Billy Claude
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Posts posted by Billy Claude
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2 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:
There's no guarantee that changes anything. Look at the Steelers. They changed OC's and they are still the same.
You probably didn't watch the game. Not many points but over 400 yards of offense. They looked nothing like they did under Canada.
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35 minutes ago, Just in Atlanta said:
He should feel guilty about bringing Nate Hackett to
Sean Payton was definitely right about Hackett. Broncos were last in 3rd down conversions last year at 29% and are at 38% this year and 38% in 2021. This year the Jets are at 24%, 5% below anybody else. Even last year the Jets were at 34%. He didn't even call plays in Green Bay. There's a lot of data that says Hackett is terrible at play calling. They have to fire him. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to walk away from all that money.
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Saleh/Douglas/Woody had no choice. Maybe if it was an away game they would have played Wilson another week but the game is in Jersey. Zach wouldn't have been able to make it out of the tunnel without a police escort if the fans thought he was starting.
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I will guess that they end up 9-8 or 10-7.
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1 hour ago, Xwnyer said:
they aren't afraid to throw the ball down field. Top offense in doing that. Motor was way under rated in Buffalo. Cook and Hines were brought in to add that dynamic pass catching RB that the dunce of an OC doesn't know how to scheme to.
To be fair to Dorsey, the Bills also refused to throw to running backs under Daboll.
Pretty much from his first season here, Beane has been bringing in pass catching running backs only to have them inactive or restricted to special teams on game day
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39 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:
I remember that. One could argue it’s likely because the first read is based on pre snap alignment and expectations, where the QB thinks he’s going to go with the ball (usually as a result of film study). I’d be curious how many other top QBs rank at the bottom in terms of throwing to their first read.
I don't remember the details but Tua was definitely one of the highest in the league and Mahomes was closer to Tua than to Allen.
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Wasn't there a thread three or four weeks back where @Einstein posted that Allen was less likely to go with the first read than almost any other QB in the league?
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This is one of the criticisms of McDermott that has some validity. I believe that the Bills have been one of the most penalized teams in the league since he got here. So this is clearly not one player nor one play but a long term coaching culture issue.
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OK. It is pretty understandable that he had a few drops given all the issues with his hands. The thing that is not understandable is, given the known injury issues with his hand, why the ball was being thrown to him in critical situations, or even why he was on the field in those situations.
Oops -- this was suppose to go into the Knox thread.
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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:
You clearly don’t get out much. 😉 There are MANY flights direct from LAX to just about everywhere in the world. Ours was on Virgin Atlantic but there are others.
Aha. I didn’t watch his show or hear the clip. But I’d did think it was funny that we saw him spill his red vines…which he was sucking down in the boarding area. And yes Heathrow was packed with Bills fans on Thursday morning when we arrived. But other than being a bit groggy from the flight, I didn’t see anyone doing anything other than greeting each other with the customary “Go Bills”!
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He didn't say they were behaving badly either. Just that there were a lot of them. They then made some folding table jokes afterwards but those wee just jokes.
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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:
Rich Eisen boarded the plane from LAX literally right in front of me on Wednesday afternoon. He was the last one on in upper class and we were right behind him in business class. He then proceeded to drop a bunch of red vines all over the boarding area. His ‘entourage’ was a total of two people and being as the flight was coming from Los Angeles I can honestly say I counted a total of THREE people wearing Bills gear. So In short, if he actually complained….sounds like he’s full of crap. ⁶⁵d
He didn't say anything about Bills fans on the plane. He just said there were lots of Bills fans at the passport check.
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5 hours ago, Beck Water said:
In short: No. And I've actually used some linear algebra in my daily life and understand what an Eigenvalue is.
Not surprised. You can guess who has a data/stat/math background on this board.
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4 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Yes, but he was very annoyed with fellow passengers who were .....talking to each other
Rich, three words for you....Noise Cancelling Headphones. Or EAR protectors. Control what you can control.
I believe it was a red eye. I can understand being somewhat annoyed especially if they are talking loudly.
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It seems like an interesting question how turnovers affect game outcomes, so I went back the last 20 regular season games, i.e., the 2022 season and the first four games of 2023.
The Bills had more turnovers 9 times. The Bills record is 5 wins and 4 losses in those games. This included two losses to the lowly Jets.The Bills has the same number of turnovers 3 times. They were 3-0 in those games
The Bills had less turnovers 8 times. They were 8-0 in those games.
Adding the data for the 2021 regular season.
The Bills had more turnovers 15 times. The Bills are 7 win and 8 losses in those games.
The Bills had the same number of turnovers as their opponents 7 times. They are 5 and 2 in those games.
The Bills had fewer turnovers than their opponents 15 times. They are 15 and 0 in those games.
The data does not support the idea that the impact of turnovers is exaggerated.
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11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
I think on balance tho, the Bills STILL win more than their opponent does when they turn the ball over at a higher rate tho don't they? I might check that just out of curiosity...however, the point still stands that by doing so they leave the door open a little bit for the other team to win the game whereas it stays shut and locked pretty much if they do not.
My guess is also that the Bills won more than 50% of games with more turnovers since the Bills win a lot of games and also have a lot of turnovers.
However, definitely if they don't lose the turnover battle, the Bills pretty much just don't lose, at least in the regular season.
I checked that the playoffs, the Bills had the same number of turnovers as their opponent in the first three losses. The Bills had more turnovers than the Bengals (1 to 0) but clearly turnovers were not why they lost that game,
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5 hours ago, Chaos said:
The impact of turnovers is hugely exaggerated. Bad teams lose. Bad teams have lots of turnovers. Bad teams lose because they are bad, not because they have turnovers. The situation you are discussing is an extreme example. However people underestimate the rump act of a punt. In the modern game the only difference between a punt and a turn over is average starting field position. Against the best offenses, ie Chiefs and Bills, starting field position is not a huge factor. Allen or Mahomes starting on their own 20, is more likely to result in points than Justin Fields starting at midfield.
5 hours ago, Big Turk said:True enough, MOST times even with a bunch of turnovers, the Bills are still kicking the other teams ass...however, WHEN they do lose, it usually is because turnovers happen in addition to them playing poorly, usually on offense. In other words, if they don't turn the ball over, this team isn't going to lose.
I disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.
I don't think the impact of turnovers are exaggerated. Since 2021, the Bills have lost 10 regular season games. They have more turnover than their opponents in 8 out of those 10 games. In the other two games they lost, each team had one turnover.
At least in the regular season, the Bills just don't lose if they don't turn the ball over.
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1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:
I don’t know. He still threw one of those “arm punt” INTs against Washington.
As someone who hates the interception is as good as a punt excuse, that one was actually justified. It was third and 20, there was no way a dump off was going to get you a first down and they were out of field goal position. I can understand Allen taking the risk there. That was one of the very few cases where the interception was actually as good as a punt.
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Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference. Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.
Air Yards Per Attempt
(2022)
#1 Mariotta 10.4
#2 Tagovailoa 9.5
#3 Allen 9.2
(2023)
#1 Love 10.2
#2 Tannehill 10.0
#3 Watson 9.5
#17 Allen 7.5
Completed Air Yards Per Completion
(2022)
#1 Tagovailoa 8.8
#2 Allen 7.5
#3 Mariotta 7.2
(2023)
#1 Garroppolo 7.8
#2 Love 7.5
#3 Stafford 7.4
#25 Allen 5.2
Yards After Catch per Completion
(2022)
#1 Garropolo 7.0
#2 Mahomes 6.6
#3 Z. Wilson 6.1
#32 Allen 4.6
(2023)
#1 Tagovailoa 6.4
#2 Richardson 6.2
#3 Stroud 6.1
#8 Allen 5.2
I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.
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4 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:
It appears I am wrong. Thanks for the info!
I appreciate your willingness to have an open mind. Its not very common on the internet.
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On 9/27/2023 at 12:31 AM, ndirish1978 said:
IMO most of his poor decisions are made when he's trying so hard to make a play because we're behind. We never should have been in the position to have to get a FG to tie the Jets game, he lost us that game and it shouldn't have even been close. There a dumb thing that happens on this board (not talking about you specifically) but I think we should be able to express concerns or doubts about our players without being accused of not being a fan. I'm not saying he sucks, I think he's great - I just worry about his decision-making mainly because I thought he was getting past this shaky part of his game and it's still rearing it's head.
On 9/27/2023 at 1:06 AM, Warcodered said:All of his turnovers in the Jets game were when we had the lead.
This narrative keeps being repeated but it is simply not even close to true that Allen's turnovers was because the Bills were behind. This is not only the case for this season's Jets game but in general.
Out of Allen's 19 2022 regular season turnovers, 12 of them were with the Bill's leading and 4 were with the Bills tied . All Allen's turnovers when tied occurred in the first half of the games.
Only three of Allen's 2022 turnovers occurred with the Bills trailing:
(1) An interception down 0-7 in the first half against Chicago.
(2) A fumble on first down trailing 21-26 at midfield at the beginning of the 4th quarter in the 2nd game against the Dolphins. Plenty of time left to make up 5 points and in fact the Bills eventually win this game.
(3) An interception ending OT down 3 against the Vikings -- this is the only one that meets the criteria for a do or die situation.
When McDermott keeps saying Allen has to play smarter, it isn't only about sliding at the end of runs.
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34 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
Well the stats are interesting for sure. For as close of a game as it was, I guess it was more of the Bills just shooting themselves in the foot then because it felt like Miami was always moving the ball on us.
Definitely it was the Bill's shooting themselves in the foot. Two ints, a fumble returned for a touchdown, and a 50 yard punt return were the only reasons the Dolphins were in the game
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40 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
I still don't know if his performance against the bills in the playoffs last year give him credit, discredits Tua or just shows that McDaniel has designed an offense that is just really good (or any combination of the three including all of the above).
Thompson was 18 /45 for 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 Int in that playoff game. The entire Dolphin offense had 231 total yards. I really don't think Thompson's performance in that game did anything to discredit Tua.
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6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
Josh has always had that level of patience when the supporting cast let’s him. 90% of the time when Josh gets sloppy and turnover prone is when he has to force the offense to get in gear due to lackluster supporting cast play.
I think this Josh only makes mistakes because he has to be Superman is way overplayed. Sometimes its is true but no where close to 90%,
This was definitely not true of the Jets game. When Allen threw the 2nd interception which basically screwed everything up, the Bills defense was playing great, the Bills were in the middle of a nice drive, the Bills were already in (very) long field goal territory, and it was only second down. In fact, the offense had been clicking since Allen's last interception. In what way was being Superman required at that time?
A large majority of Allen's turnovers last season were when the Bills were leading, often letting the other team back into the game. There is time to take risks and time to play it safe. Allen has to have better awareness of game situation.
I also strongly dislike this an interception is as good as a punt narrative. It is not as good as a punt if there was a better option underneath that might have gotten you a first down -- even if you have to throw it in front of the sticks and hope for YAC.
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2 hours ago, Since1981 said:
It’s somewhat true. 17 had a couple very massive brain farts Vs Jets. They almost won. All the more painful with Wilson…hope it’s turning point. We will learn a lot tomorrow against Washington front DL and how it affects our boy
There's level of brain farts also. Throwing a 40 yard pass into double coverage while falling, with your offense clicking (the Bills were on a nice drive at the time), your team is up by seven, you are in the range of a long field goal, and your opponent is totally inept offensively is about as bad as it can get. It was laughable how many reasons that pass should not have been thrown.
Rodgers feels guilt over Wilson situation
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Yes, he supposedly gave up some money to get his Packer buds in but 5 out of the 6 of his players they brought in will be gone by the beginning of next season and they would get rid of All Lazzard if it wasn't for the cap hit.
I don't see how they can keep an OC who has been historically bad for two seasons.
Just my opinion of course.