bills should thank him for his efforts and let 32-year old undersized Fletcher go. There is a MLB from Ole Miss named Patrick Willis who should be starting in Orchard Park come September. He would/will be the Bills version of Urlacher. He's that good.

He plays the NT position for the Bears similarly-styled defense and was selected by the Bears while Jauron was coaching him. He also won't likely break Ralph's bank account....

I am happy to see someone agrees with my opinion. I think your leaders on defense next year are a healthier Spikes, a re-signed Clements and D. Whitner. I also think the Bills will make a strong effort to re-sign Nate and Chris Kelsay. But if they don't I think you will see Hargrove in their for Kelsay and Youboty for Nate. Another name to watch as a FA on the D-line, Ian Scott from Chicago. He's young (25), also drafted under Jauron in 2003 and plays the NT position in Chicago's Tampa 2. You stick him next to Tripplett, have McCargo and Williams as the back up and offer Tim Anderson his RFA tender for the year. Assuming Kelsay re-signs, you have a good deal of depth on the D-line. If you can re-sign Nate and Kelsay, add Briggs and Scott and with a year's experience in the system, the Defense should be fine next year. And then you concentrate your draft on OL and WR.

I hope he is a better coach than middle linebacker....check out the NFL Replay with the Bills Jags game and count the number of bad angles and/or missed tackles Fletcher takes. Instead of re-signing his overrated self, let's take the money and put it toward a younger, faster bigger linebacker in the form of Lance Briggs, who was drafted by Dick Jauron. We then move Crowell back to the MLB he was drafted to play and move on.

Matt Murphy would wear a suit.