Chaos

Notwithstanding the Patriots success in an a cold weather market (I have never heard anyone say their dynasty was in any way due to a weather advantage). There really is no evidence the Super Bowl winners disproportionately come from teams without domes and a weather advantage. Chiefs (2), Rams, Bucs won the last four.

27. Lukas Van Ness - EDGE Iowa 59. Calijah Kancey - DT Pitt 91. Matthew Bergeron - OT Syracuse 130. Ricky Stromberg - OC Arkansas 137. Bryce Ford-Wheaton - WR West Virginia 205. Max Duggan - QB TCU The first three players in this list are shown being drafted dramatically later than the consensus for them. If each is as advertised they won't be available at those pick positions. If they are available it raises the question of why did they fall so far. None of those guys is exactly under the radar. But if they just slipped because everyone is drafting on need and ignoring BPA, all would be good picks at those spots. Stromberg looked sluggish and doughy to me when watching the combine on TV. Maybe not fair to assess him on that. But I liked him a lot going into the combine and not so much after watching. But I am certainly not an expert. Ford-Wheaton seems like a great athlete. He is probably most Athletic starting WR to only have 3 100 yard receiving games in three years as a starter. Seems a very worthwile project. But the lack of actual production is concerning. On the other end of the spectrum, there are a couple of guys Xander Hutchinson and Charlie Jones who are far athletic but had great production at the WR spot. For later round draft picks I would be curious if "great athletes" or "good football players (based on production) translate more often to NFL success. Duggan also has been in the spotlight, and underwhelms pundits as a potential NFL QB. If I was grabbing back up QB with the 205 pick, I would take Clayton Tune over Duggan.

LB seems to be a devaluated position by the NFL as a whole, but it also seems the Bills coaches, based on their frequent discussion of Edmunds' importance the last several years, value the LB position much higher than the NFL as whole. In either case based on college production and measurables, it is quite possible Jack Campbell is the best player available if he is there at 27. Separately NFL.com draft tracker grades Drew Sanders as the ninth highest graded player in the draft. Again it is quite possible the highest graded / BPA on the board at 27 is a linebacker. Since its also a position of need for the Bills Campbell, or Sanders would be logical choice, and not a reach based on BPA. It is similar to the dilemma some have with picking an RB at 27, no matter how good "because in the modern NFL" its not an important position. My personal bias is to first worry about protecting Allen with the Bills pick at #27. I also would be happy with certain WR's, LBs, and TE's with that pick. The Bills will have legitimate solid choices at 27. The added complexity is that the percieved drop off from the linebackers who will be available at 27, vs those likely available at 59 seems to be almost a cliff. (I think the same is true for the WR spot). But the drop off from 27 to 59 for the remaining OT's, interior lineman or TE's is a more gradual dropoff. Baring some really lucky trading or incredible draft luck, it is unlikely the Bills can land an instantly starting solid MLB and an instant starting WR2 that is an upgrade on Davis in the draft. I do think average luck, and using the first pick on LB or WR, gives the Bills the best chance to land three starters in the draft. Picking OT first (which is my preference) likely means adding a starter at OT, and one other starter for a total of 2.

That ok, I am not going to focus on the negatives.

The concept here is to optimize him. It is perfectly reasonable to discuss what his ceiling is. Gronk always had a great oline. Kelce had his best year in 2022 with probably the best online he has had to play next too. Maybe it matters. Maybe it does not. But I don't limit Knox's ceiling just yet.

You are responding to the poster with the most ironic name on TBD. You also left out the fact that Allen had a meaningful injury.

Fans seem to prefer Darnell Wright over Harrison by a pretty big margin. Not sure why.

I think you mean Oliver for Reid and a 2nd.

Going off script here with multiple moves, but if something like this could happen, would it make you happy or mad?

Very far. As it says in the original post, all the way until the first round next year.

I find Darnell Washington intriguing. I think he could be the perfect pairing with Knox.

You gotta vote. Wright is losing. 😀

I think Dawson is designed more like a reciever than a blocker. Think TE Jimmy Graham.

Dawson Knox is paid like a star player. He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much. A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer. 1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive 2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver 3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level? I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will.

Shamelessly bumping (again) for more votes, would like to get to 100. Feel free to tell me why Jack Campbell is the wrong choice. Likewise tell me why Darnell Wright is the wrong choice.

It appears that Allen is by far the best “teammate” in Bills history. He is like 10 wins above replacement but never ***** about crap protection , second rate offensive weapons and HC/DC/defense choking. So he becomes a lightning rod for ridiculous criticisms. He is the only player in the NFL judged against “perfect” on a regular basis.

Drew Sanders LB Darnell Wright OT

Maybe just keep it simple and trade up for Skoronksi and know that we got a starter in the first round to help protect Josh.

it seems the majority opinion is that none of the top 3 LBs (Campbell, Sanders, Simpson) will be available at 59. There seems to be some possiblity that a starting OT could be had at 59 (Mauch, Beregon)

Oliver isn't worthis his 10.7 million cap hit. Who is going to give up picks and absorb his cap hit for a 1 year over priced player who becomes a free agent next year.

Reading comprehension is a must. I don’t hate campbell but he is not even my first round choice. I prefer someone to block for Allen.

Seems unrealistic. Campbell and Johnson wiil be gone before those picks. There will also likely be better recievers than Mims at 55.

Interesting post. Good information

Have you heard of this guy Aaron Rodgers?