Beck Water

For calibration purposes, check out his take on Dalton Kincaid from last June, quoted here: I would like to see an exact quote or a transcript where he says those words.

OK, so "usually" = last 6 years. Got it. Just realize that another way to look at it is Mahomes has won 50%, which is a coin toss. Now of course, getting the chance to flip that coin, is outstanding. But I do kind of wonder if KC might be getting a little full of themselves.

Chandler's post of his scouting assessment/highlight film got me looking for the "predict his stats" thread from last June, found here: Apologies for 2 Kincaid threads on the board at once, but since I put a good bit of work into this and it references an old thread, I thought it deserved its own play. Mods, if you disagree and merge, I won't be salty. Since I'm trying to learn the stats functions in LibreOffice, I decided to tablulate. Did the first 10 pages of a 14 page thread because I ran out of room on the paper I jotted things on. Eliminated obvious jokesters and incomplete predictions. Average prediction: 52 receptions, 551 yds, 6 TD Standard deviation: +/- 19 receptions, 252 yds, 2 TD Range: 9-109 receptions, 108-1376 yds, 2-13 TD (and yes, I did eliminate a couple of obvious jokesters, the outlandish ones I included seemed serious) Dalton's actual stats: 73 receptions, 673 yds, 2 TD. So "on average" he exceeded expectations except in the matter of TD. He played 63% of offensive snaps. Special mention to @NewEra, @Kirby Jackson, and especially @KingBoots8 who nailed his catches and yards almost exactly. I will give their judgement a little *bump* in my mind going forward: and a special raspberry to a guy who is either Eyore as a Bills fan, or a troll, @KDIGGZ for his take. Calibrate everything he says on this board accordingly.

We see from the record, that he had 4 drops on 91 targets (comparison: Knox as rookie 10 drops on 50 targets; Shakir as rookie 2 drops on 20 targets) He had an 80% catch rate. I don't understand how that gets described as "numerous drops". If you're catching 80% as a rookie, that's, like, Good. Also from the record, 46% of his yards, were YAC. So he may be avoiding/breaking more tackles than you think. Agree completely here. We had a number of run plays or screens blown up where Kincaid was asked to block in-line and just straight-out whiffed. He did a lot better downfield where what's needed is to be in the right place at the right time to just get in the way long enough to prevent the tackle.

I disagree some with some of what Chandler posted, but he's right that Kincaid is not an impressive blocker.

Actually, I think if Diggs were asked not to post stuff on social he would behave like a decent rational human being and....not post stuff on social. OK, I googled and found this: https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2023/04/19/kansas-city-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-2023-nfl-offseason-texas-workouts-better-game-plan-2023/ Looks like he has workout sessions in mid-April around a team virtual Phase I OTA, good for him. We really don't know what Allen is or isn't doing at that time, but I'm pretty sure the Bills had on-site OTA Phase I, so different situation.

Except of course for Brady's 7 superbowl or conference losses, and of course, since Mahomes was drafted Chiefs have 3 SB wins and 3 SB or conf. losses. So, what does "usually" mean to you?

I thought she was a soccer player? When do soccer players have time to tend bar, and don't they use depo these days? But fair point, fair point.

Some of these podcasts I've watched, and you are seriously misrepresenting what Allen actually said. He never said his off-season plan was to "play at every single PGA major golf course" in one off season, it was a lifetime bucket list. Last off season, I actually transcribed what he said on the Bussin' with the Boys podcast and it wasn't "I don't watch film", he agreed he was a "big film watcher" then said "I don't like to OVER watch film" and went on to explain that if he starts anticipating what the defense is going to do and then they're showing him something very different, it throws him off. I seem to recall actually having this discussion with you after those podcasts. I think you're just a troll at this point, but if you actually are a Bills fan but you can't figure out 1) how to listen carefully 2) how to put what's said on an entertainment podcast in context as not representing the sum total of 4 months of a guy's life, You Do You - go ahead and feel like Josh Allen has slapped you in the face. I bet you got off on it. Me, I don't think Josh Allen is a "slap in the face" kind of guy. He seems pretty chill and mellow to me, but if he did get riled enough to go physical, I bet he'd punch, and punch hard. Well, hey, busted clocks manage "right" two times daily, so.....

That is actually not what he said, especially not the "uses camp to get in shape". If you feel you know different - post receipts.

He does enough to be a winner most of the time, the question is, what, if anything, does he need to do different or more to be a champion? I don't know the answer to that but 1) neither does anyone else here 2) an off season workout photo op or throwing session may or may not be what he needs.

I suspect you're right. The difference, to me, is that people can analyze what our offense was doing or not doing from actual film of actual games, and analyze Allen's actual performance in games - the throws he took, or didn't take - and come up with fact-based ideas of what needs to get fixed both with the offense and with Allen's game as a pro-QB. Which, I'll say it, as good as it was, could be better. We could have conversations about that. But this whole nit-picking thread "does Josh still work as hard in the off-season" based on little information about how the man actually spends his off-season is crap.

You know, there's a lot of room between saying or considering something bad about Allen - which, I actually do, up thread here? and just Making ***** Up, which seems to be what a lot of people are doing in this thread, based on.....wait, let me see....absolutely no factual knowledge or information.

The Bills social media team? Of course they wouldn't be on top of it. Do you think it's the Chiefs social media team putting out that photo of Mahomes in the gym with Rice and Brown? Hint: It is not. The NFL/NFLPA CBA has strict rules about off-season coach and team contact with players. Having the Bills social media team "on top of it" would give the appearance of a team-sanctioned or team-supported or even team-organized workout, which would be a big No No. If (say) Josh had receivers staying at his house in Cali and working out at a local field, but told them all "I like to keep my off-season private, no Instagrams please" do you think they'd post anyway? Or would they respect him? How do you know Mahomes holds "annual offseason camps"? How long are these camps? Where and when are they? Let's hear the details since you're informed. While you're at it, Allen had a UCL tear mid-season last year. What were his medical advisors directions for his off-season workouts? He had a shoulder sprain mid season this year. What were his medical team's directions for his off season this year? Tell us about that. I'm not saying Mahomes hasn't or won't hold sessions with his receivers or isn't 'driven', but "holding annual camps" from a single photo in a gym and maybe a mention of some guys working out with him last off season seems like a creation. And truthfully, the KC offense started the season rather out-of-sync and finished 15th in points scored. They had 8 games decided by 7 points or less, 4 of which they lost, and were carried in many games by their kick-ass #2 defense. The Bills, for all the complaining here, finished 6th in offense. The difference is: KC put it all together and won the games when it counts, offense and defense. Just maybe ........ an off season "receiver camp" (or workout) doesn't move the needle too much on how aligned the QB and receiver actually are during the start of the season?

How would "asking ourselves" provide this information? Does the person you're speaking to actually know Sean McDermott? Do you? We have as little idea about what McDermott does in the off-season to be a better HC, as we do about the details of Allen's off-season work other than that he was seen in Paris with Hailee Steinfeld one day (he was photographed and it was posted on social media, so it happened). I'm not on Team Keep McDermott, but the bit about "replace with any other HC and the team still wins the division" is pretty clearly baloney.

It is pretty clear that last season, our offense wasn't good enough at times and certainly in our opening game against the Jets Josh played pretty poorly. So whatever went into that, needs to get fixed, and Josh needs to start the season dialed in. I have my ideas what that is, but I don't know for sure.

The point is: we don't know if our newly signed receiver has or has not met with our QB. What we know is, it hasn't shown up on social media. We also know our QB likes to keep his private life private and talked about deleting his social media (he has a twitter and instagram but they look like they're in the hands of an agent and just re-post other people's stuff and advertising committments). IIRC, Dalton Kincaid mentioned during one interview early in last season "working with Josh" after the draft last off season, but nothing was posted on SM or said at the time (so it must not have happened) and we have people here posting about how Josh never meets with receivers off season. We also don't know the scope of the abovementioned and pictured workout - weeks? days? a day? lifting? throwing? But hey, it's a picture on social media so it must be a Big Thing showing Big Things. Yes, it shows they have a good culture and mentality. Good for them. But again - the absence of stuff on social media doesn't mean the absence of stuff. People in this day and age seem to get confused about that. You don't know whether Allen met or plans to meet with Samuel or anyone else. but this post of yours drips with assuming they didn't or won't.

It depends on how they play. I'll put it out there, from what I've seen of Fields, I haven't been that impressed. Pickett has shown flashes to me - I would have liked to see him behind a decent OL. But, look at what Pittsburgh is paying Wilson. Vet minimum - $1.2M. Fields is getting $3.23M Tomlin has a history of benching QB if they're not meeting his standard for how they play and not giving a rat's ass if the guy he puts on the field has a shorter pedigree or was drafted lower or is getting paid more. See Hodges, Duck. Wilson is in "Pole Position", that's all we know. I'm not saying Fields will play. I'm just saying Wilson's leash may be shorter than you think, and Tomlin won't be afraid to yank on it. I'd laugh except the Bills just re-signed Mitch Trubisky

Is your metric for how hard someone is working in the off season, what they post on social media?

That he stopped doing as much because he believes the difference between himself and Pat Mahomes is a coin flip? Baloney. Receipts or it never happened. What took you so long?

I mean, none of us knows exactly how hard Josh works in the off season, right? Anyone here his neighbor on Dana Point? Walk Jordan Palmer's dog? Stake out the parking lot outside Chris Hess' business? Got motion activated cameras on all the HS and college fields within reasonable driving distance? Don't forget to put some kind of high tech bit logger on his internet so you can tell if he's breaking down football film, or gaming. So let me get this straight - you want to start with a topic where no one here knows ***** about how Josh works now vs. how he used to work. Then you want to have us all wildly speculate, and call it a conversation? That's it? That's what's going on here?

Did they say whether Williams nomm'd down on it? At one point after he'd been here a year or two Cole Beasley revealed that when he landed in Buffalo to do his physical and sign after agreeing to his deal, some fans met him at the airport with chicken wings. The host of the show asked kind of incredulously "did you eat them?" Beasley said "yeah, I ate them - they were GOOD!"

Congratulations! You've become this year's Lucky Winner of the "I believe these guys on our roster are JAGS, thus we should trade them...and because they are JAGS, other teams will be salivating to swap our late 1st for their top-10 1st!" The Bills used two 2nd round picks to move from #12 to #7 for Allen. They had previously used Cordy Glenn (who played 2 more years for Cincy) to move from #21 to #12. Are you honestly suggesting that as we stand today, teams would see Knox and Jackson as better than a LT and 2 2nd round picks?

No one is trading Aiyuk or a 1st round pick for Diggs.

I hadn't thought of that - Good one