Billy Claude
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Posts posted by Billy Claude
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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:
how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??
5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge. Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.
So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3? According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.
once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE. Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.
Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.
I feel a that this is not the relevant cost benefit analysis. Since only about 30 to 40 percent of 7th round picks actually make a roster, the majority are getting practice squad money, not a million a year although this is still more than most NIL money. More importantly, most NFL careers end not because of age but because the NFL decides you are not good enough. For the majority of 7th round draft choices delaying your entry in the NFL will not affect your lifetime NFL earnings at all, simply push it back a year.
So if you are enjoying life in college I can understand why you would stay one more year. Staying comes with risks such as a bad year or injuries making one less attractive for the NFL, however, declaring for the draft if you expect to be a 7th rounder also comes with the risk that you will not be drafted and there is a chance to improve your draft stock also.
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9 minutes ago, Chaos said:
If he is considered a first round NFL draft pick Steve Young is the correct answer to the question. If he not considered a first round draft pick he is not part of the discussion.
Sure, but there was certainly high first round expectations associated with him when he joined Tampa Bay. -
I don't see how the best example is not Steve Young.
He wasn't part of the regular NFL draft because he signed a 10 year contract with the USFL but he was the first pick in the special USFL/CFL supplemental draft by Tampa Bay. Three of the first four players picked in that draft are in the Hall of Fame, including Reggie White. Young started for two years in Tampa Bay and was absolutely regarded as a bust and then traded for a late second and fourth to the 49ers, which is about what Arizona got for Josh Rosen.
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2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
These two points are so wrong for so many reasons.
1) The idea that Diggs was the only guy on the team that wanted to win is ridiculous on its face. Sure, Diggs worked hard to project the image of the only one who cared but IMO he was posturing most of that time. I think back to his standing there in Arrowhead Stadium watching the Chiefs celebrate their conference championship win. Talk about a posed Kodak picture moment.
And the idea that Allen doesn't care about winning is based on what exactly? Your perception that in the first couple of months after the season ends the guy actually lives his life? I don't know where this came from but its a meritless smear IMO.
2) And to say that the reason Allen hasn't won a Super Bowl yet is because he doesn't "put the mental work in" is flat out crazy talk. So you think if Allen had spent the off season studying how not to let your Special Teams and Defense blow a 3 point lead with only 13 seconds left would have helped? Because I'm wondering what more then leading the Bills on TWO late 4th quarter TD drives could a more mentally prepared Allen have done in that game.
That's crediting Diggs with supervillian level scheming. I highly doubted he was thinking "hey, we just lost the game in a heart-breaking manner, if I stay on the field and watch the Chiefs celebrate, I'll look good and my teammates will look bad".
Just because, he was a pain in the ass at the end doesn't mean one needs to discredit everything about the guy his contributions to the Bills.
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3 hours ago, Mat68 said:
Diggs believes he made Allen who he is now. Now Diggs best years were with Allen but he wont admit that. Same with Beasley. Different dynamic. Whether it be one of the top 3 wrs or mid rounder they all will see Allen as the guy. Diggs and Beasley seem/seemed almost jealous of his found notoriety and fame.
The Beasley comment was because people were fans were saying that the Bills were all Allen and there he had no talent around him. It was reasonable that he would be somewhat offended by that. I didn't follow the Diggs response but other posters have pointed out some of it was because Bills fans were saying absolutely abhorrent things about him after he expressed condolences following Vontae Davis's death.
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3 million is not much considering how much he was paid and that it will be difficult for him to ever get another NFL job.
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Would Jared Goff count?
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Ryan Tannehill.
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Steve Young obviously.
Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh.
Geno Smith?
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6 hours ago, finn said:
That could just be the laws of probability at work. If every team just threw darts at their draft board, at least some would have good results.
I've always thought the best draft strategy, at least for teams drafting high, would be to trade down incrementally for as many second-round picks as possible, and do the same from the other direction, trading up into the second round. End up with, say, six or seven second-round picks. The odds of hitting gold seem much higher than just two high picks.
I feel this is basically the strategy the Patriots did during between 2000-2010. They might have had close to as many trade ups as trade downs but almost all the first round trades were trade downs.
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I don't believe it is a total crap shoot but it is much more random than most fans, and probably most NFL executives think. The analogy with blackjack is probably more accurate than a lottery. There's a lot of randomness hand to hand but really bad players i.e., Cleveland Browns between 2011-2015, are almost guaranteed to lose.
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1 hour ago, tonawandarock said:
no one will ever convince me that PM would be as great as he is without Reid coaching him. Reid worked wonders with mcnabb and alex smith(who was past his "prime.") Vick had his best passing numbers after his suspension under Reid. we will never see JA's ceiling unless the bills get a top 10 OC. losing the home playoff game against KC was nearly as bad as the 13s game. POOR COACHING!
How was Alex Smith past his prime? He was 27 ot 28 when he was traded to Kansas City, pretty much entering the prime years for a QB. Secondly, it wasn't Andy Reid that worked the miracle with Alex Smith, it was Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh took someone who looked like a all-time bust and made Smith a pretty good QB before he was traded to KC. As for McNabb, he was the #2 pick in his draft year. Andy Reid did a great job with him, but it wasn't like McNabb was a unknown UDFA.
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7 hours ago, Beck Water said:
No. He'll be given a chance to compete, but he would have to wow everyone or (avert) there would have to be an injury.
He's not just a "camp body" as some suggested, though, because they did fully guarantee $1.5M salary + signing bonus - suggesting they are considering him as a backup they would want to keep.
Yes, I over-reacted to the up to 6.5 M. I had expected the guaranteed money to be closer to 3.5M to 4 M similar to the ratio of gauranteed to incentives that Rapp got.
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11 hours ago, smward8 said:
I'm curious how Shorter and Hamlet figure into the mix. Shorter is kind of like Davis, and Hamler, when he isn't injured, is a speed guy who can stretch the field.
I would be extremely happy and very shocked if Shorter gets anywhere close to Gabe Davis production levels. I don't remember hearing anything good out of him in rookie camp, mini-camp, or training camp and that's the time you usually get stories about how players like Isaiah Hodgins, Brandon Riley, and Austin Poehl might be a poor man's Jerry Rice.
People rag on Gabe Davis but he was productive in his role as evident, from the contract he got from the Jaguars.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
I don’t even follow Beasley. I don’t follow any players actually but it always ends up on my timeline.
What's wrong with that? I can understand Beasley being somewhat offended when fans say that it's all Allen and essentially, everyone else is a bum.
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5 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:
I've made bets on this forum before and willing to bet on this as well. If anyone wants to risk $10 or $20 , edey will go top 15. I wouldn't even be shocked at tip 10 or top 5 but for the sake of the bet im offering top 15.
I don't bet but are you saying Edey will be drafted in the top 15 or he wont be?
I am thinking probably early second round but maybe someone will take a flyer on him and pick him late in the first. See if he can develop into a poor man's Jokic.
He just seem to be too slow to be any more than a 10 minute a game guy in todays NBA.
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On 4/5/2024 at 12:22 PM, hondo in seattle said:
I was beat up for this post and ended up regretting it.
Yet things are now coming out. For example, Tim Graham's story about the end of the Jets game. Josh is sitting in the locker room feeling dejected. Dion Dawkins, being the awesome dude that he is, tells Josh, "17 for life. I mean that." Seveal other players come by to console Josh. But Diggs says something that Graham can't hear but apparently it's not something positive. Allen lashed out, "It's one f***ing game!"
Kyle Brandt, who may or may not have inside information, recently said Diggs's relationships with the Bills and Allen were "mercurial at best."
So all those "click-bait" journalist were right after all. Its hard to believe a few photos of Allen and Diggs giving each other pats in the back would be enough for people to believe that there weren't major issues in that relationship. I am just surprised that Diggs was professional enough not to go public during season.
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23 minutes ago, T master said:
True but getting rid of the rest of some what 3 years of Diggs contract is a definitely plus . Beane is up to something he's not going to go through all of this just because the man has been near genius to this point in building a team for today, tomorrow & the future so i'm going to sit back & enjoy the ride .
The only thing that really tweaks me off is i just bought a Diggs jersey last season 😒 any takers ???
No on the Diggs Jersey. Yes on given the locker room issues, it was better to rip off the bandaid earlier than later.
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1 minute ago, T master said:
They are both competitors Josh had a bad game threw a couple of picks to help them win with a less than average QB and Allen was probably rightfully pissed off in that they lost .
I don't believe that Diggs was that upset with the Bills i feel it was more about his age, his drop off in production last season, his catch rate in the play offs, and more th
The Pats use to do this kind of stuff all the time get rid of a really good player a year early rather than a year too late.
The difference is that the Pats rarely took huge cap hits doing that, at least until recently.
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11 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Definitely, DEFINITELY no one point out that he made the exact same amount of kicks from his great 2022 season (28) while only missing 2 more FGs the following year.
The point is his 2022 season was not great. It was good to very good. The Bills only lost three regular season games that year. Two of his four missed kicks were in games the Bills lost, both by three points or less.
This is not the 1980's NFL. He was the 12th best kicker by percentage in 2022. That is good not great. Bass has never been great.
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7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
I am hoping that Bass gets over his bad season. I like the man and the player.
He does need camp competition. I wouldn't mind a 7th round pick (or a priority UDFA) coming to camp.
I just (for the sake of discussion) want to disprove the "Bass's contract in too expensive to move on from" nonsense.
IF a rookie kicker was drafted in the 7th and made the team the $ numbers look like this.
Bass - Post June cut - $100k 2024 cap savings.
Rookie 7th rounder - $815k.
Bass has a 2025 $3M dead cap but due $4.7M. Equates to a cap savings of $1.7M, whereas the rookie would cost less than $1M.
The 2026, 2027 cap savings would be over $8M.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyler-bass-47784/
OK. I guess he could be cut without much pain. I would rather go with him than an unknown. At least, we know Bass has been a good kicker in the past.
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3 hours ago, Rigotz said:
Bass:
4 years in the league. 27 years old. Last year was rough.
In 2022 Bass was 27 for 31 including several clutch last minute kicks you might have forgotten.
In 2021 Bass was 28 for 32 with several clutch kicks ... again.
Butker:
7 years in the league. 28 years old. Last year he was great. The year before he was awful.
In 2022, Butker was 18 for 24 and also had a worse Extra Point % than Bass ever had.
The Chiefs had zero confidence in his kicking two years ago.
Did the Chiefs cry about it or cut Harrison Butker?
No. They let him play and get over his "yips" which is common for Kickers. He rewarded them.
Bass is still a good kicker. He just had a bad season.
It's going to be ok.
Those numbers you quoted are good to very good -- not anywhere close to elite; 87.5% in 2021 would have put Bass 13th in FG percentage out of all kickers who hit 20 or more field goals. 87.1% in 2022 would have put Bass 11th in FG% with the same criteria. The Bills only lost 3 games in 2022. Bass missed field goals in two of those games, both of which the Bills lost by 3 or less points. How clutch is that?
Tyler Butker has been in the NFL for 7 seasons. 2022 was the only season his field goal percentage was less than Bass's best season. He was over 90% in three out of the other six seasons. I think Butker gets a pass.
No one says to get rid of Bass.
The Bills can't get rid of him without pain anyway due to his contract.He at least was a good field goal kicker. That is all the Bills need and it's very risky bringing in someone else. Look at how many kickers the Jets have gone through before they seem to have finally found someone acceptable.Before people say you have to take weather conditions into account, this is true, but opponent field goal kickers have had a better FG% each of the last four years. I don't want to leave the impression that I think Bass is a bum, he is not. I just have never understood the impression from Bills fans that he is an elite kicker. He was perfectly adequate until last year.
Edit: as pointed out by ColoradoBills below. He can be cut with little cost.
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On 4/7/2024 at 12:56 AM, Beck Water said:
3) the latest is people dumping on Allen for Tim Graham's podcast revelation about the "it's only one ***** game" without the context of it being after the game, while Allen is sitting there taking the loss hard, still in his pads, and the rest of the team is coming over trying to lift him up, and whatever Diggs said wasn't reported (but Allen wasn't snapping at anyone else).
That's strange. The Graham's story was clearly meant to be sympathetic to Allen, not the other way around. Taken out of context I guess.
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1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:
Bass has been solid which is why he got paid what he did. I’m not writing him off because he missed a kick
It was way more than one kick. He was extremely undependable the last half of the season. Even his kick in the opener against the Jets that sent the game to overtime was a boink off the post.
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Do you think Allen feels relief after the Diggs trade?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Tyreek Hill.