Chaos
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Posts posted by Chaos
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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
a lot of people around here, if they're honest with themselves in December, are going to realize that they were too pessimistic.
This has not been an issue for the last five seasons. What has been an issue is that in January a lot of people have to come to realize they were too optimistic.
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Bills will make the playoffs. You can bank on that. Will the dline show up in the playoffs when it matters? who knows; Will players drop multiple catchable passes in the playoffs when it matters? who knows. Will special teams blunder at an inopportune moment in the playoffs? who knows. Will a coaching blunder ***** defeat from the jaws of victory in the playoffs? who knows.
We really need to get "who" in here to tell us what the future holds for the 2024 season.-
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1 hour ago, ddaryl said:
Reid didn't win a SB till he got to his 2nd head coaching job, and after 13 years HC experience in Philly
I'm confident McDermott can do that to.He won the superbowl shortly after getting his first superstar qb. So you kind of miss that the point of the discussion. How many Super Bowls do you think McDermott wins with Baker Mayfield or Kirk Cousins as his QB ?
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35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Ed Oliver is top 10 and he is closer to 5 than 10. After Allen (and finger crossed Milano) the next two closest to elite are Oliver and Taron unless Stef gets back to his best.
I think Elite is more measured as 150 players in the league in terms of impact. Going by position would imply having the leagues best center and 15th best wr is as valuable as having the best wr and 15th best center. And some players transcend positional value. McCafferty is an elite player at a position
1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:Thuney is 100% elite. There is no question about that. Then I think McDuffie (as a slot) and Humphrey at center have a shout too.
They also have elite coaching
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4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:
No rational GM is trading for Mack, so it's "fate" that he should come back to Buffalo to win a SB.
Mack is 33 and has made over $150M. If I was Mack, I would do it on the cheap.
Bills have gone out in the divisional round the last couple of seasons. The core of the defense cut over hill and was cut. Von Miller and Matt Milano are both coming back from serious injuries. If you were Mack, it is not obvious that the Bills are the team most obvious to get to the super bowl.
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3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
The NFL will not disclose their formula. Overthecap seemed to have it nailed down, but not on that pick. Edmunds missed some time this season and playing time factors into the formula. Total speculation on my part, but that may have been it. He was calculated as giving us the lowest 3rd round comp pick - other than the ones given to teams that have minority GMs and HCs hired away.
Edmunds found another way to screw the Bills. ☹️
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So far the moves leave the team with a roster about as good as the roster the season ended with. Nothing to be disappointed or excited about.
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Rather than a restructure, they may be working on an extension
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
They have a way of getting players to their ceiling at an astonishing rate.
Yes, but do they have a process?
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2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:
Agreed. The days are gone for spending money on special teams and d line rotations. It a barbell of 5-7 exceptional players, not a lot of very good in the middle and then cheap raw talent at the bottom to balance the cap.
We tried to go th very good with a few difference makers and it hasn't worked.
I am no great defender of Beane. But I doubt he disagrees with your barbell assessment. The problem is the Bells all broke. Going into 2023, we were supposed to have the elite safety tandem in the entire NFL, Von Miller and Matt Milano on Defense and Allen, Diggs, and Knox on offense. There is your 7. Knox lost his brother, White didn't make it back and Hyde and Miller went down, and that was the end of having 7 elite players. Its not particularly simple to restock 3 to 4 elite players every year.
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2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
He’s certainly a better receiver than Knox, but he hasn’t learned to be an effective blocker yet. That limits his usefulness to the slot while Knox can play in-line. Until Kincaid develops as a blocker those two play different positions, even if they’re both labeled TEs.
Hope this clears things up for the confused. I am not going to do the research, but I am guessing Knox is the highest paid TE2 in the NFL.
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Just now, JGMcD2 said:
Would Schultz be TE1 here? No.
You comment indicates you don't underststand the point of the discussion.
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On 3/9/2024 at 6:35 AM, Doc Brown said:
Strongly disagree on this point.
Lewis in Wild Card Rounds: 0-7. Regular season win percentage: .518
McD in Wild Card Rounds: 4-2. Regular season win percentage: .640
McD is more on par with Tony Dungy's second stint with the Colts. Dungy had trouble getting past the Patriots with an elite QB and McDermott so far get past the Chiefs with an elite QB.
And Bengals.
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32 minutes ago, mannc said:
That's debatable. Kincaid is really more of a WR...I'd say they are 1A and 1B.
There is no debate. Kincaid is TE1.
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41 minutes ago, mannc said:
It's a hard position to learn in the NFL. Plenty of TEs have had their best seasons in their late 20s and early 30s. Knox is 27 and he's a starting caliber TE. If we cut him, we'd need to develop or sign another TE. Dalton Schultz is a comparable player and Houston just signed him for 3 years and $36 million, about what Knox is getting...
Shuzla is TE1. Knox is unquestionably TE2. Not a reasonable comp.
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1 minute ago, mannc said:
Knox is still young and TEs often take a long time to develop. It's entirely possible that his best days are ahead of him. Although it's not a great contract, I don't see much downside in extending him.
He's had 5 years in the league, most of that with getting the coaching attention starters get. it would be remarkable for him to be much different in the future than in the past. It falls only into the the "anything is possible" category.
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Restructure Knox prolongs living with a bad contract. I don’t agree with that.
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The fans who visit any of the NFL fan forums during the off-season are not typical fans. We are all obsessed lunatics.
The national media is not really focused on the pretty small obessed lunatic market.
The fan forums aren't more accurate, they just have a much different general bias than than the national media.
The fan forums including TBD run the full range of possible opinions, so there is a never a subject with 100% alignment of the fans. Because every possible opinion is covered, one of those opinions will always turn out to be right. Once an outcome is known, the bias is "I remember reading some post on TBD that got this correct, wow, we are a really smart group of people. "
The general bias for off-season moves at TBD and other fans sites seems to be able to summarized as follows. In no particular order:
- Response to every veteran cut : was once a good player, but is old and washed now. The move had to be made.
- Response to every FA veteran signed: this guy is clearly an upgrade to the player he is replacing
- Every veteran retained who was not injured the previous season and is under the age of 30: this player will improve and help the team be better next year.
- Every veteran retained who was not injured the previous season who is over the age of 30: this guy has plenty left in the tank
- Every veteran retained whose previous season ended in injury: By mid-season this guy should be back to full speed there is no reason to think he won't get fully back to his form
- Guys on my teams practice squad: This guy just needs a chance, they can become a major contributor given the opportunity
- Guys on other teams practice squads: I don't know who they are, they can't be very good or they wouldn't be on the practice squad.
- Rookies before the draft: I have an opinion on which position is the most important or which players are best. We have to take this player, or fill this position in the first round. The draft is very deep at every other position, and we can find a suitable player at those positions later in the draft.
- Rookies after the draft: These players instantly make us a better team.
Its pretty rare any team makes a move knowing that the move will weaken the team. The moves teams make are intended to make the team better, that is why they are making the moves. People seem to think everyone is on a constant trajectory to improve, so even doing nothing during the off-season convinces us lunatics that the team will be better next year. While only one team wins the super bowl each year, there are probably a dozen fan bases who think their team won the off-season in any given year.
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3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
If you're argument is that McD is on par with Lewis, I will not disagree.
I am not making an argument, just answering a question.
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20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Allen and Henry in the same backfield would be really fun to watch from a fan perspective.
Not saying it should happen or anything about RB value or money or nothing like that. Just that it would be a lot of fun to see.
Bills had the best regular season offense outside the red zone under both Dorsey and Brady.. If Derek Henry had more close to peak season left, the Bills could have the best red zone offene during the regular season. In all honesty, I would expect a bigger impact from Henry, that I expected from the injured Tre White, or Micah Hyde or Von Miller or Jordan Poyer going into 2023. Any would supported relying on those players for 2023, and think Henry is washed heading into 2024 has it backwards in my opinion.
Not only are you 100% correct it would be fun, it would also potentially greatly improve the team. -
I am going with Josh Allen. This is going to be the season that he finally proves himself to the TBD faithful that is a legit franchise QB.
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27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Come playoff time however, the level of competition is markedly better. That's really our issue. Under McD we have yet to beat a 1st through 4th seeded team in six playoff appearances. Is there another coach in modern league history that has been unable to beat anything but wild-card teams in his first 6 trips to the playoffs
Marvin Lewis couldn't beat anyone in the playoffs.
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17 hours ago, The Red King said:
Wasn't Oliver being double-teamed b/c whatever the rest of the line was, wasn't doing jack? Real hard to get to the QB when the O can just focus on one guy.
I am not saying Oliver isn't a decent player, he is. But he is not a difference maker that overcomes obstacles to make plays no matter what.
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4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
On average, a bit less than 50% of rosters turn over from season to season. Players come and go all the time. The success of teams is largely attributable to how they manage the change. The Bills roster has gotten better year over for the past five years. I expect we'll like the free agent deals, and we'll like the draft, and by July we won't be looking at any serious roster weaknesses, let alone holes.
Bills are fine. If the coaches do their jobs, the Bills will be in the playoffs and will perform well.
If the roster is better every year for five years and the coaching is fine why are the results not better year over year?
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Does Beane have anymore significant moves left in his bag of tricks?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Releasing old guys who we carried last year because there contracts were bad, combined with hoping for a fountain of youth. The only "trick" this offseason was getting Miller to take an actual lower salary.