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Chaos

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    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I am surprised, that no one has really challenged the equal breakdown among the three pieces of HC QB and Everything else.  The people who are confident Defense makes Champions, or everything has to first be built out from the trenches might want to disagree.  

    My bias was QB was more important than head coach previously.   But among the rarefied group of multiple Super Bowl winning head coaches, several did it with less than elite QBs, and with more than one QB.  Only two QBs won super bowls with more than one Head Coach,  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I now lean towards thinking coaching is the most important.   Obviously the mix of QB and Everything else can be radically different.  The 1985 bears would make a case for busting the limit and getting a 50 on "everything else" with a 25 QB and a 30 Coach.  

     

    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

     

    Yeah and I'd place Mahomnes closer to Allen and Jackson too.

     

    I also question McVay having the 2nd best coaching score.  Yes been to 2 different SB with 2 different QB's but in between no so great.  Since last SB win, this is first year they won division and that was more the other teams lost than Rams doing great.

    If the goal is to get to and win the super bowl the Rams/McVays wide gamut strategy seems more effective than building to be consistently above average without the ability to hit the highest peaks. 

    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Sojourner said:


    I’m not critiquing what you’ve put together, just curious how you’re assigning the 40 points is all. Is the 4 broken down into sections or is just a general strength value you are applying to your thoughts?

     

    I appreciate different perspectives and am always curious how someone has achieved theirs. How did Mahomes reach a 33 value? Josh a 40? Lamar a 37? And so on…

    I just established 2023 Chiefs as 100 to pivot around.  three parts, 33,33,34 =100, then adjusted the components leaving Reid, elevating Mahomes, lowering everything else.   Since the 2023 Chiefs were not the greatest super bowl winner ever, their needs to be room to grow.  I arbitrarily picked 120 as the point to grow two, and then divided it equally to say 40 is the peak. 

    Just now, GunnerBill said:

    I have no idea what this means. 

    I believe you. 

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    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

    So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

     

    Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 8 pro bowlers outside of the QB vs. 1 for the bills. 

    Playoff history suggests Lamar and Allen are quite different. I ranked Lamar very high based on 2024 regular season results. I think the perception of Lamar is higher because of the supporting cast, in particular Derrick Henry.  With all due respect to James Cook who had a great season.  Coaches are not worrying nearly as much about defending him as Henry.  Everything else as I mentioned, includes home field advantage for the playoffs.  That favors the Bills.  And overall I think the Bills roster is not that far behind the Ravens. I don't put much stock in pro bowl selections.  Ravens defense has holes too.  How would you score the Ravens vs the Bills. 

    2 minutes ago, zow2 said:

    Without really analyzing this,  if Allen is given a 40,  there's no way Lamar is 37 and Mahomes 33.  It would be more equal.

     

    We all know playoff Mahomes can be a different guy too.


    Yes that is why I closed the original post mentioning past is not prologue, and taking specifically into account the possibility of playoff Mahomes. 

     

    1 hour ago, Chaos said:

    Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 



     

     

     

    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

    my opinion. 

    It ridiculous hard to win a super bowl.  Since 1966 there have been 314 Head coaches in the NFL.  Only 35 have won a Super Bowl.  Five Head coaches have won a full 1/3 of all Super Bowls between them.  14 have won almost 2/3s.

    image.thumb.png.6ec6e1f13a46bc85a5fab23e2e86ddc8.pngWinning CoachWinsRunning Total


    Similar Story for QBs:

    image.thumb.png.86557fda7a49d6132f5c77162f6295cf.png

     

    In my opinion everyone on the HC list above, except Siefert (who inherited Walsh's team and system) demonstrated coaching greatness during the careers. 
    That is not quite as obvious on the QB list.  Griese, Eli Manning, and Plunkett would all be sort of forgetable other than their Super Bowl wins.  Notwithstanding statistics, the rest of the QBs on the list demonstrated greatness. 

    • Like (+1) 2

    Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Chaos

    Super Bowl Winning Formula
     

    This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas:

    1. Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. 
    2. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. 
    3. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. 


    Scoring System

    • Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength.
    • A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total.
    • The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era
    • The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else).
    • 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun)
       

    2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions)

    • Andy Reid (Coach): 33
    • Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39
    • Everything Else: 28
    • Total: 100
       

    2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis

    Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula:
     

    image.thumb.png.6e40eb1c76145c8d3507648597560888.png

     

     

    Coaching Tier Notes
     

    • Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best
    • Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. 
    • Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier.
    • Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank  Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall


    Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 

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    Joe Mixon - FP - LP - DNP

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Logic said:

    Of course.

    I get that the 1 seed always faces the lowest remaining seed, but it would be nice if the Chiefs had to face at least a LITTLE bit of a challenge this weekend.

    Oh well. 

    Texans are the fourth seed.  There is no system where 1 does not play 4 and two does not play 3 when the top four all make it to the semi-finals.  The absurity is the sole bye. 

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    NFL HC's That Have Won Super Bowls & Their Tenure With Those Teams .

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, T master said:

     

    They are waiting in the wings to pounce !! As you have pointed out when the Bills are playing good every one is on board including the haters, but if he stumbles at all you can bet they will come out in droves ...

    I don't know if "waiting to pounce" is really accurate. A lot of people have been quite vocal, that if the Bills can't  advance past the divisional round again this year, they will want to see a coaching change. 

    Tua gets the bag - $53M a year

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

    IMO, this is indicative of how Mike McDaniel viewed Tua's (and their porous O-line's) weaknesses, and how he tried to cover them up. Quick, precision-timing routes. Get the ball out of Tua's hands as fast as possible. It was the basis of their passing offense, and why they needed fast receivers like Hill, Waddle, and Achane. It's also what the league figured out about them, and why they've been mediocre since '23-- bump them off their timing routes, and their offense collapses. 

     

     

     

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    NFL HC's That Have Won Super Bowls & Their Tenure With Those Teams .

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

    Only 8 years?  with the best QB in the NFL?  with a top Offense and Defense each year?

     

    the average tenure for an NFL HC is 3.2 years.

     

     

    McVay won it within 5 (another SB before that within 2).

    Arians won it within 2.

    Tomlin within 3.

    Walsh within 3.

    Johnson 2 within 5 years.

    Vermeil within 3.

    Payton within 4.

    Carroll within 4.

    Kubiak in 1 year.

    Billick within 2 years.

    Harbaugh within 5.

    Gruden immediately.

    Seifert twice within 5.

    Holmgren within 4.

    Dungy within 5.

     

    That's a lot of HC's with rings in less than 7 years.  Sure, some "inherited" solid rosters...but the Bills have provided McD with solid rosters for several seasons now...

     

    The last head coach / QB combo to be on a team as long as McDermott/Allen before winning a super bowl, was Madden/Stabler in the 70's.  

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    Rostered player with the most drought years

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

    Now that the Bills are on the verge of their first SB, it seems fitting to invite to the SB parade that player who suffered the longest during the drought.   Is there even a way to figure this out?   Is is Brian Moorman?  Fred Jackson?   Kyle W doesn't count bc he was on a playoff team.  

     

    Doesn't necessarily need to be a starter.   Would be interesting to know who this was. 

    On the verge?

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