Chaos
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Posts posted by Chaos
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Probably come to the realization that the realization of a 6 decade obsession has no actual impact on any
meaningful aspect of my life. Then start worrying about how the Bills can use the upcoming draft to repeat.
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At the time, 13 seconds was an acute condition, like a bullet wound. It was painful and traumatic. However, expectations were for a full recovery. We now suffer from a chronic condition of having "reasons" every year for not getting past the divisional round. There is no actual known cure for this chronic condition.
Some people either continue to have expectations for a better result next year, fueled more by hopes and prayers than expecations for important strategic, coaching or personnel changes. Others cope by having lowered expecations and satisifaction that "making the playoffs every year is pretty darn good, certainly better than the drought". Others are just bummed out. All of these responses to the situation are reasonable, there really is no "right way" for fans to feel about the situation.-
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2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
McD will be the Defensive game day caller. Babich will the his Defensive Curtis Modkin. (or Frazier, for that matter). Brady will be what he was this past season---OC..
Just get in line and support. Stop your bellyaching.
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Our future oline coach
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Since there is no rush to win, I think a good idea would be to have a couple of "raffles" each year, where the winner gets to call the plays for the game that week. This would give hundreds of thousands of people the chance live out their dream of coaching an NFL game. This seems much fairer than selfishly worrying about one guy winning a super bowl before he has reached the appropriate age.
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We have proven they we are a top 8 team in the NFL.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea Mitchell is good. And he has arguably the best hands in the class.
After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need. Maybe just fan frustration. But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations.
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I find this combination of loyalty and the perception of another fanbase's loyalty fascinating:
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6 minutes ago, Simon said:
This is patently absurd and bears no relation to reality
Detroit's success rate this season on 4th/3 or less is over 77%
The first one was 45; I think the second one was around 48.
In both instances, both kicking and going were acceptable options; neither call was "wrong" in either instance.
Unless of course Badgley was struggling in pregame to make 45yrd kicks on that ***** grass; if that was the case, then going for it was absolutely correct.
From my perspective, I would have gone for the first one to keep pressure on SF, maintain possession to burn clock and hunt for a TD that might finish the game.
The second one I would probably have kicked to tie the game (again, dependent on how much Badgley was struggling pregame).
The word "probably" is pretty critical in understanding my post. What we do know is that fully adjusted for the game pressure of the NFL Championship game, the Lions are not very good at converting 4th and 3.
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12 minutes ago, eball said:
Did you watch the football games or not? Which offense looked more competent and reliable?
The one that did not have a fetish about making sure Josh Allen did not run. That seemed like the only meaningful difference between the two offenses.
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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:
There is nothing cautious about McD, he is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL. This idea he is cautious is a myth that started over the fact he had a defensive background when he was hired and then not having much to work with on offense his first couple seasons.
The punt against the Bengals in the playoffs amplified this belief. I am still bitter about that call.
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10 minutes ago, Logic said:
I agree with the general premise of this post.
I will go further and say that, in my opinion, Sean McDermott does a great job balancing analytics and "feel" and making good decisions in high pressure moments. He's routinely in the top three of the "goes for it on 4th when he should" chart, but doesn't allow himself to be a prisoner to it. There have been games when we, as fans, would prefer a little more aggression, but he trusts the way his defense is playing, so he's a touch more conservative, and it has paid off more often than not. Then, more recently -- especially in the second half of this season and in the playoffs -- he has made aggressive decisions when the analytics are 50-50, because he senses that his offense is hot or could use the jolt of confidence that such a decision sometimes gives a team.
I do not think McDermott is a perfect coach. Far from it. But credit where credit is due, I think he does a great job balancing analytics and game feel and, more often than not, making intelligent and "correct" decisions.Maybe. But he does not seem to understand when to call timeouts, and when wasting a time out is likely to create a problem later on.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
After all, if you could dial the clock back to Reid coaching Donovan McNabb, you'd find all sorts of Eagle fans saying Reid never will win
Our you suggesting that McNabb is a Mahomes level QB?
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22 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
Any chance you could re-word the thread title so that is makes sense from a grammatical perspective?
Thank you.Yes, there is a chance.
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6 hours ago, Bob Jones said:
Sounds like you're saying that JA has no room for improvement. I totally disagree with the latter.
He definitely could use help with how to read what defenses are doing, and also with his decision-making (regarding where to throw the ball). Plenty of All-22 film from plenty of games this past season make the latter fairly obvious.
No meaningful room for improvement in terms of actual productivity. Best is best. The entire rest of the team lags so far behind our QB play, its absurd to worry about QB play.
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I am a huge believer in making decisions based on analytics. But I don't thinnk football head coaches in general have demonstrated mathematical genius ( I am not saying I am). The 4th and 3 play call with a 14 point lead in the NFC championship game, I think is an example of not properly understanding the math.
I will start with an analogy. Imagine a dice game, where the rules allow you to pick either of the following situations A) rolling 1-5 pays you even money B) rolling a 6 pays you 100-1. If I tell you you get to roll the die 50 times, the expected return for A is that you would roll 1 to 5 5/6 or 42 times $42 dollars (assuming a $1 bet each time and the expected return on B is that you would roll 6 eight times and get a return of $800. Any rational person would select B as there choice. While the numbers are extreme this is similar to the 'analytics' of going for it on fourth and 3 on the opponents 20 yard line. Over a large number of interations, the correct statistical decision is to go for it on fourth and 3.
Now imagine if after your fifty rolls, you have collected you $800 based on your selection of B. You made the wise decision. However, lets say the rules of the game change (like in the second half of an NFC championship game). Now there is only 1 roll of the die. If you roll a 1-5 you get to keep your $800. If you roll a 6, your $800 grows to $900. A rational person would always select A in this scenario. However I feel as though Dan Campbell was confused by the excitement of winning with analytics over the course of a 17 game decision, and tried to apply a season long anaytic concept to a very small remaining set of plays. And he made a mistake. Not quite as extreme as my dice example. But a field goal from that spot is probably 90% plus successful (2.7 points) , and a conversion was probably 70% likely (4.9 points expected value, if we assume the conversion leads to a TD 100% of the time). The difference in expected points between 2.7 and 4.9 was not worth increasing the likelhood of zero from 10 to 30%.
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McDer
29 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:Not sure why we continue to compare to these teams they were stacked with Talent outside of Josh Allen and perhaps Stephon Diggs where is this Elite Talent.
Where is the wide receiver Talent where are the multiple Pro Bowl defensive players or offensive players or wide receivers?
This team was ***** for decades McDermott turned it all around and this team is close we're a few pieces away.
McDermott took over an 8-9 team. He went 9-8 the next year. Then got Josh Allen. The only meaningful comparison to the drought era coaching is that he was 1 game better than the comparable roster Rex Ryan had the year before.
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3 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:
Reid is a class of his own with 20+ years as a head coach.
Taylor enjoyed a stacked Cincy with years of first round picks huge WR talent with the best college wr qb combo ending up on the same team.
McD showed up to a team with 19 years without a playoff, a terrible cap situation with a team of veteran underachievers.
Show me what Zach does next year with no tee Higgins, and no offensive coordinator.
We’re the chiefs rams and bengals perennial champs when their current head coaches took over ?
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11 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
With the Bills not learning and just giving Josh what he wants in the OC coach again, they need to find a QB coach that is going to get into Josh's brain. A guy that has been around for a while, and isn't looking to baby Allen.
One guy I'm wondering if he will do it as a "favor", is Frank Reich. He obviously doesn't need a job, but wondering if he would come back here to try and get us over the hump.
These last two hires at QB coach, Dorsey and Brady, have been young guys that were looking to eventually be head coaches. We don't need to go in that direction again.
Allen is the most productive QB in the NFL. Full Stop. Perfection js not achievable. Full Stop. The least problematic position on the Bills the last five years had been QB.
Just stop.
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1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:
Ben Johnson will be the Bills HC in 2025-2026
By many accounts Ben Johnson will be Washington's head coach starting in 2024.
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Campbell and McDermott have pretty different public personas. There teams play with different styles. Would you trade McDermott for Campbell. Do you think the majority of Lions fans would trade Campbell for McDermott?
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11 minutes ago, somnus00 said:
His job security, and millions of dollars, is not based on him hiring a puppet
Or intead of a puppet, you could insert the word scapegoat.
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4 minutes ago, FireChans said:
He would be. Are you agreeing with me?
There were a lot of people on this board who were convinced Doug Whaley would be snapped up if the Bills released him. I think McDermott would get another HC job eventually. Not sure about "tomorrow". But mostly not sure the future is predictable on these sort of things.
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Joe Flacco got it right.
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Bills Receivers worst in drops in the NFL since Brady took over
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
As a Brady, he is responsible for inflating the footballs. But he is not good at it. He keeps over inflating them.