Cray51
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Is he through? He has been a #3/4 his entire career. This year he is getting fed targets, but I wouldn't call him a difference maker. He is worse than Josh Palmer in almost every core stat. He wouldn't be a slot guy over Shakir. So you are upgrading from Coleman to Shaheed. Is that really worth the investment? If it was a 5th only, sure. But I wouldn't give up a 3rd to bring him in.
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And there are multiple variables and odds to consider. Do you punt, which gives KC a 2% chance of a TD but gives you a 0% chance of winning. You convert a punt 99% of the time Do you FG, which gives you a 100% chance of winning but KC a 5% chance if you miss. You make a FG in that range 75% of the time Do you go for it, which gives you a 100% chance of winning, but KC a 5% chance if you miss, plus the chances of a fumble/INT being way higher. You convert 45% of the 4th downs at that distance. I go FG - it's the highest chance of a put away play with the lowest possible TD the other way rate, and KC's chances go up minimally with a miss (which is what happened).
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Ridiculous. Kicking the field goal was 100% the right call. Just like how he handled the goal line stand in the 1st half - masterful. No one is talking about it because the people who hate McD can't seem to give him any credit. Blown coverage leads to KC with the ball at the half yard like, 37 seconds left. McD doesn't call TO right away, he waits until they are close to snapping to stop the clock at 25 seconds. It allows him to change personnel and bring the big run stuffers in. Hunt is 18 for 20 in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 conversions, and he is at the goal line. Personnel change allows the stop on 1st, the two incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down, and the FG keeps KC to 3 points instead of 7. Ended up being a huge moment, Buffalo didnt have to worry about defending a field goal at the end of the game. McD was very good against the Chiefs. People need to cut it out with the crap. Watch 75% of the coaches around the league mess things up consistently and then tell me McD is a bad tactical coach
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Insane stat re: Josh Allen rushing TD's.........
Cray51 replied to Special K's topic in The Stadium Wall
I was running the numbers today: he has never had a season under 6 rushing TDs. past two seasons have seen him score 15 and 12 TDs respectively. this year he is already at 7 in 8 games there is no reason to think he won’t do 10+ each year for the next 3-4 seasons. not only do I think he will make it to 124, he may reach 140 -
Insane stat re: Josh Allen rushing TD's.........
Cray51 replied to Special K's topic in The Stadium Wall
Assuming he can get 50 more rushing TDs,he will end his career top 5 ALL TIME -
Long term, the lineup will be: CBs: Benford Hairston Strong Safety: Bishop Hancock They will likely draft a slot CB, and another safety (or sign someone ala Rapp) At this point, I'd say the secondary looks like it COULD be good, but nothing is set in stone. Need to bring in a future slot corner.
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I'm thinking they will be 11-6 at the end of the year. They will lose a game in the division, and maybe the Colts or Dallas
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11/2/25 GAMEDAY Bills vs Chiefs 4:30pm Post Game Thread
Cray51 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Very well coached game - team was disciplined, structured, and didn't force anything on offense. Defense looked measured, have to think McD calling plays and coordinating with Poyer back there is helping. I dont understand why people are pooping on McD last night. He coached a very very good game. His timeout at the end of the half with 25 seconds left was perfect. Allowed his personnel to reset, put the goal line team in, and they made 3 great plays to hold the Chiefs to 3 points. In the past few years, whenever the Bills get their midseason win over the Chiefs it kicks them into gear and they go on a run. Last year was a 4-1 run to lock up the division and conference with a game in hand going into NE. Fingers crossed we continue that push this year -
11/2/25 GAMEDAY Bills vs Chiefs 4:30pm Post Game Thread
Cray51 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Chiefs gave bosa free run to Mahomes, and leaked an RB behind. Forced Bosa to stutter to cover the fake screen, then runs Kelce to the first down line on a deep curl as a decoy, takes Worthy deep on the left to clear the safety, and takes rice on an option route to let him work. Forces Bernard to make a decision on kelce or rice. it was a great play call Like what… -
11/2/25 GAMEDAY Bills vs Chiefs 4:30pm Post Game Thread
Cray51 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think it was a Reid master play that he saves for the playoffs, but had to bring it out to try to convert knowing that play was the game at that point -
11/2/25 GAMEDAY Bills vs Chiefs 4:30pm Post Game Thread
Cray51 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
His timeout at the end of the half to reset the defensive unit was very smart and likely saved us from allowing a touchdown -
The problem hasn't been replacing a Beasley/Davis/Sanders - it's replacing Diggs. He was top 5 WR level with us during the 2020-2022 runs. He was the outlet on scramble drills. He was the zone beater, the coverage beater, the contested catch guy, etc. They have replaced Beasley, it's Shakir Davis is replaced with Coleman Mckenzie replaced with Samuel (not exact, but similar) Smoke replaced with Palmer If you are going to try to get a Diggs replacement, it's going to have to be a bit of a prayer for someone like BJT/Addison to be dealt and elevate their game. If they get a guy who is 80% of what Diggs was, the passing offense will spring forward
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Something I've noticed watching those games from prior years, having a top 5 WR in the game was special. Allen had a guy who could catch a ball on the boundary in tight coverage while getting their feet down. I'd love a Justin Jefferson, Chase, Diggs, etc. It puts so much more pressure on Allen, but these guys are just so hard to add to a team who has been a sustained contender.
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I'll be honest, I think Allen, especially after last seasons injury in week 1, has dialed down runs during the regular season. Allen will turn it up when the games matter. As in, win or go home matter. He wants to escape the pocket now, but you can tell he is trying to throw at all costs instead of going through a corner or running around a DE. That will change when we get to January, 100%
