Chaos
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Posts posted by Chaos
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I think is a factor he isn't the factor. This kind of offense where you don't have a single guy who you can rely on to always be open puts an extra premium on decision making. We have to get better than 2023 Josh to give that a shot of working. If it doesn't it won't really be Josh's fault. It will be Beane's fault for giving him the talent he has given him either because the guys couldn't get open or because if Josh again struggles at times with a decision maker it will prove why giving him those elite talented weapons to make those decisions easier matters.
Josh doesn't struggle with decision making.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think there is going to be one guy on this offense that defenses key in on every week like they did on Stef. Certainly not early in the year anyway. In a sense that might give us a little bit of an advantage early on in the season if Josh genuinely can spread the ball around. I expect at some point teams will revert to a "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." But it will take some time for defenses to workout how this offense is going to run and if we can hit the ground ready to roll in week 1 that might even be in our favour.
Josh is not the limiting factor on spreading the ball around. Multiple different people having the ability to get open is the limiting factor on spreading it around. If just throws for 4300 yards again this season and all of those yards to only 1 guy, I would be fine with that.
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10 hours ago, PonyBoy said:
I think the biggest thing we'll see this year is Josh not forcing the ball to satisfy Diggs.
If you're open, you'll get the ball.
My observation was on the rare occassion Allen actually forced a ball to Diggs, it was because Josh so no one open, and played as if he thought Diggs was his best option. I would be curious to see videos or photos of plays where Allen obviously passed up an open reciever to throw to a covered Diggs.
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13 hours ago, finn said:
It's like having the second-best hand in poker
This is a good analogy which can apply to the Bills in quite a few ways.
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4 hours ago, Doc said:
I agree. And I suspect they are loathe to start a rookie center next to a 2nd year LG.
And then the coaches can complain Josh runs too much.
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On 4/29/2024 at 3:41 PM, DrDawkinstein said:
Not even trying to be cute or sarcastic or call you out individually. Just giving some perspective on expectations.
I think we all agree we'd love every pick to be a superstar, especially our 1st rounders. And Beane needs to start hitting more homeruns than singles and doubles.
But being good and consistently picking in the 25-30 range is a much different life than picking in the 7-12 range like we were all used to for so many years.
The Edge guys from 2021:
#12 - Micah Parsons
#18 - Jaelan Phillips
#21 - Kwity Paye
#28 - Payton Turner
#30 - Greg Rousseau
#31 - Odafe Oweh
#32 - Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
Outside of Micah Parsons, I'd argue Groot is the best of that bunch. And even AJE could compete for a spot at the top of that group.
Groot is a solid starter that is still improving. Hopefully that keeps going. AND we wont have to pay him the contract Parsons is about to get.
Good analysis.
I have a general question on team roster building strategy. For the longest time, I defaulted to thinking that early round picks should be used for the highest cost positions (other than QB) which is edge rusher and wide receiver. Recently I have become less sure about that. I am now thinking the early round picks should be used for interior offensive linemen, safeties and tight ends. Here are the reasons:
1)longevity, those are positions which you might be able to get 10 years out of player2) the second contract should affordable compared to the WR and Edge positions. If your drafted WR or edge becomes a star, the second contract is just as expensive as a second contract for any WR or Edge hitting free agency.
3) If you do go edge or WR with the first pick, it should be for a player with instant impact, and you simply assume you can't afford the second contract. Even if Groot is the second best on the list from that class, the gap to Parsons is a chasm. Even if Dallas loses Parsons in free agency, they got great value for the pick during the rookie contract. Its not clear to me Groot on a second contract brings any value that you could not get from other free agents at his position. -
If Josh Allen is in the top 5 in passing yards again, does it matter who caught the passes for those yards.
isn't the real question "which receiver will elevate their game to be a difference maker in a playoff game?" -
Bills have not had any problems during the regular season on offseason for the last five years. The coaches don't know how to elevate the defense in the playoffs against good offenses. Joe Brady will not be solving the main problem.
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Just now, Putin said:
I don’t understand
Ok
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I doubt very many people who post on the board, feel as though they know better who the best offensive players to pick are, better than Brandon Beane.
I doubt very many people who post on the board, feel as though they know better who the best offensive players to pick are, better than Andy Reid/Chiefs.
I think a lot of people suspect the Chiefs know how do do things better than the Bills (based on Super Bowls won recently). I think some of these people are concerned that the Chiefs with Worthy will have better results that the Bills with Coleman. If they stopped to think about it, I suppose that if the Chiefs picked Coleman and the Bills picked Worthy, they would have the exact same concerns.
As fan who thinks there is a .000001 percent chance the NFL is scripted, I am sad going into the season afraid that the Bills are going to lose in the scripted playoffs on a Mahomes to Worthy pass. Mocking the Bills is a pretty joyful thing for a lot of NFL fans (sometimes even Bills fans, because if you don't laugh you have to cry)-
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2 hours ago, Mat68 said:
Only way to slow modern day passing attacks. Having the ability to change pre-post snap looks is how you create mistakes and turnovers. Getting in and out of coverages when offenses use formation and motion to stress defensive principles is how you avoid big plays. Mcdermott got his guy lets see what he does.
Is the complexity other teams can do without, so they can get their best athletes on the field? Or is this for safeties on all teams "if it is the only way"?
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On 4/28/2024 at 11:19 AM, Shaw66 said:
I get the impression that the safety job, as McDermott has designed it, is about the most-challenging position on the defense from a mental point of view, perhaps even more difficult than MLB.
What benefits come from this complexity? Do these benefits outweigh having the best talent on the field?
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What do people think the regimes goal is for 2024? Bills are rebuilding. They are going to play as many young players as starters and first off the bench as possible in order to determine who if any can contribute in 2025.
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1 minute ago, <bills4life> said:
Even if the Bills didn’t make the playoffs this year and Coleman underperforms, I doubt many of those in disagreement would still call for them to be fired. So I guess the next question is at what point should the plug be pulled? Two seasons, three seasons, never? I was done at 13 seconds. I think many are just happy to be relevent and entertained.
Think Jeff Fisher.
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6 hours ago, VW82 said:
Yeah, no.
McBeane have been extended. We just started a rebuild. We’re coming off a sustained track record of success by any measure that isn’t just SB or bust. Some of you guys aren’t living in reality.
Also, why does it feel like so many here just became fans in 2018? Do you guys not remember what two decades of incompetence actually looks like??
Do you remember what five wasted years of one of the top 2 QBs in the NFL looks like?
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1 hour ago, DeepPass said:
Yes! We'll be in contention every year for the foreseeable future and that's GREAT!
What do you mean by "in contention"
4 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:While McDermott gets credit for establishing a winning culture
He gets credit for Josh Allen and Brian Daboll controlling a crappy AFC East until Allen could handle that all on his own.
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15 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
This is a fair take but moderate imo
I think it would be fair to say this draft+offseason gets us further from a super bowl
And for that imo it's a failure
The fault does not lie in this off-season or draft. The fault lies in last seasons off season and draft. The assessment last last year that the oft injured and aged players on the team had it in them to make a Super Bowl run with Ken Dorsey at the offensive helm and with a combined HC/DC in one person was simply a poor assessment. This reset year should have been last year. if it had been the scrap pile of old players everyone is happy to see gone now, may have held some value.
This years moves are the consequences of last year’s decisions.
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Since Beane has idenfited 2024 as a "transition" year, all of the decisions need to be made in that context. Signing a Vet WR on a one-year deal does not fit the context of "transition year" at all.
I think his comment referred to the UDFA they signed Xavier Johnson Jr. -
Call it what you want, rebuild/reset etc. , but 2024 is not a year the Bills front office is targeting a deep playoff run. In expericened OC, in experienced DC, HC without a deep playoff run resume, new players across the roster. Its pretty much Josh being good enough to win the AFC East by himself, and hoping for some random playoff magic. Hopefully this season can help set up 2025 for a deep playoff run.
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Are we really going to call big ballin Beane a Wizard, but create a backup plan to blame josh allen for coaching hires and draft picks that don't work out?
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25 minutes ago, Process said:
No idea who he is but depth at LB was a need.
Hate on this draft all you want but it just makes sense. Bills are filling in the roster with a bunch of young players, like they needed too, and have set themselves up with a boat load of picks next year as well. Got starters at WR, S and maybe C too.
There is no reason to hate on the draft. The Bills came into the offseason in worse cap shape than their primary competetors and more aging players to cut than their primary competetors. The things to hate on more relate to the position we started the offseason in. Hopefully the rebuilding doesn't take longer than 2024.
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31 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Pretty surprised he's still on the board. Though it makes me a bit happy we didn't burn pick 33 on a guy that's still there at 71 like so many wanted to.
If the Bills passed on Coleman are you certain he would not still be on the board at 71?
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9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
People need to explore the relationship they have with speed. Gabe was our home run hitter with 4.54. Diggs was highly effective with deeper routes early in his time here. Most people aren't flying by DB's at the NFL level. What is the playing speed? Coleman has elite physical skills. Size and vertical. He has playing speed. He's not a guy that is all legs when he runs. He has very nice agility in and out of his breaks. Nacua ran a 4.57, he's far more athletic than Nacua. The NFL isn't only about speed. Josh has never had a true contested catch monster like this. It's going to be a blast watching those two in the red zone.
I think the "speed" the Bills (and most teams) are missing is the combination of quickness and speed exemplified by peak Tyreek Hill, that allows teams to run very low risk, yet high reward plays. I don't think most people have a vision of someone streaking down the field outrunning everybody on a regular basis.
Personally I don't think the Bills have any issue "moving the chains", ie advancing to the redzone. The only scoring problems the Bills have are due to short field goal range and missed field goals that a pure limitation of Bass, and an inability to convert at the very highest rates in the endzone. Coleman could very well help with the red zone conversion rate. If Coleman is not a difference maker in the red zone, he will just be a JAG WR.
Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
AFC East is a bad division except for the Bills. Only coaching incompetence could lead to not winning the division. But the coaching staff will do enough to win the division and most people will hail this as a great feat. At this point, the expectation would be that the coaches don't know how to win playoff games against the better playoff teams, so no reason to expect 2024 season to be the season for that.