Beck Water

It's a good question, but I feel McDermott was more directly involved with the D his first couple years and tried to back off to build the impression of Frazier as an independent entity.

Where's DC Tom when you need him?

That's factually easy to disprove. Brown missed game 5, 7, and 11-15 in 2020. Gabe Davis got 49-74% of the snaps in games 1-4 (with Brown playing), 62% in game 6 (with Brown playing) and 47-60% of the snaps in games 8-10 (with Brown playing). Davis played 54,45, and 22% of the snaps in the 3 playoff games (with Brown playing) He played more, of course, when Brown was out - closer to 100% of the snaps. So yes, Davis got significant playing time as a rookie based upon him learning the offense, being a good blocker, and being able to run routes. Same thing in 2021 - Davis got more playing time when Sanders was injured late in the season, but he was not sitting, he was still seeing 30-50% of the snaps WITH Sanders active and playing.

No, I'm pointing out that it's credulous to believe that a victorious opponent will provide factual, unbiased analysis when speaking to the press after a game. He said what he said; whether it truly reflects his film study of Davis, and whether that film study truly reflects Davis capabilities over his 3 years, are different questions. But if you think that's what he's providing and you choose to take it at face value and reference it in your own evaluation of Davis, You do You. Some folks with more independence in thought and deed might choose to go to Next Gen Charts, particularly from previous years, and look at the actual routes run, or go to Cover1 and look at their various pieces on Davis. It's true that under Dorsey, Davis was running a limited route tree early in the season and that they likely "went to the well too often" on that play.

To be fair here, 1) We don't know how much talk about acquiring DHop comes from serious enquiries by the Bills themselves vs. pundits and fans. Beane has said many times that often when the Bills are reported to be interested in a player, it means there have been preliminary calls, "is this player actually available? what are your thoughts on a fair deal for him?" but it's clear there isn't gonna be a meeting of minds so that's all there is. 2) Beane did in fact mention needing to extend Gabe Davis (and Ed Oliver) in his combine presser when he talked about not re-signing Tremaine Edmunds. If you just posted an excerpt of the play you're talking about, that as the Steelers and it counted as a TD. Gabe caught it, the DB pulled it away, Gabe wrestled it back, TD.

I'd like to suggest Option 3: Patrick Peterson is talking trash and exaggerating for the purpose of talking trash. I think it is true that he knew what was coming on that INT to Gabe Davis in the EZ because it was a read/play the Bills and Josh had been leaning on too often in the red zone, but that was a terrible throw by Josh and if it had been on target, he might be talking differently.

Oh, wow, that's a pretty amazing number if so. I wonder how they define "catchable" though? Is it like drops, where a drop is defined only as a ball that can be caught with "ordinary effort", that falls within the frame from like, thighs to head or as far to the side as both arms can reach without turning/stretching? Do you know? Because guys who have played, announcers etc will say "that was a difficult catch but he needs to make that one" about balls that aren't scored as drops. And if "catchable" is defined the same way, it might include some balls that most of us would say "yeah, that was a contested catch, but he got his hands on it, he needs to seal that deal".

I don't want to replace Gabe Davis because of 2022. I do want to see him improve. But I also think it's time, and past time, to in fact utilize (not burn) a quality draft pick on improving the WR room. Our window is now. 4th and 5th round draft picks are usually drafted there because they need development. The Bills right now are, at WR, exactly where the 2008-2012 Russ Brandon/Buddy Nix GM years were at QB IMO. The last QB we spent a first round pick on, JP Losman in 2004, hadn't really worked out. Our 2007 3rd round pick, Trent Edwards, was arguably better but ultimately they both were busts. So Brandon and NIx dithered and hesitated, failed to pull the trigger, wasted 4 years on the fool's gold of a journeyman late-round pick from another team, then finally used a 1st round pick in the worst QB draft of several years before and after. It's not that there weren't quality QB they could have selected - TJ Graham in the 2012 3rd round 6 picks before Russ Wilson stands out, Kirk Cousins was also on the board at that time. But they were caught in the "paralysis of analysis" and didn't or couldn't act. OK, so WR are one of the highest paid positions in the league, and "draft and develop" is 100% the cap-savvy way to go. But the last two swings the Bills took - Zay Jones in the 2nd in 2017 and trading a 2018 3rd round pick for Kelvin Benjamin in 2017 - flubbed. So Beane decided to go the sure route and trade for an already-developed 5th round WR with his 1st, while turning over the Bargain Bin for 4th rounder Gabe Davis and 5th rounder Khalil Shakir. It's not that there haven't been some talented guys within reach - Amon Ra St Brown in the 2021 3rd, for example. We traded down to draft James Cook, could potentially have traded up a few slots to go after George Pickens in the 2022 2nd. The bottom line is, I think Beane under-values WR and OL because that's what he learned in Carolina, and is also caught in the "paralysis of analysis" not wanting to "burn" a pick on a top talent WR ho might crash and burn like Benjamin or Zay Jones when "there are guys who can help us in the later rounds". It pissed me off when Beane said "we don't want to suck bad enough to draft Jamar Chase" as though the alternatives are 5th overall pick or 4th/5th round players. I think it's a mistake. Invest in the offense. Invest in OL, invest in WR. You may be right, that Beane will "forget it" as far as using a high draft pick on a WR. But I think we need that talent and it's "using" a pick, not "burning" one.

My point was just there's some logistics to resolve there. That was said of Milano his rookie year. It will be interesting to see if Bernard comes to camp bigger and stronger.

Love the part about scheduling primetime games around a new QB leading to a dumpster fire then Hackett chiming in

Questions: What were the pre-season predictions for the Bills from this outfit last year at this time? And what was the consensus here?

Yeah, I honestly don't know what McDermott and Beane will do. I suppose I'm afraid of #1, which seems like a reprise of the Bad Old Days where we'd fail to re-sign the talent we drafted and developed and then use a high draft pick, possibly on a lesser player. I do think you missed a couple options. One is that some vets will be cut, request release, or be available for trade on reasonable deals, after the draft. Beane has alluded to this in his presser. I think Beane may have his eyes on a crafty AJ Klein-type vet or two who may be cut. I also think your option 2. is plausible. If he were really worthy of a 3rd round pick, Terell Bernard might given the chance to earn the job. I think Dodson didn't play well enough when given the chance last season, but it's not inconceivable the Bills have some idea on adjustments they could make to help him succeed. One issue about dime is, who do you take off the field? Normally, the MLB has the "green dot", calls the plays, and stays on the field on passing downs. But in the Bills case, I assume it's Milano you'd like to leave on the field in coverage. Interesting times. Anyway, thanks for the kind words!

If I could put a stake in one myth on this board, it's the "McDermott will never play rookies". McDermott will play rookies every game all game - if he sees that rookie as the best choice for the job. But "Nothing is Given, Everything is Earned". The rookie who doesn't go hard in practice, who doesn't master the playbook, who can't apply the playbook on the field, who isn't taking "corrections" into the next week's practice and the next game, is going to find his ass sitting down. And he's not gonna play ahead of a guy McD and staff see as the better player, just because he's our "hope for the future" or some such. "Talent is as Talent Does"; you seem to be arguing that a more talented guy (guy with higher physical potential?) should play ahead of a guy who has the playbook down and is in the right place at the right time doing the right thing in practice and on the field, but makes a mistake. McDermott disagrees, and I do too. Put the best guys as of today on the field. Let me introduce a concept mind-boggling in its simplicity: McDermott will play whoever he sees as the best player for the job. When McDermott took over in 2017, he played rookies all the time - Tre White played close to 100%, Dion Dawkins played 100% of the snaps in his 3rd game, Milano played about half the snaps in his 4th game and took over by the end of the season. -Josh Allen played starting halfway through his 1st game, Tre Edmunds played 100% starting game 1 bar injuries, Taron Johnson (4th round) played starting week 3 57% overall, Levi Wallace (undrafted) took over Game 10 and played 97% from then on out -Cody Ford started 15 games as a rookie 69% overall, Devin Singletary played 67% of the snaps as a rookie, Dawson Knox 64% -Gabriel Davis played 73% of the snaps as a rookie, the Bills played an unexpected amount of 4 wr sets because he was too good to sit -Spencer Brown played 78% of the snaps as a rookie, Greg Rousseau 49% - Christian Benford played 62% of the snaps, Kaiir Elam played 57%, Khalil Shakir played 29%, James Cook played 25% It doesn't take most of our successful draft picks 3 or 4 years to contribute.

Well, It's perfectly clear and obvious to me what he means there! (NOT!)

2017. Tremaine Edmunds was just a gleam in the eye of Brandon Beane's newly assembled scouting teams. The Bills went to the playoffs, and lost in the WC round. This was arguably a result of their total inability to pass with Tyrod Taylor at QB, plus having Shady McCoy playing on one ankle, not on the D. The D held the Jags to 87 pass yards and Leonard Fournette to 57 rush yards and lost, 10-3. The defense finished the regular season 18th on points, so a bit worse than middle-of-the-league. They were opportunistic: 9th for TO. They were bend-don't-break, 2nd for passing TDs given up, but 20th for passing yards and 29th for rushing yards and 32nd for rushing TDs. The memory I have is that it was felt our pass D was over-rated, because teams could just run on us - unless we sold out to stop the run. So I thought it would be interesting to look back at what that defense looked like, the year before Tremaine Edmunds was drafted, when we went to playoffs without him. DL: Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams-Adolphus Washington - (initially Marcel Dareus)-Jerry Hughes (plus rotational players) LB: Zo Alexander-Preston Brown-Ramon Humber (moving to Matt Milano as the year went on) CB: Tre White, EJ Gaines Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer Preston Brown, White (because McDermott won't start rookies) Hyde, and Poyer played close to 100% of the defensive snaps. DL assessment: Shaq Lawson was our 2016 1st rounder. Lawson had shoulder surgery after OTAs and missed the first 6 games of his rookie season. I remember being under-impressed by him. Kyle Williams: "Meet the Meatball!" Bills legend, 'nuff said. But, he may have started the Beane love affair with DTs whose heart and want-to are bigger than the frames. Not what he once was, but still a very very good player in 2017 at age 34. Adolphus Washington: Bills 2016 3rd rounder. Started 10 of 15 games in 2017 in a DL rotation, played about half the snaps. Was mysteriously cut after 1 game in 2018, bounced around a couple teams, and out of football the next year. Marcell Dareus: was in the mix and very effective against the run for 5 of the first 6 games, until we traded him to Jax Jerry Hughes: another Bills legend. Very good player still at that point, a bit of a hot-head though "Meet Gary!" Rotational players included a crew of guys I have no memory of. LB assessment: Preston Brown, MLB, was the Bills 2014 3rd round pick. He started outside on the 2014 #4 defense under Schwartz, but Rex Ryan moved him inside in his 3-4. I thought he was a decent player, but lacked the sideline to sideline range and coverage skills McDermott coveted. But as I recall, they mostly made it work. We moved on after the season. Zo Alexander, OLB: played ~half the defensive snaps, 32% to 94%. One Man Gang, what else is there to say? Smart, well prepared, hard working, and went hard; still had it at 34. Ramon Humber: OLB: STer in 2016 but started the season at age 30 playing almost 100% of the snaps, then was injured Matt Milano: started out behind Humber on the depth chart but took more and more snaps when he was injured then kept them when he returned ('cuz McDermott rookies) In these days, the Bills played more 4-3 base. Brown was on the field full time, and Humber started out that way, but they ended the year mixing it up situationally. CB assessment: Tre White made more mistakes then, but his quality was clear and yes he was a rookie and yes McDermott played him. EJ Gaines played 100% of the snaps when healthy but missed 5 games due to injury and parts of 3 others. We didn't bring him back. I think Shareece Wright, who was a 2011 3rd round pick from the Chargers, subbed in for him. I'm not sure who was our Nickel back that year. But even then, IIRC, we hardly played any dime, using Milano as a hybrid role or Zo as our "heavy nickel" Safety: the foundational year of Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde. They had more athleticism and less wisdom; the mind-meld was only just getting started. What's My Point? Well, a lot of folks (including me) are worried about what life looks like for the Bills D without Tremaine Edmunds. And I don't know. But I do remember that a lot of people felt Preston Brown was not very good as a MLB, yet the Bills did manage to snag a playoff game and field, at least, a middling D. I would say our current DL of Von Miller (hopefully) - Ed Oliver - DaQuan Jones - Greg Rousseau is better than what we fielded in 2017 CB, if healthy again, Tre White and Kaiir Elam has potential to be better than Tre White (rookie) and EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright Safety, same guys! Older and wiser, so maybe that's a push Nickle, Taron Johnson is very good LB - Milano is now a Force. So whoever is the MLB in 2023 should have a lot more quality pieces around him. We may not be a #2 D or maybe not a top-10 D, but we can hopefully get 'er done.

I think there's some of that. In 2021, Davis played 571 snaps and caught 35 receptions for 549 yds In 2022, Davis played 926 snaps. Scaling by number of snaps, we'd predict 57 receptions for 890 yds. He actually had 48 receptions for 836 yds, so he fell off from (or under-performed) a scaled expectation by 9 receptions and 54 yds. But I think people were expecting him to improve at least a little bit, not to fall off, and most of all to improve his 7.9% drop % of 2021 instead of having it increase to 9.7%. Why? How is that different from expecting him to take it to the next level last season?

Reminds you of Kelvin Benjamin? Seriously? Because there is not one little thing about Gabe Davis that reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin at all. Well, they're both WR and they're both Black, one plays for the Bills now and one used to play for the Bills once upon a time. But other than that?

Arizona wants teams to give them a 1st in order to take on DHop's $19.45M salary this year and $14.92 next season?

At the very least, we need better competition for Spencer Brown than Quessenberry. IMHO, we need a 2nd 3TDT. Von has said he needs someone putting pressure up the middle to be most effective. He praised Phillips, earlier in the season when he was healthy. Ed Oliver by himself is probably not enough. Good question if Shakir will step up, but I don't want to count on it. Harty and Sherfield may contribute at #3/#4 also, but again...don't want to count

Clickbait headline. Sounds to me as though David was already talking to the Bucs, with whom he signed for 1 year, $7M My guess is that if the Bills had thought they wanted to pay more than that, or give him a longer deal that could effectively pay more than that, they would have recruited him, had Miller and Allen hitting him up and so forth. But given what they re-signed Po for, the Bills probably had something along those lines in mind (or less) where their cap hit this season would be under $5M while, in order to be interested in moving from Tampa to Buffalo and paying half his salary in NYS taxes (sarcasm), David either didn't want to commit to 2 years or wanted more like 2 years, $16-20M and the Bills were out.

Stop Making Sense

Why do you say that? I'm asking as a serious question, because AFAIK there are only 5 or so teams in the NFL that have a tandem of receivers where both have over 1000 yds. (targets in parens) Eagles: AJ Brown (145) and Davonta Smith (136) Bengals: Chase (134) and Higgins (109) Seahawks: Metcalf (141) and Lockett (117) Dolphins: Hill (170) and Waddle (117) Buccaneers: Evans (127) and Goodwin (142) KC had a >1000 yd tandem 2022 in Hill (159, 1239) and Kelce (134, 1125), and came close 2022 with Kelce (152, 1338 yds) and TikTokBoi (101, 933 yds) Other successful offenses have kind of a "Star and Guyz" model, where their #1 gets well over 1000 yds and then 2 or 3 other guys spread it around. Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb (156) and then Schultz/Brown/Gallup (89/74/74) Lions with St Brown (146) and then Raymond/Chark/Reynolds (70/64/59) Vikings with Jefferson (184) and then Thielen/Osborn/Hockinson (107/90/86) Jaguars with Kirk (133) and then Zay Jones/Engram/Marvin Jones (121/98/81) The Chargers were a "third hand" because their top receiver by targets was their RB Eckeler. They didn't have a receiver with >1000 yds but instead had 6 WR with more than 500 yds, making them the #3 passing offense for yards. The teams which have two 1000 yd guys, have 2 guys with over 100 targets and sometimes distribute the targets pretty equally. Teams which are more a "star and guys" offense, seem to have 1 guy getting >150 targets and everyone else <100 (Zay Jones on the Jags and Thielen on the Vikes exceptions where their targets exceeded their yardage production) My point is that there are different ways to run an offense, and I'm not sure what the Bills are really trying to do. They kind of seemed bi-polar. The Bills have Diggs (154 targets, 1429 yds) then Davis (93/836), Knox (65/517) and McKenzie (65/423). If they're trying to follow a "two top guys" model, then sure, Davis didn't get enough targets and he didn't catch enough of them. On the other hand, if they're trying to follow a "Star and Guyz" model where they spread it around, then the problem might not be Davis not having enough targets/yards; the problem might be not getting enough targets and yards out of Knox and McKenzie. In the latter case, the solution isn't to get a 1B or a better #2 WR to supplant Davis, the solution is to get better production at TE and from #3/#4. Where I say the Bills seemed kind of bipolar, is that I felt Allen consistently tried to force the ball in to Davis when he was double-covered as though determined to make him a #1B or top #2 WR. But then we'd get to the press conferences and Dorsey would say things about being a better offense when we're spreading the ball around more and Allen would say stuff about needing to find open guys and get them the ball more and spread it around. Anyway @Shaw66, this harkens back to where you said that the Bills don't need a #1B receiver because KC didn't even have a #1A WR and won the Superbowl. And while I still hold to it that KC, in fact, had a top receiver last year - his position is just TE not WR - in that discussion I don't think I stepped back enough to Ack what may have been your underlying point that there ARE top offenses which don't have a 1A and 1B WR, and that the Eagles, Bengals, Seahawks, Dolphins (and maybe Chiefs) are not the only way to run a top offense. For reference, the top offense on points scored last season were Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars Top passing offenses were Chiefs, Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins, Vikes, Lions, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Jaguars. I omitted the 49ers from the discussion because of their QB situation - too hard to tell what they were trying to do But anyway, half of the top scoring offenses last season didn't have two >1000 yd receivers and same is true of 4/10 top passing offenses.

6 of the 19 missed games. He was suspended 6 games. What's unknown is how many of those games he might have missed or been less effective for had he not taken whatever PED he took to try to accelerate healing of his MCL injury - and since it 'flared up" at the end of the season, is it really Good to Go? The perceivable drop off in Hopkins' play was in 2021, when he had rib and hamstring injuries which apparently hampered him while he was playing, and dropped from his usual 7 receptions and 78-80 YPG to 4 receptions and 57 ypg. He wasn't hampered whilst playing in 2022, but he missed the first 6 games of the season (suspended) and the last 2 (flare up of knee injury), so it's a good question whether he could still maintain production over, say, a 20 or 21 game season at this point. I think the Hopkins effect on OL, is that if the Bills spend their entire FA wad on Hopkins vs. picking up a capable DL or LB as FA continues, they're more likely to go heavy on D in the draft instead of drafting OL and WR. Just my opinion and I'd love to be wrong. I don't think the Bills will add a Day 1 or Day 2 OL pick if they sign DHop, for the preceding reason. OH, Ho ho. Since you ask: Tristan Wirfs (RT, Tampa) Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)

Hopkins has been "the main man" in terms of Y/G and R/G, basically, every season since 2015 except 2021 when he was hampered by rib and hammie issues and went "even steven" with Christian Kirk. And most of those years it hasn't been close. Does Hopkins and his Ego know that we don't have to feed him "like the main man"?

OK - but is DHop really the missing piece between the Bills and a SuperBowl Chance? Keep in mind, again, he's missed 19 out of the last 2 years 34 games, and that it's hard to throw completions if the QB is running his way out of trouble or getting hurried. Von Miller wasn't the missing piece between the Bills and a Superbowl last season because he had a season-ending injury, an ACL. DHop missed the last 5 games of 2021 with a season ending injury, an MCL tear, and had a 'flare up' costing 2 games at the end of 2022. I mean, if the Bills win the Superbowl next year or in 2025, the way I am now, I'm personally all about living through a tear-down. But that's not what Beane claims they want to do. So signing DHop might be incompatible with his claimed goals. And also - if fan talk about cap considerations bothers you, why not just move on by and find something that does interest you instead of railing at people who do like to think about these things?