Billy Claude
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Posts posted by Billy Claude
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I am not disappointed because I didn't expect anything from a 35 year old coming off a ACL. If you want to blame somebody, blame the coaching staff for playing him so many snaps.
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Here is the data from the last 5 years to put it into context. Opponent first and then the Bills' kicker.
2019 14/24 (58%!) 22/28 (79% Hauschka)
2020 23/25 (92%) 28/34 (82% Bass)
2021 23/25 (92%) 28/32 (88%)
2022 21/28 (75%) 27/31 (87%)
2023 26/27 (96%) 22/27 (79%)
5 years
opp = 107/129 (83%) Bills = 127/152 (84%)
4 years (Bass only)
opp = 93/105 (89%) Bass = 105/124 (85%)
3 years (Bass only -- not including this year)
opp = 67/78 (86%) Bass = 83/97 (86%)
League average in 2022 was 86% so Bills have been unlucky. The evidence also indicates that Bass is a good kicker who is having a bad year. He is good enough for what the Bills need but not elite even accounting for weather.
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10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:
12 INTs in the 14 games since week 1. Not a big deal especially since it feels like most are never in a spot that’s hurt us.
That's really selective memory. I guess you are throwing out the first Jets game, but even with the Charger's game; Bills are up 14-10, Chargers offense hasn't done much since the opening drive. Allen throws int and the Chargers get a field goal on the short field to make it 14-13. Do you need to go for the jugular there? Eagles game; Bills up 24-21, Allen throws interception, Eagles score to take the lead at 28-24. Both of these interceptions were on second down.
These are the ones that I came up with off the top of my head but there were other cases where the Bills offense finally seem to be getting some rhythm only for the momentum to be completely killed due to a totally unforced turnover. Obviously the first Jets game this year and last year's Miami game comes to mind but there were others this year. When multiple opponents talk about how they bait Allen into interceptions, you've got a problem and it should be a problem that can be easily fixed (maybe it has -- no one has said that during the 2nd half of the season).
I just don't understand the blind hero worship where one has to ignore or come up with an excuse for everything that your "guy" does (not just Allen, but in general). This does not mean I hate Allen. He is an elite QB -- the Bills obviously would be nowhere without him, however, he can be an all time great if he just fixes some flaws. I see no reason why he can't reduce his turnovers a bit without killing his style.
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Folks who think that there's nothing that can be done for the turnovers must think that Allen is a real idiot.
Is it really impossible for Allen to learn enough after 6 years to reduce his turnover by 20% without crimping his style? He has already reduced his fumbles from 13 last year to 4 this year. Why can't he cut his interceptions a little bit also? One would have hoped his judgement could be improved to that extent.
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17 minutes ago, jcamm1966 said:
NFL network just said entire staff coming back
That is a incredibly Jetsy. At least replace the online coach.
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I dislike the double standard. Knox drops a few passes with a broken hand and everybody calls him a bum. Allen has a bad game and it must be injury/oline/receivers/coaching. Allen is a great QB with flaws. If he can ever clean them up he would be GOAT.
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I have no problem with winning this game ugly. Every team has a bad game sometimes and good teams pull out the win. If this happens again in New England, then they will be a one and done team if they even get into the playoffs.
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2 hours ago, mannc said:
I don’t think so. I remember Justin Tucker missed one or two in the Ravens playoff game in Buffalo, but there was a ton of wind. That’s the only miss I can remember vs the Bills, but maybe NE also missed one in The Wind Game.
The original question I was responding to was has kickers kicked unusually well against the Bills over many seasons? This interested me enough to go look at the data. Considering regular season only, in 2022, FG kickers against the Bills were 21/28 (75%) while Bass was 27/31 (87% - his best year). No one noticed because the Bills were blowing people out.
2019 was the year I remembered there were a lot of crucial miss kicks by opponents.
In game 1,the Jets kicker (Vedvik) was 0/1 on FG and missed an extra point in a game the Bills won 17-16. He was replaced after two games.
In game 5, the Titans kicker (Santos) was 0/4 and was immediately replaced after the game. Bills won 14-7. This was also the last game Mariota started before being replaced by Tannehill.
Since the Bills barely made the playoffs that year each game was important.
Overall in 2019, Hauschka was 22/28 (78%) while opponent kickers were a horrible 14/24 (58%). A lot of lucky things went the Bills way that year. I think people want to believe the refs/ league/ universe has something against the Bills but tend to never remember when luck goes their way.
Given that, there is no doubt that the Bills have been very unlucky this season.
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8 hours ago, mannc said:
Yes, I believe so. And it’s not just this year…the phenomenon of Bills’ opposing kicker infallibility goes back a long time…
I don't think this is true. Certainly in 2019 there was a couple of kickers who were replaced right after they played the BiIls because they missed a big kick or missed multiple kicks.
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8 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:
Why wouldn't they? What difference does it make if it's a first round pick or a 5th round pick?
First, later round picks are already behind the 8-ball money wise. Now you are restricting them even further from getting what the market might be willing to give them.
Second, teams obviously do not always use their 5th year extensions on their first round picks, now you are allowing them use their unexercised extension on a a player that they were not going to be able to restrict before.
In the end, it will be a net lost for the players and a net gain for the teams. No union would accept rules that will decrease their overall pay and flexibility without some giveback from management.
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13 minutes ago, boyst said:
Oh, please do not believe I am thinking that players leave here and become all stars. Unless you count Justin armour, kamar Aiken, Chris Hogan, Harrison phillips, Tremaine Edmonds, Ray Ray McCloud, Dustin hopkins, jabari Greer, that wild goose kid.... Those are immortal Stars that cannot be refuted 😜
I don't get your point. Your original argument was that the Bills were bad at evaluating vets because they should have kept Teller and Van Roten. The people you listed are JAGs or folks from way before Beane (Hopkins, Greer) or way too expensive (Tremaine Edmunds -- a decent player but not worth the money the Bears gave him). So are you saying the Bills are okay at evaluating vets?
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25 minutes ago, boyst said:
I've always been on a build from the inside out train. I didn't want scrubs like Sherfield or Harty here. I didn't want to overspend on JAG WRs. Josh can make decent WR's good. But not midgets.
I didn't like signing Felciano, he was a wannabe brute but he was tougher than the candy asses we had. I did not like saffold. I thought Bates was the good swing interior guy, and wanted youth over older vets at the time we were growing and lowladed at other talent.
Include the evaluation of veterans and we have been sub par.
It is true that the Bills have not been great signing vet F.A. until this year.
However, I have no idea where this narrative that players leave the Bills to become stars come from. Outside of Teller which was 5 years ago, which players would Beane regret that that the Bills did not resign?
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43 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:
Rookie mistake. I see a lot of newbies do this in a new relationship. Jewelry, vacations, expensive electronics. Then how are you going to match or top that every year 5, 10, 15 years later? You need to keep expectations in check. It's not a track meet, it's a marathon. Pace yourself
Year 1 = Applebee's gift card
Year 2 = not applicable
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4 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:
You need to factor in the entire sentence together. I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens. There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about. I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like. I figured others might be too and shared my work. It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen
it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything. When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.
I don't know why you are getting such grief. Maybe if you change "somewhat probable" to "least improbable". Of course you would still get hit by the don't speak evil into existence karma folks.
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1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Van roten has not and I bet he won’t. This is a story about someone’s opinion on who should make the pro bowl. I mean Jacob’s is having a terrible year and he is one fifth of that. Not sure I’d be is deserving or not but it is at least surprising someone does. Either a hot take or he is outperforming what most thought of him.
It is true that it is just some random media guy's opinion, however, the fact that anyone outside of his mother/wife believes that he might make the pro-bowl is still pretty surprising considering how bad he was with the Bills and the Jets and how mediocre he has been his whole career.
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5 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:
Why doesn't the NFL allow the 5th year option on any player you draft? Someone may not hit on a first round pick but nail a 2nd or 3rd rounder that they would like to hang on to, I feel like they should be able to do so. This would allow us to keep Epenesa next year at a possible discount and would make it easier to possibly also retain Floyd
It takes two to tango. Why would the NFLPA ever agree to something like that?
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3 minutes ago, boyst said:
if we had kept Teller and Van Roten and evaluated LB's properly in the draft we might not have needed to use resources on the line we have now. just sayin.
I don't think you can blame the Bills. Plenty of other teams had him evaluated him as barely a JAG before the Bills released him.
If the question was "Which former 2022 Bill would make the Pro Bowl", he would have been pretty low on my list.
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1 hour ago, Warcodered said:
Didn't Saffold make the Probowl last year?
This is different from the Saffold situation, Saffold was living off his reputation while Van Roten's reputation was that he was just horrible with the Jets and with the Bills. If Van Roten actually makes the pro-bowl he has to be having the best year of his career.
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Did Boras miss any cliches?
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On 12/18/2023 at 12:01 PM, JackKemp said:
Did you se how Rapp tried to go over Prescott? Also that was a last nanosecond slide by Precott that helped create that situation.
Holy confirmation bias. How could Prescott possibly have slid at the last nanosecond if Rapp actually dove over him?
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39 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
ST unit has been below average this season. Not tragic, but its not been its usual solid self. They haven't let up too many big returns (I think the Jets return was the only TD let up and about 2 other decent-sized chunk returns from my memory) but they haven't made many plays either (the second Jets game fumble being the only "big" play). The punting has been OK to below average and the kicking has been poor (Out of eligible kickers Bass is ranked 23rd in accuracy and has only attempted 6 Field Goals over 50 yards a fairly average amount of difficult kicks).
The ST unit cost this team a game with an unforced error (the Broncos mishap), the ST unit mistake against the Jets ended up being the final nail in the coffin in the opener, and Bass's missed kicks probably cost this team a chance to be in a better position to win the Eagles game and the Pats game. Bass's missed kicks also put this team in a very dangerous position against the Giants where they could have easily lost that game.
It's not been a great season for the ST unit. The ST unit in 2022 was one of this team's strengths and was a factor in the teams 13 win record. The ST unit helped win a pair of games with the clutch Bass kick against the Lions on Thanksgiving and the Hines pair of TD returns against the Pats (which kept the Bills from being behind the eight ball in a slow start to the game on the other sides of the ball). Bass kicked less from outside 50 so I can't say his accuracy was dramatically better in 2022 but Martin was punting a lot better and the coverage units were more solid.
Overall the ST unit last season was a above average to lower top 10 unit. This year the unit is probably decidedly below average and probably ranked in the lower 20's and its made a difference thus far in the teams record.
Your analysis is great except for the part about the ST unit not being football "tragic". When the special teams has directly lost two games (and indirectly lost more than two games due to high percentage makeable miss field goals and the lack of confidence in the kicker adversely affecting in game decisions) and your fighting for a playoff spot than that is definitely "tragic" in a football sense.
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2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:
Roflmao his D stunk up here in NE!!! OMG the fools with all that talent and you give it to rocket scientist Patricia! OMG… I may pee myself laughing.
Agreed. I don't understand how Patricia got the job in Detroit in the first place. The Patriots defense was 2nd worse in yards per play and 4th worse in total yards given up in Patricia's last year as D.C. in New England. Their defense also gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl that year. Partly the stats are due to teams playing from behind but being 31st in an important defensive metric is not good no matter how you parse it.
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Every questionable call went the Bills' way.
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Obvious solution, offense fumbles out of bounds, 5 yard penalty from spot of fumble, plus loss of down.
The same rule applies everywhere except in the offense's own end zone where it counts as a safety similar to the way a holding call in the end zone would.
That would give you a consistent set of rules everywhere on the field. If you make it a 10-yard penalty, it would effectively be the same as illegal batting and the referee would not have to judge whether the offensive player intentionally knocked it out of bounds or not.
Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Just to add to this, the Jaguar game was the first game the Bills have lost in four years (since 2020) where the Bills actually had fewer turnovers than the opponents.