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Weatherman

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Everything posted by Weatherman

  1. Can’t stop the run even when we knew it’s been coming for a week. They have to be averaging nearly 10 yards a tote. 🤮
  2. That’s the ball game. Worst coached team in football.
  3. Failure to address the RB position will be the downfall of this team. Absolutely atrocious play. Not a single RB on this team has any vision, can hold onto the ball or can catch. Worst RB group Ive even seen an NFL team field.
  4. Politicians have jobs and nobody likes the job they do.
  5. If I was captured by the Chinese and they wanted to extract information from me, I think listening to Collinsworth for an extended period might do the trick. Even if what he said was entertaining (it’s not) his whiny nasally voice is worse that a cat scratching a chalkboard.
  6. That’s all dependent on the track of the low. If I remember correctly, the big snow makers are the Alberta Clippers because the move from North to South across the Great Lakes. And creates a very long northwesterly fetch across multiple Great Lakes and into the Buffalo region. I would too…regardless of accuracy. 😂
  7. Hapless, The ECWMF is the gold standard for deterministic atmospheric modeling. The reason that it’s not widely used is because of the price tag associated with it. In reality, all models are only as good as the forecaster interpreting, initializing and adjusting it to the live conditions. If you want to see something awesome google NCEP HRRR Ensemble and look up probability of snow, winds, etc. Ensembles are way more accurate than deterministic because they account for a chaotic environment by tuning the same model multiple time and perturbing certain parameters. Once you do this you have a probabilistic model….my favorite. Typically behind a cold front winds switch to the NW (frontside of the high). If the high is moving to the south, you can start with a northwest flow changing to a westerly gradient flow.
  8. Full disclosure Met students (B.S./M.S. or Doctorates) don’t know squat about forecasting. They can tell you the science/math associated with meteorology but can’t forecast their way out of a wet paper bag. This is all learned via OTJ training. The forecast discussion is good for an understanding about general area forecasts but it’s not specific to pin point locations. Lake effect is a all based on fetch (wind direction). The wind changes, the snow band moves with it, which is why you can get 2 feet of snow at orchard park and zero in Buffalo. Wunderground provides high resolution models specific to Individual locations, so in the scenario I agree with the poster. If you read my original post all the way to the end, you will see that I said it looks like westerly flow off Lake Erie behind the cold front could lead to higher winds and lake effect snow. Still 4 days out and the system could speed up or slow down…let’s hope it speeds up!
  9. No…looks to be gusts in the 30MPH range with snow flurries (Lake effect off of Lake Erie)
  10. Everyone’s a meteorologist now a days.
  11. Shut it Bon…you’re not welcome here!
  12. Few thing: 1) Models are highly inaccurate this far out (systems speed up/slow down) drastically due to changes with the Jet Stream orientation and intensity. 2) This is 00Z (Greenwich Mean Time) on Monday which is actually Sunday Night. 3) This panel show the warm front to the north of Buffalo which you will see a southerly warm air advection associated with it. This could lead to rain showers but highly unlikely you will see a winters mix. Once we are on the backside of the low or cold front wind direction will shift from the NW (cold air advection) and could create a lake effect snow event with higher winds due to the onset of higher pressure creating a tightened temperature/pressure gradient (the forcing mechanism for winds). Long range models I’ve looked at have a westerly flow off of Lake Erie at game time. Since it’s early winter and the lake is yet to freeze over we can still get some lake effect snow with a westerly fetch. Again, way to early to forecast with any degree of certainty. 4). Recommend the following links to higher resolution products once we get 48-60 hours out. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rrfs_na_3km_dev1_conus_jet https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/meteodata.php?BackHour=0&sta=KBUF&TempBox=Y&DewBox=Y&SkyBox=Y&WindSpdBox=Y&WindGustBox=Y&WindDirBox=Y&CigBox=Y&VisBox=Y&ObvBox=Y&PopoBox=Y&ConvBox=Y&LightningBox=Y&PtypeBox=Y My overall favorite non government site: https://www.windy.com/-Precip-type-ptype?ptype,2021120706,41.558,-83.672,5
  13. Some of it is Josh some of it is the awful oline some of it is awful play calling.
  14. Our blitz frequency has to be at the bottom of the league. Our Defensive scheme might be effective but it’s not sexy to watch a 4 man rush (unless we’re playing the (Dolphins, Jets or Texans).
  15. Heinicke would have been the 3rd best QB we’ve had since 2006 behind JA and Fitz.
  16. Disagree on all except WR. They need a true #1. TE they are loaded. Baker has had a new OC nearly every year. The talent is there, and I don’t agree with labeling him a weakness unless all QB’s outside of the top 5 are considered weaknesses. The other positions (other than P) I flat out disagree with.
  17. You’re right we’re not talented at all, we only went the conference championship game last year. 🤡
  18. Name a position of weakness on the browns roster. Why is the record meh? Why have they struggled against teams with way less talent? Coaching, leadership, bad decision making. I’m not referencing anything specific in this current game, I’m referencing our season all together compared to theirs. We’ve both underachieved to this point. Browns have more of an excuse due to key injuries. If Belichick or Harbaugh had the Browns or Bills roster, they would be 11-0.
  19. The Browns and Bills are so similar. Loaded with talent but bad coaching and player decision making cost them dearly.
  20. According to some dinguses on this board he’s neck and neck with Mack Jones.
  21. QB a draw??? Anything you post from this point on is now null and void.
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