Chaos
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Posts posted by Chaos
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Part of football success is management, including player development. Teams that draft early every year, tend to change their management. Bills fans remain confused by the epic failure of not truly changing their management during the drought era. Most teams (including the current era Bills) are not Russ Brandon level incompetent. No need to worry about "rewarding" poorly managed teams.
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23 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:
Josh is a stud at QB. He is top 5 no doubt.
But the "other" fans in the NFL think he is rough around the edges. His accuracy shows, at times, that he is inconsistent which we all see. He can't hit the long ball with "touch" is another comment I hear a lot. And he doesn't see the field as well as other top QB's, hence the missed open WR's we see in many games. But he can ball! And I'll take that all day.
Now just win one baby!
What people call “lack of accuracy “ for Josh means “not alway perfect “. He is among the most accurate QBs in the NFL.
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14 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:
If he was a passenger, then you're right. I have not heard anything about him being a passenger. The cynic in me notes that of course he was a passenger, and of course the driver didn't have any more than two drinks, if he had a drink at all. Nobody ever has more than two drinks before a DWI, and rich dudes who were present in their vehicle at the scene of a bad accident but who have less monied friends with them never were driving the car.
My understanding that there is dash cam video of him exiting the passenger side of the vehicle after the crash.
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5 hours ago, SectionC3 said:
Doubtful. LE comes down hard on runners to discourage the behavior. They’ll get his credit cards, lean in his friends, and maybe even pull phone records to get a bead on where he was and if he was drinking before the accident. They’re gonna work this one.
My understanding is he was a passenger. Why would his drinking or not drinking matter? I think it is legal to be a drunk passenger.
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22 hours ago, FireChans said:
Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?
No. Most people understand the difference between a linebacker and a quarter in terms of risk / reward. Maybe someday everyone will grasp that.
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12 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:
Yup I think that’s why Beane was pissed about it tooEdmunds remains a cautionary tale on trading up.
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For anyone confused, the likely historical comp is Jeff Fischer
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I wasn't the one comparing him to Lewis. I was just correcting a factual inaccuracy.
Did not mean to suggest you were the one making the comparison. Just expressing my bafflement at why anyone would. The more common bafflement is comparing to drought era rosters teams who competed against the Brady led Patriots as relevant.
13 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:This was an interesting post and i enjoy posts like this. But with all of these questions, I think that it would help (or at least help me) if you ended it with some sort of summary. It is hard to see what it is you are driving at.
Thanks once again for the post and I'm pretty sure that the issue is mine, not yours lol.
Summary : Each fan has their own expectations. If you don't align on the expectations first, its impossible to have a rational discussion regarding whether or not to make coaching changes.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one.
- I am not saying McDermott should be fired
- I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott
I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point.
In all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations. In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year. If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable.
In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal. Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL. Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year. So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years. What are the expectations for that situation. In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had. McDermott has delivered on that expectation. But not much more than that.
Question 1: What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the Bills have had over the last five years
This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott. It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations. Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations." This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2.
Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott.
Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl". But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.
Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster. So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.
Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question
For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.
Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?From a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time. But that does not answer the question of how many seasons. (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )
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57 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
And, similar to Andy Reid in Philly....Marvin Lewis did NOT get fired while the Bengals were notching 5 consecutive winning seasons and going to playoffs every year.
Marvin Lewis was fired after 3 consecutive losing seasons with no playoffs, 6-9-1, 7-9, 6-10
Strange how that works
So your saying it was a wise decision to hang on too Marvin Lewis for those losing seasons?
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10 minutes ago, DJB said:
Unless it’s for Harrison, Nabers or Odunze then no
Only for Harrison
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
I think you're wrong.
Your evidence that he's feeling the pressure is based on you evaluation of his performance in a press conference. He's ALWAYS been bad in press conferences. He's uncomfortable, he doesn't like it, and he isn't good at figuring out how to give useful answers to questions without saying too much.
It's ridiculous, meaning it's fair to subject you to ridicule, for you to compare McDermott to Dick Jauron. McDermott has built a perennial top-five favorite to win the Super Bowl, and Jauron went 7-9 three years in a row before the team fell apart. There is NO meaningful comparison.
You're free to not like McDermott, but you're not going to convince anyone who knows football. The 49ers aren't firing Shanahan and the Bills aren't replacing McDermott.
There is meaningful comparison. Due to Allen the bar of expectations for McDermott is higher. McDermott is unreasonably calling people narrow minded who want a higher bar than he wants. Maybe his lower bar is narrow minded.
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1 minute ago, Gregg said:
Bottom line the core around Allen is changing.
Do you expect this new core to be better than the old core?
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22 minutes ago, Gregg said:
I want to see how the draft goes. Window #1 to win a Super Bowl with Allen has closed. Window #2 is now opening. They need to get younger and add more skill especially around Josh on offense. I am looking forward to the draft with 11 picks. Hopefully Beane can hit a HR with his picks.
Why do you think there are multple windows?
If there are multiple windows, why did window #1 close?
Why is window #2 opening?
What do you think will be different between window #1 and window #2?-
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6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Players kept stepping up?
I mean, yeah. But it showed up. How did the DBs look against the Chiefs? The LBs?
We weren't the same defense as we'd been in the first 6 - 8 games, we just weren't.
Bills defense was a bit disappointing the entire season. Four of their worst efforts were in the first 9 weeks. Patriots, Broncos (12 men on the field being the seasons low point), Jaguars, Bengals games.
The defense did let the team down in the playoffs as well. But that was not a new thing. -
Well we finished top 8 again last year. Most any roster with Josh Allen at QB, is a top 8 roster. I think the real question is "Have we taken a step forward?"
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
In the AFC? At least the Chiefs, Bengals, Texans and Ravens. I think we have been a top 3 roster in the AFC the last 4 seasons. We are now 5th or 6th IMO.
Thank you for the feedback. I won't argue one by one, but it seems like the Chiefs have gaps at receiver, and in the secondary as much as the Bills, as well as issue on the offensive line.
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Talent. Edge rush. Receiving. Secondary.
It seems to me all teams have gaps in talents. Which teams do you think have fewer gaps?
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21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I think an AFCCG in 2024 would probably be a bit of overachievement.
Why? what is lacking?
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7 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Durrrr if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern......wait for it....they would have started him at LG
Was and will are different.
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9 hours ago, Beck Water said:
So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense. Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively.
But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship"
Other metrics that should be considered:
-# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?)
-# of turnovers
In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer)
So that's not a factor.
However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall)
Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers. Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more.
Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring.
You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem.
The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023.
So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap.
TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.
Disagree. Also, fundamentally none of the Bills playoff problems are the fault of the offensive talent.
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17 hours ago, folz said:
That is huge for the team...keeping the chains moving, something we have missed since Beasley left
KIncaid had a fine rookie season, and projects to be a top tier tight end in the future.
However, the "moving the chains problem since Beasely" is a myth, based on statistics,
In 2021 the Bills had the fifth fewest punts in the NFL (chiefs had least). In 2022 the Bills had the fewest punts in the NFL. In 2023 the Bills had the second fewest punts in the NFL. The Bills did not have problem moving the chains.
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5 hours ago, H2o said:
Greed. Most self-absorbed billionaires are driven by it.
Envy is America's biggest problem.
Police searching for Rashee Rice in connection to accident - Now officially charged
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Both were handled the same way and for the exact same reason. Optimal decision for the Business's finanancial bottom line.